NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2012

NFL Picks (Preseason 2012): 6-9-1 (-$1,440)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2012): 3-13 (-$2,250)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2012): 8-7-1 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2012): 7-9 (+$70)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2012): 7-8 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2012): 7-7 (-$340)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2012): 9-5 (+$1,670)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2012): 7-5-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2012): 6-8 (-$450)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2012): 8-6 (+$240)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2012): 8-6 (+$730)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2012): 6-7-1 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2012): 5-9-2 (-$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2012): 8-7-1 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2012): 8-8 (-$1,110)

NFL Picks (2012): 103-114-7 (-$2,780)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 17, 6:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)
Line: Bengals by 5.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Bengals -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Bengals -3.
Thursday, Dec. 13, 8:20 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

Week 15 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday, per the new schedule. I’ve received mix reaction to this, so voice your opinion via e-mail or in the comment box below. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

WEEK 14 RECAP: Things looked very promising around 4:30. My early picks were 7-4, +$330 with a correct selection on my November NFL Pick of the Month (Eagles +7.5). A few hours later, it all turned to crap. The Cardinals weren’t competitive whatsoever, the Saints killed themselves with dumb mistakes, while the Dolphins and Lions both had inexplicable non-covers. Seriously, the 49ers were up 20-13 – my predicted score – with a couple of minutes left. They were just trying to run out the clock, but Colin Kaepernick broke free. And then there were the Lions, who were driving, up 14-3, when Matthew Stafford somehow lost the football. With Brandon Pettigrew injured, Detroit couldn’t move the chains after that.

I should have won with the Lions and Dolphins, but I had several bad calls with the Bears, Saints and Cardinals. After doing some research, I realized what I did wrong in those games, so I at least know I won’t make the same mistakes again. As for other new mistakes? Well, I can’t promise anything about those.

Now, it’s time to review what the media overreacted to last week:

1. The media loves the Colts and is talking them up after that comeback against the Lions, but the defense is still awful.

2. ESPN people are beginning to doubt Jim Harbaugh’s decision to go with Colin Kaepernick. It’s doubtful they’d feel that way if David Akers hit a kick in overtime.

3. The Bengals are getting tons of respect – even though they’ve beaten three crap teams in the past three weeks.

Fading the media once again went a perfect 3-0 in Week 14 after going 3-0 the weekend before and 3-0-1 in Week 12. Here’s what the media is overreacting to this time:

1. Everyone thinks the Bears are done now because they’ve lost Brian Urlacher. The defense actually played very well at Minnesota if you exclude that opening drive.

2. Most of the ESPN people were asking what was wrong with the Steelers.

3. The media is criticizing the Falcons more than ever.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Nick Foles has improved every week. He was highly impressive at Tampa Bay, going 32-of-51 for 381 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, leading an 11-point, fourth-quarter comeback in the process. Granted, he did this against one of the worst secondaries in football, but given that he is just a rookie, it was impressive nonetheless.

Foles will have a greater challenge this week, given that the Bengals have a much better pass defense than Tampa. They’re 11th against aerial attacks (6.8 YPA) compared to the Buccaneers’ No. 30 ranking. A major reason for this is all of the pressure Cincinnati puts on the opposing quarterback. The Bengals have 41 sacks, which leads the NFL, including 18 in the past five weeks. Geno Atkins is the best defensive tackle in football, and the interior of Philadelphia’s offensive line will have its hands full with him.

Foles did everything himself last week, as Bryce Brown cooled off, gaining just six yards on 12 carries. The Buccaneers are No. 1 versus the rush, but the Bengals have held up well against the run lately, surrendering a total of 55 rushing yards to their previous two opponents. In other words, Brown will be slightly better than he was on Sunday, but Foles will have to do the majority of the work again.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Eagles played very well defensively against the Buccaneers, which wasn’t a huge surprise or anything, considering they fired defensive line coach Jim Washburn and scraped the ineffective wide-nine. They limited Josh Freeman to just 14-of-34 passing for 189 yards. His completion percentage of 41.2 was his second-worst of the year.

Philadelphia’s secondary is unlikely to force upon a similar figure on Andy Dalton, given that he’s completed at least half of his passes in every single game this season. He went 20-of-33 last week, and that could’ve been even better had A.J. Green not dropped a couple of passes, including one touchdown. Green is too good not to make amends for that. He’ll rebound against a Philadelphia secondary that still has glaring holes, most notably Nnamdi Asomugha.

The Bengals should be able to run the ball as well. BenJarvus Green-Ellis just had a three-game streak of 100 rushing yards broken because he didn’t receive nearly as many carries as he should have. Green-Ellis has been very effective lately because of the fierce blocking of right tackle Andre Smith, who is finally living up to expectations. The Eagles just gave up 128 rushing yards to Doug Martin.

RECAP: I suck with these Thursday night games. As one commenter pointed out, I’m 3-11-1, -$1,990 on Thursday nights this year.

