Week 8 NFL Picks – WalterFootball

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2008): 11-5 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2008): 7-7-1 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2008): 10-6 (+$860)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2008): 6-7 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2008): 8-6 (+$230)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2008): 9-5 (+$2,260)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2008): 4-10 (-$770)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 26, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
Line: Ravens by 8. Total: 35.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Ravens -5.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Ravens -6.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Ravens.
Injuries: Raiders: OUT: WR Drew Carter (IR), G Paul McQuistan (IR). Ravens: OUT: QB Kyle Boller (IR), RB P.J. Daniels (IR), TE Quinn “Miracle Man” Sypniewski (IR), OT Marshal Yanda (IR), OT Adam Terry, DT Kelly Gregg (IR), DT Dwan Edwards (IR), ILB Tavares Gooden (IR), ILB Prescott Burgess (IR). QUESTIONABLE: CB Chris McAlister, CB Samari Rolle.

What a frustrating Week 7. I had my first disastrous weekend of the year, thanks to the following:

1. The Texans dominated the Lions and led by 18 in the fourth quarter, but lost the cover, thanks to a pair of 54-yard field goals. Goodbye, one unit.

2. The Redskins dominated the Browns and led 14-3, but Clinton Portis fumbled on Washington’s 20, giving the Browns an easy touchdown. Goodbye, one unit.

3. Worst of all, the Buccaneers dominated the Seahawks the entire game and led 20-3. A missed field goal, poor play-calling on third down, a great return by Seattle and a cheap touchdown with two minutes left, and Tampa Bay loses the cover. Goodbye, FOUR units.

4. And to top it off, Jay Cutler gets hurt on the first play of the Monday night game, Andre Hall fumbles twice in New England territory, and a shady ref no one has ever seen before calls inexplicable penalties on Denver. Goodbye, three units.

Ugh. If it sounds like I’m whining like a baby, well, I am! I thought I handicapped those games perfectly, yet some fluke plays and/or injuries debacled me. I can handle one loss like that per week, but four? Whose grave did I piss on when I went out drinking on Thursday night?

Anyway… moving on…

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: OK… maybe we’re not moving on just yet. In two of those instances, we saw two offensively challenged teams favored by a touchdown or more fail to cover. That would be the Redskins -7.5 and Buccaneers -10.5. Yes, they dominated their respective contests, but neither scoring unit put up enough points to beat the number. Perhaps I didn’t handicap those games to the best of my ability.

Why do I bring this up? Because Baltimore is a touchdown favorite. How am I supposed to endorse laying seven points when I’m not even convinced the Ravens can even score more than seven points?

The Ravens will be able to run the ball with Willis McGahee, who is coming off the best performance of this season, gaining 105 yards on just 19 carries. The Raiders are 22nd against the run, so they won’t be able to stop him.

McGahee’s expected 100-yard performance should set up Joe Flacco in favorable situations, but I’m not yet convinced that he can take care of the ball to put enough points on the scoreboard. He’s just way too inconsistent. Sure, he played well against Miami, but he spontaneously combusted the week before. In six games, Flacco has seven picks and six fumbles.

Additionally, Flacco has been sacked 13 times this year. The Ravens’ offensive line has been ravaged with injuries. The Raiders have 16 sacks on the year, so they should be able to rattle him enough into some unforced errors.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: JaMarcus Russell is getting better every week. You can see him gaining more confidence. Last week, he was 17-of-30 for 203 yards and a touchdown, and had another score taken off the board because of a penalty.

I know the Ravens have one of the top defenses in the league, but they’re really banged up in the secondary. Who knows if Chris McAlister is going to play this week? And I don’t know if Samari Rolle, who is expected to come back, is even 100 percent.

Baltimore is ranked first against the rush, so the run-oriented Raiders should struggle to move the chains, right? You would think so, but despite the fact that Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden were bottled up by the Jets (second versus the rush), Oakland moved the chains effectively.

RECAP: As I mentioned, I can’t advise laying -6.5 or -7 with the offensively challenged and turnover-prone Ravens.

So, how much do I like the Raiders? A lot, actually.

First of all, Oakland is known as a bad team, but I would disagree with that. They led in the fourth quarter against the Chargers and at Buffalo. They just beat the Jets. They’re not nearly as terrible as the Chiefs, Lions, Bengals and the like.

Second, I know the Raiders are a West Coast team playing on the East Coast at an early time, but that’s creating tremendous line value for us. Oakland is actually 3-1 against the spread in that situation the past season and a half. If the Raiders can hang with the Bills at 1 p.m., I think they can do the same with the Ravens.

Third, look at the line movement. Despite the fact that the public is backing the Ravens at an alarming percentage, the spread has dropped from -7 to -6.5. Why does Vegas want even more action on Baltimore?

THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE: This line has moved up, which is worrying me a bit. I’m lowering this to four units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
In the words of Rasheed Wallace, “Both teams play hard.” You had to love the effort from the Raiders under the Cable guy last week.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

The public loves the Ravens. After falling from -7 to -6.5, the line has moved up to -7.5. On Thursday, it went back to -7 again. Now, it’s -7.5 again.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 85% (120,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 24-43 ATS since 2002 (Lane Kiffin 3-1).

Raiders are 8-16 ATS in October since 2001.

Opening Line: Ravens -7.

