Week 15 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2008): 6-8 (-$980)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2008): 4-10 (-$2,690)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2008): 9-7 (-$170)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2008): 6-9-1 (-$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2008): 10-6 (+$1,170)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2008): 7-9 (-$80)

NFL Picks (Reg Season 2008): 106-99-3 (+$1,380)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 15, 4:20 a.m. ET.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

New Orleans Saints (7-6) at Chicago Bears (7-6)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Bears -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Bears -3.
Thursday, 8:15 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Bears.

Injuries: Saints: OUT: RB Aaron Stecker (IR), TE Jeremy Shockey, TE Mark Campbell (IR), OT Jammal Brown, DE Charles Grant (IR), DT DeMario Pressley (IR), ILB Mark Simoneau (IR), CB Mike McKenzie (IR), CB Tracy Porter (IR), CB Aaron Glenn (IR), S Kevin Kaesviharn (IR), K Martin Gramatica (IR), KR Courtney Roby (IR). Bears: OUT: OT Fred Miller (IR), DT Dusty Dvoracek (IR), CB Nathan Vasher (IR), CB Zackary Bowman (IR), S Brandon McGowan (IR).

Well, the good news is that I hit my two top picks last week. The bad news is that I went 7-9 and lost .8 Units. That’s pretty much been the story this year. I’ve won most of my high-unit selections (58 percent on 4-5 Unit plays; 3-1 in NFL Picks of the Month), but I’ve gotten hit hard with errant 1-, 2- and 3-Unit picks. Hey, it’s better than the other way around, but I wish I could get something to go my way once in a while. I’ve been rocked by so many bad beats this year. Yet, when I’m in position for a backdoor cover (Rams, Jaguars), it just doesn’t happen. Stupid Marc Bulger even threw a pick-six. And yes, I’d like some whine with my cheese, thank you.

Part of the problem has been the reversal of consistent trends. For example, the Panthers, once a sloppy home team, are undefeated as hosts this year. The Saints, meanwhile, have been awful on the road despite covering most of their games as visitors the past couple of seasons.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Just look at Drew Brees’ numbers for example. He’s a different quarterback on the road. Outside of the Superdome, Brees has actually thrown more interceptions (10) than touchdowns (7). That’s a stark contrast compared to his home figures (19 TDs, 4 INTs).

Chicago’s defense should be able to keep this trend going. I know the Bears don’t have much of a pass rush, but it’s not like Drew Brees gets sacked much anyway (10 sacks). However, Chicago ranks 10th versus aerial attack and owns 19 interceptions this season.

Meanwhile, Pierre Thomas won’t be able to run as well this week. He gashed Atlanta’s 28th-ranked rush defense for 102 yards. Chicago is eighth against the run.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The great news for Bears fans is that Kyle Orton looked decent for the first time since coming off his injury. Granted, Jacksonville’s defense is anemic, but Orton was able to go 20-of-34, 219 yards, two touchdowns and a pick.

Luckily for Orton’s progression, the Saints aren’t much better against the pass. Look for him to have another solid outing.

Meanwhile, Matt Forte should have another great performance on the ground and through the air. New Orleans’ rush defense isn’t terrible, but it won’t be able to contain Forte.

RECAP: I touched on this earlier. The Saints, 39-26 against the spread on the road entering this season, have only one victory away from the Superdome. That was at Kansas City.

Speaking of the Superdome, the Saints put everything they had on the line last week, and barely came away with a victory against the Falcons. Can they match that intensity versus equally desperate Chicago?

I don’t think so – especially considering New Orleans has to travel on a short work week.

The Psychology. Edge: Bears.

Do or die for both teams, though the Bears could have more energy because it seemed like the Saints put everything on the line last week. Plus, traveling on a short work week is pretty difficult.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 55% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 42-29 ATS on the road since 2000.

Saints are 26-18 ATS as a road underdog since 2000.

Drew Brees is 29-18 ATS as a dog.

Bears are 6-8 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 22 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Bears 31, Saints 23
Bears -3 (3 Units) — Push; $0
Over 45.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Bears 27, Saints 24

Bears-Saints Recap

Buffalo Bills (6-7) at New York Jets (8-5)
Line: Jets by 7.5. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Jets -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Jets -9.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Injuries: Bills: OUT: OLB Angelo Crowell (IR), ILB John DiGiorgio (IR), CB Ashton Youboty (IR). DOUBTFUL: DE Aaron Schobel. QUESTIONABLE: CB Jabari Greer. Jets: OUT: RB Jesse Chatman (IR), ILB Brad Kassell (IR).

Vegas was happy to see the two most lop-sided bet games go in their favor, but overall, teams getting at least 65 percent of the action were 8-6 last weekend. Most sportsbooks were close to breaking even with those results. Here’s the NFL Week 14 Vegas Money Breakdown.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: One game Vegas lost on was the Bills-Dolphins contest in Toronto. And man, I feel stupid for laying a point with the Bills with J.P. Zohan at quarterback. Zohan was awful, going 13-of-27 for 123 yards, a pick and three fumbles. At least he led the team in rushing with 53 yards!

Zohan didn’t have much time to throw, as the Dolphins’ pass rush made things really difficult for him. The Dolphins registered four sacks on Zohan, and no matter who starts for the Bills in this contest, that number seems about right for the amount of sacks the Jets will compile on Sunday. New York has 37 sacks on the season.