Weird stuff happens on Thursdays. Two weeks ago, Drew Brees threw a career-high five interceptions. Last week, the Broncos sputtered in the red zone for the first time all year. What could happen this Thursday? Well, I’d like the Eagles to win because I’m picking them – the Bengals have more important games on the horizon – but I’m not paying to find out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -5 (BetUS) or -5.5 (5Dimes, Pinny, Bovada), depending on where you’re looking. If I were betting on this game, I’d wait to see if I could get +6 on the Eagles. However, I can’t put any money on Philadelphia because of my dubious Thursday track record.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Bengals have the Steelers and Ravens after this. This game doesn’t matter very much.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

This is a no-brainer for many people.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 70% (48,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Bengals are 11-26 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 5-14 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Andy Dalton is 0-4 ATS as a favorite coming off a loss.

Opening Line: Bengals -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Eagles 23, Bengals 20
Eagles +5.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 34, Eagles 13
NFL Game Recaps

Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Chicago Bears (8-5)
Line: Packers by 2.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Packers -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Packers -2.5.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

VEGAS RECAP: The sportsbooks lost a record amount of money five weeks ago when all seven highly bet teams covered. However, they’ve now rebounded three weekends in a row. Only two of the four highly bet teams covered (Broncos, Packers lost money; Titans, Panthers won money), but remember that sportsbooks get the vig and parlay/teaser money. Also keep in mind that big favorites like the Buccaneers and Steelers went down, which broke up a ton of teasers.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: If the Bears are going to win this game, Jay Cutler will need to overcome his demons. He’s 1-6 against the Packers and has almost always performed miserably. In those seven contests, he’s 115-of-216 for 1,383 yards, seven touchdowns and a whopping 17 interceptions. That gives him a completion percentage of 53.2 and a YPA of 6.4.

Cutler has shown no signs of improving versus Green Bay; he was 11-of-27 for 126 yards, one touchdown and four picks in the week 2 matchup against them. And making matters worse, Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson could be back for this game. Matthews’ return would be most devastating for Cutler because of his anemic offensive line.

The Bears will have to establish the run to keep Cutler safe, especially given that he’s coming off a shoulder/neck injury. They should be able to do this, given that the Packers have surrendered at least 98 rushing yards to every team they’ve battled since their Week 10 bye.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Speaking of running the ball, the Packers have shockingly done that very well the past two weeks, gashing the Vikings and Lions for a combined 245 yards on the ground. Having that type of balance is very important for Green Bay, given the state of its atrocious offensive line.

The Packers should be extra potent in terms of rushing the ball because the Bears have been incredibly weak in that department recently. The last time they didn’t allow 100-plus yards on the ground was Week 8. This will only help Aaron Rodgers avoid Julius Peppers and a Chicago pass rush that has the 10th most sacks in the NFL (33).

Rodgers wasn’t very effective himself against the Bears the last time he played them. He went 22-of-32 for 219 yards, one touchdown and an interception. However, things are different now. Brian Urlacher’s leadership is missing in the middle of the field, while stud corner Tim Jennings may not play again. Plus, Rodgers has Randall Cobb as a reliable weapon now; Cobb was not nearly as big of a factor in the offense back then, given that he had just two touches in that Week 2 tilt.

RECAP: There are some key trends favoring the Bears, but they’ll only keep me from betting Green Bay. The Packers own Cutler, so that’s why I’m siding with them. Oh, and by the way, the under has hit every single time Cutler has battled Green Bay.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This looks better at -2.5, but I’m still going to lay off it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Tons of action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 80% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Jay Cutler is 1-6 vs. the Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 40-22 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 21-10 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Jay Cutler is 29-49 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Packers 21, Bears 14
Packers -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; -$0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 21, Bears 13

New York Giants (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (11-2)
Line: Falcons by 1. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Falcons -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Falcons -2.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. Here are some brief ones from my picks page comment board:

Damn you and your “expertise” Walt. You really suck at this. I really don’t understand how you could be so good at this before your website became popular. But now that you actually have a readership, you consistently lose. WTF. 3 straight losing weeks for you dude.

It’s all a conspiracy. They’ve been keeping track of my hits, and as they’ve grown, they told the officials to make sure my picks don’t cover.

Walterd suck! Dolphin,NO,ARZ.

In my defense, that one Miami Dolphin deserved to cover.

Walter, why do u continue Betn on suky teams??? Chiefs? Dolphins? Cardinals? Your never gona learn! Wow. I’ve never dogged u but dam

You mean the Chiefs, Dolphins and Cardinals, who were a combined 5-3-1 against the spread in the three weeks prior to this past Sunday?

so it seems like the only thing wAlt got correct today was Philly. everything else with any units lost. Damn walt…. u suck a** now. fade walt n win!!

Don’t rob me of that Tennessee win! That prevented me from going -$1,500 or worse, so that was obviously clutch.

These are the picks and units of a losing gambler that doesnt know what hes doing any more….Eagles, Saints LMAO

You’re right, I mostly don’t know what I’m doing. That’s why I went 1-1 with those.

Was there any point at all to the dumb make believe story between Brady, Wes and Brandon in the Rams-Bills section? any reason at all? What was the point? Great to talk about NFL suicide. About the only thing you can predict these days. Moron.

There are two points to it: 1) to give people with a sense of humor something to laugh at and 2) to give people with sand in their vag more sand in the vages.