Opening Total: 35.

Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Raiders 18
Raiders +8 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 35 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Ravens 29, Raiders 10

Buffalo Bills (5-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Bills -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Bills -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Bills.

Injuries: Bills: OUT: OLB Angelo Crowell (IR), ILB John DiGiorgio (IR). QUESTIONABLE: DE Aaron Schobel, CB Terrence McGee. Dolphins: OUT: G Donald Thomas (IR).

Each week, I like to take a look at how Vegas fared.

It looked like it was going to be a ho-hum week for the books after the 1 p.m. games, but everything changed late Sunday afternoon. The Lions’ inexplicable backdoor cover, Oakland’s win in overtime and Green Bay’s blowout victory over the Colts earned Vegas a ton of money. Things only got better when the books saw Seattle backdoor Tampa Bay and Jay Cutler go down with a hand injury. In short, Vegas debacled the public in Week 7.

By the way, I’m going to make it an effort to use some form of debacle in each of my write-ups. I urge you to do the same. If you’re in school, use “debacled, debacling, debaclism, debacalation or debacalatory” in your paper. If you work in an office, use one of these words when you fill out your TPS reports. We must make this a real word by the end of this decade!

MIAMI OFFENSE: Speaking of debacalation, what happened to the once-glorious Wildcat offense? The Dolphins gained just 24 yards out of it against the Ravens. If you missed it, I gave four possible explanations as to how Baltimore shut it down in my Week 8 NFL Power Rankings.

The fact of the matter is, Baltimore’s defense was just way too dominant for such a rinky-dinky scheme. It might have worked against the archaic Patriots and jet-lagged Chargers, but it doesn’t stand much of a chance versus the premier stop units in the NFL.

I would put the Bills in that pantheon. Despite missing Aaron Schobel and Terrence McGee, Buffalo held Philip Rivers and the Chargers to just 14 points. Both have a good chance of playing in this contest.

There’s no way Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will be able to run against the Bills, thanks to Marcus Stroud, who’s a tremendous force in the middle of the defense. That’ll put the noodle-armed Chad Pennington and his slew of mediocre targets in long-yardage situations. If Schobel plays, I like his chances going up against Jake Long.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Miami has been competitive this year because of its inexplicably improved defense. Joey Porter is actually productive for a change, while Matt Roth has emerged as a beast.

The Dolphins are ninth versus the run, but that may change soon; Willis McGahee ran all over the Fish behind a banged-up offensive line, so there’s a good chance Marshawn Lynch could break out and come close to the 100-yard mark.

It’s important that he does so; that’ll keep Miami’s pass rush (16 sacks) honest. Trent Edwards, who has emerged as an MVP candidate, will in turn burn the Dolphins’ horrible secondary, ranked 29th against the pass. If Lynch can’t run effectively, Edwards could have trouble getting out of obvious-throwing downs.

RECAP: The Bills may seem like an obvious play here. They’re coming off a statement victory that has everyone impressed. The only blemish on their record came with Zohan playing quarterback in Arizona.

Maybe this is a little too obvious? Why is this line only -1.5? Shouldn’t it be three at the very least?

Well, looking at schedule dynamics, the Bills may not be focused, as this game is right after a big win over the Chargers and right before the Jets and Patriots.

Buffalo’s mindset will be a huge determining factor in the outcome of this contest. This team is very young and doesn’t have any playoff experience, so I’m not sure they can avoid looking past an “easy win.”

Miami is bad, but they’re not terrible; they dominated the 4-2 Patriots and defeated the 3-4 Chargers as large underdogs. Buying the Dolphins off a loss seems somewhat lucrative, especially with this very shady line.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

I know the Bills hate the Dolphins, but this appears to be a possible Sandwich Situation. The Bills just won a huge statement game against the Chargers. The next two weeks, they have the Jets and Patriots. Miami was awful against Joe Flacco and the Ravens, so Buffalo may look past the Fish.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

The public is pounding the Bills, yet the line remains at -1.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 81% (127,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Bills are 12-1 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Dolphins are 9-3 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 12 instances.

Dolphins are 4-15 ATS vs. AFC East since 2005.

Chad Pennington is 17-10 ATS off a loss.

Chad Pennington is 4-9 ATS as a home dog.

Opening Line: Bills -1.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Possible showers, 81 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Dolphins 13, Bills 12
Dolphins +1 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 42 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Dolphins 25, Bills 16

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5) at New York Jets (3-3)
Line: Jets by 14. Total: 39.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Jets -13.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Jets -13.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Injuries: Chiefs: OUT: QB Brodie Croyle (IR), QB Damon Huard (IR), RB Larry Johnson. EXPECTED TO START: QB Tyler Thigpen. Jets: OUT: ILB Brad Kassell (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Jerricho Cotchery*.

It’s the Herm Edwards Bowl – his old team versus his new team! How exciting! I wish we could clone Herm so he could coach both teams. It would be the most conservative game ever! There would be punts on second and third downs. No passes would be thrown. No fourth-down conversion attempts. And a score of 0-0 after overtime. Actually, that would be pretty boring. Damn, you Herm!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: One can only laugh at how Kansas City’s quarterbacking corps was debacled last week. Brodie Croyle finally comes back from injury, goes 9-of-10, but then gets his knee ripped to shreds. Damon Huard then comes in, plays a bit worse, and then has to leave the game with an injury to his throwing hand. After that, it was Tyler Thigpen’s turn, and he was much worse than Huard. Thigpen might be the worst quarterback in the NFL, though Brad Johnson could have something to say about that.

