@yoyoma Yeah they can and they should, but the point I was trying to make was that an offensive tackle is a much bigger need than a linebacker and the Pats need to address the tackle position as soon as possible in the draft. Walter and Chuck both seem to think that the Patriots' offensive line isn't a mess.
@cowboysfan Huh? Patrick Willis is 6'1" 240, which is the weight Jack will likely play at. Kuechly is 6'3" and 235, so tall, but leaner. Jack is a stud and whoever drafts him will have a Pro-Bowler on their hands. He's ridiculous in coverage, so he can stay on the field for 3 downs, and his sideline to sideline speed is elite. The Cowboys will be lucky to have him.
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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2015): 1-0 (+$200)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2015): 1-0 (+$200)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2015): 0-0 ($0)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2015): 1-0 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2015): -$580
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$2,360) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$2,360)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,291-2,116-129, 52.0% (+$8,150) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 741-668-34 (52.6%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 305-267-13 (53.3%) Career Over-Under: 1,823-1,765-51 (50.8%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 33-22 (60.0%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Houston Texans (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2) Line: Colts by 6. Total: 51. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Colts -6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Colts -6.
Monday, Nov. 1, 8:30 ET
The Game. Edge: None.
It's Monday Night Football, and unfortunately, we're going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt Smith, Herm Edwards, Bob Griese and former Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew "Maurice Drew-Jones" and Torry Holt "Terry Holt"). Here's how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt, Griese and Herm were in the booth for this game:
Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Houston, the better of two cities in the state of Texas! Tonight, we have the Colts and Texans battling each other to the death. Guys, I picked both of these teams to meet each other in the Super Bowl. Which of these two teams is best, because I honestly have no idea?
Emmitt: Kyle, I think you have very confusion with the situation of the division in the National Conference League. Houston and Indianapolis in the same division, and team in the same division meetin' in the Super Bowls unpossible. Very unpossible.
Reilly: That's what you think, Emmitt. I guarantee that the Colts and Texans will be playing in the Super Bowl. I'll bet my three remaining children that they'll meet in the Super Bowl. I've only lost one child to a wager, and I definitely won't lose three more!
Herm: You shouldn't bet your kids! You shouldn't bet your children! You shouldn't bet your offspring! You shouldn't wager! Shouldn't gamble! Shouldn't risk! Children bad! Gamblin' good! I mean children good! Gamblin' bad!
Reilly: Herm, you're being a loser again. If I want to bet my kids, no one should be able to stop me. No one!
Griese: I had a kid once. His name was... uhh... Brian. He wasn't very good at football!
Reilly: See what I mean? All kids do is bring disappointment. My daughter drew a picture for me in kindergarten, and it was crap! I've never seen such a horrible picture. I knew then that I sired a horrible artist. And that's not the worst of it! I told her she would never be an artist, and all she did was pick her nose. The nerve!
Emmitt: Not everybody, or the opposite, anybody, can become artistry. It take a certain skill to become art, just like it take a certain skill to become football. But when people combine the skill they get from the parent and the attitude they get from themself, they can eventually make it into the Hall of Fame of football or the Hall of Fame of art.
Reilly: My daughter will never be in the Hall of Fame of art!
Griese: Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub are two good quarterbacks!
Reilly: Silence, Griese. No one cares about this game. We have more important things to discuss, like the disgrace my daughter will bring to my family name.
Herm: No need to feel disgrace! No need to feel shame! No need to be upset! No need to fret! She can be a doctor! She can be a lawyer! She can be a dentist! She can be an engineer! She can be an actress! She can trade stock! She can herd flock! She can deliver mail! She can study a snail!
Reilly: Or she can be a prostitute! Ha! Take that Herm! We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!
HOUSTON OFFENSE: The last time these two teams met, the Colts had absolutely no answer for Arian Foster. The Texans trampled Indianapolis' beleaguered rush defense for a whopping 260 yards on 39 carries.
Can Indianapolis turn things around and keep Foster at bay? Not unless they establish a big lead early and force Houston to pass often. The Colts have surrendered triple-digit rushing yards to all but one opponent (Denver) this year. In their most recent game, Indianapolis allowed 112 rushing yards on 22 attempts to Ryan Torain and the Redskins.
