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Week 9 NFL Picks

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2008): 9-4-1 (+$1,620)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 3, 4:55 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks - Late Games

New York Jets (4-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-2)
Line: Bills by 5. Total: 42.

Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 8): Bills -6.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 8): Bills -6.
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The Game. Edge: Bills.
Injuries: Jets: OUT: ILB Brad Kassell (IR). Bills: OUT: OLB Angelo Crowell (IR), ILB John DiGiorgio (IR).

I'm very glad I was able to bounce back from a disastrous Week 7. I went 9-4-1, earning 16.2 units on the weekend. I was also happy to hit my first parlay of the season. I turned half a unit into 23.4 units. Let's hope I can keep this up!

Two teams who weren't able to keep their momentum up last week were the Bills and Jets. After a statement victory against the Chargers, Buffalo committed three turnovers in the fourth quarter and lost at Miami. New York, meanwhile, was able to come away with a victory, but barely survived against the worst quarterback in the NFL and a horrendous defense. I seriously think Roger Goodell should step in and penalize the Jets with a loss for last week's embarrassing performance.

Then again, maybe both squads were looking forward to this contest...

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills will always utilize a run-first offense under Dick Jauron. Unfortunately, that won't work on Sunday because the Jets are second versus the rush, thanks to Kris Jenkins.

Without Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson pounding the rock successfully, it'll be up to Trent Edwards to move the chains. Last year, I wouldn't have given Buffalo much of a chance under these circumstances, but Edwards, despite last week's disaster, has emerged as a possible MVP candidate. He's completing 68 percent of his passes with a solid YPA of 7.7.

Besides, if Tyler Thigpen can torch New York's secondary, Edwards should be able to as well. The Jets are 19th against the pass despite the fact that they have 24 sacks on the year.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: He'll kill you and then he'll bring you back to life. That's how Brett Favre plays the quarterback position. He loves throwing pick-sixes and then coming back to lead game-winning drives. Shame on the Jets fans for booing him; this is what Favre has always been. And besides, have you all forgotten how terrible Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens were in 2007?

Like Edwards, Favre will need to move the chains on his own; because of Marcus Stroud, Buffalo stops the run extremely well. Thomas Jones won't be able to do anything.

Favre will have some success versus a Buffalo secondary that was torched by Chad Pennington and Ted Ginn. Terrence McGee, who just returned to the lineup from injury, clearly isn't 100 percent. The Bills' pass rush is also a bit lacking; they have 13 sacks on the year and only managed to get to Pennington once.

RECAP: A tough game to handicap because the line is perfect. It wouldn't surprise me if the Bills won by 10 or by three.

One thing I'm looking at is that despite the fact that about nine-tenths of the public is on the host, the line has dropped in New York's favor, falling from -6 to -5.5. Why would Vegas invite more action on the Bills, moving the line off a key number of six? This tells me the Jets are the right side.

Another thing is a funny trend I have listed below. The Bills are a laughable 2-19 against the spread after playing the Dolphins. That shouldn't mean anything, but it's worked for a decade. There has to be something to it, right?

Also, I don't think Buffalo is cut out to be a large favorite (more than four points). The Bills are not a veteran team that knows how to put inferior opponents away. They struggled against the Raiders and Rams, and lost to the Cardinals and Dolphins. The Jets should be able to hang around. It also wouldn't surprise me if Favre scored a backdoor touchdown at the end of the game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams should be pumped up for this game. The winner will own a piece of the AFC East lead.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
If most of the public is on the Bills, why has the line dropped from -6 to -5 in some places?
  • Percentage of money on Buffalo: 62% (113,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 11 meetings.
  • Jets are 17-28-3 ATS as an underdog the previous 48 instances (10-11 under Eric Mangini).
  • Bills are 16-7 ATS at home after Oct. 1 when favored by less than 6 points since 2002.
  • Bills are 22-8 ATS in November home games the previous 30 contests.
  • Bills are 2-19 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.
  • Bills are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Opening Line: Bills -6.
  • Opening Total: 41.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 51 degrees. Light wind.

    Week 9 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Jets 17
    Jets +5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 42 (.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$55
    Jets 26, Bills 17

    Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-8)
    Line: Jaguars by 7.5. Total: 39.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 8): Jaguars -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 8): Jaguars -7.5.
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    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.
    Injuries: Jaguars: OUT: WR Reggie Williams, G Vince Manuwai (IR), G Maurice Williams (IR), G Chris Naeole (IR). Bengals: OUT: RB Kenny Irons (IR), OLB Keith Rivers (IR), S Dexter Jackson (IR).

    Each week, I like to take a look at how Vegas fared.