The outcome of this game rests on Huard’s hand injury. If he plays and happens to be close to 100 percent, the Chiefs should be able to move the chains enough to give themselves a chance to cover. If Huard plays hurt or if Thigepn is forced to start, they have no shot.

Larry Johnson may miss another game as well. Johnson allegedly spat in a woman’s face and then threatened to kill her boyfriend. What a class act. Not that it would matter anyway; Johnson is over-the-hill and the Jets are second versus the rush. Once again, the Chiefs won’t be able to run the ball.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Chiefs became the first team to allow 1,000 rushing yards this season, thanks to Tennessee’s 334-yard performance last week. Kansas City now allows 6.1 yards per carry. I bet you could beat the Chiefs by calling a running play on every single down.

Thomas Jones broke out of his shell last week, totaling 159 yards on 24 carries. Jones should have an even better performance against the Chiefs. If a 400-pound fat man can run for an 80-yard touchdown, imagine what Jones will be able to do.

The Chiefs are obviously better against the pass than they are against the run, but that’s not saying much; they’re 26th versus the former. Brett Favre will rebound off an abysmal two-interception performance and torch Kansas City’s putrid secondary.

RECAP: The Jets are obviously better than the Chiefs, but can they cover? Signs point to yes.

First of all, the Jets desperately need a victory here. Dropping to 3-4 would be disastrous, especially considering that the Bills and Patriots could be 6-1 and 5-2, respectively, after beating inferior foes this Sunday.

I also like the idea of buying New York low after a loss. The public is backing Kansas City, yet the line has jumped up from -11.5 to -13, which tells me the books want even more action on the visitor.

Look, the Jets were in a tough spot last week; going to the West Coast and winning is very difficult. We saw what happened to the Jets when they played the Chargers on the road. Well, they came back the following week and obliterated the Cardinals. I’d say Arizona is just a tad better than Kansas City, wouldn’t you?

SURVIVOR PICK: I’m going with the Jets. I know the Texans look easy, but the Bengals are desperate to get their first win. Plus, Houston’s defense sucks. I trust the Jets more to beat an abysmal Chiefs squad.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Jets need a win to keep pace with the Bills and Patriots. They can’t afford to lose again. Herm Edwards coached the Jets in 2001-2005 (could be too long ago?)

The Vegas. Edge: None.
First the public liked the Chiefs. Then, most of the money was on the Jets. Now, it’s even. What gives?

Percentage of money on New York: 59% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Chiefs are 15-8 ATS in October since 2002.

Chiefs are 7-4 ATS as a road underdog since 2007.

Chiefs are 4-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog under Herm Edwards.

Jets are 8-5 ATS as a favorite under Eric Mangini.

Opening Line: Jets -11.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Sunny, 61 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Jets 31, Chiefs 10
Jets -14 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 39 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Survivor Pick (5-2)
Jets 28, Chiefs 24

Atlanta Falcons (4-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)
Line: Eagles by 9. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Eagles -6.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Eagles -6.

Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Injuries: Falcons: OUT: CB Von Hutchins (IR). Eagles: OUT: G Shawn Andrews, CB Jack Ikegwuonu (IR). QUESTIONABLE: WR Reggie Brown, WR Kevin Curtis.

Andy Reid sucks going into a bye and thrives coming out of one. Rather than spending energy and trying to think of something creative to figure out why Big Red can’t win before his week off, let’s use what I wrote last year:

Has anyone ever figured out why Andy Reid is horrible prior to the bye and undefeated after the week off? This is undoubtedly one of life’s greatest mysteries. On a local Philadelphian sports-talk TV show, Daily News Live, the anchor asked Jon Runyan about this phenomenon. Runyan joked, “If I knew the answer, I could sell that information.”

Fortunately for Runyan, I can sell him my theory so he can profit off of it. Reid devours his opponents after the bye because he spends his entire week eating cheese steaks. Like spinach is to Popeye, cheese steaks give Reid the power to beat other teams. As for the game prior to the bye, Reid obviously spends too much time at the supermarket, preparing for his week of relaxation. So… how much are you willing to give me, Runyan? Fifty thousand? A hundred grand?

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Speaking of Runyan, the Eagles’ offensive line will have their hands full with John Abraham, who has seven sacks on the year. Despite that statistic, however, Atlanta has only 10 sacks as a defensive unit. Jamaal Anderson has been a huge disappointment; he registered his first career sack right before the Week 7 bye.

Without having much pressure in his face, Donovan McNabb should be able to locate his receivers downfield. Whether they’re open or not is the question. That depends if DeSean Jackson is on the field. That may sound silly, but Jackson didn’t play against the Redskins because the great Reggie Brown was back in the lineup. Smooth move, Big Red. Way to keep your second-best skill-position player on the bench in favor of a guy who can’t beat coverage or consistently catch passes!

More problems for the Eagles: In addition to Brown getting healthier, there’s a chance Kevin Curtis will be back. At this rate, Reid may just ban Jackson from the stadium entirely!

