NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2013



NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2013): 9-4-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2013): 5-7-3 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2013): 9-5 (+$1,660)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2013): 10-6 (+$850)

NFL Picks (2013): 104-98-5 (+$2,760)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 9, 6:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 14 NFL Picks - Early Games





Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2)
Line: Broncos by 13.5. Total: 50.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -11.5.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 13): Broncos -10.
Sunday, Dec. 8, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I'll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I'm being insensitive.

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DENVER OFFENSE: It's late in the season, so checking the weather is a must, especially for the Broncos. Weather.com says it's going to be 15 degrees and snowy come Sunday. This obviously doesn't bode well for Peyton Manning, who has a terrible record in frigid conditions. His arm strength isn't what it used to be, so his passes flutter when the conditions are unfavorable. We all saw this when he struggled at New England. He was able to rebound in Kansas City because the temperature was in the 40s. That won't be the case in this contest.

Manning actually had a great performance against the Chiefs because he was able to expose their poor cornerback group. However, he won't have that sort of edge in this matchup because the Titans actually have a pair of strong corners. They also have a solid pass rush that sacked Andrew Luck five times. Manning doesn't take sacks because he releases the ball so quickly, but Tennessee's front four will have an impact if they knock him around a bit.

The Broncos will try to keep the ball on the ground more than usual. In fact, it's been noted that they've been preparing for these freezing conditions by feeding the rock to Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball as much as possible. The Titans will offer some resistance against the rush because they have the seventh-best unit in terms of YPC over the past month (3.53), but they won't be able to completely focus on Moreno and Ball because they'll have to worry about Manning and all of his weapons - despite whatever the temperature happens to be.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Titans have been better against the rush lately, the Broncos haven't been able to contain ground attacks very well. Thanks to some injuries, they've surrendered an average of 109.4 rushing yards to their previous five opponents, and none of those foes gained fewer than 92 yards. This obviously bodes well for the Titans, who will be able to establish Chris Johnson and keep Ryan Fitzpatrick out of long-yardage situations.

With that in mind, keeping Fitzpatrick upright should be possible. Denver's pass rush had improved immensely since the team got Von Miller back, but it accumulated no sacks on Alex Smith this past Sunday despite Branden Albert leaving the game with an injury. The Broncos are banged up on the defensive line, so that obviously had a huge impact. Meanwhile, the Titans have surrendered just six sacks in the previous four weeks, so Fitzpatrick should have time to find his receivers.

Fitzpatrick's targets should have success getting open. The Broncos have a banged-up secondary that couldn't even contain Smith last week. In fact, had the Chiefs not dropped catchable passes, they probably would have beaten Denver. Fitzpatrick has a better arsenal at his disposal than Smith does.

RECAP: There are a couple of reasons to like the Titans. I already mentioned the weather. The Broncos have this weird game sandwiched between two divisional matchups, and are favored by a ton of points, which doesn't usually translate to covers for Manning (see trends below). More specifically, Denver has a Thursday night game coming up, so it won't be completely focused on beating Tennessee. Also, the public is pounding the Broncos, while the sharps are siding with the Titans.

There's one thing that is keeping me from betting on the Titans, and it's that this is their third-consecutive away game. Underdogs playing in their third-straight road affair often struggle to cover the spread, which makes sense because bad teams (underdogs) won't step up and fight through fatigue.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps love the Titans. Every good bettor I know is taking them. If this weren't their third-consecutive road game, I would as well.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: Chad Millman confirmed the sharps are pounding Tennessee. He said that they're downgrading Peyton Manning by two points or so because of the weather.


The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
This is a weird game for the Broncos, who are coming off a win against the Chiefs and have the Chargers coming up.