    Every bookie and sportsbook manager will be dining at five-star restaurants all week. In games with lop-sided action toward one side, the books went 7-1. The house's only loss was Baltimore covering the spread against Oakland. This is Vegas' third consecutive monstrous weekend.

    It's amazing how much money the books have made off Jacksonville this year. The Jaguars were heavily backed by the public against the Titans, Bills, Texans, Steelers and Browns. They failed to cover all of those games. On the two occasions when the public was backing the other team, Jacksonville covered (against the Colts and Broncos).

    Will the trend continue? Let's delve into the matchups.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I mentioned earlier that Tyler Thigpen is the worst quarterback in the NFL. Well, Ryan Fitzpatrick may have something to say about that. Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions and just two touchdowns. Even worse, his YPA is a disgusting 4.6. He can't throw the ball longer than 10 yards downfield, which is a shame because T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Chad Ocho Cinco are rotting on fantasy players' benches.

    But it's not all Fitzpatrick's fault. His offensive line has allowed so many sacks that he has already forgotten everything he learned at Harvard. In fact, if Fitzpatrick and his falling IQ had to redo high school, the SAT and the college admissions process, the only school he could get into right now is Boris College.

    Cincinnati's offensive line sucks, as it can't run block or pass protect. Though Jacksonville's defense is vastly overrated, it should be able to shut down the Bengals' abysmal offense.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: For weeks, I've been pining that the Bengals are a bit underrated because their defense wasn't as bad as advertised. Currently, they're 19th against the run and 12th versus the pass.

    However, those numbers have dipped recently in the wake of Keith Rivers' season-ending injury. Rivers was a huge upgrade for an abysmal stop unit, and he's already missed. Last week, Houston torched the Bengals for 35 points, but could have actually scored in the 50s if it wanted to.

    Despite their offensive line woes, the Jaguars will establish Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor versus Cincinnati. With the ground attack working, David Garrard will have the luxury of operating in short-yardage situations - something he didn't have the chance to do against Cleveland. Unfortunately, Garrard's top weapon, Matt Jones, is likely out for a three-game suspension.

    RECAP: Normally, I'd suggest to keep fading the extremely overrated Jaguars, but this is a must-win for them. If they lose, they'll fall to 3-5. I'll be shocked if you don't see Jacksonville play with a ton of intensity and passion.

    Besides, the Bengals are horrible! They were debacled at Houston, and despite trying much harder than the sleep-walking Steelers two weeks ago, they lost that contest 38-10.

    Since losing Carson Palmer to an elbow injury, the Bengals have gotten worse each week, progressively losing by: 12, 28 and 29. Note that they haven't even scratched a single-digit deficit. I can't recommend backing a team like that.

    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    Like the Lions, the Bengals will try extra hard to get out of a possible 0-9 hole. Unfortunately for them, the Jaguars also need a victory to avoid a 3-5 start. Huge must-win for Jacksonville.

    The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
    I'm surprised more people aren't backing the Jaguars.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 70% (126,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Hello, Good Bye II: Underdogs of 6.5 or more are 19-13 ATS going into their bye (Marvin Lewis 1-1).
  • Zero Heroes: 0-8 or worse teams are 11-4 ATS since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Jaguars -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 69 degrees. Light wind.

    Week 9 NFL Pick: Jaguars 42, Bengals 14
    Jaguars -7.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Over 39.5 (.5 Units) -- Correct; +$50
    Bengals 21, Jaguars 19

    Detroit Lions (0-7) at Chicago Bears (4-3)
    Line: Bears by 12.5. Total: 43.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 8): Bears -13.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 8): Bears -13.5.
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    The Game. Edge: Bears.
    Injuries: Lions: OUT: QB Jon Kitna (IR), CB Stanley Wilson (IR), S Gerald Alexander (IR). Bears: OUT: OT Chris Williams, CB Zackary Bowman (IR), S Brandon McGowan (IR).

    If you haven't heard, Brett Favre is being accused of telling the Lions how to beat his former team. According to Favre, Matt Millen called him and asked him how to attack the Packers. Favre told Millen to "Attack them hard." Despite this inside info, the Lions still lost by 23. No wonder Detroit fired Millen. He probably gathered the entire coaching staff around and told them, "Hey guys! I know how to beat the Packers! I have inside info! If we attack them hard, we'll win!" Call me crazy, but I don't see Millen getting hired by any team as President of Spy Operations any time soon.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: The Bears' defense will attack Calvin Johnson hard because, well, Johnson is Detroit's sole offensive threat. Making things even worse for the team is the fact that Johnson can't even get the ball because Dan Orlovsky throws like an old grandmother. I know he had that one 96-yard strike to Johnson against the Texans, but I chalk that up to luck. Orlovsky just can't get the ball downfield.

