NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2013): 9-4-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2013): 5-7-3 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2013): 9-5 (+$1,660)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2013): 10-6 (+$850)

NFL Picks (2013): 104-98-5 (+$2,760)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 9, 6:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

Houston Texans (2-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Jaguars -3.
Thursday, Dec. 5, 8:25 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

WEEK 13 RECAP: My week hinged on Monday night. I won with Seattle, so I was 10-6, +$850. No complaints except that my one big loss, Chiefs +6.5 for three units, was by just a half a point. That game was frustrating to watch, as Kansas City let a 21-7 lead slip away. Blegh.

POISONOUS TEAMS: I’ve vowed to avoid the following poisonous teams that were responsible for many of my two- and three-unit losses:

Rams
Buccaneers
Jaguars
Vikings
Falcons
Browns
Redskins
Texans

Canceling out the Browns and Jaguars, who played each other, these teams went 3-3. We saw the Texans show signs of life for the first time in a month, as they finally put some effort into a game because they wanted revenge against the Patriots. It’s pretty sad that this team can only get motivated once every four weeks. Gary Kubiak needs to be fired for this. The Falcons were also guilty of loafing, particularly in a loss at Tampa Bay, but they at least mustered energy two weeks in a row with their victory (albeit a fluky won) at Toronto.

SUPER SITUATIONS: My Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest partner Matvei and I also talked about some situations that almost always win:

Seahawks at home
Saints at home
Packers at home (needs Aaron Rodgers)
Jim Harbaugh anywhere (unless he’s playing another top team, i.e. Colts or Seahawks)
Tom Brady off a loss as long as he’s not favored by a lot

Those situations have gone 10-2 against the spread since Week 8, with Seattle pending tonight. The 49ers hit on Sunday. I’ll have some hate mail later from a crazed Ram fan who thought his team had a chance against Jim Harbaugh. How very cute.

BERMUDA TRIANGLE: Matvei and I also discussed something called the Bermuda Triangle. This originated with the Cardinals, who inexplicably cover at home against all non-elite teams. Very weird things happen in these games that can’t be explained. Thus, Bermuda Triangle. Here are Bermuda Triangle situations:

Bet the Cardinals at home as a dog or small favorite unless they’re playing an elite team.
Fade the Ravens as a road favorite.
Fade the Steelers as a big home favorite or road favorite.
Fade the Eagles at home.
Fade the Cowboys as a very large home favorite.
Bet the Bills at home

This went 2-0 last week, with the Eagles and Cowboys failing to cover. The Bills technically had a home game, but I won’t count it because they were playing in Toronto, where they are now 1-4 in front of a lifeless crowd. It’s time for Ralph Wilson to stop screwing over his team’s fans.

PSYCHOLOGY: This is something e-mailer Daniel C. brought to my attention. The following chart shows how I am when betting one-plus units compared to my psychology selections. Perhaps I should be leaning on that more:

My psychological picks were 5-1 in Week 12 and 2-0 in Week 13, so that would make this chart look even better.

Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I don’t know why the NFL has suddenly put these divisional matchups so close to each other. But because that’s the case, we can just go back to the Week 12 tilt between these teams to determine what’ll happen. The big take-way from that contest is that the Jaguars were able to shut down Ben Tate, forcing Case Keenum into unfavorable situations. This was no fluke. Believe it or not, aside from the Lions and Jets, Jacksonville has the top run defense in the NFL over the past month in terms of YPC, limiting the opposition to a 2.62 figure.

Keenum, who struggled on third-and-longs against the Jaguars the first time, went 18-of-34 for 169 yards and an interception in that matchup. Jacksonville has been better against the pass as well lately – save for covering Josh Gordon – thanks to Dwayne Gratz reentering the lineup and John Cyprien performing better.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While Keenum struggled in the first meeting between these squads, Chad Henne thrived, going 23-of-32 for 239 yards, though a big chunk of his numbers came early on when he hit Ace Sanders for a gain of 51. Still, Houston’s inability to stop Henne was completely embarrassing.

Of course, Houston hasn’t been able to stop anyone lately, ranking in the 20s in run and pass defense over the past four weeks. Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for more than 4.1 yards per carry for the only time this season against them, for crying out loud. Jones-Drew compiled 84 yards on 14 carries, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be able to match those numbers.

Something the Texans have been especially poor at lately is putting pressure on the quarterback. They’ve mustered just eight sacks in the past four games, giving them just 28 on the season (23rd in the NFL). However, half of that amount came against Henne, so perhaps the Texans can repeat that performance and actually slow down an offense for a change.

RECAP: Who are the Texans to be favored by three over anyone on the road? They suck, and they’ve checked out. They’ll be especially flat here, as they’re coming off a loss in their “Super Bowl.” They tried their best to avenge their playoff loss to the Patriots, but they came up short. Why would they put effort into this contest when they’ve already proven that they’re willing to quit?

I like the Jaguars enough to bet two units. I won’t wager anything more on them, but two units seems fine because they’ve been playing much better lately. And if you’re wondering, the poisonous team factor doesn’t count because Jacksonville is battling another poisonous team.

Again, Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Jaguars, but I’m going to slide this down to one unit. They’re playing better right now, but they’re still a bad team that could easily lose by more than field goal to anyone. By the way, check out my NFL Game Recaps page to see how both Jacksonville and Houston can still make the playoffs.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Texans just lost their Super Bowl, and players like Antonio Smith are blaming Bill Belichick for spying. They’re done mentally. The Jaguars, meanwhile, seem determined to destroy their future.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 52% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Texans are 36-20 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-5 ATS as favorites).