The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
A ton of action on the Broncos.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 77% (28,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Mike Munchak is 6-12 ATS playing a team with a winning record.
  • Peyton Manning is 4-7 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite of 12+.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -12.5.
  • Opening Total: 50.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 17 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Titans 17
    Titans +13 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 50 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Broncos 51, Titans 28






    St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Arizona Cardinals (7-5)
    Line: Cardinals by 6. Total: 41.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -6.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 13): Cardinals -4.
    Sunday, Dec. 8, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

    I used to post a Survivor update in this spot, but the contest is over with Joshsports60 being the victor:



    There's good news though - my programmers are currently working on an NFL Mock Draft Builder, so we will be having our NFL Mock Draft contest on this Web site for the first time. Look for the NFL Mock Draft Builder right after Christmas.

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: Carson Palmer had two or more turnovers in seven of his first nine games, but he cleaned things up after that - until the Philadelphia contest, that is. Palmer committed three give-aways, which doesn't bode well for this divisional battle. The Rams put a ton of heat on the quarterback - only five teams have more sacks - and the issues the Cardinals have with their offensive line are well documented. Palmer took five sacks at Philadelphia, and he could be in for a similar afternoon this week.

    Something that hurt Palmer last week was the absence of Andre Ellington, an explosive running back who can go the distance on any play. Bruce Arians revealed afterward that Ellington wasn't even close to suiting up, which is obviously ominous for his chances of taking the field in this contest. It sounds like it'll be all Rashard Mendenhall again. Mendenhall won't have much success versus the Rams, who have limited their previous three opponents to an average of 45.3 rushing yards per game. This includes Frank Gore and Matt Forte.

    Palmer will have to do everything himself, which, as discussed earlier, will mean more sacks and turnovers. However, the Rams don't have a particularly strong secondary, so Palmer will be able to sustain some scoring drives, as St. Louis will struggle to cover Larry Fitzgerald and the emerging Michael Floyd.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams may have even more trouble scoring. As we saw last week, if St. Louis can't establish the run with impressive rookie Zac Stacy, it will struggle to move the chains the entire game because Kellen Clemens is pretty terrible. Stacy didn't have a bad game against San Francisco (19 carries, 72 yards), but he failed to reach four yards per try. His YPC will probably be worse in this contest because the Cardinals are even better at containing ground attacks than the 49ers are.

    Clemens won't be able to convert any sort of third-and-long situations. Arizona brings a great pass rush (13 sacks in its past four games), which could be extra effective this week if Jake Long doesn't play coming off a concussion. Clemens also won't be able to rely on any fluky long plays by Tavon Austin, as Arizona's defense isn't inept like Chicago or Indianapolis'. And yes, if you're someone who has sniffed enough glue to think that you were a former football player, those were fluky plays. And no, Austin is not the next Barry Sanders. Sorry to disappoint you.

    RECAP: I know I promised big plays earlier, but they're not coming yet. They'll be here soon, don't worry.

    I just don't have a feel for this game. It's tough to fade the Cardinals at home because they're so good there, but this spread is pretty big for them. The Rams, meanwhile, are in a good spot as road underdogs for the second-consecutive week, so they could cover the spread while still suffering a straight-up defeat.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There's some concern here with Carson Palmer's elbow. Palmer will be a game-time decision, so if you like the Rams, I'd bet them now. The sharp action is even.

    SUNDAY THOUGHTS: I'm seeing the spread fall to +4 or +4.5 in some places right now. There's late sharp action on the Rams, as they might believe that Carson Palmer could struggle with his elbow injury.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on St. Louis: 52% (15,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Cardinals have won 10 of the last 14 meetings (Rams won the last 3).
  • Rams are 24-37 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Jeff Fisher is 39-25 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Cardinals are 23-9 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Cardinals 17, Rams 13
    Rams +6 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Under 41 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Cardinals 30, Rams 10






    New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7)
    Line: Chargers by 4. Total: 47.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 13): Chargers -2.
    Sunday, Dec. 8, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Giants.

    If you didn't catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 13 has been posted - Emmitt meets with Bill Belichick, while Brandon Meriweather and Donte Hitner are suspended.

    SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: If you listened to the B.S. Report, you may have heard that Bill Simmons was flabbergasted by the 17-7 Cincinnati result last week. Well, those who have been following the Chargers closely know that their offense is hamstrung by the injury to left tackle King Dunlap. The former Eagle, who has done a great job of protecting Philip Rivers' blind side, has been out for three games now with neck and concussion injuries. His absence has forced rookie D.J. Fluker to the left side, where he isn't comfortable at all, and even worse, the anemic Jeromey Clary has to play right tackle. He's awful.

    San Diego has had trouble moving the chains without Dunlap, with the exception being the final three quarters at Kansas City. The difference there was that Justin Houston and Tamba Hali both left the game with injuries. The Chargers didn't have much success moving the chains before that. So, with all of that in mind, San Diego will be hoping Dunlap can return to the lineup because the once-dormant Giants' pass rush has 17 sacks in its previous five games.

    If Rivers is unable to find time in the pocket, the Chargers will have major issues scoring points. They were at least able to run the ball on the Geno Atkins-less Bengals last week, but the Giants have been better against ground attacks. New York just limited the Washington running backs to just 32 yards on 17 carries.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Bengals should have accumulated more than 17 points, but Andy Dalton sucked. Dalton was all over the place, failing to connect with open receivers all afternoon. Eli Manning, who has been sharp lately - he went 22-of-28 for 235 yards Sunday night - will definitely have more success.

    The Chargers won't offer much resistance, as they happen to own one of the league's worst defenses. Thanks to an incredibly pathetic secondary, they're 31st against the pass in terms of YPA. The Redskins are the only team that's the worse, and Manning just dissected them. San Diego also doesn't get much pressure on the quarterback; it failed to register a single sack on Dalton.

    San Diego is better versus the rush, but only by default; only four teams have given up a worse YPC over the past month than the Chargers. BenJarvus Green-Ellis looked like the second coming of Corey Dillon against them, so Andre Brown should be in store for a big game.

    RECAP: This is one of my two favorite picks of the week. I love New York for the following reasons:

    1. The Giants seem to be gaining confidence. They've won five out of six, with the lone exception being a last-second loss to Dallas. They haven't beaten the best teams, but they've gotten the job done, and besides, it's not like San Diego is a fierce opponent or anything.

    2. The Chargers aren't good enough to be laying a field goal in what isn't a good homefield advantage for them; they're 8-13 against the spread in their previous 21 home contests.

    3. San Diego won't be entirely focused for New York; the team has a game in four days, but this is no ordinary contest. It's against the arch-rival Broncos.

    4. The sharps, getting the sense that the Giants are the right side, are all over them. The public, meanwhile, is pounding the Chargers.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: King Dunlap is going to play, but I'll trade that for half a point. I don't get how anyone can lay more than a field goal with this defensively inept San Diego team. I'm keeping four units on the Giants. The sharps are split on this.

    SUNDAY THOUGHTS: This is an other occasion in which Chad Millman stated that the sharps like the Chargers, but I know there is sharp action on the Giants as well. This spread is now +4, so I like New York even more.


    The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
    The Chargers take on the Broncos next week, followed by two more divisional games.


    The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
    Money on the Chargers.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 60% (17,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Giants are 38-17 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they're not favored by 3.5 or more.
  • Eli Manning is 29-16 ATS as an underdog since 2007.
  • Philip Rivers is 25-16 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -3.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: .


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Giants 24, Chargers 20
    Giants +4 (4 Units) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Under 47.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Chargers 37, Giants 14






    Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
    Line: 49ers by 2.5. Total: 41.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 13): 49ers -4.
    Sunday, Dec. 8, 4:25 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Dec. 2, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is the AT&T It's Not Complicated Commercials Part 2.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers were a train wreck on this side of the ball the last time they battled the Seahawks. Scoring three points, San Francisco held the ball for about only 23 minutes and committed a whopping five turnovers. Colin Kaepernick was responsible for four of them. Three were interceptions, while the other was a strip-sack. Kaepernick failed to complete half of his passes, going 13-of-28 for 127 yards otherwise.