    Because of this, opposing defenses play closer to the line of scrimmage, making it even more difficult for the Lions to run the ball. Not that they could do so if they wanted to; Detroit's offensive line is complete garbage.

    With a normal quarterback, Johnson could expose a banged-up Chicago secondary. Unfortunately, that's one of many things the Lions lack on offense.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: While Detroit hasn't had a quality quarterback in decades, the Bears have finally found theirs. Kyle Orton is having an amazing season, throwing for 10 touchdowns and just four picks, completing 62.2 percent of his passes and maintaining a solid YPA of 7.3. Orton's numbers can only improve after this contest; he gets Brandon Lloyd back, while Detroit's secondary is one of the league's worst.

    With a week off to recuperate from a taxing rookie slate, Matt Forte should be primed and ready to go versus the league's 29th-ranked rush defense. Forte will make things even easier for Orton, who won't feel any pressure from a weak pass rush that has only one sack threat (Dewayne White, six).

    RECAP: The Bears have the talent to easily win this game. But more importantly, will they cover?

    A line of 13.5 is a lot for an offense that isn't that explosive. If the Lions score 16 points - that's what they've averaged with Orlovsky under center - that means the Bears need to put up 30 to cover. They're capable of doing so, but I wouldn't bet on it.

    Besides, this is a divisional rivalry. Anything can happen because these teams are so familiar with each other. I don't think the Bears will be particularly focused, as they have tough games against the Titans and Packers coming up after this "easy win."

    The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
    The Lions will keep playing hard to avoid an 0-8 start. I can't say the same for the Bears, who are in a Breather Alert. They play the Titans and Packers after this. Because they won a share of the divisional lead, they don't need a win here.

    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    Slight action on Chicago.
  • Percentage of money on Chicago: 60% (120,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 13 meetings.
  • History: Bears have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.
  • Bye Bye: Lovie Smith is 1-3 ATS after a bye.
  • Divisional Revenge: Rod Marinelli is 1-3 ATS in same-season revenge games.
  • Zero Heroes: 0-7 teams or worse are 14-6 ATS since 2000.
  • Lions are 6-12 ATS on the road since 2006.
  • Bears are 17-6 ATS in November since 2001.
  • Bears are 4-7 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Bears -12.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.

    Week 9 NFL Pick: Bears 23, Lions 13
    Lions +12.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Under 43.5 (2 Units) -- Incorrect; -$220
    Survivor Pick (6-2)
    Bears 27, Lions 23

    Baltimore Ravens (4-3) at Cleveland Browns (3-4)
    Line: Browns by 2. Total: 36.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 8): Browns -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 8): Browns -3.
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    The Game. Edge: Ravens.
    Injuries: Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), RB P.J. Daniels (IR), TE Quinn "Miracle Man" Sypniewski (IR), OT Marshal Yanda (IR), OT Adam Terry, DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Tavares Gooden (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR). Browns: OUT: WR Joe Jurevicius, OT Ryan Tucker (IR), G Lennie Friedman, DE Robaire Smith (IR), OLB Antwan Peek (IR).

    You have to give ESPN's Bob Ryan major dap for bringing up something I almost forgot. Because there was no Sunday Night Football, we were all forced to watch boring baseball. If you tuned in, you may have seen the worst rendition of the National Anthem of all time.

    The culprit was Patti LaBelle, who screamed and moaned as if she was getting electrocuted with 50,000 volts while having sex at the same time. I seriously thought my windows were going to shatter. If that wasn't bad enough, she screwed up the lyrics! She sang, "skylight's last gleaming" (instead of twilight's) and "through the perilous flight" (instead of perilous fight.) Factually correct and awful? We should have just had Emmitt sing, "The United States of Americans debacled the British!"

    Let's get to the matchups before I have an aneurysm.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Jekyll-and-Hyde Derek Anderson played pretty well at Jacksonville last week, going 14-of-27 for 246 yards and a touchdown. I'm not expecting a similar performance here, and I'll explain why:

    1. Jacksonville's defense sucks. I've documented this many times on this Web site over the course of this season. The Jaguars can't get to the quarterback or stop the run. Baltimore specializes in both.

    2. Anderson won't be able to benefit from Jamal Lewis. Lewis totaled 81 yards on 20 carries last week. As explained above, Baltimore is much better against the run (1st) than Jacksonville is (25th). Anderson will consequently struggle in long-yardage situations.

    3. There's a good chance Donte' Stallworth won't be available. Stallworth caught only three balls versus Jacksonville, but he's a legitimate deep threat Baltimore won't have to worry about. The Ravens may also get Chris McAlister back from injury. McAlister hasn't seen extensive action since he was humiliated at Indianapolis.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco, known as an interception and fumbling machine early in the season, has settled down recently. Before beating the Dolphins, Flacco had seven picks and five fumbles in five games. The past two weeks, Flacco has fumbled once and hasn't thrown an interception.

