NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2025): 7-9 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2025): 9-7 (+$1,790)
2025 NFL Picks: 112-103-5 (+$1,055)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 21, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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Week 15 Analysis: We had another great week overall. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jaguars, 5 units (win): What a beautiful game. Not only did we win five units on the side, we also won nearly seven more units on Trevor Lawrence passing yard props.

Chiefs, 3 units (loss): The Chiefs lost a massive number of players in this game to injury. I don’t think it would have mattered, but it certainly didn’t help.

Seahawks, 5 units (loss): What a pathetic performance by the Seahawks. I guess they were looking ahead, but that doesn’t excuse their horrible offensive game plan, which was to fail to take advantage of an Indianapolis secondary missing both of its starting outside cornerbacks.

Rams, 3 units (win): It looked like the Rams weren’t going to cover when they were losing at halftime. Before long, they were up by double digits!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams were cruising their way to victory in the second half over the Lions when they suffered two potentially catastrophic injuries. Davante Adams pulled his hamstring running a deep route, and then Puka Nacua suffered a leg injury. Nacua looks to be OK, but Adams could miss some time. He may be ready for the playoffs – the opening-round bye would certainly help – but he definitely won’t be playing in this game.

Matthew Stafford had his way with the Seahawks early in the first meeting. He engineered two early touchdown drives, but Seattle’s top-ranked defense put the clamps on him after that, limiting the Rams to just seven points the rest of the way. Adams not being available this time will make things even more difficult for the Rams, though Adams had just one measly receiving yard in that game.

The Seahawks are stout against wide receivers and running backs, so do the Rams just have no hope of moving the chains? No, and they can do so with their various tight ends. Stafford didn’t target his many tight ends all that much in the first meeting, but not having Adams could force Stafford in that direction. If so, that’ll be a good thing because the Seahawks surrender the fourth-most production to tight ends.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While Stafford struggled in the first meeting, that was nothing compared to what Sam Darnold endured. Darnold threw a whopping four interceptions. This was hardly a surprise because Darnold has a habit of coming up small in big moments, largely because he folds like a cheap suit under pressure.

And there will be plenty of pressure in this game. The Rams excel at smothering quarterbacks, so they’ll be able to hound Darnold all evening. They debacled him in the playoff game last year, and they did so again in the first meeting this season, so they’ll be able to do it again.

The Seahawks won’t get much out of their rushing attack either. The Rams are fifth against the run, and it’s not like the Seahawks have quality run blocking to overcome that. Kenneth Walker pathetically rushed for just two yards every time against the Colts, and the Rams have a better ground defense than Indianapolis.

RECAP: Has Darnold ever come through in a big game? He’s a guy who once said he saw ghosts against Bill Belichick in a Monday night game. He was blown out by the Lions in the finale last year, which was for the No. 1 seed, and he then went on to get blown out by the Rams. These very same Rams then beat him in the four-interception performance earlier this season.

I don’t see why things would be different this time. Is it because the Seahawks will be at home? Seattle has actually played better on the road under Mike Macdonald. Is it because the Seahawks will be out to get revenge? Revenge only applies when the other team won’t be motivated, but the Rams will certainly be up for this game because this contest is for the division.

I can’t find a reason why Darnold would suddenly overcome his past demons. I like the Rams. I won’t go nuts with this game because I hate betting Thursday night games, but two units seems fine.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Rams won’t have Davante Adams available, but the Seahawks will be down Charles Cross, their best offensive lineman. The Rams win that exchange because they can utilize more two- and three-tight end sets, and the Seahawks are poor at defending tight ends.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a no-sweat bet up to $50. We’re going with Colby Parkinson over 38.5 receiving yards -110.

We’re going to DraftKings for our same-game parlay because they have a 30-percent boost. We’re going with Colby Parkinson over 39.5 receiving yards, Sam Darnold under 223.5 passing yards, and Kenneth Walker under 45.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $178.75. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps jumped on the Seahawks when they were home underdogs a couple of days ago, likely because it was obvious that Davante Adams would be ruled out. I still like the Rams for a small play. The best line is +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.

Computer Model: Seahawks -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 62% (202,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Rams have won 16 of the last 23 meetings, excluding when they sat their starters.

Seahawks are 63-49 ATS as home favorites since 2007. ???