    There were a few issues here. First of all, the 49ers were playing in Seattle, where the Seahawks are just so much more dominant defensively (as we saw when they limited Drew Brees to seven points). Second, Kaepernick's only viable weapon in that contest was Anquan Boldin. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham were obviously both out, while Vernon Davis left the game early with a hamstring. Kaepernick has been so much worse without Davis on the field. With Davis gone, Kaepernick couldn't even target Boldin because Richard Sherman smothered him.

    Things will be much different in San Francisco. Kaepernick, who has played well the past two weeks, is gaining confidence at the right time. He'll definitely have way more success moving the chains this time, if only by default.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks basically did whatever they wanted to offensively against the Saints, but that wasn't much of a surprise, given how effective they are at home. However, they'll find it to be much more challenging on the road versus the 49ers, who are ranked in the top 10 in nearly almost every defensive category.

    One such area that this doesn't apply to is the pass rush. The 49ers are just 19th in that regard with 29 sacks on the year. However, that figure will quickly rise over the final four weeks of the season because Aldon Smith is back in the lineup. Since Smith's return, San Francisco has generated tons of pressure on the quarterback. Russell Wilson, who normally isn't protected very well, could be running for his life come Sunday. Then again, this is when Wilson is at his best.

    Speaking of running, don't expect very much from Marshawn Lynch. Though Lynch was able to rush for 98 yards in the first meeting, this was because the Seahawks maintained such a big lead throughout. The 49ers are pretty stout versus ground attacks, so Beast Mode figures to be limited, much like he was Monday night.

    RECAP: Teams often fare very well against the spread coming off victories on Monday night, but I'm taking the 49ers here for two reasons: First, the Seahawks aren't very good on the road (see trends below). Second, this game doesn't mean as much for Seattle. Whereas San Francisco is fighting for its playoff life and looking to make a statement, the Seahawks have essentially clinched homefield (they have tie-breakers over both New Orleans and Carolina), so this contest, aside from its rivalry aspect, is essentially meaningless for them.

    I'd like to go big on the 49ers here, but I'm not a fan of where this spread is. Everyone pretty much believes the Seahaws are the best team in the league, so why is San Francisco -3? Couldn't it be -1, or something?

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There's nothing really to note here. The sharps are split. My pick remains the same.

    SUNDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing to add here. Again, I'm disappointed by this spread. I wish the 49ers were a home dog.


    The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
    This game means so much more to the 49ers. The Seahawks locked up homefield, while the 49ers still have to get into the playoffs. Plus, they'll want revenge for that Week 2 blowout.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 54% (32,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • History: Home Team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Seahawks are 20-32 ATS on the road since 2006 if they're not coming off an away loss.
  • Seahawks are 3-11 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -3.
  • Opening Total: 41.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 48 degrees. Light wind.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: 49ers 19, Seahawks 13
    49ers -2.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 41 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    49ers 19, Seahawks 17






    Carolina Panthers (9-3) at New Orleans Saints (9-3)
    Line: Saints by 3. Total: 47.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -4.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 13): Saints -5.5.
    Sunday, Dec. 8, 8:20 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: Saints.

    I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

    I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

    I added a second fake account this year - Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I've written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

    Unfortunately, some a**holes with no sense of humor decided to flag Miss Vivian as a troller, so I had to make a new account. Kevin Reilly has been born!

    Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: So much for the Saints' top-five defense. New Orleans was completely exposed Monday night, as Russell Wilson threw all over them. Wilson was unstoppable, running around and making big plays out of nothing. If the Saints had this much trouble against Wilson, how are they going to stop another mobile quarterback in Cam Newton?

    Aside from the occasional head-scratching interception, Newton is playing great right now. The Saints might be able to sack him once or twice, but Newton, who has 51 rushing yards or more in each of his previous three games, will be able to frustrate Rob Ryan's defense by escaping from pressure. He'll also be able to connect with his receivers, especially Steve Smith, who won't have to worry about a cornerback as talented as Aqib Talib, Brent Grimes or Darrelle Revis for the first time since Week 10.