    Flacco didn't put up pretty numbers against the Raiders - 12-of-24 for 140 yards - but as noted, he didn't make any mistakes. More importantly, he actually came through when his team needed him most; he converted third-and-five, third-and-12, third-and-eight, third-and-20 and another third-and-12.

    Flacco will get some help from Willis McGahee this week. He should have his way with Cleveland's rush defense, ranked 28th in the NFL.

    RECAP: I'm going to bring up something I mentioned last week. Actually, I'll just copy-paste it because I'm lazy:

    Public perception is a funny thing. Take a look at the Browns, for example.

    They were considered the AFC North favorite in August, but after a 28-10 debacling at the hands of Dallas, everyone gambled against them the following week. Unfortunately for most bettors, Cleveland covered against Pittsburgh. After putting up a tough fight against the Steelers, the public sided with Cleveland at Baltimore. The Ravens won 28-10.

    Coming off their bye, no one gave them much of a chance against the Giants. Safe to say everyone was shocked when they won 35-14. Last week, many figured they would hang with the Redskins. Instead they were dominated, though they covered because of a Clinton Portis fumble and a subsequent cheap, backdoor touchdown.

    This trend continued to work. The public faded Cleveland at Jacksonville last week, yet the Browns were able to come up with a straight-up victory over a vastly overrated Jaguars squad.

    Now, everyone is back on the Cleveland bandwagon. This team is similar to Jacksonville; casual bettors have been wrong about the Browns every single step up of the way, and I see no reason why this won't continue.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    Believe it or not, the victor here will own a share of the second wildcard spot in the AFC, as long as the Jets lose to the Bills. Game on.

    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    No one likes old-fashioned defense. People are back on the Cleveland bandwagon. People really pounded Cleveland Sunday morning.
  • Percentage of money on Cleveland: 75% (121,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Browns.
  • History: Home Team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Ravens are 19-12 ATS in November.
  • Ravens are 13-21 ATS as an underdog the previous 34 instances (3-2 with John Harbaugh).
  • Ravens are 2-9 ATS on the road since 2007.
  • Ravens are 6-19 ATS after a home game since 2005.
  • Opening Line: Browns -1.
  • Opening Total: 36.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.

    Week 9 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 17
    Ravens +2 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Over 36 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Ravens 37, Browns 27

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-6)
    Line: Buccaneers by 9. Total: 36.5.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 8): Buccaneers -7.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 8): Buccaneers -6.5.
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    The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: FB Byron Storer (IR), CB Torrie Cox (IR), CB Sammy Davis (IR), S Jermaine Phillips. Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle (IR), QB Damon Huard (IR).

    Some college football notes:

    1. Did you know that CBS analyst Gary Danielson is learning grammar from Emmitt? It's true! If you listen closely to CBS' weekly SEC broadcast at 3:30 Eastern, you'll hear Danielson say something like, "He catched the ball." Clearly, Danielson has surpassed his master, Emmitt. Not even Emmitt says "catched." Blowed? Yes. Neededed? Definitely. Debacled? Absolutely! But catched!? Man, even Emmitt has to be thinking, "That man did not speaked English good."

    2. I listened to Kirk Herbstreit on PTI's podcast Saturday night after all the college games because I missed the show on Friday. I think Herbstreit is an awesome analyst, but he said something pretty crazy on the show. He opined that even if Ohio State beat Penn State, it didn't have a chance to win the national title (a.k.a. the Final Winter Practice Game) because it already had its chance against USC. The thing is, the Buckeyes didn't have their best player, Chris Wells, for that game. I don't think they would have won anyway, but you never know - that USC team lost to Oregon State and barely beat Arizona. This is exactly why college football sucks. You miss your best player for one game. You lose. Season over. To quote Dennis Green, "That's bulls**t, bulls**t!"

    3. Herbstreit went on to say that Ohio State's main goal should be to win the Rose Bowl (a.k.a. the Winter Practice Game at the Rose Bowl). My thoughts on this? Zzzzzzz... Who cares about the stinkin' Rose Bowl? It doesn't mean anything anymore. Whoop dee doo, you won the Rose Bowl! What are you going to do now, try to get into a different bowl (a.k.a. Winter Practice Game) next year instead of winning the national title? Who cares? I couldn't even name the previous five Rose Bowl winners if you gave me a sheet of paper with the names printed on it. I just don't care, and I never will.