If the Colts can get up early, they'll be able to unleash Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, forcing Matt Schaub to throw into their 14th-ranked pass defense. The good news for Houston though is that left tackle Duane Brown will be back from suspension.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Like the Colts, the Texans are not very good against the run. This hasn't always been the case, but they struggled after Pro Bowl inside linebacker DeMeco Ryans was lost for the season.
The Colts, however, aren't very efficient on the ground, which is fine because Peyton Manning can win games by himself. Manning won't have Dallas Clark or Austin Collie at his disposal, but the Texans are so bad against the pass that it won't matter. Not yet anyway.
RECAP: I like the Texans to cover this number. These Houston-Indianapolis games are always close. The past six meetings have been decided by 10 points or fewer.
And besides, despite the fact that these teams are both 4-2, this contest means so much more to the Texans. Their ultimate goal each year is to beat the Colts, and they've built their squad to do exactly that. They really match up well against Indianapolis, so I think this game will be determined by about a field goal, and could go either way.
The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
Big game in the AFC South. Both teams will bring it.
The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
Early money on Houston. Late money on the Colts.
Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 64% (167,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Colts.
History: Colts have won 15 of the 17 meetings (last six meetings decided by 10 points or fewer).
Week 8 NFL Picks - Early Games Dolphins at Bengals, Jaguars at Cowboys, Redskins at Lions, Bills at Chiefs, Panthers at Rams, Packers at Jets, Broncos at 49ers
Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Small Parlay: Vikings +5.5, Chargers -3.5, Bills +7.5, Packers +6, Saints PK, Texans +5.5 (.5 Units to win 23.6) -- Incorrect; -$50
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-3) Line: Saints by 1. Total: 44. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Saints -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Saints -3.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 8:20 ET
The Game. Edge: Steelers.
More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter (the second from forum member LTomlinson31; the third from Goldwald):
1. "You have the perfect solution the problem is Jerry Jones. He wants to be the Boss he wants everyone to say Wow Jerry and Stephen Jones two men without any NFL experiance could win A super bowl he is bawlking at the NFL Jerry is saying to ametures could win a superbowl and the NFL has such a low standard they let Ametures run a pro team.Jerry lost Jimmy then brings in Berry Switzer why do this go from a perfectionest like Jimmy to Der der der barry switzer."
E-mailer Emily H. sent this one over, so here was her analysis: I'm wondering, what does "bawlking" mean? This comment is so hard to understand because of the punctuation inserted wherever the person felt like inserting it, not where it actually belongs.
2. "The Vikings have been on a delay.BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH I MAEDE FUNNI"
For normal people, this guy is a moron. For the GameCenter crowd, he's a comedic genius. This joke will be re-told for decades on GameCenter.
3. "richie i dont no if west walker is number one mosses deep treat left him the sort routes"
Last week, it was Troy Paoulami. This week, West Walker. These GameCenter people have this uncanny gift of butchering player names.
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Prior to last week, the Saints had been winning, but struggling mightily in the red zone. Against Cleveland, it all fell apart. Drew Brees tossed four interceptions, and New Orleans lost in a blowout. Now with the Steelers coming up, things can only get worse, right?
I don't think so. Brees is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL and has tons of great weapons at his disposal. Brees is quick to get the ball out and is very difficult to blitz, so Dick LeBeau's chaotic schemes probably won't affect the reigning Super Bowl MVP as it would other quarterbacks.
There's also a chance Reggie Bush could be back, which would give New Orleans added life and another option inside the red zone.
PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Despite their offensive struggles, the Saints' defense has held up. They rank seventh against the run, limiting their previous three opponents to just 132 rushing yards on 58 carries, with Peyton Hillis and Chris Wells being two of those backs.
However, even if the Steelers can't establish Rashard Mendenhall, they'll be able to put together consistent drives. The Saints don't get much pressure on the quarterback (12 sacks in seven games), and aside from some careless fumbles, Ben Roethlisberger played very well at Miami.
You may see that the Saints rank eighth against the pass, but that's a bit of a farce; the past four quarterbacks they've faced are Colt McCoy, Max Hall, Josh Freeman and Jimmy Clausen.
