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Week 6 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 13, 4:35 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games

Miami Dolphins (2-2) at Houston Texans (0-4)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 45.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Texans -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Dolphins -1.
Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.
Injuries: Dolphins: OUT: G Donald Thomas (IR). Texans: OUT: RB Chris Brown (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), CB Dunta Robinson, CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown.

No complaints with an 8-6 record against the spread last week. Oh wait, I do have one complaint: Sage Rosenfels sucks!!! Thanks for blowing a 27-10 lead with less than five minutes remaining! I had three units on the Texans, so watching that lead dissipate into oblivion was pretty painful. Going 9-5 with a positive net of 8.6 units would have been pretty sweet.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Sage Rosenchoker won't make the start here; it'll be Matt Schaub, who's still recovering from his tummy ache. Miami ranks 29th against the pass, giving up a YPA of 8.0 (you can see real run/pass defense rankings on my NFL Power Rankings page) but Schaub won't necessarily feel well because the Dolphins have already registered 12 sacks on the year. Houston's offensive line is better this season, but I'm not sure it can contain Matt Roth, who's playing out of his mind right now.

The Texans will need to establish the run to keep Miami's defense honest, but that won't happen. While Steve Slaton ran well last week - 93 yards on 16 carries - the Dolphins are infinitely better at stopping the run than Indianapolis is. They rank fifth in that department.

MIAMI OFFENSE: All this ranting and raving about the Wildcat offense, but to quote Ricky Watters, "For who? For what?" Miami ran out of the Wildcat 12 times against the Chargers and gained a total of 48 yards.

Still, the Dolphins should have some success in this contest, as Houston pretty much rivals San Diego in terms of run-stopping ability. Ronnie Brown gained 125 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, so look for a repeat performance, setting up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Chad Pennington. Pennington should be able to slice and dice a C.C. Brown-less Houston secondary ranked 23rd against the pass.

An intriguing matchup on paper is Jake Long versus Mario Williams. I'm saying "on paper" because Pennington's MO is throwing short junk and getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible. I can't see the Texans accumulating many sacks in this contest.

RECAP: The Dolphins are a bit better than the Texans, though homefield advantage should neutralize that. Still, I wouldn't touch this game with a 40-foot pole.

Why? Simple: I have no idea how Houston is going to recover from its disastrous loss to the Colts. In my mind, Sage Rosenchoker's performance rivals that of Arizona's two years ago against the Bears on Monday Night Football. If you recall, the Cardinals, who were huge underdogs to undefeated Chicago, surrendered a massive fourth-quarter lead via fumble returns, interception returns and punt returns, prompting Dennis Green to go ballistic ("They are who we thought they were!")

Green was subsequently fired after the season, but before that, the Cardinals were thrashed in their next three games by scores of 22-9 (as 3-point favorites at Oakland), 31-14 (as 4-point dogs at Green Bay) and 27-10 (as 6-point dogs versus Dallas). They just had no energy after losing like that. The Texans could react the same way.

I know I'm going against this effective Zero Heroes trend, but I just can't side with a team that could be feeling sorry for itself. Besides, the Dolphins are a confident football team that's playing really well right now.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.
Public perception is that Houston is emotionally drained after the Indianapolis loss, and I have to agree. This Texans debacle almost mirrors the meltdown Arizona had in the Monday night game against Chicago two years ago. The Cardinals failed to cover three in a row after that "They Are Who We Thought They Were!" defeat.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Though action was split early in the week, bettors are now backing the Wildcat offense.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 62% (127,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 17-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Texans are 24-12 ATS after two or more consecutive losses.
  • Opening Line: Texans -3.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 86 degrees. Light wind.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Texans 12
    Dolphins +3 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 45 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Texans 29, Dolphins 28

    Chicago Bears (3-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-2)
    Line: Bears by 3. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Pick.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Pick.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Bears.
    Injuries: Bears: OUT: OT Chris Williams, S Brandon McGowan (IR). Falcons: OUT: CB Von Hutchins (IR).