Opening Line: Rams -1.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Rain, 44 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles were in a rough spot last week because they were coming off a grueling overtime game on the West Coast and had to get ready for the Raiders on short rest while flying back across the country. Luckily for the Eagles, they didn’t need much preparation time for that particular opponent.

The Eagles won’t need to prepare very much for the Redskins either. As bad as the Raiders looked last week, the Redskins have even worse rankings defensively. They’re 22nd against the run and have been gashed by nearly opponent, so this could be a rare instance in which Saquon Barkley is able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.

Even if Barkley can’t get going, the Eagles will be able to torch the Redskins mercilessly. Washington has no pass rush to speak of, which has put pressure on an injury-ravaged secondary. The linebackers are especially awful because they’re so slow, meaning Dallas Goedert could have another monster game.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: In preparation for this game, I wrote that it was currently unclear what the Redskins would be doing at quarterback this week. They could start Marcus Mariota again, which seems to be the most likely scenario because Jayden Daniels has been injured so much. And that’s exactly what they’ve decided. In fact, they’ve shut Daniels down for the rest of the season.

Given that Mariota will be starting once more, the Redskins won’t be doing much scoring in this game. We saw Mariota and Daniels both struggle against a Minnesota defense that generates tons of pressure, and the Eagles can certainly get to the quarterback. This is especially important for Mariota because he has a huge dichotomy when it comes to being kept clean and being under pressure. The Redskins lost Laremy Tunsil last week to an injury, so if he’s out or hobbled, the Eagles will have an easy time rattling Mariota.

The Redskins also don’t have much of a rushing attack to aid Mariota. They were able to run well last week, but only because the Giants have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. By contrast, the Eagles are eighth versus the rush.

RECAP: Mariota thrived last week, which could make people forget how bad he and Daniels were in the loss to the Vikings. Philadelphia’s defense is obviously closer in talent to the Giants’ defense. In fact, the Eagles are rated higher defensively than Minnesota.

This is incredibly problematic for a one-dimensional Redskins offense that will start a backup quarterback once again. Backup signal-callers tend to play better than expected against average or worse defenses, but they struggle mightily against top-tier competition. We just saw Kenny Pickett generate 75 yards of offense last week, and while Mariota is a better quarterback than Pickett, he doesn’t stand much more of a chance, especially if his Pro Bowl left tackle is sidelined or limited.

As you can tell, I like the Eagles for a considerable wager. Another thing that helps is added motivation. Players tend to get up for games with clinching scenarios, and that’s the case in this instance. The Eagles will clinch the division if they win this game, so they’ll be fired up to battle Washington.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Eagles may have some offensive line concerns – more than usual – if the injury report holds up, so that could get me to lower my unit count a bit. We’ll have more info within the next 24 hours.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to Philadelphia -7 with Laremy Tunsil ruled out. Good luck to Marcus Mariota against Philadelphia’s stellar defense without his left tackle. The Eagles still look great.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprises on the injury report. The sharps are betting the Eagles, even at -7. The best line is -7 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: This is a bit late, but we still have 45 minutes to go. I’m going to parlay Dallas Goedert over 38.5 receiving yards, Deebo Samuel under 43.5 receiving yards, and Marcus Mariota over 30.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $155.12. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles can clinch the division with a win.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -4.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 83% (210,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Eagles have won 12 of the last 16 meetings.

Jalen Hurts is 11-18 ATS as a road favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 34 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 21-43-1 heading into Week 15.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers -12.5

Lions +6

Bengals +2.5

Chargers +6

Cowboys -5.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots +3

Texans -14

Vikings -2.5

Eagles -6.5

Bills -8.5

Between this and SNAP benefits/fraud, there are going to be many hungry people in this final month of football.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Sunday’s game against the Broncos was a disaster for the Packers. They lost key players on both sides of the ball. Micah Parsons was the best of the bunch, but before he was knocked out for the season, Zach Tom and Christian Watson were also injured.

Watson’s absence was huge. Already down Tucker Kraft, “No Cookie” Jordan Love was really leaning on Watson, which was the case last season as well. Watson’s absence was truly felt last year, and that was the case against the Broncos. Chicago doesn’t have as good of a defense as Denver, but the Bears will be able to limit the Packers if Watson is sidelined. Perhaps Matthew Golden will be able to step up, but he hasn’t shown us much in his rookie season.

