NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)

NFL Picks (2013): 58-63-1 (+$360)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 28, 5:25 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks - Early Games

New York Jets (4-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)
Line: Bengals by 6. Total: 41.5.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -7.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 7): Bengals -4.
Sunday, Oct. 27, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I'll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I'm being insensitive.

Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Aside from his red-zone pick-six in which he stared down his receiver, Geno Smith was brilliant against the Patriots. You know what that means though. Smith has been good-bad-good-bad-good-bad-good this season. Prior to the Pittsburgh contest two weeks ago, an ESPN sideline reporter said that Smith's teammates were concerned with how he was handling the accolades from his big Monday night victory at Atlanta. What if Smith's ego is once again at an all-time high after defeating the hated Patriots?

Smith will find it difficult to deal with Cincinnati's fierce pass rush. He was sacked four times last week, and the Bengals bring more heat than the Patriots do, thanks to Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. Having said that, Smith gets a big break because cornerback Leon Hall is out for the year with yet another torn Achilles. Excluding Atkins, Hall is arguably the top player on Cincinnati's defense. He'll sorely be missed, especially because it'll force defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer to use Terence Newman and Pacman Jones more often.

Not having to deal with Hall is the break Smith needs because he won't be able to lean on Chris Ivory as much as he did versus New England. The Bengals play the run pretty well, as they just limited Reggie Bush to 50 yards on 20 carries, with a long of only seven yards.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals will also find it difficult to move the chains via the ground game. New York is even better than Cincinnati in terms of stopping the rush, ranking second against it in terms of YPC (3.05). In fact, no team has gained more than 90 yards on the ground (with their running backs; quarterbacks excluded) against New York.

Giovani Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis won't find many running lanes, but the former will be a factor as a pass-catcher coming out of the backfield. He'll have to be because the Jets also bring a ton of pressure. Only the Chiefs and Ravens have more sacks on the year than New York's 24. The Bengals have surrendered 14 sacks in their previous five contests, so they'll definitely be susceptible to the pass-rushing talents of Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson.

The Jets will get to Dalton, unlike the Lions, who brought him down only once. As a consequence, Dalton was able to torch Detroit's 27th-ranked aerial defense with several long bombs that were seen on SportsCenter. What ESPN didn't show you was Dalton completely underthrowing A.J. Green on several instances. Dalton will need to hit nearly all of his long passes this week because he won't get as many chances versus the Jets, who are 13th against the pass.

RECAP: This is a very difficult spot for both teams. They're each coming off emotional, last-second victories. The Jets especially had a big victory, and there's a nasty trend going against them that says to fade teams with winning records coming off home divisional wins. On the other hand, the Bengals are favored by too much. They happen to be playing again four days after this, so they won't be fully focused for the Jets. Also, keep in mind that Rex Ryan is a perfect 3-0 versus Marvin Lewis.

I can't bet on either side, but if I had to, I'd take the underdog and hope that Geno goes "good" twice in a row for the first time.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There's some sharp money on the Jets, as this spread has dropped from +7 to +5.5 or +6. I'm still torn on this game though, so I'll pass.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.
The Bengals won an emotional game at Detroit and now happen to be favorites. The Jets had an equally emotional victory.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 59% (32,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Jets.
  • Bengals are 13-29 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Bengals are 6-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.
  • Marvin Lewis is 5-9 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: .

    Week 8 NFL Pick: Bengals 16, Jets 13
    Jets +6 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 41.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Bengals 49, Jets 9

    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)
    Line: Steelers by 2.5. Total: 40.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 7): Raiders -4.
    Sunday, Oct. 27, 4:05 ET
    Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    If you haven't made your Week 6 selection in the 2013 NFL Survivor Pool, make sure you do so. There are 368 players still remaining out of the original 2,580. The Texans knocked out 60 people last week.

    To see a report of how many teams are being picked for survivor this week, click here.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Three things have precipitated the Steelers' promising two-game winning streak. The first is running back Le'Veon Bell, who has been a major improvement over anyone Pittsburgh had in the backfield beforehand. In addition to trampling the Ravens for 93 yards on 19 carries this past week, Bell was a positive factor when it came to pass blocking. He also lends his services as a receiver coming out of the backfield. Bell won't have as much success on the ground this Sunday - believe it or not, Oakland is ninth against the rush in terms of YPC (3.7) - but the intangibles he brings to the table will still be huge.