RECAP: This is one of those games where the public thinks, "The Saints just lost to the Browns. There's no way they'll beat the Steelers. Easy money!"
As you may guess, I disagree with this mentality. The Saints simply looked past Cleveland, and they are still ridiculously difficult to beat in the raucous Superdome.
I like Drew Brees as an underdog (if the Saints are pick-em at home, they're essentially an underdog), and New Orleans also falls under the category of teams losing the spread by 25 or more points and bouncing back the following week.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
No one wants any part of the Saints after watching them lose to the Browns.
Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 68% (142,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
Steelers are 27-13 ATS in October since 2000.
Ben Roethlisberger is 71-28 as a starter (53-43 ATS).
Ben Roethlisberger is 10-4 ATS as a road dog.
Ben Roethlisberger is 13-6 ATS as an underdog.
Saints are 28-47 ATS at home since 2001 (11-11 since 2008).
Saints are 21-36 ATS as a home favorite since 2001.
Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-4) Line: Raiders by 2.5. Total: 42. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Pick.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Pick.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 4:15 ET
The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
It's time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com's GameCenter and my thoughts on them:
1. "AND U DONT NEED TO JUST CONTAIN SHAUB.. U GOT FOSTER.JOHNSON.WALTER,WILLAMS, RYANS,CUSHING,AND SMITH SO GOOD LUCK O AND DONT FOE GET ABOUT POLLARD!! WITCH IS LIKE 3ED IN TACELS IN THE NFL .. I JUST CANT SEE WHY HE GOT CUT FROM U GUYS???"
With foes and witches, this is a very appropriate GameCenter post for Halloween.
2. "we want tha dub so tha moral rises more so by bye week, we can slide in at 3-5. if tha niners hustle to that right there, we can sneak up on tha others in tha division real smooth like. they work hard and grind, they can shock people real quick....then we would see how lames mve there mouths!!!!!!!!! NINERS WIN BABY!!!!!"
This plan was so sound. Unfortunately, it all crumbled when the 49ers lost to the Panthers. The "morale" of the story is that you should take one game at a time.
3. "THEN APPLIE ALL THE PRESSURE TO ORTON HE MUST GO DOWN!"
Mmm... APPLE PIE NOM NOM NOM NOM. Oh wait, he meant "apply." Damn it.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: Lions fans really have to be angry right now watching Mike Williams. Williams was one of the most talented players in the 2005 NFL Draft, but nearly ate himself out of the league. Now that he's actually trying hard under his former college coach, we're finally seeing what he's capable of.
Williams has a tough matchup this week against Nnamdi Asomugha, meaning Matt Hasselbeck will have to look toward Deon Butler and John Carlson more often. The Raiders have surrendered more than 200 passing yards only once this season (to Philip Rivers), so Hasselbeck could be in for a long day, especially with Russell Okung out again.
Running the ball will work for Seattle, however. The Raiders rank 31st against the rush, and the Seahawks finally have some sort of a ground attack with Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett splitting carries.
OAKLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of guys who looked like busts and have revitalized their career this year, how about Darren McFadden? Where was this the past two seasons? McFadden has emerged as one of the top running backs in all of football. He's an amazing dual threat who will give Seattle headaches as a receiver out of the backfield.
However, the Seahawks are third against the rush, surrendering just 3.4 yards per carry. Both McFadden and Michael Bush won't have much success on the ground, meaning Jason Campbell will have to do a lot of the work in this contest.
I don't like Campbell's chances. Seattle's secondary isn't the greatest, but the team has 19 sacks this season, including 16 in its previous four games. The Raiders, meanwhile, have allowed 20 sacks this year. Center Samson Satele could miss this contest with a concussion.
RECAP: Until the Raiders can prove that they can win consistently, I refuse to lay points with them. After all, they're 0-9 against the spread as favorites since 2006.
By "win consistently," I mean actually trying hard after a victory. Dating back to December 2007, here's how Oakland has fared after a win: Loss by 8, Loss by 7, Loss by 1, Loss by 14, Loss by 21, Loss by 17, Loss by 38, Loss by 20, Win by 7, Loss by 7, Loss by 19, Loss by 1, Loss by 31. That's a 1-12 straight-up, 3-10 spread record following a victory.