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Jaguars 16, Texans 13
Jaguars +3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 27, Texans 20

Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9)
Line: Chiefs by 3.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Chiefs -1.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

VEGAS RECAP: The public came out on top by just a bit this week – if you exclude the Houston cover over New England, that is. Casual bettors were pounding the Patriots like there was no tomorrow, not realizing that the Texans were playing their Super Bowl. So, if you’re a kid reading this and you’re wondering why you didn’t get everything you asked for this Christmas, it’s because Santa lost 50 units on the Patriots. That’s right, kids. I hate to break it to you, but Santa is a degenerate gambler.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I expected Alex Smith to eventually be the Chiefs’ downfall, so it’s a bit ironic that he was one of the few players who had a great game against the Broncos. Most of his teammates let him down in what could have easily been a Kansas City victory had the team not imploded.

On the offensive side of the ball, Smith’s receivers had countless drops. Smith did a good job of delivering the ball to them – excluding the painful red-zone interception – but they just couldn’t reel in his passes. They’ll have every opportunity to have big gains against the Redskins, who have an atrocious secondary that makes everyone look like a Pro Bowler. Whether the Kansas City wideouts take advantage of these chances is a completely different story, however.

Another player who didn’t screw up against the Broncos was Jamaal Charles, who will need to rip off big gains again to keep Smith off the turf. The one thing the Redskins can do defensively is get to the quarterback, and Smith’s already-shoddy pass protection took a hit when left tackle Branden Albert suffered an injury versus Denver.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Cris Collinsworth did a good job of pointing out Robert Griffin’s flaws Sunday night. Griffin is doing too much running; he should rather scramble out of trouble and look downfield for passing opportunities, which is what Russell Wilson does. Griffin, meanwhile, is all too happy to settle for pick-ups on the ground that aren’t as lucrative.

Battling the Chiefs’ defense wouldn’t have been a good remedy for Griffin’s troubles a few weeks ago, but this unit is reeling right now. It couldn’t rattle Peyton Manning at all. Outside of a few Dontari Poe pressures, Kansas City couldn’t apply any heat on Manning. Justin Houston was out, and while Tamba Hali took the field despite an injury, he was clearly not himself. He was pretty ineffective last week.

The Chiefs also have issues stopping the run (24th in YPC last four weeks, 4.74) and containing the pass, thanks to their underachieving cornerbacks. The Redskins figure to establish the run with Alfred Morris, which will set up short-yardage chances for Griffin.

RECAP: Kansas City has nothing to play for. The team is locked into the No. 5 seed. It’s also coming off a very emotional loss to the Broncos, so it’ll be extremely flat.

The Redskins are the right side, and if they weren’t so incompetent, I’d fade the public and wager heavily on them along with the sharps. However, Washington is so bad that I’ll have to limit this to just one unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp action (not a lot) on the Redskins. The public is pounding Kansas City. As it stands now, Vegas has a HUGE liability on Washington, so there could be some shady, Clete Blakeman-like incidents that occur in this game. Having said all of that, I just can’t stomach betting money on the Redskins. They could be the right side but ultimately screw up at the end and lose the cover, as poisonous teams tend to do.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: There’s heavy snowfall in Washington. I don’t think this affects either team because the Redskins utilize a rushing attack, while the Chiefs throw short passes. Nothing changes for me.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Chiefs brought the kitchen sink against the Broncos. They lost, so they’ll be deflated. This game means nothing to them anyway, as they’re locked into the No. 5 seed.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Who is going to bet on Washington?

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 92% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Andy Reid is 12-19 ATS vs. non-conference opponents as a favorite since 2002.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Wintry mix, 32 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Redskins 26
Redskins +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 45, Redskins 10

Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6)
Line: Ravens by 6. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Ravens -8.5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails (though not so many this week). These are from the comment boards:

I find it hilariously pathetic that Walter makes up some bull**** numbers & stats, & tries to sound analytical. It sounds like someone’s trying to hard to sound smart.

Damn it, you’ve seen right through my ruse. I’m very stupid, so these bull*** numbers and stats make me seem smart to some people. Why didn’t this work on you!?

Walt is about as effective making picks and Michelle Bachman is at repealing Obamacare. Good call on that Dolphins game.

Have faith in Michelle! She’ll get it done, just like I’ll post good picks at some point!

I’ve visited this site consistently for the last month. I’ve everything he has to say. And I am convinced this guy knows nothing about football. He bashes players and teams based solely on if he is a fan or not. How can he say Tavon Austin (a player deemed most explosive in the draft and has even been compared to Barry Sanders) has scored four fluky touchdowns over the span of two games. Maybe me and Webster have different understandings of what fluke means. But last I checked no one scores four flukes on 13 touches. Also how can he support Kaep and ignore the fact that he has in reached 200 passing yards 3 times. His accuracy is scattershot and he can only their bullets. Zero touch when touch is needed. But then not mention Drew Brees tearing it up this year. In fact he said Brees would get “rattled.” I don’t think I have ever seen Brees “rattled”? Walter to me is nothing more than a band wagon rider who is too stubborn to admit when he is wrong so when a team/player turns out to be better than initially thought or worse than he tries to stick With his guns. I would like know what makes him the football guru. Has he ever even played? Has he ever even coached? What’s his background? Because I believe he is merely a sports FAN who was lucky enough to get a site to voice his opinion. I will not be returning to this site ever again And will advise against it to everyone I encounter. This is a joke. PS Yes I have a strong football background. I played and 3 of 4 years in college. Went undrafted but still signed undrafted. Played for two seasons suiting up for 7 games. After a torn ACL played my next 3 yrs of football in Europe. I think I am a little qualified to say this guy does not view games with a coaches eye.