    Each week, I like to take a look at how Vegas fared.

    The books were REALLY hurting after the 1 p.m. games. Heavily backed favorites like the Titans, Panthers, Bears, Colts and Giants all covered. The only victories for the house were the Dolphins (which broke up a lot of teasers) and Falcons. The afternoon contests were pretty much even; Vegas was hurt with the Patriots and Bengals, but was saved by the Cardinals and Buccaneers. The books recovered with the two night games; Pittsburgh and Minnesota both winning probably saved some people from getting fired (or worse).

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: Though Michael Turner is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and Matt Ryan is doing a good job as a rookie, I'm still having trouble buying this Falcons team as a legitimate playoff contender. Two of their victories were against 1-4 Kansas City and 0-4 Detroit. I know they beat the Packers last week, but Green Bay was missing Al Harris and Atari Bigby in its secondary. The combined record of the teams the Falcons have beaten is 3-11.

    Actually, now that we're in Week 6, I've come to realize that it's pretty easy to figure out the Falcons. If Turner can run the ball, they win. If Turner can't, they lose. Think about it: Turner gashed the Chiefs, Lions and Packers, who are 32nd, 30th and 29th against the rush, respectively. Turner couldn't do anything versus the Buccaneers and Panthers, who are sixth and 14th.

    Bad news for Atlanta - Chicago limits opposing backs to 3.7 yards per carry, which is good for ninth in the NFL. With Turner stuffed in the backfield, Ryan will have to move the chains on his own. That means the Bears' hectic pass rush will get to feast on the rookie signal caller on obvious passing downs.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: What's going on with Kyle Orton? Why is he suddenly putting up 300-yard games with ease?

    I'm not sure if Orton will get 300 here, but Matt Forte could have the 200-yard performance I was calling for last week. The Falcons are 24th against the run, giving up a disturbing 4.7 yards per carry. Forte's ability to move the chains will help Orton, who faces a talented, but young secondary.

    RECAP: Can the Bears win two consecutive road games? I don't see why not; Lovie Smith is actually 5-1 against the spread in his second-straight visiting tilt.

    My only concern here is that the first-place Bears, currently playing with house money, take on the Vikings next week, so they may be looking ahead. That's only a minor issue though, as the Falcons' 3-2 record could have Chicago focused.

    Oh, and don't worry about Vegas implications. The public is all over the Bears, but the line has risen 1.5 points in their favor.

    The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
    The Bears have a tough game against the Vikings next week, so this could be a possible Look-Ahead Alert. However, the Falcons are 3-2 and they just beat Chicago's arch rival. Lovie Smith could have his team focused.

    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    The public loves the Bears, but the line has risen two points in their favor.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 87% (144,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Bears.
  • Road Warrior: Lovie Smith is 5-1 ATS in his second consecutive road game.
  • Bears are 3-6 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bears -1.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Falcons 20
    Bears -3 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 43.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Falcons 22, Bears 20

    Detroit Lions (0-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3)
    Line: Vikings by 13. Total: 454..

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Vikings -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Vikings -9.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Vikings.
    Injuries: Lions: OUT: CB Stanley Wilson (IR). Vikings: OUT: DE Kenechi Udeze (IR), DT Kendrick Allen (IR), ILB E.J. Henderson, S Madieu Williams, S Michael Boulware (IR).

    Ugh, can we make it so Week 4 never happened? The Panthers were an easy survivor pick last week, beating the hapless Chiefs, 34-0. But anyway, there are only 10 people remaining in the $350 Survivor Pool. I'll continue to offer my advice for those who want it, and others who have entered in a new Survivor Contest.

    If you need another excuse to hit up the forums, check out the Heroes Discussion Thread, which includes a very hot picture of Claire. Wowwa weewa!

    Fading the Lions is always a promising Survivor option. I'll get to the Survivor analysis after breaking down this game.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: A year ago, I used to run a feature in my NFL Power Rankings called "How to Get Fired as a Head Coach for Dummies." One of the rules stated that not giving the ball to your best player was an easy way to get axed. Clearly, Brad Childress is a dummy.