Marshawn Lynch did nothing against Miami – 13 carries, 31 yards – and could have similar problems in this contest. The Jets are fourth versus the run.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s amazing that Chad Pennington has more passing yards than Brett Favre this season. Favre was remarkable during the Jets’ two-game road trip where they knocked off New England and Tennessee as underdogs (I’ll touch more on that later), but if you take away those two contests, Favre barely has more touchdowns (16) than interceptions (14). In fact, even if you count those games, Favre has more picks (11) than scores (8) since New York’s Week 5 bye.

Throwing against the Bills shouldn’t be a problem unless Aaron Schobel and Jabari Greer return to the lineup. Without Schobel, Buffalo hasn’t been able to assemble any sort of pass rush. The team will need one against the Jets.

Buffalo’s prospects of shutting down Thomas Jones also seem bleak. The Bills, once owners of a top-10 rush defense, are now 19th against the run. Sure, they limited Jones to just 69 rushing yards in their prior meeting, but that was on only 12 carries.

RECAP: I really can’t recommend betting on the Bills if Zohan is under center. He’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, hands down.

However, laying a touchdown with the Jets seems less lucrative. I’ve made it known that New York’s upset victory over the Titans could ruin its season. The Jets were coming off an emotional, overtime win at New England. They had no business of beating Tennessee. Yet, they exerted all of the energy they had left and came away with a very unnatural victory.

Now, much like the Redskins after beating the Cowboys and Eagles on the road, the Jets are running on fumes. Their gas tank is empty. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they won in a close struggle in this contest, and then went on to lose against the Seahawks (at Seattle) and Dolphins. Actually, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Jets finish 8-8.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

Buffalo’s season is dead, but they can still take the hated Jets and Patriots down with them. As for New York, the team is clearly reeling from its unnatural win at Tennessee after beating New England on the road. Recall the Redskins – they debacled both the Cowboys and Eagles as visitors, and capsized right after that. The Jets are going through the same motions. They probably would have been better off losing to the Titans.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

People are done with the Bills. Everyone is on the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 83% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 12 meetings.

Dead Dog: Dick Jauron is 1-5 ATS as a divisional dog of 7+.

Losing Coach: Eric Mangini is 2-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Bills are 15-11 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.

Bills are 2-20 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Opening Line: Jets -7.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Bills 16
Bills +7.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 41 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Jets 31, Bills 27

San Francisco 49ers (5-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-5)
Line: Dolphins by 6. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Dolphins -7.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Dolphins -7.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Injuries: 49ers: OUT: QB Alex Smith (IR), FB Zak Keasey (IR), WR Arnaz Battle (IR), OLB Jay Moore (IR), CB Shawntae Spencer (IR). Dolphins: OUT: WR Greg Camarillo (IR), G Donald Thomas (IR), CB Michael Lehan (IR).

College Football Notes:

If you have a friend who turned into stone on Saturday night, and you’re looking for an explanation, you’ve come to the right place. During ESPN’s telecast of the Diet Dark Vanilla Chocolate Strawberry Dr. Pepper Big XII Championship, Brent Musburger and Kirk Herbstreit interviewed the Big XII commissioner. It was not a pretty sight. I could joke about the man’s portly belly or the gargantuan mole on his face that took up half the screen, but that’s not how we do things on this Web site.

Anyway, this guy is the epitome of how sleazy and crooked the NCAA is. Why? Look at the two things he said:

1. “The kids don’t enjoy the playoffs as much as they enjoy the bowls.” (Commentary: Cough, LIAR, cough cough, LIAR! Why don’t you go ask the kids at Texas how they feel, and get back to me.)

2. “If we have a playoff system, ten years down the road, we’ll look back and ask, ‘What did we do to the regular season?'” (Oh, you mean the regular season where one-loss Team A beats one-loss Team B, yet Team B is chosen to play in a pseudo championship over Team A? Oh, and let’s not forget the fact that Teams C and D are undefeated!)

Oklahoma and Florida may be playing for what the public perceives to be the national championship. But they’re not. Utah and Boise State are playing in two separate national championships. Think about it this way – scum bags like this Big XII Commissioner argue that the regular season is a playoff on its own. Well, in a typical playoff, if you keep winning, you eventually claim the title. That’s just how things work. So, if Utah and/or Boise State win, they’re the national champs. Plain and simple.

By the way, you can vote on who will win the College Football National Championship by clicking on the link.

OK, done ranting. Man, I feel like Mike Singletary right now.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Speaking of Singletary, it’s amazing what this man has done with the 49ers. Excluding his first game, which wasn’t fair because it occurred just six days after the firing of Mike Nolan, Singletary is 3-2, losing at 8-5 Dallas and 8-5 Arizona. And keep in mind that the 49ers were competitive in both of those contests.

Other than Singletary, the difference has been Shaun Hill. Unlike the turnover-happy J.T. O’Sullivan, whom Mike Martz dubbed as the best quarterback he’s ever coached (let’s not forget that gem, shall we), Hill takes care of the ball. Hill has just four picks in five starts, compared to O’Sullivan’s 11 in eight appearances.

Unfortunately, Hill will be behind the eight ball in this game, as it looks like Frank Gore won’t be able to play. This is a huge blow for the 49ers. Not only is Gore one of the best backs in the league; backup DeShaun Foster sucks.