So many ways to make fun of this guy. Do I…

1. Ask him why he’s visited the site consistently if he believes that I know nothing about football?

2. Try to figure out what sort of imbecile compared Tavon Austin to Barry Sanders?

3. Look up the site where this guy determined that “no one scores four flukes on 13 touches?”

4. Point out that he’s guilty of ad hominem fallacy by questioning my credibility because I never played college or professional football?

5. Commit some ad hominem fallacy of my own by stating that he can’t possibly know what ad hominem fallacy is because he’s a “stupid football player?”

6. Question his “strong football background.” Yes, I’m sure this guy played in seven games. Very believable. And with this “strong football background,” he believes Tavon Austin is the next Barry Sanders?

One other commenter said it best: “Maybe you don’t know much about football either because you went undrafted.” Burn.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens have been pretty sluggish on this side of the ball the entire season, but they could get a nice boost soon. Dennis Pitta, coming off a hip injury, is due to come off short-term injured reserve at the end of the week. Pitta isn’t an unbelievable talent or anything, but he’s Joe Flacco’s favorite intermediate weapon. Flacco will welcome him back with open arms, as he has really missed having a possession target with Pitta out and Anquan Boldin in San Francisco.

Pitta is just another element the inept Minnesota pass defense will have to worry about. The Vikings haven’t been able to cover anyone this year, thanks to numerous injuries in the secondary; they’re 26th in YPA over the past four weeks (8.21). Alshon Jeffery just broke Chicago’s single-game receiving record against them, so Torrey Smith could be in for a huge outing.

The Vikings are barely better versus the run over the same span (25th, 4.80 YPC), so this could be a rare game that Ray Rice actually gets going on the ground. Rice recently ran all over the Bears’ last-ranked ground defense, so there’s a chance he could be more effective than usual.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Matt Cassel stepped in for a completely incompetent Christian Ponder and performed well last week. Cassel hasn’t been named the starter yet as of this writing, but he’s fully expected to get the nod. He deserves it; he led the team to a comeback victory in overtime, and he’s the only quarterback on the roster thus far who has been able to connect consistently with Greg Jennings.

However, those expecting Cassel to play brilliantly again will be disappointed. There’s a major difference between going up against the Bears and the Ravens. Chicago can’t stop anyone, while Baltimore has one of the top defenses in the NFL. The Ravens are seventh in YPA over the past four weeks (5.91 YPA) and happen to own the second-most sacks in the NFL this year. They’ll swarm the backfield, making sure Cassel can’t hit Jennings as often as he did versus Chicago.

Besides, it’s not like Cassel will be able to feed off a strong rushing attack again. Adrian Peterson rushed for a season-high 211 yards last week, but that was against the Bears’ last-ranked ground defense. The Ravens are much better against the run, especially with Haloti Ngata back in the lineup. Peterson has had lines of 21-65 and 20-75 this year, so contrary to popular belief, it is possible to slow him down. Not many teams can do that, but Baltimore is certainly capable.

RECAP: I don’t like the spot the Ravens are in. They have several tough matchups coming up. They also sputter too much in the red zone to cover a large spread like this. Worst of all, they’re coming off an emotional victory versus Pittsburgh. The Ravens are 2-3 against the spread following wins over the Steelers in the Flacco era, but one of those victories was that ridiculous triumph over the Chargers in the Ray Rice fourth-and-29 game (still bitter about that loss and that spot by the incompetent official). So, in reality, the Ravens are really 1-4 ATS after beating the Steelers.

Having said that, the Vikings are in a worse spot. They are also celebrating a huge win, and they’ve had less rest to do so (especially coming off consecutive overtime games). Baltimore, meanwhile, has enjoyed an extended break, which good teams can take advantage of. Also, the Vikings are horrendous when playing outdoors (see trends below).

I’m taking the Ravens to cover, but I’m not betting any units on this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are picking the Vikings in this game. It’s a strange decision; not only are the Ravens the superior team and very strong at home, but the Vikings, a dome team, could be shell shocked in the snow. I’m not changing my selection.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: Once again, the sharps are all over Minnesota. I still don’t quite get it, but I don’t love the Ravens either. So, if you’re into following the sharps, take the Vikings.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Ravens are coming off an emotional win against the Steelers. The Vikings, however, had a similar victory over a divisional rival.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

A good amount of action on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 83% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Vikings are 10-22 ATS outdoors since 2008.

Ravens are 19-7 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco. ???

Opening Line: Ravens -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Snow, 33 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Ravens 29, Vikings 19
Ravens -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 29, Vikings 26

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)
Line: Patriots by 9.5. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Patriots -15.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. I’ve posted all of the messages he’s sent me over the years, including those in 2012. I heard from him back in September – click here for some of the newer Real John Moss content – but I haven’t heard from him since. Hopefully this post will convince him to contact me again – if that’s possible. As you may remember, he was being exiled from America for fixing a women’s field hockey game.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Is there really no line on this game because of the quarterbacking situation? Does it really matter who starts between Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden and Alex Tanney? All of these guys stink. Campbell is the least incompetent out of the bunch, but he has struggled ever since beating Baltimore somehow. I’m still not sure how that happened.

The Browns were able to muster a decent amount of offense last week, thanks to Josh Gordon’s record-breaking, second-consecutive 200-yard receiving performance. You can almost be certain that he won’t have a third though. Bill Belichick is the master of eliminating one portion of the opposing offense. He prevented Jimmy Graham from catching a single pass earlier in the season, after all. He has Aqib Talib to guard Gordon. Jordan Cameron is capable of having a big game to pick up the slack, but he has struggled with drops lately.