The good news for Philadelphia fans – besides the fact that the Phillies are going to the World Series – is that Brian Westbrook is back and ready to go. The Falcons are 24th against the run, so Westbrook should be able to make them look silly.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan has been amazing this year. Save for two epic drives against Virginia Tech, Ryan didn’t play well at Boston College, so this comes as a surprise to me. Ryan completely debacled a banged-up Bears secondary two weeks ago, torching them for 300-plus yards and a clutch toss to Michael Jenkins along the sideline, setting up Jason Elam for a game-winning kick.

The difference in this game is that Ryan won’t have the luxury of burning reserve corners (Chicago’s starters were out); Philadelphia’s group is one of the best in the business. Ryan also won’t have the luxury of Michael Turner putting him in manageable down-and-distance situations, given that the Eagles are seventh against the run.

While Philadelphia stops the rush efficiently, its defensive forte is getting to the quarterback. The Eagles have 21 sacks on the year, which may cause problems for an Atlanta line, despite the fact that Ryan’s blockers have played really well this year (seven sacks allowed).

RECAP: Will Reid prevail and advance his post-bye record to 8-2 against the spread? I believe so.

The line is pretty high here. Atlanta just beat Chicago, so the 9-point spread is turning away some bettors from taking the Eagles.

The bottom line is that Philadelphia really needs a victory here. The Eagles are in last place and can’t afford to fall any further back behind the Giants and Redskins. The Falcons, meanwhile, are playing with house money. They weren’t expected to contend for a postseason berth; yet they’re just half a game back in the NFC South.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Falcons are playing with house money right now, as people are talking playoffs with this young group. The Eagles, meanwhile, are in last place in the NFC East and need to start racking up victories to hang with the Giants and Redskins.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action, but why is the line rising?

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 56% (156,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 49-32 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Andy Reid is 7-2 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Eagles -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 62 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Eagles 31, Falcons 17
Eagles -9 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 45 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Eagles 27, Falcons 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (4-3)
Line: Cowboys by 2. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Cowboys -4 (Johnson) or Cowboys -7 (Romo).
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Cowboys -3 (Johnson) or Cowboys -6 (Romo).
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

Injuries: Buccaneers: OUT: FB Byron Storer (IR), CB Torrie Cox (IR), CB Sammy Davis (IR). Cowboys: OUT: RB Felix Jones*, WR Sam Hurd (IR), G Kyle Kosier, CB Terence Newman, CB Pacman Jones (SUSP), S Roy Williams (IR), P Mat McBriar (IR). QUESTIONABLE: QB Tony Romo*.

Let’s combine the College Football Notes and the Video of the Week into one lead. If you’ve been paying attention to college football recently, you know where I’m going with this. If not, check out this video. The referee in this game tackles a scrambling South Carolina quarterback!

He actually moved into Stephen Garcia! He stared him down, stepped toward him and took him down with an elbow! There are three possible explanations for what happened here:

1. The official either had money on LSU, or was paid off to have LSU cover the number. But hey, that’s not possible, right? I mean, with Tim Donaghy deciding NBA playoff games and Bruce Gradkowski shaving points at Toledo, there’s no way a college football game can be fixed!

2. The official has dimensia and thought he was playing football again (he used to be a linebacker at Kentucky). After the game, he went to the bar to celebrate our landing on the moon.

3. The official was on LSD and thought he was tackling the creators of FOX’s Hole in the Wall. Those bastards must be stopped. Seriously.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The way Dallas played last week, you’d think all the players were on LSD. I can understand allowing long aerial touchdowns because of the injuries Dallas has in its secondary, but not being able to contain Steven Jackson? What’s up with that?

Well, whatever’s going on in Dallas bodes well for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay boasts one of the premier offensive lines in the NFL, and thus can run the ball effectively on almost anyone. If the Cowboys couldn’t contain Jackson behind an Orlando Pace-less front, I don’t see how they can stop Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn.

With Graham and Dunn going at full speed, Jeff Garcia will have an easier time finding Antonio Bryant and the rest of his receivers downfield. Terence Newman, Pacman Jones and Roy Williams are all out yet again, which has to be music to Garcia’s ears.

If Dallas’ defense wants to get off the field, DeMarcus Ware will have to get by left tackle Donald Penn. Penn has played really well this year, but no one gets to the quarterback as well as Ware, who leads the league with nine sacks.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo is once again out, meaning Brad Johnson will get another start. I thought Johnson would at least be capable with Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Marion Barber and Roy Williams at his disposal. Guess not. Johnson went 17-of-34 for 234 yards, one touchdown and three picks. Johnson could have thrown at least three more interceptions against the Rams.

Johnson, who looks like the worst quarterback in the NFL, save for Tyler Thigpen, figures to have no chance against the Buccaneers. If he can’t perform well against the horrific Rams, how is he going to move the chains against a dominant Tampa Bay secondary?

The Cowboys’ only hope is establishing Marion Barber. That, however, figures to be problematic, seeing as how Tampa Bay is 10th versus the rush.

RECAP: Oh, man. This could get ugly for the Cowboys. There’s no chance they win this game, right?

Believe it or not, but I like Dallas. I’ll give you four reasons:

1. The NFL is a funny thing. Everyone is talking about Dallas being finished. Usually when this happens, the team responds with an improbable victory.