It helps Hill that Miami’s secondary stinks, but Gore’s absence will allow the Dolphins to focus on putting pressure on the quarterback. San Francisco’s offensive line isn’t exactly the league’s best blocking unit.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I see no reason to expect anything but the usual from Miami – tons of clock-consuming drives featuring both the run and short pass. I talked about Shaun Hill playing efficiently. Well, Chad Pennington has just eight turnovers this entire season! That’s less than half of what O’Sullivan accumulated in five less games! Give it up for Martz’s super awesome quarterback!

The 49ers are pretty decent against the run (12th), so Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams could have problems advancing the chains on their own. San Francisco also pressures the quarterback well, but Pennington’s quick release should neutralize that.

RECAP: As mentioned, the 49ers are playing great football right now. And if Gore can’t go, they’ll probably try even harder. Since the bye, San Francisco has either won or stayed competitive in every game it has played.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, simply don’t cover large point spreads. And by large, I mean -3 or more. Miami is 0-4 against the spread in such games, losing to the Ravens, and beating the Rams (16-12), Seahawks (21-19) and Raiders (17-15) by small margins.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.

The Dolphins need a win, but as ESPN radio host and professional handicapper Dave Cokin once said, “If a team needs a win, they’re probably not that good in the first place.” The 49ers are definitely going to bring it.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
Slight action on Miami.

Percentage of money on Miami: 60% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 27-44 ATS since 2002 (Mike Singletary 1-0).

Chad Pennington is 15-11 ATS as a home favorite.

Opening Line: Dolphins -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Possible showers, 76 degrees. Mild wind, 18 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, 49ers 17
49ers +6.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 41 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Dolphins 14, 49ers 9

San Diego Chargers (5-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-11)
Line: Chargers by 6. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Chargers -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Chargers -3.

Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR). Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle (IR), QB Damon Huard (IR), RB Kolby Smith (IR), DE Turk McBride (IR).

More College Football Notes: Sticking with the theme of college football people saying stupid things, how about these gems from Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach? I’d like to preface this by saying I have the ultimate respect for what Leach has done with the Red Raiders program, and I think he’s a terrific coach. However, there’s a difference between blaming a loss on a few things and making outlandish statements…

1. DURING HALFTIME OF THE OKLAHOMA-TEXAS TECH BLOWOUT, Leach was asked how Oklahoma established such a large lead:

“We didn’t settle them down.” (Commentary: Ah, so that’s why you’re losing 42-7 at halftime!? No comment on your defense’s crappiness? The only problem was settling Oklahoma down?)

2. AFTER THE GAME, Leach was asked what his team could have done differently against Oklahoma:

“We tried too hard.” (Commentary: Apparently, when your teachers gave you an A for effort, it was all just a ruse. The secret to success is not trying hard at all!)

Speaking of trying hard, it was nice to see the Chargers put forth some effort last Thursday, though they probably didn’t have to because the Raiders were busy self-debacling themselves.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Chargers fans have to be concerned that LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for just 91 yards on 25 carries (3.6 YPC) against the pathetic Raiders. This, just one week after Tomlinson managed a mere 24 rushing yards against Atlanta’s 28th-ranked run defense.

I still believe Tomlinson has a few productive years in the tank. However, he tore his MCL in January and suffered through turf toe injuries, which have clearly held him back.

With that in mind, there’s no reason to believe Tomlinson will dominate Kansas City’s dead-last ground defense. In the first meeting between these two squads, Tomlinson had just 78 yards on 22 carries.

The Chargers were able to sneak away with a victory in that contest, thanks to Philip Rivers, who was 27-of-36, 316 yards, two touchdowns and a pair of picks. Kansas City clearly isn’t much better versus the pass (28th). The Chiefs’ young defense will simply have way too many offensive play-makers to worry about.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: San Diego won its first meeting against Kansas City, 20-19. The Chiefs were able to stay close because of Tyler Thigpen. Thigpen has been brilliant since taking over for Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard, beating the opposition through the air and on the ground.

Thigpen had his best performance of the year against the Chargers in Week 10, finishing 27-of-41 for 266 yards and two touchdowns. San Diego’s lackluster pass rush simply couldn’t get to Thigpen (one sack), allowing him to burn their mediocre secondary.

Larry Johnson, who wasn’t available in that contest, could be somewhat of a factor against San Diego’s 17th-ranked rush defense.

RECAP: I know the Chargers need to win every game, but as ESPN radio host and professional handicapper Dave Cokin always says, “If a team needs a win, they’re probably not very good in the first place.”

It’s safe to say that this Chargers squad has a few flaws. Perhaps its greatest downfall is its cockiness. San Diego is a conceited team that seldom takes inferior opponents seriously. That would explain why they’ve suffered a straight-up loss in three of the eight games in which they were favored by 5.5 or more.

I believe the Chargers will overlook the Chiefs because they have the Buccaneers and Broncos next on the slate. Kansas City, meanwhile, would love nothing more than to ruin hated San Diego’s season.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chargers need to win. The Chiefs hate the Chargers and would love to ruin their season. This could be constituted as a Breather Alert. The cocky Chargers have Tampa Bay and Denver after this “easy victory.”

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

One of the most lop-sided bet games of the week. It should be noted that line movement is matching the action, but that could be because Vegas didn’t expect so much money on the visitor.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 78% (103,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Home Team has won 16 of the last 21 meetings.