    Speaking of pass blocking, the second reason for Pittsburgh's sudden surge is left tackle Kelvin Beachum. The Steelers were desperate enough to trade for the pedestrian Levi Brown during their bye. Brown went down with an injury prior to his first game with his new squad, but Beachum has stepped in and hasn't looked back. Having said that, Beachum faces a tough test this week versus Lamarr Houston, one of the better defensive ends in the NFL.

    The final spark has been Heath Miller's return. Ben Roethlisberger had just one dependable target early in the season, but now he can just throw intermediate passes to his favorite tight end. The Raiders have issues covering at times, so Big Ben should have things going with Miller and Antonio Brown.

    OAKLAND OFFENSE: While the Steelers' offense has improved, issues with the defense still persist despite the combined 22 points allowed to the Jets and Ravens the past couple of weeks.

    The most glaring issue is the pass rush; only the Giants have fewer sacks than Pittsburgh this year. This has to be music to Terrelle Pryor's ears, as Pryor took a whopping 10 sacks at Kansas City prior to his bye. The Chiefs have the best pass rush in the NFL, so that would explain the mind-boggling number.

    The Steelers also aren't very good at stopping the run, ranking 16th against it in terms of YPC. Darren McFadden, who should be completely healthy now following a week off, figures to find plenty of room on the ground, especially with Pittsburgh worrying about Pryor scrambling around.

    RECAP: The sharps are all over the Raiders in this matchup. This spread opened at +3, and as of this writing, Pinnacle is showing +1.5 despite there being about 65-percent action on the Steelers. That's a strong indication of smart money flowing toward Oakland.

    It's no surprise that the "wise guys" are all over the home underdog. This line is a joke. The Steelers and Raiders are about even - they're five spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings - so the latter should be favored by about a field goal. Instead, it's the other way around.

    This is my favorite pick of the week. On top of the incorrect spread, here are some things to consider:

    1. The Steelers are 13-23 against the spread as road favorites under Mike Tomlin. Being a major public team, most casual bettors love playing money on them, especially when they look like sure locks laying a small number as a visitor.

    2. In the past 10 years, Pittsburgh is 1-6 both straight up and against the spread when playing on the West Coast. Their lone victory on the Pacific Ocean came in 2005, the year they won the Super Bowl. Call me crazy, but this is not a Super Bowl-caliber squad.

    3. The Steelers are coming off an emotional victory over their biggest rival. Last year, after they beat Baltimore, they lost to the Chargers by 10 points at home.

    4. This game will be sold out. This hasn't been common for the Raiders' home contests in recent seasons, but the fans are excited about Pryor and their team in general. The Black Hole will be rocking.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders are still my favorite pick of the week. Steelers -2.5 is such a square play. Think about it this way: If you were to switch locations, this line would translate to Steelers -8.5 over the Raiders. That's about as much as the Chiefs were favored over Oakland. So, are Pittsburgh and Kansas City on the same level? Of course not. The Raiders should be favored, but they're not because public perception is down on them.

    SUNDAY MORNING: If you didn't catch it, Chad Millman confirmed that the sharps are all over the Raiders.

    The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.
    The Steelers are coming off a tough win against rival Baltimore and now are road favorites over the Raiders before playing the Patriots.

    The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
    No surprise the public is picking the Steelers.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 64% (28,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Raiders.
  • Steelers are 23-11 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 34 instances.
  • Steelers are 13-23 ATS as road favorites since 2007.
  • Steelers are 6-17 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.
  • Raiders are 16-27 ATS in October since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Steelers -3.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: .

    Week 8 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Steelers 20
    Raiders +2.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Over 40.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Raiders 21, Steelers 18

    Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1)
    Line: Broncos by 10.5. Total: 57.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -14.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 7): Broncos -14.
    Sunday, Oct. 27, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Broncos.