    The Saints' defense will at least give itself a chance to get off the field on occasion by placing Newton in third-and-long situations. The team's ability to stop the run has improved greatly recently; following a sluggish start in that area, New Orleans has surrendered just 3.67 YPC to its previous four opponents, including just 82 rushing yards on 29 carries to Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks on Monday night (quarterback scrambles excluded).

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints couldn't get anything going on this side of the ball against the Seahawks. They were just outmatched. In addition to battling a top defense, they were trying to score in freezing, rainy conditions. New Orleans' offense is built on airing the ball out, so it's no wonder the unit sputtered.

    Things will be much different in the Superdome. The Saints are just so much more lethal at home. Drew Brees' numbers tell the whole story:



    Brees should have a big game, especially when going to Jimmy Graham. Teams like the Seahawks and Patriots were able to minimize Graham with strong secondary play, but the Panthers just don't have the personnel to contain him. Meanwhile, the defensive front doesn't match up particularly well against Brees' line. Brees does fine against exterior pressure, but it's the interior rush that affects him. Most of Carolina's heat comes from its stud defensive ends, so Brees should have plenty of time to find Graham.

    RECAP: This is one of my top two plays of the week. I love the Saints. Here's why:

    1. New Orleans is an automatic bet at home for me, especially in night games. The crowd will be going nuts, and the awesome fans will once again carry their team to victory. As you can see below, the Saints are 11-3 against the spread in night home games in the Brees era.

    2. This is actually the first time Newton will be playing a real game in the Superdome. The first occasion was in a meaningless Week 17 affair. Last year, the Saints weren't themselves because they didn't have Sean Payton. Newton won't be prepared for this crowd noise. He won't be able to hear anything.

    3. I love getting Brees off a loss; he's 25-14 against the spread following a defeat with New Orleans.

    4. This spread is off by nearly a field goal. Considering everything, including the Saints' impressive homefield advantage, my calculated line is -5.5. It's only -3.

    I'm taking New Orleans for four units. The Panthers will probably get revenge two weeks later, but this will be the Saints' time to shine.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There's no sharp-related information to post here, as it's pretty much even. I still love the Saints for four units.

    SUNDAY THOUGHTS: ESPN spent an entire segment talking up the Panthers' defense - even the mediocre secondary - and Tom Jackson even said that Drew Brees could struggle in the Superdome on a rare occasion. You know what that means, right? The Saints are definitely the play.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    Lots of late money on the Saints.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 74% (35,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • History: Road team has won 12 of the last 19 meetings (Panthers won the last 2 meetings).
  • Saints are 31-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.
  • Saints are 11-3 ATS in night home games in the Drew Brees era.
  • Drew Brees is 25-14 ATS after a loss with the Saints.
  • Saints are 15-24 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Saints -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Saints 26, Panthers 17
    Saints -3 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Under 46 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Saints 31, Panthers 13




    Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6)
    Line: Bears by 1. Total: 49.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -1.
    Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 13): Bears -2.5.
    Monday, Dec. 9, 8:30 ET
    Discuss Week 14 Games, Talk Trash

    The Game. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we're going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here's what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Chicago, the Windy City, and the City of Angels! Tonight's game features the Bears, who will beat the Cowboys into the ground because the Cowboys won't have Tony Romo. I've made sure Romo won't be a factor in this game, or any other game in the future. Let's just say that the pre-game warmups will be explosive!

    Emmitt: Rolo, you already try to set up Tony Romo the bomb in the passed, but you failure. Always failure. Every time you try to make Romo explosive, you failure.

    Reilly: My plan this time is fool-proof, Emmitt. I snuck into Romo's house earlier in the week. While he was asleep, I pulled down his pants and inserted a small bomb into his butt. All I have to do is push this button, and BOOM! Romo is gone, and my Eagles will prevail in the NFC East!