Chiefs are 12-6 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Chiefs are 3-10 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Chargers -4.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 50 degrees. STRONG WINDS, 24 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 21, Chargers 20
Chiefs +6 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 44 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Chargers 22, Chiefs 21

Green Bay Packers (5-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9)
Line: Packers by 2. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Pick.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Pick.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Packers.

Injuries: Packers: OUT: OT Mark Tauscher (IR), DT Justin Harrell, ILB Nick Barnett (IR). Jaguars: OUT: RB Fred Taylor (IR), FB Greg Jones (IR), WR Matt Jones (SUSP), WR Jerry Porter, G Vince Manuwai (IR), G Maurice Williams (IR), G Chris Naeole (IR), CB Rashean Mathis (IR), P Adam Podlesh (IR).

The Joker touched on this in his blog, and I’m pretty pissed off because I wanted to bring it up last week, but just ran out of room.

Has anyone noticed the sudden surge of “Cash for Gold” commercials? These ads are flooding our TV sets and they just don’t stop coming. They range from local commercials (in Philly, there’s a shady “Joe the Jeweler” ad where some fat Italian guy yells, “You got da gold, I got da cash!”) and national spots, including the famous Cash4Gold ad. You’ve seen it before – it features some old, senile lady by a lake who incoherently declares, “I neeeveerr knnneeeww myyy golldd wwaass wooortthh soo muuucchh mooonneeeyyyyyyyy.”

Does anyone find this exchange shady? The narrator of this commercial is pretty convincing though, when he tells us, “Without giving you any evidence, I’m telling you that gold has never been worth more! So send us your gold in an envelope, and we pinkie-swear we’ll send you the money back!” OK, I just convinced myself that this is a great deal. I’m going to go pillage some gold from my neighbors so I can turn it into money. Hey, he pinkie-swore!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: These teams have been so sloppy the past few weeks, I just don’t know where to begin. Well, Packers fans can’t really blame their team’s failure on Aaron Rodgers. He’s actually been the one consistent element this season; he has thrown for at least 225 yards and two touchdowns in the past four weeks. It’s been his team that has epically failed. And things are only going to get worse because right tackle Mark Tauscher is out for the year.

Luckily, the Packers get Jacksonville’s putrid defense this Sunday. The Jaguars are 20th against the run and 25th versus the pass, and can’t get any pressure on the quarterback. Ryan Grant could eclipse the 100-yard barrier, setting up play-action opportunities for an untouched Rodgers. Jacksonville’s secondary just isn’t good enough to cover Greg Jennings and Donald Driver.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Unlike Rodgers, David Garrard has been awful lately. He was especially brutal at Chicago last week. I can’t see him getting any better because his top target, Matt “Coke Zero” Jones, has finally been suspended for something he did a long time ago. Thanks a lot, Roger Goodell. You’ve proven that you believe in punishment over rehabilitation. If Coke Zero turns back into Coke Classic, you can only blame yourself.

At any rate, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor should have decent performances against Green Bay’s 27th-ranked rush defense. Don’t expect anything great from a non-fantasy perspective, however. Jacksonville’s interior offensive line is too banged up and simply can’t open up any running lanes.

RECAP: I know the Packers just pissed off their fans by losing two must-win games at home, but compared to them, the Jaguars really suck. Excluding a win against the Lions (because as Chris Berman would say, stats against Detroit should not count) the last time Jacksonville has covered is Oct. 12. Even more amazing is that the Jaguars haven’t covered a single home game this year. And if you think that’s bad, Jacksonville has one straight-up victory as a host – a 30-27 overtime triumph versus Houston.

I know this is a shady spread that is begging everyone to take the Packers. But I can’t recommend taking the craptastic Jaguars.

So, with that in mind, I’m picking Green Bay, but I’m not laying any units on this contest. I wouldn’t recommend betting this game anyway, and even one unit is too risky. I’ve lost too many units this year on these stupid 1-unit selections where I just can’t make up my mind. It’s going to stop now.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both of these teams are playing like they don’t even care anymore. Neither squad has covered since Nov. 16.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

A pretty weird line, and the public appears to be taking the bait.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 87% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 12-6 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Jaguars are 7-1 ATS coming off a 2-game road trip the previous eight instances.

Opening Line: Packers -1.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Possible showers, 67 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Jaguars 20
Packers -2 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46 (.5 Units) — Push; $0
Jaguars 20, Packers 16

Detroit Lions (0-13) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
Line: Colts by 17. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Colts -16.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Colts -16.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Colts.

Injuries: Lions: OUT: QB Jon Kitna (IR), WR Mike Furrey (IR), DE Jared DeVries (IR), DT Cory Redding (IR), CB Stanley Wilson (IR), S Gerald Alexander (IR). Colts: OUT: RB Mike Hart (IR), OT Tony Ugoh, G Ryan Lilja, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, CB Marlin Jackson (IR), KR T.J. Rushing (IR). QUESTIONABLE: C Jeff Saturday.

Bill Simmons inspired this feature. A few years ago, Simmons speculated on what Jim Haslett, a lame-duck coach with the Saints, could do to get fired. Rod Marinelli seems to be in the same position. I’m convinced Marinelli could do whatever he wants and he still wouldn’t get axed.

In fact, let’s put it to the test. Here are some things Marinelli could do and the odds that he would keep his job.

99.9% Job Security – Eschews two field goals, which would have given his team its first victory of the season.