The Patriots can be beaten on the ground, thanks to the absence of Vince Wilfork. Over the past four weeks, only five teams have a worse YPC than New England’s 5.14. However, Cleveland simply doesn’t have the rushing attack to exploit this weakness. What’s Willis McGahee going to do, rush for 100 yards? It’s not going to happen.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Like the Patriots, Cleveland has the ability to eliminate one aspect of an opposing offense – as long as this aspect happens to be a receiver, that is. Joe Haden is one of the top cornerbacks in the game. He has shown the ability to erase even A.J. Green. However, whom is he going to cover in this game? Danny Amendola? Julian Edelman? Kenbrell Thompkins? Tom Brady spreads the ball around so well that it doesn’t even matter. Thus, Haden isn’t nearly as big of a factor when battling a team like the Patriots.

Besides, Cleveland’s defense is struggling as a whole. Its pass rush used to be among the league leaders in sacks, but it has fallen off; the Browns have gotten to the quarterback just twice since their Week 10 bye. I’m not sure what has happened, but all of the pass-rushers have played worse – Paul Kruger especially. This is key for the Patriots, who have some holes on their offensive line that can be exploited.

It seems like the red-hot Tom Brady should be able to continue to torch the opposition. He’ll need to do so against the Browns because he won’t get much help from his running game. Even if the backs manage to hold on to the football, they won’t have much luck finding lanes this Sunday. Cleveland, despite its recent defensive struggles, is still pretty stout against the run.

RECAP: There’s no line on this game, so check back later. I’ll probably pick the Patriots to cover, but I’m not sure for how many units yet. Stay tuned.

LINE POSTED: The Patriots opened at -10.5, but the sharps have bet it down to -10. However, I think they’re just taking Cleveland on principle, as they usually take double-digit underdogs no matter what. I don’t have a strong opinion on this, but I have a feeling they’re wrong; the Browns have been a mess recently, as Jason Campbell has regressed to what we all thought he’d be.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: Chad Millman said what I wrote last night. The sharps love the Browns, and they will be fading the Patriots because of a “halo effect” following that victory over the Broncos. Millman also reasoned that the sharps are taking the best defense, but I’m not sure I agree with that. Desmond Bryant, a beast on the defensive line, is out, while some of the pass-rushers are struggling, as discussed.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Patriots have to deal with the rival Dolphins and Ravens (revenge game) in the next two weeks.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Lots of money on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 85% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Browns are 17-11 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.

Tom Brady is 156-52 as a starter (119-84 ATS).

Tom Brady is 20-27 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (10-20 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -10.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 31 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Browns 17
Patriots -9.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 27, Browns 26

Oakland Raiders (5-7) at New York Jets (5-7)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Jets -2.5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register! (By the way, the link does not work at the moment, but it will sometime tonight).

By the way, you can check out the Pick Em Leaderboard here.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Could we be watching the worst starting quarterback in NFL history? Geno Smith is an abomination. He hasn’t completed more than nine passes in any of his previous four games. In that span, he has gone a combined 29-of-74 (39.2%) for 374 yards (5.1 YPA), no passing touchdowns and six interceptions. Granted, he doesn’t have much to work with, but he’s missing open receivers on throws that average backups can make. It’s pretty embarrassing.

The one defense for Smith, aside from his supporting cast, is that he has battled teams with solid secondaries ranked in or near the top 10 in terms of YPA recently. Perhaps an easier opponent will help Smith get back on track. If so, he could rebound against the Raiders, who are 23rd versus aerial attacks (7.61 YPA).

Then again, Smith could easily struggle yet again because he won’t have his running backs ripping off big gains. Oakland surprisingly has the No. 10 ground defense in the NFL in terms of YPC (3.89). DeMarco Murray scored thrice against them on Thanksgiving, but he managed just 63 yards on 17 carries. Chris Ivory doesn’t have Murray’s talent, so he figures to be pretty limited.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Matt McGloin will be the starter once again. McGloin hasn’t been great, but he has performed pretty admirably for an undrafted rookie. It’s actually quite amazing that he has been more competent than the Jets’ second-round signal-caller.

The matchup looks good for McGloin on paper. The Jets haven’t been able to defend any receivers this year because of their poor corners and worse safeties, and McGloin has proven that he can get the ball to Rod Streater and the emerging Andre Holmes. McGloin also doesn’t figure to be pressured very much, as he has taken zero sacks in his previous two starts.

Having said that, things may not go according to plan in this contest. For the first time, McGloin won’t have a strong rushing attack to give him manageable third-down situations. Rashad Jennings has run surprisingly well in relief of the disappointing Darren McFadden, but he suffered a concussion on Thanksgiving. Even if he’s cleared, he has a tough matchup versus the Jets, who have the NFL’s No. 1 ground defense in terms of YPC (2.87).

RECAP: This game is unbettable for me. On one hand, the Raiders are playing on the East Coast in an early start time. On the other hand, the Jets are way too offensively incompetent to lay points with. Gun to my head, I’m going to fade the public (pounding Oakland) and take New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Jets, believe it or not. I think they’re the right side as well, but I can’t stomach betting on them as a favorite again.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are continuing to pound the Jets. If you want to lay a field goal with Geno Smith, good luck.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The Jets are toxic right now. No one wants to bet on them.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 72% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 17-3 ATS at home following a home loss in the last 20 instances.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Possible snow, 34 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Jets 16, Raiders 12
Jets -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 37, Raiders 27

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)
Line: Bengals by 6.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Bengals -5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’m going to be talking about stupid things in this segment. To start, I’m ashamed that I neglected to address the Donte Hitner name change. It’s so dumb. I don’t understand how idiot players like Donte Whitner, Brandon Meriweather, Dashon Goldson, etc. don’t get that these new rules are to protect the NFL’s longevity. There has been a 10-percent reduction in kids playing football. This seems like nothing, but the pool will continue to decrease until the NFL eliminates concussions. Whitner changing his name to promote hitting is just so stupid.