    Why did Adrian Peterson get only 22 touches on Monday night? I understand that the Saints put eight men in the box, but that's when you set up some screens and short routes for one of the top players in the NFL. Instead, Childress had Gus Frerotte throwing the ball downfield dozens of times to his crappy receivers.

    I'd like to say that Peterson will run all over Detroit's 30th-ranked rush defense, but I can't. What if Childress once again fails to give Peterson enough carries? It's crazy, but it's very possible.

    OK, well, it may not matter all that much here. The Lions are dead last versus the pass, and they have just four sacks on the year, which is pretty laughable.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: While Detroit has registered only four sacks, it has given up 16 on the year. No wonder Jon Kitna's struggling; any quarterback would with that sort of horrendous pass protection.

    Look for the Vikings to accumulate about half a dozen sacks in this contest, as Kitna will be forced to throw a ton because Minnesota will completely eliminate Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson as ground options. Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams should be able to get open against a pedestrian Viking secondary, but Kitna won't have enough time in the pocket to get them the ball.

    RECAP: Going against the Lions, who are 0-4 against the spread, seems very lucrative right now, but I'm actually siding with them here for three reasons. And no, one of them isn't because I'm on crack.

    1) The Vikings were lucky to win a game they shouldn't have, and they have a battle against the first-place Bears next Sunday. They may not pay attention to an insignificant crappy team. Minnesota could sleepwalk through this contest.

    2) Statfox Trend. It works more than 67 percent of the time. You go against a home favorite coming off a 1-3 point road victory. This ties into reason No. 1.

    3) Zero Heroes. Siding with 0-4 teams has been very lucrative this decade, as they're desperate for a win. Teams that are 0-4 or worse are generally underdogs by a wide margin. In my opinion, the Vikings are just not that consistent on offense to be 13.5-point favorites.

    SURVIVOR UPDATE: If you've used the Redskins for whatever reason, I would go with the Vikings. Otherwise, side with Washington over the hapless Rams.

    The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
    The Lions will be trying extra hard to win their first game. The Vikings, meanwhile, could be a bit relaxed off a lucky victory. This is a Sandwich Situation for them, as they play the first-place Bears next week.

    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    Some action on the Vikings after the public backed the Lions.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 66% (123,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • History: Vikings have won 16 of the last 17 meetings.
  • Monday Misery: Brad Childress is 1-3 ATS after Monday Night Football.
  • Statfox Trend: Home favorites coming off a 1-3 point road win are 19-40 ATS in Weeks 2-10 since 2000.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 17-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Lions are 4-12 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Lions are 0-8 ATS against losing teams the previous 8 instances.
  • Opening Line: Vikings -13.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Vikings 20, Lions 10
    Lions +13 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 44.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Vikings 12, Lions 10

    St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Washington Redskins (4-1)
    Line: Redskins by 13. Total: 44.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Redskins -14.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Redskins -16.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Redskins.
    Injuries: Rams: OUT: WR Keenan Burton, TE Randy McMichael (IR), OT Brandon Gorin (IR), Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Justin King (IR). Redskins: OUT: DE Jason Taylor, DE Phillip Daniels (IR).

    ESPN was running a stupid feature on Sunday NFL Countdown, where they were talking about the Redskins running left with Clinton, so I turned on CBS just in time to hear Boomer Esiason say the following:

    "I'm not changing my pick. If Matt Flynn were starting, I'd pick the Falcons, but with Aaron Rodgers in the lineup, I'll stick with the Packers. Oh yeah, Dan Marino sucks at life!" (Commentary: Great analysis, Boomer. Oh, and I only made up seven words in that quote.)

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams suck at life too, but at least Marc Bulger's back at quarterback. What was Scott Linehan thinking by replacing him with the Jurassic Trent Green?