    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: A week ago, many people would have opined that the Chiefs weren't capable of winning the Rose Bowl (a.k.a. the Winter Practice Game at the Rose Bowl) against either of the participants. But that was before Tyler Thigpen emerged as the greatest quarterback of all time, debacling the Jets for 25-of-36 for 280 yards and two interceptions.

    OK, maybe not... The Jets' secondary sucks. Tampa Bay will blitz the living daylights out of Thigpen, confusing the young quarterback with Monte Kiffin's perplexing schemes. I'm expecting three turnovers, half a dozen sacks and a YPA of less than five from Thigpen, who won't have the luxury of a strong ground game by his side; Tampa Bay is sixth versus the run.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Tampa Bay's offense is frustrating to watch because it has no downfield threat. Even if Joey Galloway is 100 percent this week, Jeff Garcia's dead arm doesn't have the strength to put the ball on the money.

    Fortunately for the Buccaneers, they'll be able to establish both Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn against Kansas City. The Chiefs' defense is a joke; it's ranked dead last versus the run, giving up a laughable 6.1 yards per carry.

    With Tampa Bay set to tally more than 200 rushing yards, Garcia will be able to capitalize off play-action, finding Galloway, Antonio Bryant and his numerous tight ends past the first-down marker.

    RECAP: It's obvious the Buccaneers have the talent to win this game, but can they muster a large enough advantage to cover?

    I believe so for two key reasons.

    First, the Buccaneers are coming off a loss that never should have happened. They were supposed to beat stinkin' Brad Johnson and the Cowboys. Now, they're suddenly looking up at the Panthers in their division. They need a win to catch up.

    Second, I swear by the Hello Goodbye trend. We haven't seen this in a while, but it basically says that you should play any favorite of 6.5 or more prior to its bye. The thinking behind this is that if a team is favored by a touchdown or more, you're betting on a good team. A good team tends to be focused before its week off. This trend is 30-5 against the spread since 2002.

    I know there is a massive amount of action on the Buccaneers, but Vegas is actually compensating for it, raising the line from -7.5 to -8.5 in a matter of 24 hours. That's good news for Tampa Bay backers.

    The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The Buccaneers are coming off a loss and have relinquished control of the NFC South. They have a bye coming up, so they'll bring 110 percent to the table here.

    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    No one's on the Chiefs, but the line is rising to compensate action.
  • Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 70% (137,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Hello, Good Bye: Favorites of 6.5 or more are 30-5 ATS going into their bye since 2002 (Jon Gruden 3-0).
  • Road Warrior: Coaches are 117-78 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss (Jon Gruden 2-2).
  • Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS as road favorites since 2004.
  • Chiefs are 2-8 ATS at home since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 37.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 74 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

    Week 9 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 10
    Buccaneers -9 (5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$550
    Over 36.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Buccaneers 30, Chiefs 27

    Houston Texans (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (3-4)
    Line: Vikings by 5.5. Total: 47.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 8): Vikings -4.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 8): Vikings -3.
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    The Game. Edge: None.
    Injuries: Texans: OUT: RB Chris Brown (IR), RB Chris Taylor (IR), G Fred Weary (IR), CB Jimmy Williams (IR), S C.C. Brown, KR Andre Davis. Vikings: OUT: DE Kenechi Udeze (IR), DT Kendrick Allen (IR), ILB E.J. Henderson S Madieu Williams, S Michael Boulware (IR).

    More college football notes:

    4. Watching the end of the Texas-Oklahoma State game, I noticed something disturbing. The camera panned to some Longhorn cheerleaders. Naturally, I got excited. That is, until I noticed something. They were wearing pants! What is that all about? It's Texas. It's supposed to be hot all the time. What a travesty. I'd recommend a new law that all cheerleaders in Texas can't wear pants during games, but I think that might be a sexist comment, so let's just move on.

    5. Speaking of that contest, super-hot sideline reporter Stacy Dales interviewed T. Boone Pickens, who recently gave tons of money to Oklahoma State's football program. Stacy asked T. Bone the following question, "You lost a billion dollars this week? What does that feel like?" Nice, Stacy. T. Bone, who already had the "Oh, crap! I think someone stole my car" face plastered on his mug, looked like he just saw something more terrible - like a bunch of cheerleaders wearing pants! Poor T. Bone!

    6. If you agree with me that college football needs a Doggone Playoff, or even if you don't, check out the argument Matt McGuire and I had in the forums about a possible College Football Playoff System. Voice your opinion so we can bring the greedy NCAA and college presidents to justice!

    Because the pro football doesn't screw its fans and isn't nearly as corrupt as college football, the Texans and Vikings still have a shot at the playoffs. Houston is a game removed from the second wildcard spot in the AFC. Minnesota, meanwhile, is a game behind the Packers and Bears for first place in the NFC North.