2. Dallas needs a win much more than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are coming off two impressive victories and are sitting comfortably atop the NFC South. The Cowboys, meanwhile, will be in danger of falling to last place with a loss here.

3. Tampa Bay can’t win on the road. In three away games, they lost to New Orleans; should have gone down to Chicago (a Charles Tillman penalty on fourth-and-long nullified a Buccaneers punt out of the end zone in overtime); and were down 16-6 at Denver before a late, backdoor touchdown by Garcia.

4. I like the idea of buying the Cowboys on a ridiculous low. Their ugly loss to St. Louis has prompted nine-tenths of the bettors to pound the Buccaneers. Despite that, the line has moved up from -1 to -2. Why do the books want even more action on Tampa Bay? It makes no sense.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

A major bounce-back victory is needed for the Cowboys, who were just embarrassed by the freaking Rams. Jerry Jones lashed out at the entire team. That said, there’s a chance they may not respond; all of the poor characters Jones has collected are taking a toll on the team’s chemistry.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

No surprise that people are fading the fading Cowboys. So, if that’s the case, why did the line move up from -1 to -2?

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 64% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Losing Coach: Wade Phillips is 0-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Buccaneers are 9-20 ATS on the road after a win under Jon Gruden.

Buccaneers are 6-10 ATS off back-to-back wins since 2003.

Cowboys are 7-4 ATS after a loss since 2006.

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Sunny, 82 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 23
Cowboys -2 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 40.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Cowboys 13, Buccaneers 9

Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at Carolina Panthers (5-2)
Line: Panthers by 4. Total: 43.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Panthers -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Panthers -6.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
Injuries: Cardinals: OUT: C Scott Peters (IR). Panthers: OUT: LB Dan Connor (IR).

In addition to my college football notes, I wanted to discuss Penn State’s inexplicable slow start against Michigan on Saturday. If you missed it, the No. 3 Nittany Lions trailed the Wolverines 17-7 early on despite being 23-point favorites. When Michigan scored its second touchdown, I received 10 calls/IMs/texts within in a span of 15 minutes from Penn State fans who were freaking out. The most memorable was from my cousin Steve, a current Penn State student, who had $50 on the game ($50 for a college student is like $50,000 for a regular person). Here was an amusing exchange between us, as Steve tried to rationalize why the Nittany Lions were down 10:

Steve: I’m telling you, Walt. It’s the weather here.

Me: “The weather?” I asked as I swore to myself for not checking the weather reports. “What’s going on with the weather?”

Steve: “It’s cold as balls here, man.”

Me: “Really? How cold is it?”

Steve: “It was like 30 degrees last night.”

Me: “So, how cold is it now?”

Steve: “I don’t know, I didn’t go outside today.”

Classic. And you know what? It definitely was the weather. Damn you weather for making me scared that I would lose four units on Penn State not covering the -23!

Speaking of slow starts, what happened to the Saints last week? 30-7? How did the Panthers go from losing by 24 to winning by 23?

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Jake Delhomme is just playing great right now. Coming off Tommy John surgery, Delhomme didn’t look too promising in my eyes this preseason, but he really rebounded well. If you take out a fluke Tampa Bay performance (two of his three picks bounced off his own receivers’ hands), he has seven touchdowns and just two interceptions this year. Of course, it helps to have a rejuvenated rushing attack and Steve Smith as a downfield target.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who are now splitting carries pretty evenly, are both gaining four yards per carry. Those averages may slip a tad, as the Cardinals are an amazing fifth against the run.

With Williams and Stewart running in mud, Delhomme will have to operate out of obvious-passing situations. Arizona loves getting to the quarterback (18 sacks), so that could be problematic for him. Steve Smith should get his own, but Arizona’s solid secondary should keep everyone else in check. I know the Cardinals are 27th versus the pass, but that figure is skewed because of Brett Favre’s six-touchdown performance against them. Adrian Wilson, Arizona’s top defensive player, was out for that game. The Cardinals are nothing without him.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Anquan Boldin is back, which is great news, right? Absolutely, considering the Panthers are second versus the pass, coming off a complete debacling of Drew Brees and his aerial attack. Kurt Warner’s going to need all the help he can get because Julius Peppers is having an All-Pro-caliber campaign.

Carolina is just 16th against the rush, but the Cardinals won’t be able to expose that weakness; Edgerrin James is way too old and ineffective, gaining just 3.6 yards per carry. Tim Hightower is much more explosive and deserves more opportunities. I know Hightower’s rushing average is only 3.0, but that’s because he gets so many short-yardage and goal-line attempts.

That said, I can’t see Arizona’s offense struggling all that much. Kurt Warner is playing at the top of his game, and he has three dynamic wideouts at his disposal. Drew Brees only had one, but it looked like Marques Colston wasn’t ready to play. If Boldin isn’t either, Warner can still go to Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston.

RECAP: I’m loving how the national media is talking about how West Coast teams can’t win on the East Coast at 1 p.m. The public is buying into this, as casual bettors are laying the farm on Baltimore and Carolina this week. Line movement isn’t matching the action in either contest.

If these analysts would visit this Web site, they’d know that taking an East Coast squad in an early game for a West Coast team depends entirely on the coach. Mike Holmgren and Mike Nolan suck at flying cross-country. Lane Kiffin and Ken Whisenhunt don’t.