Now dealing with injured receivers, Love will want to depend on Josh Jacobs. The Bears were weaker against the run earlier in the season when they were missing several linebackers, but they’ve improved in that area.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: As painful as the Watson and Tom injuries were, Parsons’ absence against Denver was the primary deciding factor in the game. Of the 264 pressures the Packers have produced this season, Parsons has 74 of them. No other Packer has notched more than 47 pressures. The Packers are also missing Devonte Wyatt and his 22 pressures.

In other words, Green Bay’s ability to generate quarterback pressure will be severely diminished. The Bears have a stout offensive line that already shielded Caleb Williams well, and now the Packers won’t be able to rattle Williams at all. Williams will be able to have all the time he needs to shred Green Bay’s secondary.

Parsons’ absence will also impact the rush defense. Parsons is a much better pass rusher than a run defender, but he still holds up very well in ground support. The Packers were 11th against the run, and now they’ll be worse. The Bears run block better than all but two teams in the NFL, so they’ll be able to blast open huge holes for D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.

RECAP: It’s crazy that the Packers are favored in this game. I’d understand it if Parsons and Watson were healthy, but they’re not. Watson’s absence limits the offense severely, while Parsons’ injury transforms Green Bay’s top-10 defense into a pedestrian unit.

The Bears are arguably better on both sides of the ball in the wake of the Green Bay injuries. I don’t fully trust Williams, but he’s going to have elite protection. Otherwise, Chicago is better than Green Bay in most facets. And yet, we’re getting a point-and-a-half with the Bears.

This is going to be a decent-sized play on Chicago. We’ll have to see if Watson and Tom return from being injured, so let’s make sure they’re both out once the injury reports are released.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Zach Tom hasn’t practiced yet, and neither has Josh Jacobs. Christian Watson returned to practice Wednesday, but only on a limited basis. The final injury report will be huge in determining how much I like the Bears.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Packers are going to be missing many players. Micah Parsons is obviously gone. Right tackle Zach Tom didn’t practice all week, while his backup, Darian Kinnard, is questionable with all limited practice. Excellent safety Evan Williams didn’t practice all week. Josh Jacobs had DNPs all week. Christian Watson may play after two limited practices, but he could be knocked out after one hit. The Bears won’t have Rome Odunze, but they’re in much better shape.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Watson is active, but there’s no telling how limited he’ll be. The sharps have been betting the Bears all week. The best line is Chicago -1 -110 at BetMGM. There’s a 20-percent profit boost there, up to $200.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Bears -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Plenty of money on the Bears early, but equal action late.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 58% (150,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 21 of the last 24 meetings.

Packers are 69-45 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 62-47 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Clear, 27 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I got some hate for my Mina Kimes takes last week, and here are some more:

Again, Mina Kimes is a DEI hire because if she were a straight white male, she would not have her ESPN job. There is no disputing that. No straight white male would ever get a job at a major network like that if they said nonsense things like, “Geno Smith is a top-10 quarterback.”

I continued my exchange with this beta male simp loser:

It’s always projection with these low-value individuals. They assume that no guy gets the girl because they never got the girl. It’s quite sad. I almost feel bad making fun of Thing, but he was quite rude.

We continued our exchange:

First of all, I was going for misogyny; not racism. Second, it’s so sad that he doesn’t believe that a man can get another woman that he refuses to believe I can even though I presented him with an avenue to see that it’s true. And third, I’m serious about blocking. I’ve never blocked anyone in my life. I don’t see the point. It seems like something those with the mentality of a 12-year-old girl would do. “OMG I LIEK HATE HIM SOOOO MUCH SO I’M GONNA LIEK BLOCK HIM AND STUFF LOLZ!”

Our final reply to one another:

It’s truly sad how pathetic this guy is. Imagine yearning for the approval of someone who thinks Geno Smith is a top-10 NFL quarterback. Thing has never touched a woman before, so his only hope is that Mina Kimes will like one of his posts someday.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen went into hero mode in the second half against the Patriots. Down 21-0, he took matters into his own hands – and legs – and managed to engineer a great comeback to win the game. He showcased why he deserves to be MVP this year.