    Who will prevail in this critical battle? Let's check out the matchups:

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: When the Vikings added Jared Allen to their defense, their fans thought their defense would be among the NFL's elite. Minnesota is very good against the run (fourth in the NFL) but that's not anything new; they were ranked among the NFL's elite in that category last year as well.

    The disappointment has come in terms of pass rush and aerial defense. The Vikings have just 16 sacks on the year, which is really hurting a secondary ranked 20th versus the pass.

    Those figures have to be music to Matt Schaub's ears. Schaub has been on fire recently, throwing for 926 yards, six touchdowns and only two interceptions the past three weeks. Of course, it helps when you have the league's best receiver by your side (Randy Moss excluded until Tom Brady gets back). No one can cover Andre Johnson. He has at least 10 catches and 140 yards in his previous three outings.

    I don't see how the Vikings will be able to contain Houston's offense. In addition to Johnson, they have to worry about Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter and Steve Slaton coming out of the backfield.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Like the Texans, the Vikings should be able to score about five billion points in this game - but not because they have a dangerous offense or anything.

    Houston's defense sucks. Yeah, they have a few very good players like Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans and Dunta Robinson, but the Texans can't get to the quarterback (11 sacks), and struggle against both the run and the pass. They're 16th versus the former and 29th against the latter, giving up 26.4 points per game, good for seventh-worst in the NFL.

    Adrian Peterson could approach 150 rushing yards in this contest, setting up play-action opportunities for Gus Frerotte, who probably won't hit the turf at all.

    RECAP: I'm pretty shocked that the public is backing the Vikings. Casual bettors tend to flock toward offensive squads as opposed to defensive teams (see Browns-Ravens betting action).

    Perhaps people just aren't buying into the Texans just yet. Believe me, they're legit. They should have beaten the Colts in the Sage Rosenchoker game, and they lost at Jacksonville in overtime. A few lucky bounces, and they're 5-2 right now.

    Meanwhile, the Vikings really aren't that good. They barely beat the Lions and shouldn't have defeated the Saints. A few unlucky bounces, and they're 1-6.

    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    The Texans are one game out of the wildcard. The Vikings are one game out of the NFC North lead. Big game for both squads.

    The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
    I'm a bit shocked that people are backing the Vikings. They looked horrible three games prior to their bye, while Houston's offense is really clicking.
  • Percentage of money on Minnesota: 59% (134,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Bye Bye: Brad Childress is 2-0 ATS after a bye.
  • Texans are 10-20 ATS after a win (4-4 since 2007).
  • Opening Line: Vikings -4.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 9 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Vikings 21
    Texans +4.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 47 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Vikings 28, Texans 21

    Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-0)
    Line: Titans by 4. Total: 41.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 8): Titans -5.5.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 8): Titans -7.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: .
    Injuries: Packers: OUT: DT Justin Harrell, CB Al Harris.

    Before I get to the lesbian story I promised this week, I have to note that my leads are comprised of lesbians and cheerleaders who shouldn't be wearing pants. Google is gonna be pissed at me.

    Anyway, I was at my friend's show two weeks ago. I was there with about seven people, including my cousin Megan's hot friend Megan (confused yet?)

    After the show, we noticed that the place was slowly filling up with lesbians. There was this hideous woman on stage, while another woman with a little boy's haircut was staring at her like she was the love of her life. We also spotted three other female couples dining together.

    Tons of lesbians gathered in one room may sound hot, but not when they're either fat, ugly and/or old.

    Anyway, we decided to get out of there before we were converted into lesbians. I was attempting to game Megan - my cousin's friend; not my cousin, I swear - when we were stopped by one of the couples. The fat lesbian looked at Megan like she was a piece of meat and said, "Hey, this may sound forward, but I'm looking for a roommate." Megan, a bit confused, responded, "Uhh... well I'm in college and I live at home for now."

    The fat lesbian responded, "Do you know of any other women who would want to live with me? I'm not comfortable with living with a man." I replied, "Well, I guess I'm out of the picture, huh?" No response from the fat lesbian. The ugly lesbian looked at me as if I were a member of a Peruvian flute band. Both women then stared at Megan. and asked her if she was sure she couldn't live with them.

    At that point, I made an excuse to get us out of there. When we walked away, I looked back and saw them grinning menacingly at me. Should I be scared? Will they break into my home and beat me to death with dildos?

    OK, enough about dildos, lesbians and cheerleaders. Let's move on to other manly things:

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I was a bit shocked the Titans couldn't run the ball very well against the Colts. I know Indianapolis kept eight and nine men in the box, but they did the same thing to other teams and failed to stop the rush. Chris Johnson and LenDale White totaled 90 yards on 29 attempts - which is just a bit more than three yards per carry.