For a chart of all coaches’ records going West to East for an early game, check out the following page in my NFL Betting Trends section.

Sure, Arizona is 0-2 against the spread in this situation this year, but they were highly competitive against 5-2 Washington, and as mentioned before, they didn’t have Wilson versus the Jets. Without Wilson, they have no shot.

Wilson will definitely be playing here in what could be a statement game for the Cardinals. Everyone talks about them being an awful road team. This is a good chance for them to rectify that.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
With a bye coming up, the Panthers should be focused, even after slaughtering the Saints. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are in first place of the NFC West by a mile. If they lose their remaining 10 games they still might win the division! This could be a statement game for them, as everyone always talks about their inability to win on the road.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Most of the money is on the Panthers. Guess no one’s a believer in the Cardinals on the road, especially in an early East Coast game. Oddly enough, this line is now -4.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 85% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Early Game Alert: Pacific Teams playing on the Atlantic Coast at 1:00 PM are 24-43 ATS since 2002 (Ken Whisenhunt 3-3).

Panthers are 12-20 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.

Panthers are 7-9 ATS as a favorite since 2006.

Panthers are 18-25 ATS at home since 2003.

Jake Delhomme is 12-18 ATS as a home favorite.

Opening Line: Panther -4.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Sunny, 67 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Cardinals 20, Panthers 17
Cardinals +4 (1 Unit) — Push; -$10
Under 43 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Panthers 27, Cardinals 23

San Diego Chargers (3-4) vs. New Orleans Saints (3-4)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Chargers -1.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Chargers -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET at London – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: None.
Injuries: Chargers: OUT: WR Eric Parker (IR). Saints: OUT: TE Jeremy Shockey, DT Hollis Thomas (IR), DT DeMario Pressley (IR), ILB Mark Simoneau (IR), CB Tracy Porter (IR), K Martin Gramatica (IR).

In honor of this game being played in London, I’m going to compile this write-up in British for our friends from across the pond. Or, as Emmitt Smith would say, “I’m going to compiles these write-up in British!” Or, as Keyshawn Johnson would say, “I’m going to compile this write-up in French!” Or as Boomer Esiason would say, “You suck, Troy Aikman!”

I pitied Uncle Tom Cobley and all the blokes in London who ‘ad to watch this match last year. The Giants went on to win the Super Bowl, but as I wrote, the Dolphins were hardly the dogs bollocks. Well, can’t say the locals across the pond are going to be miffed with this matchup.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: As all the Yanks know, Drew Brees is bloody brilliant. He has 2,224 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions, putting him on pace to match Dan Marino’s season record for passing yards. Have to say the local gits in New Oreans are chuffed about that one.

Cor blimey, how is San Diego’s dodgy defense supposed to contain New Orleans’ passing attack? Chargers fans were a bit knackered when they heard Shawne Merriman was out for the year. Jamal Williams has been a bit ropey and has become an old git. I reckon Brees will throw for more than 300 yards again. Brees and his best mate Marques Colston will be on the same page this time around, unlike last week when they were merked by the Panthers.

An injury pinched Reggie Bush away from this match and it may seem that the Jeb-ends going to this contest are getting skanked, especially the reekers in the upper deck, but you have to be a nutter to believe that Bush’s absence will mean the locals across the pond won’t be jammy to see this game.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: To prevent the Saints from jacking this contest, Philip Rivers will have to be on his top game. Rivers is a bit of a knob head, gormlessly sodding off chavs in the seats, calling ’em lachcakes, dinlos, ring raiders and fruitbats. If Rivers can stay away from the dolly birds, mandems and of course mancs, and concentrate on being a regular old chap, his performance will be wicked brilliant.

New Orleans’ defense was a bit brown bread last week, as they gave up 30 points and 134 total yards to the Panthers’ offense. I reckon they must be chuffed that LaDainian Tomlinson has been running like a bit of a codger. Tomlinson obviously wants his toe injury to bog off, but I’ll be gobsmacked if he can cut like he did last year.

RECAP: There will be a shed-load of nifties and tenners on San Diego. What’s that got to do with the price of eggs? I reckon it could be a dicey, arse-about-face contest.

To take the biscuit, every Yank, including all the blokes on ESPN, believe New Orleans is finished. Anyone who believes is otherwise is considered mental, having lost the plot. This may sound like flim-flam, but in the states, our football is a bit eppy. Vegas likes to blagger the public. Sounds like a bit of that rubbish has me off that trolley, but believe me, I’m just an ordinary bloke.

AMERICAN RECAP: Phew. That was tough! Took me an hour to get through that.

OK. If you don’t understand British, I like the Saints. Everyone on ESPN, namely Jay Mariotti, Tim Cowlishaw and Michael Wilbon said they were “done.” Done!? Why!? Sure, they were debacled at Carolina, but didn’t Tampa Bay debacle that same Panthers team a week before? People only remember the last thing they see. Everyone has forgotten how New Orleans thrashed Oakland (who just beat the Jets). The Saints dominated the Minnesota game, but lost because of special teams errors. They would have beaten the Broncos if Martin Gramatica didn’t miss a decisive kick. They led the Redskins on the road before relinquishing a huge lead.

The Saints aren’t as bad as people make them out to be. They’re on par with the Chargers, a team that has wins against the 3-3 Jets, 2-4 Raiders (by a lower margin than New Orleans does) and overrated 4-2 New England. Why aren’t the Chargers done too?