    If you didn't catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 7 has been posted - the Walking Bucs run rampant in the city of Tampa.

    DENVER OFFENSE: What happened to Peyton Manning? He was so sharp during the early stages of the season. However, the ball came fluttering oddly out of his hand on Sunday night. Was it because of jitters from being back in his old stadium? Was it Indianapolis' improved defense? Or is Manning just showing the declining arm strength that some of the keen observers pointed out, even during his winning streak?

    Perhaps it's a combination of all three. If so, Manning will definitely improve in this contest. Whereas the Colts have a growing stop unit, the Redskins have a putrid defense that can't prevent anyone from scoring. They surrendered 41 points to the Bears, who had Josh McCown playing quarterback for three quarters, for crying out loud. On top of that, Brandon Meriweather will be out because of a suspension. Meriweather stinks, but he has to be better than whomever Washington had behind him, right?

    The Redskins struggle to stop both the run and the pass, so the Broncos will be able to beat them in both facets. In fact, the only thing Washington does well defensively is get to the quarterback with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, but Manning releases the ball way too quickly for them to be huge factors in this contest.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: ESPN Redskins' John Keim wrote that last week's victory over the Bears "marked the first official return" of Robert Griffin following his knee injury. Griffin has definitely been playing better than he did during the early stages of the season, but I don't know if I'd say it's his "official return." There's no doubt Griffin is moving extremely well, but his mechanics and such still concern me. Also, completing 18-of-29 passes against the Bears isn't such an impressive feat. Chicago has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, so it shouldn't be a surprise that Griffin was able to rebound from his 19-of-39 performance at Dallas the week before.

    Of course, it's not like the Broncos have a stalwart stop unit themselves. They rank 31st against the pass in terms of YPA and won't have Champ Bailey yet again. I thought Von Miller's return to the lineup would revitalize this group, and while he did play well, helping the Broncos achieve four sacks against Andrew Luck, the defense as a whole still played very poorly.

    The good news for Denver is that it can still stop the run effectively. In fact, the Broncos are tops in the league in that regard, limiting the opposition to just 2.79 yards per carry. So much of Washington's offense is predicated on establishing a solid ground attack, so Denver should be able to play the Redskins much better than they did against the Colts.

    RECAP: This spread was -14 last week, according to the Las Vegas Hilton. We're getting some value with the Broncos right now, which is pretty rare.

    That's one reason I like Denver to cover. Another is that very good teams are usually focused heading into their bye. The Broncos will want to take care of business here prior to their week off, especially given that they're coming off a loss.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Still two units on the Broncos. I was pleased to hear Tony Kornheiser pick the Redskins to cover the spread. I love Kornheiser on PTI, but he might be the squarest person out there when it comes to picking NFL games.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 58% (46,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Redskins.
  • Peyton Manning is 3-7 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite of 12+.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -12.
  • Opening Total: 55.
  • Weather: .

    Week 8 NFL Pick: Broncos 41, Redskins 24
    Broncos -10.5 (2 Units) -- Correct; +$200
    Over 57.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Broncos 45, Redskins 21

    Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4)
    Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 46.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -2.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 7): Cardinals -2.5.
    Sunday, Oct. 27, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 21, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is Jerks of the Mall: Hot Chicks vs. Ugly A**holes.

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: If you needed proof that Matt Ryan is an excellent quarterback, all you had to do was watch last week's game. Despite missing Julio Jones, Roddy White and Steven Jackson, Ryan went 20-of-26 for 273 yards and three touchdowns. His starting wideouts were Harry Douglas and someone named Drew Davis, while his main running back mustered only two yards per carry. Yet, he still managed to prevail.

    Ryan will find things much more difficult this week, however. Whereas the Buccaneers didn't apply any pressure on the quarterback whatsoever, the Cardinals will definitely get to Ryan behind his patchwork offensive line. Arizona has been much better at getting to opposing signal-callers ever since Daryl Washington returned from his four-game suspension; the team has 12 sacks in the past three weeks.