Walter if no not win then I will lost my roof

It looks like you’ve already lost your brain, so a roof shouldn’t seem like a big deal.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Wow, David Wilson. The rookie exploded against the Saints last week after Ahmad Bradshaw went down with a knee injury. He rushed for 100 yards and two touchdowns on just 13 carries, and this was after he compiled 227 kickoff return yards and a score. Though the Giants still don’t trust him on third downs, he gives them a great speed element out of the backfield.

This obviously has to be a concern for the Falcons. They have a below-average run defense that is ranked 22nd (4.54 YPC). Even DeAngelo Williams looked functional against them this past Sunday, which has to be alarming. Whether they’re doing it with Wilson or Bradshaw, the Giants will run all over Atlanta’s stop unit.

The one thing the Falcons do well defensively is take away the opposing No. 1 receiver. However, the Giants essentially have two top wideouts and a very capable pass-catching tight end, so it’ll be very difficult for them to contain a hot Eli Manning, especially considering that they don’t put much pressure on the quarterback; they have four sacks in their previous three games.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: There are a couple of things the Falcons don’t do well offensively either. One is that they can’t run the ball at all. Michael Turner is done, while Jacquizz Rodgers is still not being utilized enough. New York has surrendered 278 rushing yards in its previous two games, but restricting Turner to minimal gains won’t be a problem.

The Falcons also don’t pass protect very well. The sack numbers don’t show it because Matt Ryan gets rid of the ball quickly, but the right side of the offensive line is a concern. Also, left tackle Sam Baker can be exposed by elite pass-rushers, and the Giants certainly have plenty of those.

New York absolutely has to put tons of pressure on Ryan because it has major concerns in the back seven. The team just doesn’t have the personnel to contain Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, especially if safety Kenny Phillips misses another game.

RECAP: This is a tough one to call. On one hand, the Giants are heating up and look poised to begin their annual late-season run. Plus, they’re very good on the road. On the other hand, this is a statement game for the Falcons; they can silence the critics a bit by defeating the defending Super Bowl champions. Oh, and then there’s Ryan’s home record that needs to be considered.

I think I’m going with the Giants, but this is about as close to a coin flip as you can get.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still see this as a coin flip. Great cases can be made for both teams.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

This seems like a statement game for Atlanta.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Why wouldn’t you bet the Giants to beat Atlanta?

Percentage of money on New York: 73% (70,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Giants are 35-13 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 26-11 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Matt Ryan is 23-12 ATS at home.

Mike Smith is 6-1 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Mike Smith is 16-6 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Giants 34, Falcons 31
Giants +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 34, Giants 0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (5-8)
Line: Saints by 4. Total: 55.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Saints -4.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Saints -3.5.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. He once again didn’t update his Web site, https://sites.google.com/site/realjohnmossfootball/ this past week. I actually found a message he sent to me:

“Godbye?” Does he mean goodbye? I hope not! I enjoy talking to him so much.

Maybe it’s not a permanent goodbye. Yeah, perhaps he was just off to have sex with his newest girlfriend. Here’s a picture of her:

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: What is wrong with Drew Brees? He has nine interceptions in his previous three games. You could say that he’s forcing the issue because having his awful defense on the other side means that he needs to score all of the time. But that doesn’t describe what happened in Atlanta two Thursdays ago. Four of his five picks were poor throws when the contest was hardly out of reach. It makes me wonder if he’s lost a step.

Fortunately for Brees, taking on the Buccaneers and their inept secondary is exactly what the doctor ordered. Brees went 27-of-37 for 377 yards, four touchdowns and a pick when he battled Tampa Bay in Week 7 – and this was back when starting cornerback Eric Wright was still playing. Wright isn’t very good, but he’s much better than what the Buccaneers have now. He’s still out with a suspension.

Because New Orleans’ offensive line is a mess, Brees needs to depend on a solid rushing attack to keep from getting sacked and hurried on nearly every play. The Saints have actually run for 244 combined yards the past two weeks, but they’re not getting anything against Tampa’s No. 1 ground defense. The Buccaneers just limited a red-hot Bryce Brown to just six yards on 12 carries.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Like Brees, Josh Freeman is struggling coming into this game. He’s maintained completion percentages of 46.2 and 41.2 in his previous two contests. But also like Brees, Freeman will benefit greatly from a matchup against a very weak secondary. Freeman went 24-of-42 for 420 yards and three touchdowns in the aforementioned Week 7 contest.

Should Freeman expect similar numbers? I’d say so considering Eli Manning just torched the Saints. Plus, New Orleans still doesn’t have any sort of pass rush. Its defense has just one sack in the past three weeks, which is just pathetic. Second-year left end Cameron Jordan has been getting more pressure on the quarterback lately, but it won’t bother Freeman, who has taken just 19 sacks this season. Only the Texans and Giants have surrendered fewer sacks.

The Buccaneers put 28 points on the board against the Saints in Week 7, but they could be even better offensively this time. Remember that Doug Martin wasn’t even the full-time starter back then. He had just 16 carries because he was sharing the workload with LeGarrette Blount. The Saints have the worst rush defense in the NFL, so Martin, seeing what another rookie runner did to them this past Sunday, will be licking his chops in anticipation of a huge outing.