    Unfortunately for Bulger, he's going against an awesome Washington secondary that shut down Terrell Owens and Donovan McNabb in consecutive weeks. Pass protection will be a bit better because the Redskins have just six sacks on the year, but the fact remains that no one will be open - not even Torry Holt, who will be blanketed by Shawn Springs. Springs actually missed the Philadelphia game, but all reports indicate that he'll play.

    One matchup that looks nice on paper is Steven Jackson versus Washington's 25th-ranked run defense, but don't read too much into that. St. Louis' offensive line can't run block, while the Redskins have done a great job against the rush the past two weeks. Brian Westbrook was limited to 33 yards on 12 carries, while Marion Barber managed only 26 yards on eight attempts.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: This St. Louis team could go down as having the worst defense of all time. The Rams are 28th against the run, 31st versus the pass, and they can't get to the quarterback.

    Clinton Portis will trample St. Louis' stop unit, giving Jason Campbell tons of play-action opportunities to Santana Moss and Chris Cooley. All four figure to have career performances in this contest.

    RECAP: The Redskins definitely have the talent to cover this number, but I don't think they will. I just don't know how they're going to get up for this game after beating both Dallas and Philadelphia on the road. This is a horrendous spot for Washington, who like the Vikings, could sleepwalk through this contest.

    Vegas implications also play a factor here. The public is all over red-hot Washington, yet the line has dropped from -14.5 to -13.5. Why do the books want even more money on the heavily bet Redskins?

    Siding with the Rams on the road has proven to be disastrous this decade, but that's what I'm going to do here. Actually, if you think back two weeks, St. Louis actually played Buffalo really well before ultimately relinquishing the lead in the second half. Let's hope they begin where they left off in the first half of the Bills game. Let's go Zero Heroes!

    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    Major Letdown Alert for the Redskins. How can they possibly get up for this game after defeating the Cowboys and Eagles?

    Rams OC Al Saunders coached the Redskins in 2006-2007.

    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    With the public is on the Redskins, I find it strange that the line has moved down from -14.5 to -13.5.
  • Percentage of money on Washington: 74% (145,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 17-5 ATS since 2000.
  • Rams are 16-33 ATS in road games since 2001.
  • Rams are 9-22 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Redskins are 6-15 ATS after a road win since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -14.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Redskins 26, Rams 16
    Rams +13.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Under 44 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Survivor Pick (4-1)
    Rams 19, Redskins 17

    Carolina Panthers (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
    Line: Buccaneers by 1.5. Total: 37.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Buccaneers -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Buccaneers -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR). Buccaneers: OUT: G Davin Joseph, CB Torrie Cox (IR), CB Sammy Davis (IR).

    In my previous lead, I mentioned that I switched on CBS during a boring feature on Sunday NFL Countdown. Why did I go CBS over FOX? That's way too easy... FOX's pre-game show sounds like this:

    Curt Menefee: Now let's move on to our Rapid Fire segment, where fans get to ask questions. The first is from Michael. "Terry, how good are the Steelers?"

    Terry Bradshaw: Ha! Now listen to this. Knock knock? Who's this? Water. Water what? What is knockin on my door? Water Melon. Ha! Terry made a funny!

    Curt Menefee: Our next question is from Tommy. "Howie, how good are the Broncos?"

    Howie Long: Not as good as Radio Shack. If you come into Radio Shack right now, you can buy a digital camera for $49.99, with a $20 rebate. You can't beat those prices. And while you're at it, go to a Ford dealership and pick up a Ford Bronco. They're the best cars out there.

    Curt Menefee: Our next question is from Jason. "Terry, how good are the Panthers?"

    Terry Bradshaw: Jake Delhommie connects with Steve Smith... Steve Smith sounds like my barber down in Louisiana! He pass back, throws back, back, back to Mushin Mohammanid who laterals back to How Are Ya Doin' Jonathan Stewart...

    Curt Menefee: Terry, we're not even doing the highlights yet. How much did you have to drink before the show?

    Terry Bradshaw: Ha! Why did the chicken cross the road? How you ask? Why did he do it? That's easy. Because it was not Thanksgiving yet! Ha! Terry made another funny!