99.8% Job Security – Acts calmer after losing his 13th in a row than the coach who beat him.

99.7% Job Security – Watches as other coaches get canned even though he has many less wins than they do. And by many less, I mean none.

99.6% Job Security – Asks oddly named bums like Moran and Gosder to take cheap shots at the Colts.

99.5% Job Security – Declines an invitation to the Insight Bowl.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It looks like Jeff Saturday could play this weekend. The Lions better hope he doesn’t. Prior to their blowout victory against the pathetic Bengals, Indianapolis averaged just 13.7 points per game without Saturday in the lineup, which pales in comparison to their seasonal figure of 22.5.

Regardless of whether Saturday plays or not, Peyton Manning should have an easy time dissecting Detroit’s putrid secondary. I really don’t see anything the Lions can do to stop him.

Detroit’s only prayer of containing Indianapolis’ offense is if Saturday misses this contest and the Colts concentrate too hard on running the ball. Joseph Addai has struggled this season, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. He managed just 26 yards last week, as he clearly missed Saturday. If Saturday is in the lineup, however, Addai shouldn’t have much difficulty trampling Detroit’s 31st-ranked rush defense.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Though Calvin Johnson draws constant double teams and Kevin Smith has been effective lately, the Lions are still 28th in scoring offense. They simply have no offensive line and their quarterbacks stink.

Daunte Culpepper finally wasn’t terrible last week, yet he hurt himself. The good news is that Dan Orlovsky might be available. That’s how bad the Lions are – they’re counting on a guy who doesn’t know the dimensions of the football field.

Whether Culpepper or Orlovsky is at the helm, look for a bunch of three-and-outs and stalled drives, mixed in with an occasional long pass to Megatron. Indianapolis’ defense, much improved with Bob Sanders in the lineup, just held the Bengals and Browns to just nine total points. I know those teams can’t score, but neither can the Lions.

RECAP: I like the Lions to cover the 17 for a few reasons:

1. They’re desperate. They can’t go down in infamy, can they? They’ll be trying much harder than the Colts in this contest.

2. The Lions are 5-4 against the spread since Oct. 12, including 4-0 on the road. They’ve lost those road tilts by margins of: 12, 7, 4 and 9. Three of those contests were at 8-5 Minnesota, 7-6 Chicago and 10-3 Carolina, so they weren’t playing cupcakes.

3. Seventeen points is way too much – even for the Lions. Rod Marinelli is a masterful 8-1 against the spread as a double-digit underdog.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are the sixth 0-13 team in NFL history. They’ll be playing out of their minds here.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Wow, I can’t believe people are betting the Colts and fading the Lions.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 75% (106,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Lions are 8-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Rod Marinelli.

Lions are 9-17 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Lions are 8-12 ATS on the road since 2006.

Colts are 15-9 ATS vs. the NFC under Tony Dungy.

Opening Line: Colts -16.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Colts 31, Lions 20
Lions +17 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 45 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Colts 31, Lions 21

Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-11-1)
Line: Redskins by 6.5. Total: 36.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Redskins -3.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Redskins -3.5.

Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Injuries: Redskins: OUT: OT Chris Samuels (IR), DE Phillip Daniels (IR), S Reed Doughty (IR). Bengals: OUT: QB Carson Palmer, RB Kenny Irons (IR), G Andrew Whitworth (IR), OLB Keith Rivers (IR), CB Jonathan Joseph (IR), S Dexter Jackson (IR), S Marvin White (IR). DOUBTFUL: OT Levi Jones, DE Antwan Odom.

I’m pissed off I’m not in school anymore. My sister asked me to proofread a paper for her. Discussing World War II, she wrote that the Nazis torched and destroyed synagogues. However, this marked the second time she used the word “destroyed” in two sentences, so I decided to come up with a synonym for that word. I erased “destroyed” and absent-mindedly typed “debacled.” I’ve gotten so used to that word this year that it’s become part of my vocabulary. If I were still in school, I’d use either “debacled,” “debacling” or “debaclation” in all of my papers. Every single one of them – just to see what my professors would say. If you’re in school now, please do this and let me know how your professor/teacher reacts.

CINICNNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of debacled, that’s exactly what happened to Cincinnati’s offensive line recently. As if losing Carson Palmer for the year wasn’t enough, left guard Andrew Whitworth has been placed on IR, while left tackle Levi Jones has been out for a while.

Coincidentally, since losing both linemen, the Bengals have successively lost by 17, 31 and 32. Washington habitually doesn’t get much pressure on quarterbacks (19 sacks), but you could say that about the Colts, who had the same total prior to Sunday’s 35-3 victory over Cincinnati. Indianapolis registered five sacks in the win.

With even worse protection and running lanes than usual, Cincinnati simply can’t move the chains efficiently. Cedric Benson couldn’t even gain four yards per carry versus Indianapolis’ putrid rush defense, forcing Ryan Fitzpatrick into third-and-long situations. Fitzpatrick consequently had two picks and two fumbles. The Redskins should be able to force the Harvard Man (great movie) into a similar number of give-aways.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: In addition to seeing Jones and Whitworth go down, the Bengals have been without the services of bust signing Antwan Odom. The high-priced defensive end may suck, but he’s a better pass rusher than whomever else the Bengals have. So, it should be no surprise that Cincinnati has only two sacks the past three weeks.