RECAP: I can’t say I like either side very much, but the Buccaneers look like they’re the right way to go. They were clearly looking past the Eagles for this matchup, so they’ll be completely focused. The Saints, on the other hand, have just endured three emotional defeats to the 49ers, Falcons and Giants as underdogs. And now they’re favored? That’s not a good situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t like either side in this game, so I’ll pass.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Saints are coming off emotional losses against the Falcons and Giants.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 50% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Road Team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Saints are 25-12 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 22-14 ATS after a loss with the Saints.

Saints are 14-23 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 34, Saints 31
Buccaneers +4 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 41, Buccaneers 0

Minnesota Vikings (7-6) at St. Louis Rams (6-6-1)
Line: Rams by 2.5. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Rams -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Rams -3.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Rams.

I’ve always criticized Pro Bowl voters for not selecting the correct players. This year, I thought I’d publish an article detailing whom I’m voting for in the Pro Bowl. You can see my Pro Bowl votes here.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I was discussing this with someone Wednesday afternoon – really, what’s the difference between the Rams and the 49ers, besides the offensive lines? Both have stout defenses and great running games. They’re both coached very well. San Francisco has a more effective aerial attack, but rookie Chris Givens is coming on, while Danny Amendola could be back this week. Yet, despite this, St. Louis is still perceived to be a bad team – despite its 9-4 spread record this year.

The Rams couldn’t run the ball very well last week because the Bills’ defense has been tremendous since the bye, but things will be different this Sunday. Minnesota has had its own struggles in that department since its week off, surrendering an average of 111.7 rushing yards to its previous three opponents, one of which is Green Bay.

Sam Bradford is always better when he can feed off an effective Steven Jackson. He’ll do just that in this contest, moving the chains in short-yardage situations. As mentioned, Givens is emerging as a potent threat, and having Amendola back in the lineup would be huge. But even if Amendola doesn’t return, Bradford should have some success keeping drives alive.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: As specified earlier, the Rams have a tremendous defense. They’re ranked sixth against the rush, surrendering 3.8 yards per carry to the opposition. They’ve been even better lately, limiting their previous three foes to 3.1 YPC – and they haven’t done this against slouches. The Bills (Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller) and 49ers (Frank Gore) were restricted to a combined 120 rushing yards.

Stopping Adrian Peterson will be St. Louis’ most daunting task yet. Peterson is gunning for Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. He needs 506 rushing yards to eclipse Dickerson’s mark. That’s 168.7 rushing yards per game, which sounds like a lot, but after seeing how Peterson rebounded off a devastating knee injury, betting against him doesn’t seem like a wise proposition.

Unfortunately for Peterson, his talents are being wasted by a putrid passing attack. Despite his stud back averaging at least five yards per carry in each of his previous seven games, Christian Ponder has been dreadful in that span. Since losing Percy Harvin in Week 9, Ponder has just four touchdowns to six turnovers (5 INTs, 1 fumble). Even worse, his yards per attempt is an unbelievably pathetic 4.6. That’s just unheard of. St. Louis won’t have any trouble stopping Minnesota’s broken aerial offense.

RECAP: I like the Rams in this spot. As mentioned, they’re incredibly underrated, as their 9-4 spread record indicates. Also, the Vikings figure to be very flat coming off an emotional victory as an underdog over a hated divisional rival.

SURVIVOR PICK: There’s not much to choose from this week. The top survivor options are: Texans, Patriots, Rams and Dolphins. I’ve used the first two, so St. Louis it is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a big letdown spot for the Vikings. The Rams should be able to win.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Vikings are coming off an emotional win against the Bears.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
I’m surprised by how many people are betting on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 63% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -3.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Rams 20, Vikings 10
Rams -2.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (13-1)
Vikings 36, Rams 22

Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)
Line: Browns by 4.5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Redskins -2.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Redskins -2 (Griffin) or Browns -3 (Cousins).
Sunday, Dec. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I have to get to this kickoff ban that Roger Goodell is proposing. If you haven’t heard, Goodell wants to replace all kickoffs with a 4th-and-15 situation. Teams that normally would be kicking off could either go for it or punt it away.

First of all, Goodell is an a**hole. He’s doing this to make the game safer, but football is a violent game to begin with. It’s impossible to make it completely safe. Yes, lots of injuries occur on kickoffs, but many of the players who cover kickoffs probably wouldn’t even be on the team if that aspect of the game were eliminated.

Second, while it would be fun to have a team try a 4th-and-15 once in a while, it wouldn’t be nearly balanced enough because the teams that have a great quarterback would have an enormous advantage. It’s so much easier for a team with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers to convert a 4th-and-15 than it is for one with a pedestrian signal-caller like Christian Ponder, Jake Locker or Ryan Fitzpatrick.

And third, it would totally suck for the teams that can’t tackle. Think about the Chargers. Norv Turner’s been embarrassed enough already by that 4th-and-29 play. How stupid is he going to look when his opponents constantly convert 4th-and-15s against him?