    Ugh, I don't even want to think about it anymore. Let's get to this game:

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers received some bad news Tuesday morning relating to Jordan Gross' status for this contest. Gross is unlikely to play. While Carolina gashed the Chiefs without Gross, it's unlikely they'll be able to do the same versus a legitimate NFL defense.

    I don't like left tackle Frank Omiyale's chances against Gaines Adams. This will be a very key matchup in determining the outcome of this contest, as the Panthers will have to throw more than they'd like to, given that the Buccaneers are sixth at stopping the run.

    I still like Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad against an old group of corners, but if Delhomme doesn't have time to locate them downfield, it may not matter.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers' offensive line had done a great job of pass protecting prior to the Denver game. Perhaps in an attempt to limit his interceptions, Brian Griese held on to the ball longer than he should have, and consequently coughed it up on multiple occasions.

    Griese has an elbow injury, so he may not play in this game. In my opinion, Jeff Garcia would be the better option. Garcia has a dead arm and can't throw the ball with any sort of velocity, but he's far superior to the sack-, fumble- and interception-prone Griese.

    Either way, it won't matter because the Panthers are second versus the pass. Tampa Bay will have to expose Carolina's mediocre rush defense (14th), which allows four yards per carry.

    RECAP: Is Tampa Bay that good? If you think about it, they're 3-2 because they had numerous lucky turnovers in the Packers game, and they were the beneficiaries of a silly Charles "Peanut" Tillman personal foul very deep in their own territory in overtime. The Buccaneers could very well be 1-4 right now, with their sole victory coming against the Falcons.

    Neither offense will be clicking on all cylinders in this contest, but I definitely trust Delhomme over either Griese or Garcia, though Gross' absence quells that opinion.

    Along with having more faith in Delhomme, the Panthers are generally very successful on the road. The visiting squad has also dominated this series. Thus, I'm siding with Carolina, though I'm not a huge fan of the pick.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Battle for first place in the NFC South. Both teams will be completely focused.

    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    After tons of early action on Carolina, a lot of money has come in on the Buccaneers.
  • Percentage of money on Carolina: 69% (145,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Panthers.
  • History: Road Team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Panthers are 26-16 ATS as an underdog the previous 41 instances.
  • Jake Delhomme is 26-13 ATS on the road.
  • Jake Delhomme is 17-8 ATS off back-to-back wins.
  • Jake Delhomme is 22-5 ATS as an underdog in his career (WOW!).
  • Buccaneers are 5-10 ATS off back-to-back wins since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.
  • Opening Total: 37.
  • Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 85 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 20
    Panthers +1.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 37 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Buccaneers 27, Panthers 3

    Oakland Raiders (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-3)
    Line: Saints by 7. Total: 48.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Saints -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Saints -7.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Saints.
    Injuries: Raiders: OUT: WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE Derrick Burgess. Saints: OUT: TE Jeremy Shockey, G Jamar Nesbit (SUSP), DT Sedrick Ellis, DT Hollis Thomas (IR), DT DeMario Pressley (IR), ILB Mark Simoneau (IR), CB Tracy Porter (IR), K Martin Gramatica (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Marques Colston*.

    A few weeks ago, I posted a Keyshawn quote on here. Check it out if you missed it:

    "From listening to Mart, Vince Young definitely has problems." (Commentary: Who the hell is Mart? Do you mean Mort - as in Chris Mortensen? How do you not know the names of your co-hosts?")

    Why is this important? Well, during Sunday NFL Countdown, Chris Berman repeatedly called Mortensen "Martensen," stressing the "Mart" part.


    Boom, in case you're reading this, PPPLLLEEEAASSSEEE convince the big wigs at ESPN to have you and Tom Jackson tape NFL Primetime so that ESPN can air it at midnight and 4 p.m. the next day. I'll never make fun of Keyshawn again (or I will do it more if you want me to!)