    Edwards: DON'T DO IT KEVIN! DON'T PRESS THE BUTTON! DON'T HIT THE SWITCH! DON'T PULL THE TRIGGER! DON'T MAKE AN EXPLOSION! DON'T MAKE A BANG! DON'T MAKE A BOOM! DON'T MAKE FIREWORKS! ROMO'S A GOOD GUY! HE'S A GOOD PERSON! HE'S A GOOD HUMAN BEING! HE DOESN'T DESERVE TO DIE! HE DOESN'T DESERVE TO PERISH! HE DOESN'T DESERVE TO MEET HIS MAKER! HE DOESN'T DESERVE TO GO TO HEAVEN! I MEAN HE DOESN'T DESERVE TO GO TO HEAVEN NOW! HERM DIDN'T MEAN HE WON'T GO TO HEAVEN! HERM MEANT HE'S NOT GOING TO HEAVEN YET! HERM'S TRYING TO SAY HE'S NOT GOING TO H-E-DOUBLE HOCKEY STICKS! THAT SPELLS HELL! WHOOPS, HERM DIDN'T MEAN TO SAY HELL! HELL'S NOT THAT BAD OF A WORD, BUT HERM DON'T LIKE TO SAY IT! HERM DON'T LIKE TO SAY IT, NOW! BUT SAYING HEAVEN IS FINE! HEAVEN IS GREAT! HEAVEN IS GOOD! ALL DOGS GO TO HEAVEN! BUT NOT ALL PEOPLE GO TO HEAVEN! NOT ALL PEOPLE GO TO HEAVEN, NOW! BUT THAT'S BESIDE THE POINT! THE POINT IS... UHH... HERM FORGOT THE POINT! WHAT WAS THE POINT? WHAT WAS THE POINT, NOW? WHAT WAS... uhh... umm...

    Reilly: Herm, my only regret today is that I didn't put a bomb in your butt either. The fact that you want Romo to live is more reason for me to kill him. Does anyone have any last words for Romo before I push this button?

    Tollefson: Kevin, I agree with your decision. Tony used to be a great guy. He used to get all of the girls. I used to follow him around at night and pick up all of the chicks he rejected. Those were the days. Those women were so distraught that they were more than willing to cook and clean naked for Tony's older brother. That's right - I pretended to be Romo's older brother, and they fell for it, hook, line and sinker because all women are stupid. But now Romo's married and doesn't go out anymore, so I can't use this strategy. I can't believe how selfish he is, so as far as I'm concerned, bombs away.

    Griese: If you step on the bomb, you can pick it up and throw it at your enemies, and it'll explode.

    Reilly: We're not playing Super Mario Brothers, old man. OK, here it goes! 3... 2... 1... BOOM! Boom... boom... What the hell, it's not working!?

    Millen: I'll have to take responsibility for that, Kevin.

    Reilly: WHAT!?

    Millen: Tony might be married, but this is all a ruse. He still prefers the company of 100-percent USDA Men. When he came into town, my kielbasa sextant signaled that an 800-percent USDA Man was in my presence, so I lured him back to my hotel room for a night of kielbasa delight. As we were inserting kielbasas into each other's backsides, we noticed a small bomb. I'm all for kinky things like handcuffs and whips, but it was getting in the way, so we took it out.

    Reilly: YOU IDIOT! Where did you put that bomb?

    Millen: We just stuck it in the drawer, Kevin. We should have thrown it out because as everyone 100-percent USDA Man knows, bombs and kielbasas do not mix.

    Reilly: My plan is ruined! Hey, where is Charles Davis?

    Millen: Oh, Charles Davis is staying in the room, and he remained there today because he felt sick.

    Reilly: YES! I KILLED CHARLES DAVIS! NO MORE POINTLESS FACTS DURING THE TELECAST! I DIDN'T GET TO KILL ROMO, BUT I'M STILL SUPER HAPPY! We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: We aren't sure of Jason Campbell or Brandon Weeden's status, so there's no spread posted for the Cleveland-New England game. No one knows if Aaron Rodgers will play, so no line is available for Green Bay-Atlanta. It's interesting though that Jay Cutler's availability is unknown, yet Vegas has a spread listed. I suppose that tells you all you need to know about what Vegas thinks of the difference between Cutler and Josh McCown.