2. I’m a fan of the BeyondtheBets.com Web site – it’s where I get my advanced point spreads, after all – but I thought they did something irresponsible this week, posting a trend pertaining to the Broncos-Raiders game. Their headline read: “Quick PSA on Broncos-Raiders spread: Double-digit home underdogs 15-1 ATS since 2009.” This quickly made its way around the Internet. Even Bill Simmons mentioned it on his B.S. Report.

Several of my e-mailers pointed this amazing trend out to me. Unfortunately, I didn’t get a chance to respond to all of them before the Thursday night game. If I did, I would have warned them that this was a giant red herring.

As with all trends, you have to engineer them to fit the specific situation. Yes, double-digit home underdogs have fared well over the past 3-and-a-half seasons, but how were they in A) divisional games and B) Thursday contests?

Well, first of all, the 15-1 number is a bit misleading because it begins in December 2009; the system was miserable in Weeks 1-12 in 2009, going 4-7 against the spread. So, starting in Week 1, 2009, double-digit home divisional underdogs were just 5-4 ATS in divisional games. Furthermore, they were just 1-1 ATS on Thursdays. That’s hardly something worth betting on.

3. On a less serious note, my editor Ryan recently had a rant about NFL.com’s predicted fantasy numbers. I don’t have it on me, but it went something like this:

OK, so I think I should cut Jason Hanson. He’s projected to score one point according to NFL.com. Just one extra point; no field goals. This would reasonable, except they’re projecting Matthew Stafford to throw for multiple touchdowns and for Mikel Leshoure to score once. So, are the Lions constantly planning on going for two or something? Like really, did Jim Schwartz tell the media that he’s going to try two-point conversions every single time against the Packers? Good God, NFL.com is so stupid.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: There’s currently no spread on this game because of Robert Griffin’s status. Griffin sprained his LCL on the final drive of regulation against the Ravens this past Sunday. He tried to gut it out, but he couldn’t plant his foot. He was also in a tremendous amount of pain and had to give way to Kirk Cousins, who was able to finish off Baltimore.

Griffin’s status for Sunday’s game was shaky on Monday. Now, the Redskins are pretty much expecting him to play. Griffin, amazingly, practiced Wednesday, albeit on a limited basis. He told the media that he could plant and throw with any problem. His short recovery time is remarkable considering how devastating that injury looked when it first happened.

Suiting up for the Browns is tough enough. Going against their defense is an even greater challenge. Cleveland’s pass defense has been tremendous lately; they’re ranked ninth in that department (6.8 YPA) and have been even better recently (6.4 YPA past four weeks). Joe Haden can take away Griffin’s top option, Pierre Garcon, forcing him to look elsewhere. Unfortunately, for Griffin, he doesn’t have much else to work with.

Even if Griffin plays, he might be hesitant to run around like he usually does. Handing the ball off to Alfred Morris may not work so well either. The Browns have been tremendous against the rush since their Week 10 bye. Take away one long Jamaal Charles run, and Cleveland has allowed its previous four foes to gain just 3.5 yards per carry. Also, Morris’ fumbling issues must be mentioned. He has coughed the ball up in each of the past two games. The Browns are tied for fifth in takeaways, so they’ll be ready to pounce on any loose balls.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Redskins’ defense has been better lately – for the most part anyway. Joe Flacco torched them in the first half, but couldn’t do anything after intermission. However, the Ravens were still able to rush for 177 yards on 30 carries – which makes you wonder why Cam Cameron was fired this week and not after Baltimore’s Week 13 loss to Charlie Batch.

At any rate, Trent Richardson should have success on the ground against Washington. He’s not completely healthy, but he still serves as an effective weapon out of the backfield, capable of wearing down opposing defenses.

Brandon Weeden will need Richardson running well because Jim Haslett’s confusing schemes are sure to perplex him. Weeden is very inconsistent, so he’ll undoubtedly make some great throws to an emerging Josh Gordon, but he’ll also be guilty of a couple of bone-headed decisions. Washington’s defense should be able to capitalize on those; it ranks eighth in the NFL in takeaways.

RECAP: There’s no spread posted yet, but I’m leaning toward the Redskins, assuming the line’s not too high. I’m just not interested in betting against RGIII right now.

LINE POSTED: Several books have posted a line of Redskins -1 even though Griffin has yet to be cleared to play. I’ll post a pick once Griffin’s status is finally determined Sunday morning.

GRIFFIN OUT: The Browns are 4.5-point favorites with Griffin out. The Redskins will put on a spirited performance, but it might not be enough against a great Cleveland defense. This is basically a coin flip for me, but I’ll take the points.

The Psychology. Edge: TBA.
The Redskins might be flat following two emotional wins over the Ravens and Giants.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Slight lean on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 62% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Browns are 6-9 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Browns -3.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Redskins 17
Redskins +4.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 38, Browns 21

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Miami Dolphins (5-8)
Line: Dolphins by 8. Total: 38.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Dolphins -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Dolphins -7.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I’ve yet to discuss conference alignment, and I don’t know why I neglected doing so for so long. It’s getting so ridiculous. It started innocently enough when Boston College suddenly thought it should belong in the ACC. Boston is technically on the Atlantic Coast, but nowhere near the southeastern teams in the conference. But whatever, no big deal. Or so we thought. Ever since then, there have been so many nonsensical moves:

Colorado, Utah to Pac-12: Neither of these teams is in the Pacific time zone. In fact, they’re four and three states inland from the Pacific Coast, respectively. But at least they’re not Texas – if you recall, the Pac-12 invited Texas to join the conference, which would’ve been absurd. But not nearly as absurd as…

Hawaii to Mountain West: I suppose there are mountains in Hawaii. And Hawaii is in the west. So hey, why not invite them to join the Mountain West!?