I like New Orleans in a buy-low spot. They’ll be out to prove everyone wrong. And fading the public intrigues me as well.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams should be physically and mentally drained from jet lag and the fact that they’re in a different country.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

As expected, the public is fading the Saints, who, according to ESPN, is “done.”

Percentage of money on San Diego: 77% (110,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 27-18 ATS as a dog.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Light rain, 48 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Saints 20, Chargers 17
Saints +3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 46 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Saints 37, Chargers 32

St. Louis Rams (2-4) at New England Patriots (4-2)
Line: Patriots by 8. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Patriots -10.5.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Patriots -11.5.

Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Patriots.
Injuries: Rams: OUT: FB Brian Leonard (IR), WR Keenan Burton, TE Randy McMichael (IR), OT Brandon Gorin (IR), G Mark Setterstrom (IR), CB Justin King (IR), CB Ricky Manning Jr. (IR). Patriots: OUT: QB Tom Brady (IR), RB Laurence Maroney (IR), RB Sammy Morris*, OT Ryan O’Callaghan (IR), OT Oliver Ross, OT Anthony Clement (IR), G Stephen Neal, S Rodney Harrison (IR), S Tank Williams (IR).

In addition to the Video of the Week, which I’ll get to later, here are a huge collection of motivational posters, including a picture of anti-feminism, hot girls and lesbians.

I bring this up because I had an encounter with a bunch of lesbians on Thursday night in what was a very Seinfeld-like situation (in fact, this actually happened on the show, only with gay guys). I’ll save it for Week 9 because I want you to check out those motivational posters.

I thought the Bills-Dolphins line was odd, but this one is much stranger. The Patriots favored by only seven after the debaclement everyone saw on Monday night? Really? (And I say “Really?” like that cute chick in that Bud Light “Anti-Fills You Up” commercial.)

Is Vegas doing something shady here? Perhaps. Let’s delve into the matchups first.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Thirty-four points? No one saw that coming, especially with Orlando Pace out. Steven Jackson was an absolute monster, rushing for 160 yards and three touchdowns on only 25 carries.

Denver was able to run effectively against the Patriots last week. The problem was that Andre Hall fumbled the ball away twice in Patriots territory (groan), and after New England learned that Jay Cutler couldn’t throw the ball with his injured finger (groan), they concentrated on stopping the run (groan), until they were so far ahead (groan), Denver couldn’t keep it on the ground anymore (groan).

Well, unless St. Louis gets “blowed out” early, it’ll be able to pound the rock with Jackson. The Patriots are 26th against the run, and will gradually get worse with Rodney Harrison out for the year.

This will open up the play-action door for Marc Bulger, who will be able to find Torry Holt and the emerging Donnie Avery downfield amid an old, slow and sloppy back eight… unless, of course, Bulger injures his finger on the first play of the game (groan). I do expect New England to sack Bulger a ton, however, so this won’t be a scoring fest for St. Louis or anything.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Poor Denver looked so inept against the run. Sammy Morris blasted through the line of scrimmage repeatedly, forcing the Broncos to sell out against the run. That allowed Matt Cassel to connect with Randy Moss and Wes Welker on shorter routes. Note that Cassel never went deep on Monday night.

The Rams (30th versus the rush) are almost as bad as the Broncos (31st), so New England should be able to utilize the same game plan if it gets an early lead.

However, despite New England’s rushing success, the Broncos still managed six sacks. The Patriots’ offensive line is so banged up, it couldn’t keep an average pass rush out of the backfield. Even with their defensive problems, the Rams can get to the quarterback (14 sacks). Look for them to rattle Cassel – especially if they’re up.

RECAP: You may laugh by that last statement. “If they’re up?” You must think I’ve partied too much with Matt Jones.

No, not this time. In my opinion, the Rams have a decent chance to win this game. They’re playing much better with Jim Haslett, beating both Washington and Dallas, while the Patriots could be unfocused here.

New England just proved all of its doubters wrong (except for me – try winning against a healthy quarterback, a non-fumbling quarterback and no shady official, please) on Monday night, and have to be feeling really good about themselves. After an easy win against the Rams, the Patriots have the Colts and Bills. They’ll be looking ahead.

Perhaps this knowledge is why Vegas made this line only seven. As I mentioned earlier, such a short spread is preposterous. Everyone is betting on New England. Does Vegas want to lose money here? If the Patriots cover, the oddsmakers will look like complete fools, and as we saw last week, that seldom happens.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

The Patriots just had a statement win on national television. Now, they have an “easy win” against the Rams before battling the Colts and Bills back-to-back. I’ll be shocked if they’re the least bit focused.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise that the public is backing the Patriots after they debacled the Broncos on national TV. But why is the line only -7.5? The books will look like complete idiots if New England covers this number.

Percentage of money on New England: 73% (115,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Monday Might: Teams coming off 17+ point wins on MNF are 33-15 ATS the following week.

Rams are 17-33 ATS in road games since 2001.

Rams are 10-22 ATS on grass since 2001.