And what a dumb name anyway. Donte Hitner? As Matvei commented, “What’s he going to do next, change his first name to Adonf?” Adonf Hitner has a nice ring to it, actually, if, you know, you’re an a**hole who’s into genocide and stuff.

Speaking of Adonf Hitner, he was featured in this week’s Emmitt on the Brink.

2. Whitner isn’t the only player making a stupid name change. Michael Irvin revealed that Mike Wallace has decided that he wants to be referred to as “Ocean 11.”

Umm… what? I get that Wallace wears a No. 11 jersey, and I know of the movie, but how does that name fit? Why is he “Ocean?” Because he plays by the ocean? Well, I’m living on land that used to be a golf course, and I was born in 1982, so perhaps I should dub myself Golf Course 82. Everyone, please call me Golf Course 82 from now on!!!

3. NFL GameDay Final is good for some laughs. And not in a good way. While the white host screams as loudly as possible, Irvin gives us breaking news on nicknames. Deion Sanders, meanwhile, appears as though he has no idea what’s going on half the time. Here’s what he said of the Giants recently:

“The Giants need to go 5 and 6 to win the division from here on out.”

Really? A 5-6 record to close out the season will earn New York a playoff spot? Thanks for the insightful analysis. But hey, according to that one “Tavon Austin is the next Barry Sanders” hate-mailer, Deion played in the NFL for a long time, so he really knows what he’s talking about.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck hasn’t played well at all lately. Since that crazy comeback at Houston, which doesn’t look nearly as impressive now that the Texans lost consecutive home games against the Raiders and Jaguars, Luck has scored three touchdowns and committed six turnovers. In his past three games, he hasn’t maintained a YPA greater than 6.4.

Luck has taken some flak for struggling, but considering what he has to work with, he shouldn’t be blamed too much. Luck’s starting receivers are T.Y. Hilton and Darrius Heyward-Bey, while his offensive line can’t protect him whatsoever. Luck is constantly running for his life, so you have to wonder where the Colts would be if he weren’t so athletic. There is a downside to this though, which is that Luck has taken some crushing hits downfield.

The Bengals certainly won’t make life any easier for him. Despite Geno Atkins’ absence, they are still getting tons of pressure on the quarterback, accumulating 18 sacks in their previous five games. They’re also No. 3 in pass defense (6.06 YPA) and ninth versus ground attacks (3.86 YPC). With Donald Brown having no running room and his receivers being unable to get open, you have to wonder how Luck will sustain consistent drives in this contest.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: On the other end of the spectrum, the Colts are near the bottom of every defensive category. They’ve permitted offenses quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kellen Clemens and Carson Palmer to look unstoppable against them. Andy Dalton isn’t playing his best football right now, but if Fitzpatrick and Clemens can generate consistent drives against Indianapolis’ putrid stop unit, Dalton should be able to as well.

The worst aspect of the Indianapolis’ defense is its inability to stop aerial attacks. Only three teams (Redskins, Packers, Falcons) have surrendered a worse YPA than the Colts over the past month, which is really saying something considering the quarterbacks they’ve played recently. The secondary is awful, but it doesn’t help that their pass rush has accumulated only seven sacks in the past five weeks. Dalton will have all afternoon to pick apart Indianapolis’ secondary.

The Colts also happen to be pretty weak versus the run. Since their Week 8 bye, opposing offenses have averaged 113.8 rushing yards against them, with no team accumulating fewer than 98 yards on the ground. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard ran all over the Chargers, so I don’t see why they couldn’t do that to Indianapolis.

RECAP: I like the Bengals for a couple of units here. They’ve been awesome at home this year, owning 5-0 straight-up and against-the-spread records, winning by an average of 16.4 points. The Colts, meanwhile, are in a terrible funk. They can’t get anything going offensively, and things will just get worse against one of the NFL’s top defenses.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps aren’t leaning either way in this game. I still like the Bengals for two units. The weather helps. It’s going to be too nasty for an aerially based Indianapolis dome team.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: This is the first time Andrew Luck will be playing in snow. That only strengthens my opinion on Cincinnati.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is the battle for the No. 3 seed, though that doesn’t mean very much.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 62% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Bengals are 16-31 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 8-16 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Opening Line: Bengals -5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Wintry mix, 32 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Bengals 30, Colts 20
Bengals -6.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 42, Colts 28

Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)
Line: Eagles by 2. Total: 54.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Eagles -1.5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. It’s unbelievable how college football can be so great and so stupid at the same time. The Alabama-Auburn finish was insane. I couldn’t believe what was happening as I was watching it, and I’m sure you all feel the same way. In fact, I don’t think any of us will forget where we were when we saw Chris Davis return the missed field goal for a touchdown.

Having said that, as unreal as that play was, I don’t think it should mean that Auburn deserves a spot in the national championship over Alabama. If the Tide doesn’t miss that field goal, or have another kick blocked, or even battle Auburn on the road rather than at home or on a neutral field, it wins, and we’re not even having this conversation. How can one crazy play – arguably the greatest play in college football history, rivaling the Stanford Band – determine the national championship?