Pittsburgh to ACC: I live in Philadelphia, and I can tell you that it takes six hours to drive to Pittsburgh, meaning this school is more than six hours away from the Atlantic Coast.

Boise State, San Diego State, Tulane, Houston to Big East: Oh, this is very logical. Idaho and San Diego State are just about 2,500 miles away from the Eastern Time Zone, so they make total sense as members of the Big East. And Tulane? You can’t find a better team than Tulane to join your crappy conference? My girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, goes to Tulane, and she doesn’t even attend the games because they suck so much.

Maryland, Rutgers to Big Ten: At least the Terps were honest about this. In the press conference, the Maryland Athletic Director admitted that he was doing this purely for money.

Louisville, Notre Dame to ACC: And here I thought Pitt was a weird addition to the Atlantic Coast Conference. Kentucky and Notre Dame belong with the Atlantic Coast teams? Really?

This is so stupid. College football should be about rival schools in close proximity to one another; not universities constantly changing conferences that no longer have an identity. You don’t see NFL teams moving around for money. How stupid would it be if the New York Giants and New England Patriots both bolted for the AFC West because they received a good financial deal? It’d be so incredibly dumb.

2. Speaking of college football being dumb, I never understood why coaches are allowed to vote in a poll. Isn’t there a conflict of interest with that? Like, if the BCS rankings are close between a coach’s school and another, wouldn’t he just vote that other team down?

Something like this occurred recently when the Vanderbilt coach ranked his team No. 16 in the country. His team was 8-4. He slotted Northwestern – freaking Northwestern – No. 15 because they beat his squad. The most egregious thing he did, however, was rank undefeated Notre Dame No. 4 behind three SEC teams because he believes the SEC is the premier conference in the country. So, if this loser coached in the Pac-12, would he put Stanford, Oregon and UCLA in his top three ahead of the Fighting Irish as well? So stupid.

College football needs to get rid of this stupid coaches’ poll. It does no one any good.

3. Heisman thoughts: I would’ve voted for Manti Te’o. I don’t have a problem with Johnny Football winning, but he’s a freshman and will have plenty of other chances. Plus, Te’o was wearing those pretty flowers around his neck. I don’t know what they were for – perhaps they were used to commemorate D-Day, so that’s another reason the people should have voted for him.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Remember the good ole days when Chad Henne was an awesome quarterback for the Jaguars? It seems like so long ago, but he went 17-of-26 for 261 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against the Titans in Week 12. He’s struggled recently, but for two reasons: One, he was battling two premier pass defenses in the Bills and Jets that have surrendered a 5.5 YPA or better the past four weeks. Two, Cecil Shorts was knocked out of the second half of the Buffalo contest and missed the following week with a concussion.

Well, there’s good news on both fronts. The Dolphins aren’t terrible against the pass, but they’re not as awesome as the Bills and Jets either; they’re an average 15th (6.97 YPA). Shorts, meanwhile, is now symptom-free and will return to the lineup. That’s huge because he’s been such an effective weapon for Henne.

Rashad Jennings, who also suffered a concussion two weeks ago, hasn’t improved. But that’s OK because Montell Owens ran pretty effectively against the Jets last week. However, Miami has the No. 3 ground defense in the NFL (3.66 YPC), so the Jaguars will have to move the chains primarily through the air.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins, on the other hand, can stick to their ground attack. They’ll definitely know that this is the best approach if they watched the Jets gash the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville surrendered 155 rushing yards to Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell, which actually pales in comparison to the 214 yards on the ground it permitted to Buffalo the week before.

Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas should pick up where Greene and Powell left off. And speaking of Bush, the Dolphins are finally using him in the passing game. I don’t know why it took Miami’s coaching staff to figure out that Bush can be very effective when lined up at receiver. He caught five balls for 38 receiving yards at San Francisco.

Bush needs to be used at wideout because Ryan Tannehill doesn’t have anything to work with downfield. Brian Hartline has barely done anything since his 253-yard performance at Arizona. In fact, he’s topped 49 yards just once since Veteran’s Day. The Jaguars have a solid secondary that is finally fully healthy, but Tannehill could still be effective at times because he won’t face much of a pass rush. Jacksonville’s 14 sacks are the fewest in the NFL.

RECAP: This is my December NFL Pick of the Month. I don’t know if I’m going to find a team I love more than the Jaguars in this situation over the next few weeks. In addition to Shorts being back in the lineup, here’s why I’m smitten with Jacksonville:

1. The Six and Six Rule applies. It states that teams with six or fewer wins seldom cover when favored by six or more. The Dolphins are currently 5-8. They have a chance to get to seven victories if they win this week and then beat an improved Buffalo squad. Even if they somehow manage to get to 7-9, they’re still not good enough to be laying this many points.