    And speaking of Keyshawn, here's another gem: "You're in the first quarter of a four-quarter season." (Commentary: And here I thought the NFL season was comprised of five quarters, possibly six quarters. Heck, I would have guessed seven quarters before four!)

    Of course, one could say the Saints screwed up more times on Monday night than Keyshawn does in a single hour on ESPN. From a blocked field goal, to numerous fumbles, to keeping Martin Gramatica over Taylor Mehlhaff this preseason, New Orleans really should be 4-1 right now. If the Saints had a competent kicker, their only loss would be to the Redskins, whom they actually led before blowing a second-half advantage.

    NEW ORELANS OFFENSE: The Saints moved the chains surprisingly well against the Vikings on Monday night, but killed themselves with numerous errors. That's less likely to happen against the Raiders, who aren't nearly as good defensively.

    While Oakland is a decent 13th versus the run, they're just 21st against the pass, despite the fact that two of the four games they've played were against the ultra-conservative Buffalo and Kansas City. The only high-octane offense they've faced thus far is Denver, and we all saw what the Broncos did to them.

    Drew Brees, who leads the league in passing yardage, is on top of his game right now. I can't really see the Raiders containing him, his receivers or Reggie Bush coming out of the backfield.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: It's a shame the Saints suffered a loss to the Vikings because it wasted a great effort from their defense. New Orleans' stop unit was brilliant, limiting Adrian Peterson to just 32 yards on 21 carries. Tracy Porter was also awesome in coverage, though he was placed on the IR on Tuesday, which is a huge loss because he could have been on pace to be Defensive Rookie of the Year.

    Porter will be missed down the road, but not in this contest; the Raiders just don't have a solid enough passing attack to expose porous secondaries like New Orleans'. Instead, they'll try to run the ball with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. If the Saints' defense plays as well as it did on Monday night, Oakland will be unsuccessful in doing so.

    RECAP: I know the Saints don't have the best track record when it comes to covering home games, but they absolutely need to win this contest if they want to make the playoffs. If they lose here, there's a very good chance they'll be three games behind Carolina for the divisional lead, and Washington and Dallas for the final wildcard spot. Meanwhile, I'm not sure what state of mind the Raiders will be in. They played hard for Lane Kiffin, but will they bring the same intensity for Tom Cable? Is this Cable guy (pun intended) even a good coach? We'll find out on Sunday.

    The Psychology. Edge: Saints.
    The Saints are now in last place. They're two behind Carolina. If they lose this game, they're in huge trouble. This is a must win for them.

    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    I wouldn't expect the Raiders to get much action. A bad sign for Saints fans is that this line has dropped to -7 in my places, though Pinnacle still has it at -7.5.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 83% (164,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Monday Might: Sean Payton is 2-0 ATS after Monday Night Football.
  • Raiders are 10-22 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.
  • Raiders are 7-15 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Saints are 20-37 ATS at home since 2001.
  • Saints are 13-27 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Saints -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Raiders 13
    Saints -7 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Under 48 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Saints 34, Raiders 3

    Cincinnati Bengals (0-5) at New York Jets (2-2)
    Line: Jets by 9.5. Total: 42.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Jets -7.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Jets -7.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Bengals: OUT: QB Carson Palmer*, RB Kenny Irons (IR). Jets: OUT: ILB Brad Kassell (IR).

    I already discussed NFL Primetime, so does that mean you're saved from the NFL Primetime Rant of the Week? Heck no! Ha! I have three grievences with NFL Primetime this week:

    1) What happened to the patented music at the beginning of the show? They were playing some weird stuff instead.

    2) Missing highlights: They showed ZERO clips of Cincinnati and Jacksonville's offense. Those highlight packages only focused on Tony Romo/Terrell Owens and Ben Roethlisberger. Way to screw the public, ESPN.

    3) Out-of-order highlights: On one highlight of the Packers-Falcons game, it was 27-24. The very next highlight from that contest had the score being 0-0. Only Dennis Green is inept enough to blow a 27-24 lead and make it 0-0, and I know for sure that he didn't coach in that game! The new NFL Primetime always does this. They always show the highlights out of order. Chris Berman and Tom Jackson would never do that.