Because college football doesn’t yet have a playoff, the voters have an obligation to make sure the two best teams get to battle each other in title game. If they thought Alabama was No. 1 prior to playing Auburn, they should still think they’re first – or perhaps second behind highly impressive Florida State – because this was a fluky road loss. One insane play that almost never happens shouldn’t drop a team down three spots in the polls.

Unfortunately, the people who vote in the polls aren’t very bright. We’re going to have a Florida State-Ohio State battle even though the Buckeyes aren’t that good (more on that later). If I were to vote, I’d go like this:

1. Florida State
2. Alabama
3. Auburn
4. Missouri
5. Ohio State (reluctantly)

Florida State and Alabama would provide us all with the best matchup in the championship because they’re the two best teams. Just because Ohio State is undefeated doesn’t mean they’re better than these three SEC squads. The Buckeyes remind me of the Kansas City Chiefs. Even when the Chiefs were undefeated, I didn’t slot them above No. 7 in my NFL Power Rankings because they simply weren’t as good as their record said they were. They had trouble beating inferior opponents, which can also be said for the Buckeyes, who couldn’t cover the spread against Illinois and Indiana before nearly falling to crappy Michigan.

Does a team that allowed 600-plus yards to the mediocre Wolverines belong in the national championship? Of course not. Unfortunately, not ranking the Buckeyes in the top three would require logic – something most of the voters do not have because they base their poll solely on records, which is a fallacy.

Seriously, why do records matter when these teams don’t play the same schedule? If Ohio State had battled Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M, it wouldn’t be undefeated right now. Conversely, if Alabama traversed the crappy Big Ten, it would have an unblemished record. These idiots who vote in the polls are such simple-minded homoclites that it’s depressing that they determine which teams play in this so-called national championship.

2. Speaking of Ohio State’s victory over Michigan, Wolverines’ head coach Brady Hoke proved himself to be incompetent when he opted to go for two, down 42-41, with 32 seconds remaining. I have nothing against trying a two-point conversion at the end of the game against a superior foe to ensure victory, but there was just one problem: This wasn’t the end of the game. There was still 32 seconds left, so a successful Michigan conversion wouldn’t have meant a win. Ohio State could’ve easily driven into field-goal range and blasted a kick through the uprights to win the game.

If there were three seconds left, I wouldn’t have criticized Hoke. But he blew it. Unfortunately for Michigan fans, Hoke will be around for at least another year. As a Penn State alumnus, I’m not complaining one bit. Dumb coaches are always welcome in the Big Ten (thanks to you too, Nebraska) as long as they don’t have anything to do with the Nittany Lions.

3. I wouldn’t have ranted about any of this, by the way, if there were a playoff. I know one is coming next year, but why can’t we have one now? That way, we could have Florida State, Ohio State, Alabama and the winner of Auburn-Missouri in a four-game tournament.

Seriously, why can’t a playoff be installed this year? The rules say this will begin after the 2014 season, but f*** the rules. The NCAA can do whatever it pleases. Like really, who the hell would complain about this?

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: This Nick Foles phenomenon is unreal. His arm strength can still be questioned, but 19 passing touchdowns to zero interceptions is unbelievable. He also has two scores on the ground, further enhancing his insane numbers. And it’s not like he’s checking the ball down in Alex Smith fashion either; he’s taking shots downfield, as his 9.1 YPA indicates.

Foles passed a crucial test last week against an Arizona defense ranked near the top 10 in most categories, but he’ll have another one this week with the Lions and their ferocious defensive front. Ndamukong Suh and company have accumulated a whopping 11 sacks in the previous two weeks, so they’ll make life difficult for Foles, as Philadelphia’s offensive line has struggled with protections recently. The Cardinals managed to bring down Foles on five occasions this past Sunday.

The Lions get to the quarterback very effectively, but their defensive line is even better at stopping rushing attacks. Detroit has surrendered just 1.81 yards per carry to its previous four opponents. That’s an absurd number to begin with, but it gets even better considering the running backs they’ve stymied. The list includes Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte and Le’Veon Bell.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Eagles spent a ton of money installing a new, fast turf recently. This is obviously a good move for them, considering the type of offense they run. However, it’s bound to benefit some opponents – including Detroit.

For those who didn’t see the recent Detroit-Pittsburgh tilt, Reggie Bush struggled immensely. Not only did he lose a fumble; he kept slipping on the Lions’ sloppy field. He was so bad that he was actually benched in favor of Joique Bell. Bush plays so much better at home on the fast turf at Ford Field, but he should have similar success in Philadelphia. The Eagles’ pedestrian linebacking corps got away with not having to tackle a slippery back last week in Andre Ellington, who was out, but it won’t have similar fortune with Bush coming to town.

Meanwhile, there’s no one in the Eagles’ secondary who can come close to slowing down Calvin Johnson. Philadelphia’s only hope is to pressure Matthew Stafford, but that will prove to be difficult. Even though the Eagles’ defensive front has improved lately, Stafford is well protected. Only Peyton Manning has taken fewer sacks this year.

RECAP: Detroit is the better team, and would probably win on a neutral field (in a dome), but I like Philadelphia in this situation. I discussed it below in the psychology section: This game means very little for the Lions. They’ve essentially locked up the NFC North, and they can’t get up to a No. 2 seed without something crazy happening. Also, consider that it’ll be 30 degrees and snowy in Philadelphia come Sunday. Detroit, being a dome team, will have no interest in playing in frigid conditions.