Oh, and by the way, I checked how this works in Week 15. Since 1989, teams with five or fewer victories in Week 15 are just 2-9 against the spread when favored by six or more. That’s not a big sample size, but it makes sense.

2. Speaking of the Dolphins not faring well as a big favorite, check out the trends below. First of all, Miami hasn’t covered a single time when laying 3.5 or more in the past four years. The last time the team was favored by approximately this much, the Titans smoked them in Week 10, 37-3. Also, the underdog is 39-15 against the spread in the Dolphins’ previous 54 contests (thanks to mdb for that). That’s an amazing trend because it’s very effective and makes total sense. Miami plays tight games, so the underdog is usually going to cover.

3. One of the reasons I made Tennessee a big play in that aforementioned 37-3 shellacking was because the Dolphins were in a tough spot; they had to play the Bills in just four days. This is a similar situation, though Miami will be looking backward instead of ahead. The Dolphins battled the 49ers very tough last week, but came up just a bit short. Traveling back across the country, they’re going to be flat now that they’re a big favorite against a team they care very little about.

4. Moderately sized road underdogs are usually great bets against teams coming off a non-divisional loss. This trend hits at about a 75-percent rate in certain situations.

5. The Jaguars have been great on the road this year. They’re 5-1 against the spread as visitors. They kept things close at Green Bay and even took the Texans to overtime in Houston. By that thinking, why can’t they stay within a touchdown at Miami, where the Dolphins don’t have a great homefield advantage (6-24 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003)?

6. Chad Henne. Yes, Henne is one of my reasons. He’s going back to battle his old team. Quarterbacks seeking revenge often cover. Think to Donovan McNabb battling the Eagles for the first time… Kevin Kolb also beating Philadelphia… Joey Harrington slaughtering the Lions on Thanksgiving… Daunte Culpepper embarrassing the Dolphins as a member of the Raiders… Ryan Fitzpatrick upsetting the Bengals… and of course, Brett Favre getting revenge on the Packers.

There are situations where this failed. After all, nothing works 100 percent of the time, but this dynamic seems like it’ll be successful on this occasion because it’s so fresh and the Dolphins are such big favorites after an emotional loss.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Jaguars. Nothing has changed my mind about that.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Dolphins just suffered a tough loss to the 49ers. How will they get up for Jacksonville?

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 52% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 15-32 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Underdog is 39-15 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 54 games.

Dolphins are 0-11 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Dolphins are 6-24 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -7.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Dolphins 17, Jaguars 16
Jaguars +8 (7 Units – December NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$770
Under 38 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 24, Jaguars 3

Denver Broncos (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (9-4)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Ravens -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Broncos -2.5.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

If you’ve been reading this Web site for a while, you know that I love to respond to mess with spammers. It’s fun writing material, and besides, if they’re busy with me, they’re not conning someone else – so I consider myself a good samaritan for doing this.

I currently have a long entry with this woman Mulyana running. It’s taking up too much space, so I’ve given it its own page. Click here for the Steve Urkel Spam Mail.

Unfortunately, I fear that my interaction with Mulyana has come to an end. I haven’t heard from either her or her lawyer in two weeks. Perhaps they called the Winslow household in Chicago and discovered that they were being played by someone pretending to be Steve Urkel. Or maybe they were so angry about receiving Monopoly money in the mail that they quit their spamming schemes.

Anyway, I received another spam e-mail recently:

Hello. This is Yosep Hong, operating director at Association of School Teachers (AST) in South Korea.

Currently, we are working hand in hand with several local Korean government agencies to recruit qualified teachers from the United States.

Since 2007, AST as nonprofit organization has been focusing on cultivating global talent for education, and representing American teachers� right in South Korea. As an effort from our office staffs, all 1200 schools which are involved in Gyeong-gi Do and other cities from elementary schools to high schools have hired over 600 English speaking teachers from the United States.

From this fall semester 2012, over 200 teachers from the United States has been participated in our program in South Korea. You may contact our teachers through AST Facebook page.

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/astkorea.org
Website: http://www.astkorea.org

Please apply our teaching program if you interested in.

Sincerely,

Yosep Hong

Hmm… what personality should I assume this time? I know!

This is almost going to be too easy.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Ravens have maintained a prolific defense over the years. They’ve had so much success with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata and the other awesome players they’ve had on the stop unit. However, there’s one thing Lewis and company haven’t done, and that’s beat Peyton Manning in his prime. Hell, they’ve never even covered the spread. Since 2003, Manning is 8-0 straight up and against the spread against Baltimore.

And this is the old Ravens’ defense we’re talking about – not this new one that can’t stop Charlie Batch and Kirk Cousins. Baltimore is old, washed up and hobbled. Lewis could be back this week, but he was a huge liability in the running game even before he tore his triceps. The Ravens are still weak versus the rush, so Knowshon Moreno, who has been very effective in relief of Willis McGahee, should have another solid outing.