    I expect Tennessee's ground attack to rebound. The Packers, 27th against the rush, are even worse at defending it than Indianapolis is (23rd).

    With Johnson running wild and White devouring all foes in his path, Kerry Collins will have an easy time locating his receivers on third-and-short situations. Titans fans can only hope Justin Gage doesn't drop four balls again.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Ryan Grant finally eclipsed the 100-yard rushing barrier for the first time all season right before the bye. Unfortunately for Grant and his fantasy owners, it'll be back to futility. Tennessee is seventh versus the run, so Grant won't have any room to work with.

    This will be problematic for Aaron Rodgers, who will be asked to move the chains on his own. The Titans get to the quarterback fairly well (18 sacks) and will be better at doing so with Kyle Vanden Bosch back in the lineup. Meanwhile, Tennessee's secondary has the team ranked second versus the pass. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver will have a tough time getting open.

    RECAP: Not only are the Titans 7-0 straight up; they're also 7-0 against the spread. Can they make it 8-0 in both categories?

    It's quite possible, but I'm very confused by the line. Tennessee just had a huge statement victory on national TV. I thought this line would be -7 or something. Instead, Vegas made it -5.5, prompting casual bettors to pound the host. Why wouldn't the books want equal action here? Do they know something the public doesn't know?

    Perhaps. I just don't know how the Titans can be focused. Like I said, they had a statement win. They're 7-0, two games ahead of everyone in the AFC. They don't need this game as much as the Packers do.

    The Psychology. Edge: Packers.
    How much does this contest mean to the Titans? They just won a statement battle on national TV and are up two games on everyone in the AFC. The Packers, meanwhile, are in a close, three-way fight for the NFC North.

    The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
    Why did this line open at only -5.5? And why did it drop to -4.5? People just watched the Titans win a huge statement game on national TV.
  • Percentage of money on Tennessee: 51% (162,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Bye Bye: Mike McCarthy is 2-0 ATS after a bye.
  • Opening Line: Titans -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 72 degrees. Light wind.

    Week 9 NFL Pick: Titans 19, Packers 17
    Packers +4.5 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Under 41 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Titans 19, Packers 16

    Arizona Cardinals (4-3) at St. Louis Rams (2-5)
    Line: Cardinals by 3. Total: 49.

    Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 8): Cardinals -3.
    Walt's Projected Line (After Week 8): Cardinals -3.
    Sunday, 1:00 ET - Buy Tickets

    The Game. Edge: Cardinals.
    Injuries: Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR). Rams: OUT: FB Brian Leonard (IR), WR Keenan Burton, TE Randy McMichael (IR), OT Brandon Gorin (IR), G Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Justin King (IR), CB Ricky Manning Jr. (IR).

    The video of the week is actually a collection of 15 Sportscasting Bloopers. The ones worth watching are Nos. 2, 3 (Dan Marino spazzes out - maybe I should stop making fun of him), 5 (Lee Corso drops the F-bomb), 9 (the guy can't pronounce a tennis player's name correctly) and of course 14 (I want to kiss you!) and 15 (the all-time greatest).

    I can't believe the Cardinals didn't cover last week. They were up 10-0 in the second quarter and 17-3 in the third. Botched field goal and extra point attempts, an unlucky interception and a fumble butchered Arizona's chances.

    Despite all that, they came half a point away from beating the number at powerful 6-2 Carolina. They'll easily cover at St. Louis, right?

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: After all, Kurt Warner is unstoppable right now. Warner is second in the league with 2,089 yards. He also has 14 touchdowns. The Rams and their pathetic secondary are ranked 31st versus the pass, so they stand no chance at defending Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston.

    The Cardinals normally can't run the ball, but they may have some success doing so in this contest; St. Louis would be ranked dead last versus the rush if it wasn't for abysmal Denver and Kansas City. Ken Whisenhunt has vowed to get Tim Hightower the ball more frequently, which is good news for Cardinals fans. Edgerrin James is over the hill and ineffective.

    The one chance St. Louis' defense has is if it gets to Warner. Chris Long is finally emerging as a force; he had two sacks against Matt Light last week, bringing his rookie total to four. Leonard Little also has four, but he's a bit banged up and may not be 100 percent. The Cardinals have allowed 15 sacks on the year, so it's not like applying pressure on Warner is impossible or anything.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Great news for the Rams - Steven Jackson said that he should be ready to go. St. Louis will need all of its offensive weapons available to keep up with the high-flying Cardinals. I don't think Jackson will have a huge game by any means - Arizona is eighth versus the run - but his being in the backfield will make the Cardinals respect the rush, softening up their pass defense a bit.