    In addition to the Cardinals' pass rush, Ryan will also have to worry about Patrick Peterson. While the Buccaneers are dumb because they didn't have Darrelle Revis cover anyone in particular, Arizona has Peterson shadow the opponent's top wideout. That could either be White or Douglas, depending on the former's availability. On the bright side, Ryan could have Jackson back at his disposal. Jackson is set to practice this week, which is a good sign. The Cardinals just surrendered 106 rushing yards to the Seahawks, so Jackson's return would be a huge boost.

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals would love to have their own play-maker healthy. Larry Fitzgerald has been on the field, but he clearly hasn't been himself because of a lingering hamstring injury. Arizona has enjoyed some time off after its Thursday night contest, so perhaps Fitzgerald has had an opportunity to heal up.

    The Cardinals will be hoping that's the case because they need some sort of offensive spark. Carson Palmer has been a turnover machine this year, committing at least two give-aways in all but one game this season. Perhaps that will change for only one week because the Falcons have the fewest take-aways (5) in the NFC. That's because they can't get to the quarterback at all, as only six teams have fewer sacks than they do on the year. Palmer has to be loving the sound of that because his offensive line is a mess.

    Something that would benefit Palmer is getting Andre Ellington more involved. I harped on this last week, but the Arizona coaching staff ignored my (and everyone else's) pleas, giving their rookie back only five touches. That was completely inexcusable because Ellington is such an explosive play-maker. Atlanta doesn't stop the run particularly well (25th; 4.23 YPC), so Ellington could expose that liability - if, you know, the Cardinals actually decide to use him.

    RECAP: I was hoping the Falcons would be a road favorite so I could take Arizona as a home underdog for a big play, but that's sadly not the case. As it stands now, I'm torn on this game. On one hand, the Cardinals have had plenty of time to prepare for Atlanta. On the other hand, I like the idea of getting points with Ryan (12-6 ATS an underdog in non-divisional games).

    With a gun to my head, I'd take the Falcons, who might be out on a mission to prove to everyone that they can still be a factor. They definitely heard from everyone that they were out of it upon losing Julio Jones for the year. I think they'll be competitive in most games the rest of the way.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still want no part of this game.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    A no-brainer for some bettors.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 71% (30,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Cardinals are 20-9 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 8 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Cardinals 24
    Falcons +2.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 46 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Cardinals 27, Falcons 13

    Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5)
    Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 47.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 7): Packers -7.
    Sunday, Oct. 27, 8:30 ET
    Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Packers.

    I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around. I actually met my ex-girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, this way. We exchanged e-mails about Aaron3619 and then hit it off, ultimately meeting in July 2012.

    I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

    I added a second fake account this year - Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I've written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

    Unfortunately, some a**holes with no sense of humor decided to flag Miss Vivian as a troller, so I had to make a new account. Kevin Reilly has been born!

    Go here to see all of the Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: As Leelee put it quite eloquently in the picks discussion thread, Leslie Frazier has no balls. He used an injury excuse to bench Christian Ponder for Matt Cassel earlier in the season, and now he's doing the same thing with Josh Freeman to go back to Ponder. That is, if you even believe that Freeman has a concussion. Where'd this "concussion" come from anyway? He didn't suffer one during the Giants game. The Vikings hadn't practiced prior to the "concussion" being diagnosed. Did Freeman get hit with this "concussion" while watching film of that Monday night disaster? Because I feel like I was concussed Monday night.

    I'm just frustrated. I was set to wager at least two units on the Packers as an automatic fade of Freeman. I've been saying since the summer that Freeman is not in the right frame of mind to play football right now, so it was no surprise to see him faceplant like that on national TV. Ponder, who will draw the start, is bad too, but not nearly as brutal as Freeman. He's at least a functional quarterback. He'll be able to perhaps complete half of his passes and not set the all-time record for most overthrows in a single game.

    Of course, Ponder will need Adrian Peterson to pick up big chunks of yardage. That may not happen, however, because Peterson doesn't have nearly the same explosion that he maintained last season. Peterson told the media that his hamstring was tight against the Giants. Soft-tissue injuries tend to linger, so it might give him some problems against the Packers, who are eighth against the run in terms of YPC (3.62). If so, that'll make things extremely difficult for Ponder, who will be throwing into a secondary that has improved by leaps and bounds ever since Morgan Burnett made his return to the lineup in Week 5.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: No James Jones, no Randall Cobb, no Jermichael Finley. And yet Aaron Rodgers is still somehow getting it done. He went 25-of-36 for 260 yards and three touchdowns against a strong Cleveland defense last week. Of course, this shouldn't be a surprise because he's arguably the best quarterback in the NFL.