Then there’s the issue of stopping Manning. I don’t see how the Ravens are going to do it. Terrell Suggs is injured, so they have no pass rush. No. 1 cornerback Lardarius Webb is out. Lewis’ on-field leadership will help, but he’s a shell of his former self. I’ll be shocked if the Broncos don’t score into the mid-20s at the very least.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Can the Ravens match the Broncos on the scoreboard? Well, they tend to play much better at home, so that’s promising. However, the firing of Cam Cameron could actually be detrimental – at least this week. New offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell has never called plays before, so he’s going to be learning something new on the fly. That’s never good.

Caldwell knows that he’ll have to give lots of carries to Ray Rice, or he’ll be on the street, just like his predecessor. The problem is that the Broncos are fourth in run defense (3.68 YPC), so it’ll be difficult for Rice to get anything on the ground. He’ll have to do most of his damage as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

Joe Flacco will have to release the ball quickly to Rice to avoid Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. Flacco has been sacked 10 times the past three weeks, and that was against the Chargers, Steelers and Redskins, all of whom are in the bottom 10 in terms of sack total. Denver is No. 2, so Flacco will be under heavy pressure, while his receivers will be blanketed by the Broncos’ impressive stable of corners.

RECAP: Manning is great as a road favorite and owns the Ravens. Baltimore, meanwhile, is reeling off a road overtime loss. I hate all of the action coming in on the visitor, but I still like the Broncos enough to bet two units on them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Lewis is not going to play, after all. A couple of other Ravens could be out as well. I’d probably go higher on the Broncos if I could get something less than a field goal.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

No surprise that the public loves Peyton Manning to beat the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Denver: 70% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Peyton Manning is 33-22 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Opening Line: Broncos -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Ravens 17
Broncos -3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Broncos 34, Ravens 17

Indianapolis Colts (9-4) at Houston Texans (11-2)
Line: Texans by 10.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -9.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 14): Texans -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 14): Texans -7.5.
Sunday, Dec. 16, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

Video of the Week: Well, this isn’t exactly a video, but it’s the most completely useless Web site ever. It’s called IsItChristmas.com. Check it out and you’ll be amazed.

I always look forward to Christmas, but this year is going to be extra special so I can see what this Web site looks like then.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: What happened to this great Houston defense? Chad Henne and Matthew Stafford torched the Texans in consecutive weeks, taking them to overtime. The Titans couldn’t anything against them because, well, they’re the Titans, but Tom Brady was able to compile 400-plus net yards against them Monday night.

Houston’s stop unit has suffered most against the pass. It has allowed the four previous quarterbacks it faced – Henne and Jake Locker being two of them – to maintain 8.1 yards per attempt. The Texans have surrendered an average of 356 yards over the past four weeks. So, in other words, Andrew Luck should have success against his new arch rival.

The Texans can still get after the quarterback pretty well, even without Brooks Reed in the lineup, so the Colts will need to establish Vick Ballard to keep the opposition honest. Ballard has been pretty impressive since about the middle of October. He has gained at least four yards per carry in six of his previous eight starts. Houston’s defense, meanwhile, has permitted 4.4 yards per carry to its previous three foes.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Of course, the Texans will have even more success running on Indianapolis. The Colts have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, ranking 28th in that department (4.6 YPC). Arian Foster was stymied by Bill Belichick’s defense Monday night, but he’ll definitely rebound in this contest.

Matt Schaub needs Foster ripping off big chunks of yardage to be at his best. This didn’t happen Monday night, so Schaub had a very pedestrian performance. If Foster can bounce back, Schaub will be able to utilize his patented play-action bootlegs as much as he desires.

The Colts just don’t have the manpower in the secondary to defend Houston’s passing game if Foster also gets going. They just made Jake Locker and Kenny Britt look unstoppable, for crying out loud. Of course, it doesn’t help that the front seven can’t get to the quarterback. Indianapolis has just three sacks in its previous four games, so Schaub will seldom be pressured in this contest.

RECAP: The Colts are the inferior team, but that’s why they’re getting close to double digits. They are the right side though for a few reasons:

1. The Texans called their game against the Patriots their biggest in franchise history. Well, they lost, so they’ll have trouble getting up as a big favorite just six days later.

2. Indianapolis, meanwhile, is playing its biggest game of the Luck era. It has nothing to look ahead to, so it’ll be bringing the kitchen sink against the AFC South leader.

3. The trend I listed below applies: Teams coming off losses of 17-plus on Monday Night Football are 23-38 ATS the following week. They’re especially bad in this situation if playing a divisional game following a road loss.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has shot up to -10. The Texans will probably be too flat to play their best, so the Colts should cover the number – or at the very least be in position for a backdoor cover.

UNIT CHANGE: I’m dropping this to two units. I heard Suzy Kolber shout, “What’s wrong with the Texans OMG!?!?!?” this morning and suddenly realized that there’s a good chance Houston could cover.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Texans will be flat after losing what they called the biggest game in their franchise’s history.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 51% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 17 of the 20 meetings (7 of last 9 meetings decided by 10 points or fewer).

MNF Misery: Teams coming off losses of 17+ on MNF are 23-38 ATS the following week.

Opening Line: Texans -8.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Texans 23, Colts 20
Colts +10.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 29, Colts 17

Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
Panthers at Chargers, Lions at Cardinals, Seahawks at Bills, Chiefs at Raiders, Steelers at Cowboys, 49ers at Patriots, Jets at Titans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)