Patriots are 21-10 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 39-29 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 59 degrees. STRONG WINDS, 23 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Patriots 19, Rams 17
Rams +8 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 43.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Patriots 23, Rams 16

Washington Redskins (5-2) at Detroit Lions (0-6)
Line: Redskins by 7.5. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 7): Redskins -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 7): Redskins -7.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET – Buy Tickets

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Injuries: Redskins: OUT: DE Jason Taylor, DE Phillip Daniels (IR), S Reed Doughty (IR). DOUBTFUL: CB Shawn Springs. Lions: OUT: QB Jon Kitna (IR), CB Stanley Wilson (IR), S Gerald Alexander (IR).

In case you missed it, Boomer Esiason called out Troy Aikman this week for being a homer. (Quick side note: I hate the term “called out.” People throw it around too carelessly. But it applies here.) Esiason claimed Aikman was way too biased in the Cowboys-Cardinals game. Whether he’s right or not, Esiason is out of control. He pisses people off like no other. Remember, a few years ago, he called Peyton Manning “the next Dan Marino” because he couldn’t win in the playoffs right in front of Marino.

For my exclusive interview with Esiason, check out the Bottom 10 of my Week 8 NFL Power Rankings.

So, what’s going to happen with Esiason? He’s a menace and he needs to be stopped. I propose that other former quarterbacks host an intervention for him. How would that go? Mock Conversation time!

Boomer Esiason: “Thanks for taking me out to dinner, Terry Bradshaw. You’re a bald, drunk idiot, but I really appreciate it. Hey, what are these ugly and stupid quarterbacks doing in my living room? What is this, an intervention?”

Troy Aikman: “That’s exactly right, Boomer. We’re here because we’re concerned that you make fun of too many people and consequently have no friends.”

Boomer: “You’re being biased again, loser! Troy, you may have won a Super Bowl or two in your career, but you’re not a winner in my book. You’re biased scum!”

Dan Marino: “I like you, Boomer. I like everyone here. Everyone is my friend. I think everyone has a chance to win the Super Bowl. Everyone should be the MVP.”

Boomer: “See, Dan? This is exactly why you’ve never won a Super Bowl. You have no opinion on anything! Dan Marino sucks!”

Terry Bradshaw: “Ha! Maybe a joke will make you feel better! Knock knock. Who this? Orange. Orange what? Who is this Orange knockin on my trailer door? What on Earth could this be? Well, I will tell you what. It was Orange Jake Del-hommie! Ha! Terry made a funny!”

Boomer: “Dude, that made no sense. None of your jokes make sense. You’re an alcoholic moron and your FOX pregame show is full of idiots just like you! I’m out of here. Adios, losers!”

I’d love to hear Esaison’s analysis on the Lions. Well, maybe not now; two weeks ago would be better because Detroit has actually been much better recently.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Despite having Dan Orlovsky running out of the back of the end zone on every other play, the Lions nearly beat the Vikings and almost came back on the Texans. I really don’t know how they’re doing it because, besides Calvin Johnson, they’re pretty void of talent on offense. Of course it helps when Johnson hauls in 96-yard bombs.

Sure, that was against the Texans and their beat-up secondary, but it’s not like the Redskins are the healthiest group either. Shawn Springs is expected to be out once again. Carlos Rogers, who is having an outstanding year despite coming off an ACL injury, will be asked to stick with Johnson. No one can cover Megatron one-on-one, but Washington can afford to focus on him more, given that Detroit has no other weapons of note.

The Lions’ offensive line can’t pass block (24 sacks), which is part of the reason they get down early and can’t run the ball. Kevin Smith has done well from an average perspective, gaining 4.9 yards per rush. That figure could dip a bit, as Washington is good at debacling down opposing ground attacks.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Poor Lions. They give up five yards per carry, and now will be asked to stop Clinton Portis, the league’s leading rusher by a mile. Good luck with that.

Portis’ expected 150-plus performance will set up tons of easy throws for Jason Campbell, who will easily torch one of the worst defensive backfields in the NFL. Campbell will have all day to throw amid a pedestrian Detroit pass rush.

RECAP: The Redskins are far superior and should cover this number. Then again, they should have covered against the Rams and Browns. Will they do it this time around?

I can’t advise laying -7.5 with a team that hasn’t beaten anyone by more than a touchdown all year. Seriously, check out the margin of the Redskins’ five victories: 5, 7, 2, 6 and 3.

This is a bad spot for Washington, as the team has a date with the Steelers next Monday night. And as mentioned earlier, the Lions have been playing better lately, standing 2-1 against the spread since the Matt Millen firing. I could see them barely covering the number, which would be a nice victory for sportsbooks everywhere.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

Like the Bengals, the Lions will be playing hard to get out of their 0-6 funk. The Redskins, meanwhile, could be in a Look-Ahead Alert, as they have the Steelers next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Tons of action on the Redskins and the line still remains at -7.5.

Percentage of money on Washington: 80% (117,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Zero Heroes: 0-6 teams are 5-4 ATS since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -7.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Lions 14
Lions +7.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 42 (.5 Units) — Push; -$5
Redskins 25, Lions 17

Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games
Bengals at Texans, Browns at Jaguars, Seahawks at 49ers, Giants at Steelers, Colts at Titans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

2009 NFL Mock Draft

2010 NFL Mock Draft

2009 NFL Mock Draft Database

College Football Picks

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
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2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
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2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
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2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
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2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
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2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
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2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
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2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)