    Rodgers still has Jordy Nelson at his disposal, who will be freed up this week after being smothered by Joe Haden in the previous game. Rodgers will also help Jarrett Boykin have another big performance. Rodgers actually told the media a year ago that Boykin would be a "big-time player" eventually, and that apparently has come to fruition. Rodgers will easily find Nelson and Boykin downfield because he won't have to deal with any sort of pass rush. Only four teams (Jaguars, Bears, Giants, Steelers) have produced fewer sacks than the Vikings have this season.

    Helping Rodgers through these barrage of injuries has been Eddie Lacy. The second-round rookie has exceeded expectations thus far. He has eclipsed 82 rushing yards in each of his previous three starts and even became a big factor in the passing game last week, catching five balls for 26 yards. The Vikings do stop the run well (5th, 3.41 YPC), but they'll be too worried about Rodgers to focus on bringing down Lacy.

    RECAP: As I said, I'm pretty pissed that Freeman is starting. I don't feel comfortable laying nine with the Packers at Minnesota if he's not the quarterback. I still think they're the right side, but the Vikings will at least be competitive at home with Ponder at the helm.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing here. Again, I was hoping for Freeman to start so I could continue to fade him. By the way, my apologies to the Minnesota coaching staff if Freeman is, in fact, faking his concussion. I assumed Leslie Frazier made it up so he could go back to Ponder, but Freeman could have easily lied. Either way, as someone who knows what's been going on with the beleaguered quarterback, I find it highly unlikely that Freeman suffered a concussion of any sort.

    SUNDAY MORNING: The sharps are betting this down. It's already Packers -7.5 or -7 -120. If you don't agree with the sharps, wait until kickoff. This line could hit -7 -115 or maybe even -7 -110.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
    Why would anyone bet on Josh Freeman?
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 76% (34,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Packers have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 46-27 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 3-7 ATS on the road as a 6.5 favorite or more.
  • Opening Line: Packers -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 50.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 8 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Vikings 20
    Packers -7.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 47 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Packers 44, Vikings 31

    Seattle Seahawks (6-1) at St. Louis Rams (3-4)
    Line: Seahawks by 13. Total: 44.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -5.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 7): Seahawks -15.
    Monday, Oct. 28, 8:30 ET
    Discuss Week 8 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

    This week on ESPN, we're going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here's what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, home of the Rams, who... wait, what's this? The producer is handing me a note. It says to make sure to congratulate Matt Millen. Congratulate him for what?

    Emmitt: Richard, our friend and contatriot Matt Miller have had a movie made about him call It's a Football Lives. They profile his playin' career and when he was the owner of the Lion.

    Reilly: Ah, right, I remember seeing commercials for that. I guess NFL Network will make a feature about anyone nowadays.

    Davis: Not just anyone, Kevin. They kicked things off with a feature on Bill Belichick, Kevin. That was a two-parter, Kevin. Do you know who was after that, Kevin? A double feature on Reggie White and Jerome Brown. How about Kurt Warner, who was after that? Kevin, what about Walter Payton? He was next. Then who could forget Ed Sabol? How about Mike Ditka? What about Tom Landry, Kevin? That was the penultimate episode of the first season, Kevin. Penultimate means second-to-last, Kevin. Do you know what the word for third-to-last is, Kevin? How about antepenultimate, Kevin? Do you know who was featured in the first season finale, Kevin? The one and only Al Davis, of course. Now, let's get to Season 2, Kevin. It started with...

    Reilly: Charles, shut the f*** up, I don't care. Ugh, the producer is still telling me to congratulate Millen, so congrats, Millen. You were a good player, but you sucked as a GM, so I don't know why they made a movie about you.

    Millen: Thanks, Kevin, that means a good deal to me even though I have to say that I was a bit disappointed by how it turned out.