My only worry with this selection is that the Eagles have a very dubious home record. However, that could be negated by Detroit’s tendency to not play very well in outdoor games.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another situation in which a dome team has to play in the cold, though it won’t be as bad as it is in Cincinnati. I still like the Eagles for two units, as Detroit doesn’t have much to play for.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: I live right outside of Philly, and there’s a light snowfall coming down. It’ll get worse. Again, the dome-based Lions could have issues throwing the ball in the second half. (Update: The snow is falling heavily now. It’s only going to get worse). Also, it’s worth noting that Chad Millman said the sharps are on Detroit. I’m seeing some sharps on the Eagles too, so they’re split. Sharp play doesn’t quite make sense here; the Lions will be playing in the snow with a banged-up cornerback group and nothing to gain from this victory.

INJURY UPDATE: Reggie Bush aggravated his calf injury in pre-game warmups. This spread hasn’t changed, but the total has fallen three points. The snow, by the way, continues to fall hard.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

The Lions are essentially locked into the No. 3 or 4 seed. They’ve effectively won their division.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 54% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Eagles are 7-24 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.

Opening Total: 54.5.

Weather: Chance of snow, 34 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Lions 20
Eagles -2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 54 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Eagles 34, Lions 20

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Steelers -4.5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

A man named Mark Pepe e-mailed me. I eventually convinced him to call someone in the Eagles’ organization to ask for Riley Cooper. I also did the same thing to another spammer by pretending to be Aaron Hernandez. Check out the Spam Mails page to see it.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers’ offensive line was just rounding into form, so it’s only natural that this unit suffered a terrible setback. Center Fernando Velasco, who was doing a good job of replacing Maurkice Pouncey, is out for the year after injuring his Achilles in the fourth quarter of the Thanksgiving game. Someone named Cody Wallace will have to step in for him now. Meanwhile, guard David DeCastro is considered questionable with a foot. Even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent. This means Miami will have tons of success pressuring Ben Roethlisberger up the middle. And then, of course, there’s Cameron Wake…

Only seven teams have accumulated more sacks than the Dolphins this year, so Roethlisberger will definitely be under heavy pressure. Making matters even worse, his top receiver, Antonio Brown, will have to deal with Brent Grimes’ outstanding coverage. Brown was able to have success against Joe Haden recently, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll thrive versus Grimes.

Roethlisberger has been able to lean on Le’Veon Bell as a solid runner and a decent receiver coming out of the backfield, but there’s a chance Bell may not be able to suit up. Bell sustained a nasty concussion last Thursday when he collided with Baltimore corner Jimmy Smith. Bell has had plenty of time to get cleared, but the one issue is that he suffered memory loss from the hit. Thus, it’s no lock that he’ll be cleared. If he does suit up, it’ll obviously be a big boost for Pittsburgh, as the Dolphins aren’t particularly strong versus the rush.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Mike Wallace makes his return to Pittsburgh, and just at the right time too – the speedy receiver had major problems connecting with Ryan Tannehill earlier in the year, but they’ve developed a stronger rapport recently. Wallace has caught 12 passes for 209 yards and a couple of touchdowns in his previous two contests. He’ll get Ike Taylor this week, which is good news for Wallace because Taylor can’t cover anyone anymore.

Having Wallace go off should help Ryan Tannehill avoid pressure. Tannehill has still taken more sacks than any quarterback in the NFL this year, but it’s promising that the Jets managed to bring him down only once. Tannehill figures to have a pretty clean pocket again, given that only two teams (Falcons, Jaguars) have accumulated fewer sacks than the Steelers this season. Pittsburgh couldn’t even bring down Joe Flacco behind Baltimore’s putrid offensive line last week.

Tannehill will also be helped by a rushing attack that should be able to have some success in this contest. Pittsburgh, currently 15th against the run in terms of YPC (3.99), will be missing two starters on the defensive line (Steve McLendon, Brett Keisel). With Daniel Thomas also out, Miami will be forced to use its more-talented running back in Lamar Miller.

RECAP: I like that the Steelers are coming off a Thursday game. They’ve had lots of time to prepare for Miami. However, there are two hang-ups that are preventing me from betting any units on them. First, the loss to the Ravens could have some negative lingering effects. And second, the team could be distracted by this Mike Tomlin sideline controversy. I’m still picking Pittsburgh to cover, but no units will be involved.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve had some people in the comment section why I’m picking the Steelers after making it sound like the Dolphins were the right side. Pittsburgh is the play because I feel like the greatest factor is the rest advantage; the team has had extra time to prepare for Miami. Weather is also huge, as the DOlphins will have to win in the snow. Having said that, I feel like this is a three-point game that will push. The sharps don’t favor either side.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: Chad Millman said the sharps are favoring the Dolphins, but again, I know of split sharp action. I don’t have much of an opinion on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

A good amount of action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 65% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Underdog is 48-21 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 69 games.

Steelers are 27-12 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 4-7 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite following a road win.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Snow, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Dolphins 20
Steelers -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 34, Steeelers 28

Buffalo Bills (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9)
Line: Buccaneers by 2.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Buccaneers -3.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bills.

Video of the Week: If you’re a football fan, chances are you do not like Taylor Swift. She’s annoying, and all of her songs sound the same. Fortunately, someone on YouTube discovered a way to improve Taylor Swift’s singing skills. You know, after listening to that, I am starting to develop a fondness for Miss Swift.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Mike Glennon had played very well in the four weeks leading up to the Carolina game, but he completely crapped the bed against the Panthers, going 14-of-21 for 180 yards, an interception and a lost fumble. Carolina’s dominant defense clearly rattled him, registering five sacks, which forced Glennon into making a number of poor throws.