Redskins left tackle Chris Samuels is out, but Cincinnati just doesn’t have the personnel to take advantage of that. If they couldn’t sack Ben Roethlisberger behind Pittsburgh’s inept front, they probably won’t lay a finger nail on Jason Campbell.

Don’t expect a big game out of Clinton Portis, however. Cincinnati is somehow 11th versus the run and just shut down Joseph Addai.

RECAP: Portis criticized Jim Zorn in the media this week, sarcastically calling the man a “genius.” You would think this would have a negative effect, but I’ve found that when something like this happens, it usually strengthens team morale.

Perhaps this is exactly what the Redskins needed. They’ve been in a funk ever since beating Dallas and Philadelphia in consecutive road tilts. In fact, the only game they’ve covered since the Eagles victory was an unconvincing 25-17 decision at Detroit.

Given how inept the Bengals have been recently, this seems like the perfect opportunity for the Redskins to turn their season around and finish strong. It’s really now or never.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Redskins have needed to win before, but now no one really expects them to because they’re behind a million teams. It could be Washington’s turn to go on a winning streak, starting with the Bengals, who haven’t covered since tying the Eagles on Nov. 16.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

No surprise where the action is going here. Line movement is matching the action though.

Percentage of money on Washington: 84% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Road Warrior: Coaches are 128-82 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss since 1996.

Opening Line: Redskins -6.5.

Opening Total: 35.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 52 degrees. Mild wind, 17 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Redskins 24, Bengals 6
Redskins -6.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 36.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Bengals 20, Redskins 13

Seattle Seahawks (2-11) at St. Louis Rams (2-11)
Line: Seahawks by 2.5. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Rams -2.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Pick.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
Injuries: Seahawks: OUT: WR Deion Branch*, WR Nate Burleson (IR), WR Ben Obomanu (IR), WR Logan Payne (IR), OT Walter Jones (IR), G Rob Sims (IR), G Mike Wahle (IR), C Chris Spencer (IR), DE Patrick Kerney (IR). Rams: OUT: FB Brian Leonard (IR), WR Drew Bennett (IR), TE Randy McMichael (IR), OT Orlando Pace*, OT Brandon Gorin (IR), G Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Justin King (IR), CB Ricky Manning Jr., KR Dante Hall (IR).

And now, for the matchup we’ve all waited for: Rams versus Seahawks. Hey, don’t scoff – as Cousin Sal said, this is a must-lose game for both teams; the squad that goes down gets the right to select the better prospect in the NFL Draft. Fans of both teams will be glued to the TV set, praying for their squad to go down in a blaze of glory.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: So, who gets the much-needed “L?” Based on the way the Seahawks played last week, definitely not them. Matt Hasselbeck is probably out, meaning Seneca “The Backdoor Bandit” Wallace will get the chains to run around, make short throws and accidentally convert some third downs.

You have to love Deion Branch in this spot, who caught two touchdowns last week against St. Louis’ 31st-ranked pass defense. Meanwhile, Maurice Morris figures to sprint right through the Rams’ pathetic front seven, seeded 29th versus the rush.

Look for numerous long, clock-killing drives from Seattle, resulting in red-zone field goals and punts between the 35 and 50. Hey, at least I’m not calling for any turnovers!

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: So much for being better with Steven Jackson. Jackson had two fumbles last week, one of which was returned for a touchdown. He also rushed for a meager 64 yards.

To be fair, however, the Cardinals are sixth versus the run. Seattle isn’t nearly as good.

Jackson will rebound with a likely 100-yard performance, allowing Marc Bulger to utilize some play-action. That will be fine until Bulger commits a costly fumble or interception. If that doesn’t happen, look for a few Seattle sacks to knock Bulger into long-yardage situations.

Don’t expect much offense from St. Louis. I know Seattle’s defense stinks, but the Rams have eclipsed the 20-point barrier just once all year!

RECAP: I don’t trust the Seahawks on the road – and for good reason. They’re 9-15 against the spread as visitors since 2006.

That said, they’ve won the last seven in this series, meaning they’ve captured three in a row at St. Louis.

The Rams will be more competitive with Jackson, but of the two quarterbacks, I trust The Backdoor Bandit more than Bulger. Bulger simply makes too many mistakes and seems like he doesn’t care anymore. It’s one thing to ask Bulger to cover a large spread. It’s another to ask him to win a game (presumably, this line is anywhere between Seahawks -3 and Rams -3.)

I’m going with the Seahawks, but if it seems like I waffled a bit, you’re right. This will be yet another zero-unit selection – whenever the line is posted.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Big game in the NFC West… as far as NFL Draft positioning is concerned. Give both teams credit for playing hard.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

This is more like it. Everyone is on Seattle.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 68% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Seahawks have won the last 7 meetings.

Seahawks are 9-15 ATS on the road since 2006.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 10
Seahawks -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43 (.5 Units) — Push; $0
Seahawks 23, Rams 20

Tennessee Titans (12-1) at Houston Texans (6-7)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Titans -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Titans -6.

Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Titans.

Injuries: Titans: OUT: CB Reynaldo Hill, CB Eric King. Texans: OUT: RB Ahman Green (IR), RB Chris Brown (IR), RB Chris Taylor (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), OLB Zach Diles (IR), CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown, KR Andre Davis.