With all that being said, I can't recommend betting Seattle either, though I'd pick them if I had to choose a side. The Seahawks are habitually terrible away from Qwest Field; they are 12-25 against the number on the road since 2006.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action after early money on the Raiders.
Percentage of money on Oakland: 56% (129,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
Seahawks are 12-25 ATS on the road since 2006.
Matt Hasselbeck is 13-19 ATS off back-to-back wins.
Raiders are 11-22 ATS in October since 2001.
Raiders are 15-34 ATS at home the previous 49 instances.
Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at New England Patriots (5-1) Line: Patriots by 6. Total: 44. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Patriots -4.5.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Patriots -6.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 4:15 ET
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Another friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 25, 2010 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are: 1) No Space Man. 2) Fat Crosswalk Lady. 3) Facebook Snobs.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE: This line was Patriots -5.5 until Monday afternoon when news broke that Brett Favre could potentially miss this game. As of Tuesday evening, this game is off the board at many sportsbooks. It seems like Favre will be a game-time decision, though Peter King believes the grizzled quarterback will play.
If Favre indeed suits up to keep his consecutive-games streak alive, he'll have no problems torching a sorry New England secondary that has allowed at least 285 passing yards to each opponent in the past three weeks, and 220 passing yards to every foe this year.
The Patriots are 17th against the run, but have been better in this department since the bye, limiting the Ravens and Chargers to 126 rushing yards on 44 carries. Containing Adrian Peterson is a different animal, though New England will be able to stack the line of scrimmage if Tarvaris Jackson makes the start.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots' offense hasn't been the same since the Randy Moss trade. Tom Brady spent time dinking and dunking his way downfield against the Ravens and Chargers. In Sunday's game, New England mustered just 188 total yards of offense.
The Patriots have no running game - seriously, stop giving BenJarvus Green-Ellis carries in short yardage, Belichick - which will allow the Vikings to concentrate on stopping the pass in this contest. Minnesota's secondary has its problems, thanks to a lacking pass rush and a season-ending injury to Cedric Griffin, but the team doesn't have to worry about Green-Ellis coming out of the backfield at all, so it could have some success containing Brady and his bogged-down offense.
RECAP: The Vikings are my favorite play this week, regardless of who the starter is. Here are my reasons:
1. The whole second-consecutive road underdog thing again. Brad Childress is actually 6-2 against the spread in the latter end of a back-to-back road swing.
2. The venerable Statfox Trend comes into play yet again. Teams coming off a close road victory really struggle to cover the spread as home favorites (see trend below).
3. This game means so much more to the Vikings, who are two back of the Packers and Bears. New England is sitting pretty at 5-1, and isn't desperate for a victory.
4. The Patriots haven't been the same team since the Moss trade. Their offense just isn't explosive anymore, which makes laying a lot of points with them a poor proposition.
5. If Tarvaris Jackson starts, the whole "good team playing its backup quarterback" situation will come into effect.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
The public is sick of Brett Favre.
Percentage of money on New England: 75% (96,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
Statfox Trend: Home favorites coming off road wins of 1-3 points are 23-49 ATS since 2000 (Weeks 2-10 only); Bill Belichick 0-1.
Brad Childress is 6-2 ATS in his second consecutive road game.
Vikings are 6-11 ATS vs. AFC foes under Brad Childress.
Patriots are 24-14 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: It's pretty amazing that this Charger team ranks first in both offense and defense, yet is just 2-5. As you may know, San Diego has been killing itself with special teams gaffs and careless turnovers. So, with that in mind, is it even worth doing a write-up when I could just type, "The Chargers will find some way to lose?" Maybe. But what the hell.
Tennessee is sixth versus the pass, but has surrendered at least 231 passing yards to four of its past five opponents, with the exception being to David Garrard and Trent Edwards in that Monday night blowout. Philip Rivers will continue his torrid pace to eclipse Dan Marino's single-season yardage record.
Running the football won't work as well, however. The Titans rank eighth versus ground attacks, limiting opponents to just 3.8 yards per carry. But San Diego couldn't rush the ball last week and still had success moving the chains.
TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Vince Young will presumably be back, which will open things up for Chris Johnson with San Diego having to focus on Young's running ability. The Chargers, however, are sixth against the run, having limited five of their previous six opponents to less than four yards per carry.
San Diego also happens to be first against the pass. Kenny Britt is really coming into his own and emerging as a top-tier receiver in the NFL, but the Titans will struggle to throw the ball. Only one team (David Garrard and Luke McCown in garbage time) has thrown for more than 220 yards against the Chargers this year.
Part of the reason why San Diego is so successful versus aerial attacks is its pass rush; the Chargers have the most sacks in the NFL (25). Excluding their victory over the Arena Football League Jaguars, the Titans have allowed eight sacks in their previous three contests.
RECAP: The public is all over the Titans early on. "The Chargers stink and they're favored by four? Give me the Titans!!!"
I actually really like San Diego for the following reasons:
1. Young is back in the lineup. As you may know, I love betting on good teams using their backup quarterback. As I discovered last week, when the starting signal-caller returns under center, that same team struggles against the spread, as the players know they no longer have to give 110 percent to win.
2. Jeff Fisher sucks on the West Coast. How bad is he? Try 2-10 against the spread! The last time Tennessee went out to San Diego for a regular-season game, they lost 40-7 - and the Titans went 8-8 that year, so it's not like they were really bad or anything.
3. Norv Turner stinks as a head coach, but one thing he's good at is rebounding after losing as a favorite. He's 8-3 against the spread in that situation.
4. The Titans are sitting comfortably in first place, so this game isn't a big deal to them. The Chargers, meanwhile, MUST come away with a victory. This is do or die.
The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.
This is do or die for the Chargers. If they lose this one, their season is over.
The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
The public is pounding the underdog early on.
Percentage of money on Tennessee: 68% (140,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
Titans are 22-12 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.
Vince Young is 30-14 as a starter (28-16 ATS).
Vince Young is 10-4 ATS as a road dog.
Jeff Fisher is 2-10 ATS on the West Coast since 1999.
Norv Turner is 8-3 ATS coming off a loss as a favorite.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3) Line: Cardinals by 3. Total: 39.5. Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 7): Cardinals -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 7): Pick.
Sunday, Oct. 31, 4:15 ET
The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
Two opportunities to win money, if you're into that sort of thing:
We are running our NFL Picking Contest again on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It's free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up. It's a new month, so our Picking Contest is starting over.
TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Make way for the greatest team in the NFC! Well, according to Raheem Morris anyway. I guess Morris forgot that his team was just blown out against the Saints.
Having said that, things are really promising for the Buccaneers. Josh Freeman is really coming into his own, and Mike Williams continues to emerge a dynamic No. 1 receiver. The Cardinals have surrendered at least 225 passing yards to every quarterback they've battled, including Bruce Gradkowski and Sam Bradford in his first start.
This Tampa offense could reach the next level if it establishes some sort of a consistent running game. Cadillac Williams is a corpse, but LeGarrette Blount looked great against the Rams. Arizona is 21st against the rush, so if the Buccaneers actually use Blount for the second week in a row, they shouldn't have trouble scoring.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: It's unclear who will start for the Cardinals. Max Hall suffered a concussion in a miserable game at Seattle. Derek Anderson took over and led Arizona on a scoring drive, but was predictably awful afterward.
The Buccaneers' secondary is terrible against the pass as it really misses stud safety Tanard Jackson. However, Hall is inexperienced and Anderson plays like a drunk, so the Cardinals may not be able to take advantage of Tampa Bay's defensive backfield issues.
Arizona's running game is also shot. The offensive line can't open up holes for Chris Wells, and opposing defenses are stacking the line of scrimmage, daring Hall or Anderson to beat them. The Buccaneers are dead last against the run, so if Wells can't put together a great fantasy outing here, he never will.
RECAP: There are no psychological, situational or trend edges here, so this will be a zero-unit play for me. With a gun to my head, however, I'd pick the Buccaneers because I think they're the better team getting points.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
You'd have to be crazy to bet on the Cardinals right now.
Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 67% (117,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
Buccaneers are 13-22 ATS on the road after a win since 2002.
NFL Picks (2010): 61-55-3 (+$2,475) NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370) NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
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