    The Cardinals have talented players in their secondary, but apparently not enough; they happen to be ranked 28th against the pass. They couldn't keep Steve Smith out of the end zone last week, and they should have similar problems against Torry Holt and the emerging Donnie Avery.

    One thing Arizona will be able to do is sack Marc Bulger into oblivion; the team doesn't have the greatest pass rush in the world, but St. Louis' offensive line simply sucks. The Rams have permitted 24 sacks in seven contests.

    RECAP: The Cardinals seem to be the better team. If that's the case, why are they favored by only three points? If the public is senselessly pounding them like they know the score, why hasn't the line risen to compensate? Why doesn't Vegas want equal action?

    Aside from Vegas implications, I can list three other reasons why I believe St. Louis is the right side:

    1. Road Game: The Cardinals are a different team as a visitor. The media has talked about this, but apparently, it's not getting through to the general public. It's tough to win on the road in the NFL, and Arizona hasn't mastered the art of doing so just yet. They will in time - but until they do, they can't be trusted as a road favorite.

    2. Jet Lag: One reason it's tough to win on the road is jet lag. The Cardinals will have a double dose of that. After traveling all the way across the country to battle Carolina, they flew back to their home in the desert. A few days later, they're on a plane to St. Louis. They have to be exhausted.

    3. Rams Effort: St. Louis is trying very hard for Jim Haslett. You can see it. They've been a much better team since Scott Linehan was booted out of the Edward Jones Dome. Since Haslett took over, the Rams have beaten the Redskins and Cowboys as massive underdogs, and held their own at New England.

    I can't see Arizona matching St. Louis' intensity. The Cardinals don't need to win this game. They're 4-3, sitting fat and happy atop the NFC West by two games. They have no reason to get up for this game. The Rams do.

    The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
    The Rams are playing tough. Though the Cardinals are coming off a loss, they're still a billion games ahead of everyone in the NFC West, so they don't really need a win.

    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    No surprise that everyone is betting their mortgage on the Cardinals at a cheap price.
  • Percentage of money on Arizona: 77% (140,000 bets)

    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Road Team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings.
  • Road Bum: Coaches are 117-78 ATS on the road immediately following a road loss (Ken Whisenhunt 0-2).
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -3.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: Dome.

    Week 9 NFL Pick: Rams 24, Cardinals 20
    Rams +3 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
    Under 49 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
    Cardinals 34, Rams 13

    Week 9 NFL Picks - Late Games
    Dolphins at Broncos, Falcons at Raiders, Cowboys at Giants, Eagles at Seahawks, Patriots at Colts, Steelers at Redskins

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks - Late Games

    2009 NFL Mock Draft

    2010 NFL Mock Draft

    2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

    College Football Picks


    Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

    1 Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 (-$770)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2014): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2014): 0-1 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2014): -$65

    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)

    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
    2014 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-41, 55.0% (+$1,500)
    2014 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 12-17-1, 41.4% (-$1,990)
    2014 Season Over-Under: 144-119-2, 54.8% ($0)
    2014 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$630

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$2,550)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$2,620)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$3,370)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$6,080)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,925)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$5,760)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,580)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
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    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,157-1,978-117, 52.2% (+$10,530)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 694-624-31 (52.7%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 288-251-11 (53.4%)
    Career Over-Under: 1,685-1,655-48 (50.5%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 30-19 (61.2%)

    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 7-11
    Bears: 8-8
    Bucs: 9-7
    49ers: 8-7
    Eagles: 9-7
    Lions: 8-8
    Falcons: 8-8
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 5-11
    Packers: 13-4
    Panthers: 8-10
    Rams: 8-8
    Redskins: 8-8
    Vikings: 12-4
    Saints: 6-9
    Seahawks: 10-9
    Bills: 7-9
    Bengals: 6-11
    Colts: 8-10
    Broncos: 8-9
    Dolphins: 10-5
    Browns: 9-5
    Jaguars: 10-6
    Chargers: 7-9
    Jets: 8-8
    Ravens: 10-8
    Texans: 8-7
    Chiefs: 9-6
    Patriots: 10-9
    Steelers: 9-8
    Titans: 8-6
    Raiders: 7-9
    Divisional: 36-39 (2011-13: 141-137)
    2x Game Edge: 14-19 (2011-13: 55-62)
    2x Psych Edge: 29-25 (2011-13: 92-80)
    2x Vegas Edge: 47-41 (2011-13: 129-142)
    2x Trend Edge: 35-21 (2011-13: 72-78)
    Double Edge: 16-13 (2011-13: 27-33)
    Triple Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 2-1)
    Quad Edge: 0-0 (2011-13: 0-0)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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