I like this game a lot. Actually, I’m in love with it – even more so than with that Snorg red t-shirt girl. In fact, this is my December NFL Pick of the Month. I’ll explain why at the bottom. Let’s go over the matchups first.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: We all know what the Titans are going to do here. They’re going to give the ball to Chris Johnson early and often. Once they reach the 5-yard line, LenDale White will blue-whale carries away from the quick rookie.

On paper, the Titans should be able to just run the ball every down. The Texans are 25th versus the rush. Just last week, Ryan Grant tallied 104 yards and a touchdown on just 19 carries.

However, check this figure out. The last time these teams played, which was a 31-12 Tennessee victory in Week 3, Johnson and White combined for 123 yards on 32 attempts. That’s an average of just 3.8 yards per rush. What’s the deal?

Well, Houston sold out against the run, daring Kerry Collins to beat them. Collins was only mildly successful, going 13-of-25 for 185 yards, one touchdown and a pick, which is surprising because of how anemic the Texans’ secondary is.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: So, if the Titans’ offense didn’t do much, why did the game end 31-12? Well, Cortland Finnegan took a pick-six back late, so it was really 24-12. Gary Kubiak also eschewed two field goals and chose to go for it on a pair of fourth downs. He failed on both. So, this contest could have really ended 24-18.

With that said, a 24-18 result would have been remarkable because Matt Schaub was just 17-of-37 for 188 yards and three picks.

I would expect a better performance from Schaub this time around. First of all, he was coming off an equally poor outing at Pittsburgh, the first game of the year, so he wasn’t in a groove yet. Also, he’s one of the hotter quarterbacks in the NFL. He has a plethora of weapons to work with, including Steve Slaton, who wasn’t fully integrated into the passing attack in Week 3.

Slaton, who rushed for 116 yards against the Titans that day, offers Schaub a dynamic weapon to work with. Opposing defenses can’t key in on him because of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels.

RECAP: I love the Texans. As I said, this is my December NFL Pick of the Month. Here are seven reasons why:

1. WEEK 11: As Emmitt would say, “Don’t underestimitize the divisional road game.” Tennessee had a very similar battle against Jacksonville in Week 11. The Jaguars, 3-point home underdogs, jumped out to an unbelievable 14-3 lead at halftime. Unfortunately, they couldn’t hold that advantage because their offense, including David Garrard, sucks at life. Jacksonville couldn’t convert a first down in the fourth quarter until there was virtually no time left on the clock.

Houston’s offense is way more potent than Jacksonville’s. And it’s not like the Jaguars have a stout defense that debacled the Titans. They simply played with more emotion than an unfocused Titans squad. Their injuries just killed them and they weren’t able to keep the momentum going in the second half. Houston should be able to. And that brings us to…

2. BATTLE RED: I don’t know if the Texans will be wearing their red jerseys in this game, but they should. This is probably one of the biggest games in franchise history. Houston has never finished with a winning record before. To do so, they’ll have to run the table. And what bigger statement can they make by beating the team with the NFL’s best record?

3. LETHARGIC TEAL: Meanwhile, what consequence does this game have for the Titans? They’re two up on everyone in the AFC, meaning they basically have homefield advantage wrapped up. They just clinched the division last week. Now, they travel to Houston to battle a squad they beat by 19 in Week 3. What’s the motivation here? There is no statement to be made for the Titans. They could actually be more concerned with playing Indianapolis and Pittsburgh to close out the season.

4. TITANS OVERRATED? Wow, am I calling a 12-1 team overrated? Well, just bear with me. Excluding their embarrassing 34-13 loss to the Jets, can you name the last difficult opponent the Titans have played? Let’s go over their last few games…

Tennessee beat the Ken Dorsey-led Browns on Sunday. Big whoop. Before that, they had the Lions on Thanksgiving. Prior to the Jets debaclation, they won at capsizing Jacksonville. No challenge there. In Week 10, they won at Chicago – only the Bears had Rex Grossman at the helm; not Kyle Orton.

You have to go all the way back to Nov. 2 when the Titans battled the Packers and barely escaped with a home win in overtime, 19-16.

I’m just saying Tennessee hasn’t been tested by a good team (except for the Jets in a 34-13 loss) in a long time.

5. TEXANS UNDERRATED: So, are the Texans a good team? Absolutely! They’re 6-7 with three consecutive victories, including an impressive 24-21 triumph at Lambeau. Remember, the 10-3 Panthers barely escaped with a win at Green Bay.

Houston’s record could be even better if Schaub played the entire season. And don’t forget the overtime loss in Jacksonville and Sage Rosenchoker’s self-debaclation versus Indianapolis. The Texans legitimately could be 8-5 right now.

6. HOUSTON AT HOME: The Texans are even better as hosts. They’re 4-2 at Reliant Stadium this season, and would be 5-1 if it wasn’t for Rosenchoker.

Check out this fact: The last time Houston failed to cover as a home underdog was Sept. 24, 2006! The Texans are 7-0 against the spread as home dogs since that date. Of those seven contests, they won five of them straight up!

7. VEGAS: Some of the members of the forum pointed out that this is a shady line. Well, the line movement is definitely obscure. Opening at -3.5, this spread fell to -3 despite tons of action on Tennessee. Why would the books want even more action on the visitor?