    Reilly: Ugh, I know I'm going to regret this, but why?

    Millen: The whole Joey Harrington ordeal. They didn't get to the whole truth behind it.

    Reilly: What, he was secretly good, so you deserve credit for drafting him?

    Millen: Oh, quite the opposite, Kevin. I drafted Joey because after checking out every square inch of him at the Combine - and I do mean every square inch - I determined he was 100-percent USDA Man. The night after I drafted him, I invited him back to my hotel with the promise that there would be fresh kielbasas waiting for us. He obliged. I was so happy, Kevin, until we got to the room, and he asked if I had any caviar to go with the kielbasas. This is when I determined I made a huge mistake by drafting him so high. It turned out that Joey was about 17-percent USDA Man; not 100.

    Griese: Kielbasas and caviar go well together.

    Millen: You fool! You have just exposed yourself as someone who is less than 20-percent USDA Man! I would approximate 11 percent!

    Tollefson: Guys, not to interject, but I have an idea for the next a Foootball Life. They should profile the cheerleaders. Not that women deserve to be profiled or anything, but this will have an excuse to have cameras in their dressing room. We can watch them strip down naked, change and then go home and make dinner for their husbands.


    Tollefson: Herm, this is the second week in a row that you've defended women now. I'm starting to get the feeling that you don't think a woman's sole purpose in life is to cook and clean naked for her man.

    Reilly: Yeah, you tell him Tolly. Herm is an a**hole. We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I was afraid to bet on or against the Bills a few weeks ago when Thaddeus Lewis was making his debut because Lewis was a huge question mark. We knew nothing about him because his only NFL action was a start in a meaningless Week 17 game. I'm afraid of putting money on a side when there's an unknown in the game.

    Kellen Clemens is not an unknown. We've seen him play quarterback many times before, and we've seen him struggle on most occasions. His career numbers include a 51.8 completion percentage, 10 touchdowns (7 passing, 3 rushing) and 16 turnovers (13 interceptions, 3 fumbles). He's just not any good, and making things worse, he has to battle arguably the top defense in the NFC behind a pedestrian offensive line that just surrendered four sacks to the Panthers. Only three teams have more sacks on the year than the Seahawks (Chiefs, Ravens, Jets). Seattle is coming off a seven-sack explosion at Arizona.

    The Rams were a bit better offensively prior to Sam Bradford's injury because of Zac Stacy, who has given the Rams a viable backfield option for a change. Stacy, however, won't get much versus Seattle's third-ranked ground defense, which has permitted only 58 combined rushing yards to its previous two opponents.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Rams just had issues stopping a mobile quarterback in Cam Newton, so how will they handle a superior one? Russell Wilson is playing outstanding football right now, and the scary thing is that he may have Percy Harvin at his disposal for the first time. There's a chance Harvin will suit up for this contest, which would add a whole new element to Seattle's offense.

    Of course, the Seahawks will stick with what they're best at, which is running the ball with both Wilson and Marshawn Lynch. The Rams currently ranked 28th versus the rush in terms of YPC, so they don't stand a chance against Lynch, especially when they have to worry about Wilson's scrambles as well.

    The one shot St. Louis has of slowing down Seattle's scoring attack is to put pressure on Wilson. They managed to do this in a Week 17 matchup last year and nearly pulled off a victory on the road. However, Chris Long, who was a beast in that matchup, just hasn't looked the same this year. So, even though Seattle's offensive line is in shambles right now, Wilson may see less pressure than he did in that close victory.

    RECAP: The Rams are an automatic fade for me with Clemens at the helm as long as they're not taking on another bad team. The Seahawks are playing awesome football right now, so I'm going to select them for three units.

    Now, before you shout, "You're an idiot for betting on a double-digit road favorites," consider this: There have been 17 double-digit home divisional underdogs since 2002. You know what their spread record is? It's 8-9. Thus, if you've bet on all of these crap teams, you would've lost a bit of money. Now, if you flip this the other way, 9-8 isn't enough to wager on one side, but it's useful to be able to dispel the notion that wagering on double-digit favorites is a bad idea.