    McCown has been great in relief of Cutler, maintaining a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, a 7.9 YPA and a 65.2 completion percentage. McCown has battled some soft defenses like the Redskins, Packers and Vikings, but Dallas certainly belongs in that pantheon. The Cowboys have a bottom-10 stop unit in terms of YPA. Christian Ponder and Matt McGloin are just two of the quarterbacks who have looked decent against them. If they could excel versus Dallas, why can't McCown with his impressive arsenal?

    Dallas will have a boost with the return of Sean Lee to the lineup. He'll certainly help, but it's unclear in what capacity. There's no guarantee Lee will be close to 100 percent. Thus, I wouldn't expect Matt Forte to slow down versus the NFL's second-worst run defense over the past month.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: While the Cowboys have been second-worst versus the rush, Chicago is the absolute worst. Since the bye, no team has gained fewer than 146 yards on the ground against them. That fact is just staggering. I understand the Bears are incredibly banged up, but there's still no reason for that level of futility.

    DeMarco Murray will run wild on the Bears, setting up Tony Romo with short-yardage opportunities. As if he'll need them. Chicago has a battered secondary that just made Matt Cassel look like an All-Pro quarterback. I don't see how the Bears can possibly contain Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and all of Romo's other weapons.

    One thing that may help the Bears is an improved pass rush. They mustered just 10 sacks in their first seven games, but they've recorded 15 sacks in the five contests since then. Dallas' pass protection hasn't been very good since losing Brian Waters; the team has allowed 12 sacks in its previous four games.

    RECAP: Everyone talks about how Tony Romo chokes in December or Week 17 onward, but how about on Monday night? Romo is a horrific 1-7 against the spread on Monday Night Football. For whatever reason, he and his team just don't perform up to standards in the spotlight.

    There isn't much of a difference between the Cowboys and Bears, so I'm confused about why Dallas opened as a favorite. The sharps felt the same way because they've pounded Chicago. That's why the Bears are now a slight favorite with lots of money pouring in on Dallas.

    I'm going to bet three units on the Bears if Cutler doesn't play. If Cutler gets the nod, they might be overconfident. If it's McCown, however, they'll be at their best. This is a must-win for them if they want to stay in playoff contention. One might argue the same for Dallas, but that's simply not true; the Cowboys still will control their own destiny in the NFC East even if they lose this game.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Bears. This spread opened Dallas -1.5, but they pushed it up to Chicago -2.5 in most places, though it's still pick 'em on Bovada and -1 on 5Dimes. I'm staying with three units on the Bears.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
    The public likes the Cowboys, predictably.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 72% (62,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: TBA.
  • Cowboys are 19-9 ATS as an underdog since 2009. ???
  • Tony Romo is 9-20 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (2-7 ATS as an underdog).
  • Tony Romo is 1-7 ATS on Monday Night Football.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 49.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 15 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.


    Week 14 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Cowboys 24
    Bears -1 (3 Units) -- Correct; +$300
    Over 49 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Bears 45, Cowboys 28



    Week 14 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Houston?at?Jacksonville, Indianapolis?at?Cincinnati, Buffalo?at?Tampa Bay, Kansas City?at?Washington, Minnesota?at?Baltimore, Cleveland?at?New England, Oakland?at?NY Jets, Detroit?at?Philadelphia, Atlanta?at?Green Bay, Miami?at?Pittsburgh


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Bengals -0.5, Bills +8.5 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
  • Moneyline Underdog: Giants +160 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50



    NFL Picks - Jan. 16


    2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11


    2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15


    NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14


    2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14


    2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
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    2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)

    2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280)
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    2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0)
    2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
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    2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
    2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
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    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
    2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
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    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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