RECAP OF THE RECAP: And there it is. The Texans are my December NFL Pick of the Month. Let’s hope they don’t blow a 17-0 lead when a fumble- and interception-happy Rosenchoker replaces an injured Schaub! With my luck, that’s a definite possibility.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

The Texans are feeding off their Monday night momentum. They’d love to beat the Titans, who really don’t have anything to play for. Seriously, what motivation does Tennessee have here? They’re two games up on everyone in the AFC, and 6-7 Houston is not a “quality opponent.”

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Tons of action on the Titans, yet the line dropped from -3.5 to -3.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 79% (144,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Titans have won 11 of the 13 meetings.

Texans are 7-0 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006.

Texans are 12-21 ATS after a win (6-5 since 2007).

Opening Line: Titans -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Possible storms, 76 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Texans 31, Titans 17
Texans +3 (8 Units – December NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$800
Over 45 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Texans 13, Titans 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-4) at Atlanta Falcons (8-5)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Falcons -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Falcons -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: RB Earnest Graham (IR), FB Byron Storer (IR), CB Torrie Cox (IR), CB Sammy Davis (IR). QUESTIONABLE: QB Jeff Garcia*, DT Jovan Haye, DT Chris Hovan. Falcons: OUT: CB Von Hutchins (IR).

Yay, another NFC South matchup! Let’s kick things off with the Monday night crew, who called Tampa Bay-Carolina in the following manner:

Mike Tirico: This is a great game! Why doesn’t anyone ever talk about these NFC South teams? They’re so good and exciting to watch.

Ron Jaworski: After watching 20 hours of film, I can tell you that these teams are definitely among the best in the National Football League. It’s amazing that no one talks about them.

Tirico: The Buccaneers take over after the Jake Delhomme interception. Their longest gain on offense is two yards!

Jaworski: Let’s see what Jon Gruden dials up! After watching 40 hours of game film on him, I’ve determined that he’s one of the best coaches in the National Football League!

Tirico: Panthers ball. We’re locked in at 3-3!

Jaworski: This is the best game I’ve ever seen in my life, and I watch 60 hours of National Football League game film every day!

Tirico: The Buccaneers finally reach the red zone. They’ve scored only one touchdown all year from inside the red zone!

Tony Kornheiser: BRETT FAVRE. AARON RODGERS. BRETT FAVRE. AARON RODGERS. BRETT FAVRE. AARON RODGERS. BRETT FAVRE. AARON RODGERS. BRETT FAVRE. AARON RODGERS. BRETT FAVRE. AARON RODGERS.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Tampa Bay’s offense is known for being a little sloppy, especially inside the red zone, but what in the world happened to the defense? How did the Panthers rush for 301 yards (if you take away the two Jake Delhomme kneel downs)? No one could have predicted that before the Monday night game.

Well, it was evident that the Buccaneers missed under tackle Jovan Haye, who didn’t make the trip to Carolina, and nose tackle Chris Hovan, who left the contest early.

Both linemen are questionable for this contest. It’s pretty obvious that the Buccaneers will need both if they want to stop Michael Turner. If they’re out, they’ll need to focus more on the rush, allowing Matt Ryan to dissect their defense. Historically, Roddy White has been poor versus Tampa Bay, but I have a feeling he’ll have a break-out game here.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Bill Simmons said it best when he joked that it’s almost an accident whenever the Buccaneers achieve a first down. As I mentioned, their offense is sloppy, especially in the red zone. Jeff Garcia has to run around just to be able to see his old receivers and drop-happy tight ends. If it weren’t for Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay’s scoring unit would be completely anemic.

On paper, the Buccaneers should be able to pound the rock with Warrick Dunn and Cadillac Williams against Atlanta’s 28th-ranked rush defense. But unlike last week, the Falcons will be able to commit more defenders to the run. Garcia, Bryant, Ike Hilliard and Jerramy “Matchup Nightmare” Stevens aren’t nearly as potent as Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey.

RECAP: This is the biggest game in Atlanta’s new regime. Win, and they have a great shot at the playoffs. Lose, and they’re probably done.

Even though both squads are contending for a postseason slot, this means way more to the Falcons. Tampa Bay could lose this contest and easily win its last two; the Buccaneers battle the Chargers and Raiders at home in Weeks 16 and 17.

Also, when there’s a hot trend, I think you just have to roll with it. NFC South hosts are 24-2 this year and 10-0 in the division. I think that will continue to hold up.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

This is the biggest game in the new Falcons regime. Tampa Bay could be a bit sluggish coming off a big Monday night loss. Also keep in mind that this is not a must-win for the Buccaneers. They have two home games against the hapless Chargers and Raiders after this. If they win those contests, they’ll be in the playoffs with an 11-5 record.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise that the public is fading the Buccaneers after watching them on Monday night.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 72% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Buccaneers have won 12 of the last 16 meetings.

Monday Might: Jon Gruden is 4-1 ATS after losing on Monday night.

Road Bum: Jon Gruden is 4-7 ATS in his second consecutive road game.

Matt Ryan is 5-1 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Falcons 26, Buccaneers 16
Falcons -3 (2 Units) — Push; $0
Under 44.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Falcons 13, Buccaneers 10

Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
Vikings at Cardinals, Steelers at Ravens, Broncos at Panthers, Patriots at Raiders, Giants at Cowboys, Browns at Eagles

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

NBA Picks Against the Spread

2024 NFL Draft Goals

2024 NFL Draft Potential Busts

NFL Free Agent Signing Grades – Latest Signing Grades for 2024 NFL Free Agency

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers

Related News