    In fact, I think this line is four points too low. I have the Seahawks calculated at -15. If they could rip apart the Cardinals on a short week, imagine what they'll be able to do to the Clemens-led Rams with some extra rest.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -13 or -13.5. It shouldn't matter. As long as it's less than 14.5, I like the Seahawks for three units (because -14 is a key number). Basically, the sportsbooks are crapping their pants because they can't make this spread high enough. Both the public and the sharps are all over Seattle. This isn't a big concern though because Vegas won so much money this year in the NFL.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.

    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    No surprise here.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 87% (55,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Seahawks have won 14 of the last 16 meetings.
  • Seahawks are 19-31 ATS on the road since 2006 if they're not coming off an away loss.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 8 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Rams 3
    Seahawks -13 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Under 44 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Seahawks 14, Rams 9

    Week 8 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Carolina�at�Tampa Bay, Dallas�at�Detroit, Cleveland�at�Kansas City, Miami�at�New England, Buffalo�at�New Orleans, NY Giants�at�Philadelphia, San Francisco�at�Jacksonville

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

  • Teaser: Raiders +8.5, Falcons +8.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
  • Moneyline Underdog: Cowboys +140 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Moneyline Underdog: Dolphins +210 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Moneyline Underdo: Jets +200 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50

    2018 NFL Mock Draft - March 30

    2017 NFL Mock Draft - March 29

    NFL Picks - Feb. 7

    Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 7

    2017 NBA Mock Draft - June 23

    NFL Free Agents


    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 20, 2016): 0-2 (-$750)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2016): 0-1 (-$200)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 20, 2016): 0-1 (-$550)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 20, 2016): 1-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 20, 2016): -$200

    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)

    2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 147-127-10, 53.6% (+$955)
    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-140-1, 46.8% (+$95)
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$995

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
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    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
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    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
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    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
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    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
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    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
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    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 9-8 (2014-15: 14-19)
    Bears: 5-10 (2014-15: 14-17)
    Bucs: 8-8 (2014-15: 18-14)
    49ers: 11-5 (2014-15: 21-10)
    Eagles: 7-9 (2014-15: 16-16)
    Lions: 7-9 (2014-15: 19-13)
    Falcons: 11-7 (2014-15: 17-15)
    Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-15: 14-21)
    Giants: 8-7 (2014-15: 14-17)
    Packers: 11-6 (2014-15: 20-15)
    Panthers: 11-4 (2014-15: 15-22)
    Rams: 8-7 (2014-15: 16-15)
    Redskins: 6-10 (2014-15: 20-13)
    Vikings: 8-8 (2014-15: 20-13)
    Saints: 12-4 (2014-15: 13-17)
    Seahawks: 11-7 (2014-15: 16-19)
    Bills: 10-6 (2014-15: 14-15)
    Bengals: 3-12 (2014-15: 13-19)
    Colts: 7-8 (2014-15: 14-18)
    Broncos: 6-10 (2014-15: 18-13)
    Dolphins: 10-6 (2014-15: 18-13)
    Browns: 5-9 (2014-15: 16-13)
    Jaguars: 6-9 (2014-15: 12-19)
    Chargers: 8-8 (2014-15: 17-15)
    Jets: 7-7 (2014-15: 17-14)
    Ravens: 6-8 (2014-15: 17-15)
    Texans: 11-6 (2014-15: 12-20)
    Chiefs: 11-6 (2014-15: 18-15)
    Patriots: 8-9 (2014-15: 22-14)
    Steelers: 10-8 (2014-15: 18-14)
    Titans: 10-5 (2014-15: 13-15)
    Raiders: 9-8 (2014-15: 14-18)
    Divisional: 44-47 (2011-15: 222-225)
    2x Game Edge: 17-10 (2011-15: 86-97)
    2x Psych Edge: 43-32 (2011-15: 151-133)
    2x Vegas Edge: 23-32 (2011-15: 218-223)
    2x Trend Edge: 42-31 (2011-15: 139-128)
    Double Edge: 18-14 (2011-15: 59-61)
    Triple Edge: 3-0 (2011-15: 3-3)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-15: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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