    If you didn't see the Bengals-Cowboys matchup, you may ask, "Why would anyone want to see Cincinnati's offensive highlights? They're 0-5!?" Well, apparently ESPN wants to dumb us down so we all think like that.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals played really well at Dallas. They started slow - Carson Palmer missed a wide-open Chris Perry for an easy touchdown at the end of the first half - but they picked it up as the game went on and nearly pulled the upset.

    I see no reason why Cincinnati will regress in effort and production as an underdog against the Jets. While New York stops the run pretty well, they're a mess when it comes to defending the pass, ranking 24th in the NFL.

    Look for Palmer to have a big game, though there's a chance he could be sacked a lot; the Bengals have surrendered 14 sacks on the year, while the Jets' defense owns 13 themselves.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Bengals' defense isn't as bad as many people think it is. Cincinnati is 19th against the run and an amazing seventh versus the pass. The latter ranking is remarkable when you consider that the Bengals have just three sacks on the year.

    This bodes pretty well for Cincinnati. The Jets have struggled to run the ball with Thomas Jones this year, while Brett Favre seemingly found his groove against a Cardinals defense that was missing Adrian Wilson.

    With Jones being a non-factor, the Bengals can focus on stopping Favre, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, and I have to believe they'll be pretty successful. Favre and company may have thrived against a secondary that was missing its best player, but they couldn't do anything against the Patriots and Chargers the two weeks prior to the Arizona victory.

    RECAP: I like the Bengals for a number of reasons. They're underrated. The Jets are overrated. I don't trust Favre in this offense just yet. As Cincinnati's head coach, Marvin Lewis has been brilliant in his second consecutive road game. And with the action coming in on the host, the line has dropped from -6.5 to -6.

    FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Carson Palmer has been ruled out and Ryan Fitzpatrick will start. I'm still picking the Bengals, but I'm reducing the units down to one.

    The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
    After not trying the first two weeks, the Bengals look desperate for a win.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    After some early action on the Bengals, the public is now on the New York Bretts. This line has been adjusted for the Carson Palmer injury.
  • Percentage of money on New York: 73% (155,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Bye Bye: Eric Mangini is 2-0 ATS off a bye.
  • Road Warrior: Marvin Lewis is 7-1 ATS in his second consecutive road game.
  • Jets are 7-4 ATS as a favorite under Eric Mangini.
  • Opening Line: Jets -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Light wind.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Jets 27, Bengals 21
    Bengals +9 (1 Units) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 42.5 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Jets 26, Bengals 14

    Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
    Line: Colts by 3.5. Total: 38.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 5): Colts -9.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 5): Colts -8.5.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Ravens.
    Injuries: Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), TE Quinn "Miracle Man" Sypniewski (IR), DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), CB Samari Rolle. QUESTIONABLE: RB Willis McGahee. Colts: OUT: OT Tony Ugoh, G Ryan Lilja, DT Anthony McFarland (IR), OLB Tyjuan Hagler, CB Kelvin Hayden, S Bob Sanders*, KR T.J. Rushing (IR).

    A few weeks ago, I suggested a book. I'm going to do the same for another one. About a week ago, I began reading Sold Out, So What! by Max Deale. It's basically a book about how to get tickets to all sort of events - sold-out or not - for as cheap as possible, and it also discusses how to get a better seat once you're at the event. It was really informative and entertaining, and it's an easy read - it's less than 100 pages. You can find out more info about it on the Sold Out, So What! Web site.

    If Vegas released a spread for this game in August, it would have been -13 at the very least. It's amazing how much has changed in five weeks. The Colts can't score against the Texans, while the Ravens are suddenly a playoff contender in a down conference despite playing with a rookie quarterback under center? What's going on here!?

    INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts' inability to put up points against Houston is no exaggeration; sure, they scored 31 points, but seven came off a defensive touchdown, while another seven came from a short field right after one of Sage Rosenchoker's two fumbles. Indianapolis was very lucky to get out of Reliant Stadium alive. They should be 1-3 right now; maybe 0-4 if Brad Clueless switched to Gus Frerotte a week earlier.

    Indianapolis will once again struggle to move the chains versus Baltimore. It's impossible to run against the Ravens, who own the top rush defense in the league. With Joseph Addai as a non-factor, Peyton Manning will have to do everything on his own. That usually wouldn't be a problem, even against a rabid defense like Baltimore's, but Manning just isn't himself this year. I don't know if it's the knee, Marvin Harrison's sudden ineptness, injuries to the offensive line or overuse from too many commercials, but the fact remains that Manning is a mere shadow of his former self.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: While Manning, Addai and Reggie Wayne had problems putting up points against the Texans, Indianapolis' defense couldn't contain Sage Rosenchoker, Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson until the final five minutes of the fourth quarter.

    Bob Sanders' absence has really hurt the Colts, who were already porous against the run. Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are going to trample Indianapolis' stop unit. All Joe Flacco will have to do is convert some third-down short-yardage situations. He's done a great job of that considering he's merely a rookie.

    If Baltimore wants to improve to 3-2, Flacco must limit his turnovers. There's a good chance of that happening, as Indianapolis really struggles to put pressure on the quarterback. Baltimore's superb offensive line will keep everyone out of the backfield.

    RECAP: Is it crazy to believe that the wrong team is favored here? If the Ravens didn't have a rookie signal caller who has yet to win on the road, I'd say so.

    There's a good chance Manning will somehow will his squad to victory again, but I like Baltimore to cover. This is a revenge game for them. If you recall, Indianapolis thrashed them on NBC a year ago, 44-20. This could be payback time.

    The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.
    The Colts "debacled" the Ravens last year, 44-20, on national TV. Baltimore will be out for revenge.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    After some action on Baltimore, it's evened out.
  • Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 58% (140,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Colts.
  • Ravens are 12-7 ATS in road games off a home loss the previous 19 instances.
  • Ravens are 12-20 ATS as an underdog the previous 32 instances (2-1 with John Harbaugh).
  • Ravens are 1-8 ATS on the road since 2007.
  • Ravens are 5-18 ATS after a home game since 2005.
  • Opening Line: Colts -6.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 6 NFL Pick: Colts 26, Ravens 23
    Ravens +3.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Over 38.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Colts 31, Ravens 3

    Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Jaguars at Broncos, Packers at Seahawks, Eagles at 49ers, Cowboys at Cardinals, Patriots at Chargers, Giants at Browns

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 6 NFL Picks - Late Games

    2009 NFL Mock Draft

    2010 NFL Mock Draft

    2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

    College Football Picks


    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

    1 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 (-$770)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2014): -$65

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-41, 55.0% (+$1,500)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 12-17-1, 41.4% (-$1,990)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 144-119-2, 54.8% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$630

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,157-1,978-117, 52.2% (+$10,530)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 694-624-31 (52.7%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 288-251-11 (53.4%)
    Career Over-Under: 1,685-1,655-48 (50.5%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-19 (61.2%)

    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 7-11
    Bears: 8-8
    Bucs: 9-7
    49ers: 8-7
    Eagles: 9-7
    Lions: 8-8
    Falcons: 8-8
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 5-11
    Packers: 13-4
    Panthers: 8-10
    Rams: 8-8
    Redskins: 8-8
    Vikings: 12-4
    Saints: 6-9
    Seahawks: 10-9
    Bills: 7-9
    Bengals: 6-11
    Colts: 8-10
    Broncos: 8-9
    Dolphins: 10-5
    Browns: 9-5
    Jaguars: 10-6
    Chargers: 7-9
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 10-8
    Texans: 8-7
    Chiefs: 9-6
    Patriots: 10-9
    Steelers: 9-8
    Titans: 8-6
    Raiders: 7-9
    Divisional: 36-39 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 14-19 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 29-25 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 47-41 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 35-21 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 16-13 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

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