The Bills actually have a stronger pass rush than the Panthers, at least statistically. Owners of the most sacks in the NFL (42), they’ve notched 14 sacks in their previous three games, including six versus the Falcons. Buffalo also happens to own a strong secondary that is performing much better now that all of the defensive backs are healthy. Over the past month, only four teams have surrendered a better YPA than Buffalo.

The one thing Buffalo doesn’t do well on this side of the ball is stop the run, ranking 23rd against it in terms of YPC (4.24). Bobby Rainey has proven that he can have big games versus bad defenses when he rumbled for 163 yards and two touchdowns on 30 carries against the Falcons. Rainey couldn’t run well against the Panthers, but perhaps his ability to churn out big chunks of yardage will help keep Glennon upright.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: As with most young quarterbacks, E.J. Manuel isn’t nearly as effective if he has to play on the road. Check out his home-away splits this season:

The sack difference is staggering, especially since he has played five home games compared to three road contests. Perhaps he’ll have a reprieve from all of this pressure on Sunday; excluding the Giants, Steelers, Falcons and Jaguars, no team has compiled fewer sacks this year than the Buccaneers.

Tampa will make up for its lacking pass rush with Darrelle Revis shutting down Stevie Johnson. However, the mediocre run defense will have some issues with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. The former was especially explosive on Sunday, looking healthy for the first time in a long while.

RECAP: The Buccaneers are in a bad spot, coming off a tough loss to one of their biggest rivals. The Bills seem like the right side, but I can’t bet heavily on them outside of Buffalo. They’re 1-4 straight up and against the spread on the road, though their one victory did come in the state of Florida, as they beat the Dolphins back in Week 7.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I took one unit off the Redskins, so I’ll place it here on Buffalo. The sharps are all over the Bills, and I like them as well. The Buccaneers will be flat following their loss to Carolina.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: All of the sharps are on the Bills. It’s interesting that this spread is -2.5 because the public sees Tampa as the better team, so you’d think this line would be -3.5 or so.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Buccaneers could be deflated following the loss to Carolina. Buffalo’s playoff hopes have been crushed, so there’s that too.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Despite their recent loss, the Buccaneers are still getting money from the public.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 65% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 25-19 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Buccaneers are 10-25 ATS at home in the previous 35 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 14 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Buccaneers 17
Bills +2.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 27, Bills 6

Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1)
Line: Packers by 3.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Rodgers).
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 13): Packers -2.5.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: TBA.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: There’s no official word on Aaron Rodgers yet. The latest bit of news I have for you as of this writing is that he took snaps from his backup center during Wednesday’s practice. He also threw a bit, but he did all of this last week. It seems as though the Packers are preparing Matt Flynn to play, though Rodgers can’t be counted out until Mike McCarthy tells the media that his Pro Bowl quarterback will be sidelined again.

I’m going to assume Flynn will be the starter for the purposes of this write-up. Flynn was solid in relief of Scott Tolzien against the Vikings, but Detroit’s defense proved to be a much tougher challenge. Flynn went 10-of-20 for 139 yards and an interception, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He had another pick dropped and lost two fumbles. He also took a safety in the third quarter.

Luckily for Flynn, the Falcons won’t offer nearly as much resistance. Their defense is in shambles, as only two teams (Packers, Redskins) have surrendered a worse YPA than Atlanta’s 8.82 over the past month. The Falcons also can’t apply any pressure on the quarterback (one sack during the previous two weeks), and they can’t stop the run either. C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson ran all over them in Canada, so Eddie Lacy should be able to pick up where they left off.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons are terrible on the defensive side of the ball, but at least their offense has been pretty decent lately. Roddy White rounding back into form has been huge, as Ryan now has a dangerous receiver to throw to again. The Packers, as mentioned, are even worse against the pass than Atlanta is, as their secondary frequently blows coverages. The timing is poor for Green Bay; Atlanta’s aerial attack has finally gotten back into a groove.

The Falcons have been able to run the ball better lately as well. Steven Jackson still looks a bit slow, but he’s definitely way more effective than he was when he came off his injury. Only three teams (Falcons, Cowboys, Bears) have given up a worse YPC than Green Bay has in the past month.

Believe it or not, the Packers actually do something well defensively. They have the fourth-most sacks in the NFL with 14, and they’re just two weeks removed from bringing down Christian Ponder six times. Ryan has taken 11 sacks in the past couple of games, so Green Bay’s pass rush should be able to force the occasional punt.

RECAP: There’s no spread on this game. I’m tentatively taking Atlanta, but check back later for a more definitive pick.

By the way, I’m well aware that I haven’t posted any big-unit plays yet. Don’t worry. They’re coming.

LINE POSTED: I’m taking the Falcons. Matt Flynn shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal under any circumstances. Atlanta has struggled for most of the year, but it’s been playing better lately. I would bet two units on the road underdog, but weather.com is calling for 23 degrees and snow at Lambeau. Those aren’t ideal conditions for an aerially based southern team that plays its home games in a dome.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: Matt Ryan played in Boston College, so maybe he’ll be OK. I’m not sure about his teammates though. One person posted on my Facebook wall, “I don’t like your Falcons pick, Walt. The weather will be bad.” My response: “Matt Flynn will be bad too.”

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 59% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 22-11 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Packers are 22-9 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Packers -5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Snow, 23 degrees. Light wind.

Week 14 NFL Pick: Falcons 24, Packers 23
Falcons +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 22, Falcons 21

Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games
Tennessee�at�Denver, NY Giants�at�San Diego, Seattle�at�San Francisco, St. Louis�at�Arizona, Carolina�at�New Orleans, Dallas�at�Chicago

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 14 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)