Allen has his work cut out for him in this matchup. He’ll have to deal with Myles Garrett, who will be chasing him down in hopes of clinching the all-time single-season sack record. The Browns have the personnel to limit Allen in the pocket, as they’ve surrendered the fourth-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. In two meetings versus the Ravens, they restricted Lamar Jackson to 13 and 10 rushing yards. They’ve built their defense to combat Jackson, so they’ll be able to deal with Allen’s mobility.

The Bills will look to get James Cook going on the ground, which could be successful. The Browns have suffered some injuries and have been weak to the run over the past two weeks. They could be healthier this week, however, and if they are, they could revert to once again having a top-10 run defense unit.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Speaking of rushing attacks, we know how the Browns will want to combat the Bills. Buffalo’s run defense has been a sieve this year, and that continued this past week when we saw TreVeyon Henderson break free for 65- and 52-yard touchdown runs. Drake Maye also ran all over Buffalo until he forgot that he could utilize his legs late in the game.

The Bills were just gashed by one Ohio State rookie running back, so perhaps they’ll be trampled by the other. Quinshon Judkins should be able to take advantage of this terrific matchup. Shedeur Sanders, meanwhile, will be able to have some nice scrambles. While the Browns are fourth against quarterback scramblers, the Bills have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing signal-callers.

Buffalo also may have some issues defending the pass. Christian Benford missed last week’s game with an injury. Benford is Buffalo’s top cornerback, so Sanders will have some opportunities downfield if Benford is sidelined again.

RECAP: The Bills are favored by double digits, and yet the public is betting them like it’s free money. I like the other side, and this is not some contrarian play. The Bills don’t match up very well against the Browns because Cleveland’s defense is terrific at limiting mobile quarterbacks. The Browns will also be able to pound the ball successfully against Buffalo’s weak run defense.

Furthermore, this is a terrible spot for the Bills. They’re coming off a huge win versus the Patriots. Following this “easy” game, they’ll be taking on the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. It’s going to be incredibly easy for Buffalo to overlook Cleveland.

The Browns, meanwhile, are coming off their worst game of the year. I find it unlikely that they’ll play just as poorly this week, so a better effort should lead to a cover in what figures to be a close game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game where the injury report will dictate the unit count. I’d like to see some players returning to the field for the Browns because they’ve been banged up the past couple of weeks. Wednesday’s injury report didn’t look too promising, but it was only the start of the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns are a bit healthier than they were last week, but the Bills are also getting a key player back in Terrel Bernard. I still like the Browns, but I don’t know if I can get behind them for four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Keon Coleman is once again a healthy scratch, while the Browns won’t have Denzel Ward, Wyatt Teller, and David Njoku. I wish the Browns were healthier, but I still like them a bit. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -10.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Bills just beat the Patriots. They take on the Eagles after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.5.

Computer Model: Bills -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 83% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 26-19 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Opening Line: Bills -10.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s currently impossible to handicap this game because we don’t know which quarterback the Jets will start. It could be any of the three between Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook. Thankfully, Aaron Glenn said he’ll provide us with an update on Wednesday, so we may know what’s happening by the time the Thursday Thoughts are posted.

There’s obviously a big talent discrepancy between the former two quarterbacks and Cook, who was just as bad as anticipated last week. Cook is an athletic player, but has no pro-level talent. He couldn’t sustain drives against the Jaguars. While Jacksonville has the eighth-ranked defense, the Saints aren’t too far behind, coming in at No. 10 in defensive EPA. The Saints aren’t as good against the pass compared to the run, but it’s not like they’ll draw a tough matchup if they have to go against Cook. They could struggle a bit against Taylor, however.

The Saints, by the way, are terrific against the rush. They force many negative runs and shouldn’t have an issue bottling up Breece Hall. This will obviously be easier if Cook is under center, given that they won’t have to worry about being burned on downfield throws.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: If Cook gets the nod, he won’t be the only rookie quarterback in this game, as Tyler Shough will take the field once more. Shough had a rough start to his career in a blowout loss to the Rams, but has improved steadily ever since. He’s had some terrific second halves in upset victories.

Shough will be favored for the second time, and I’m sure he’ll be hoping that it’ll go better than the first instance, which was a home loss to the Falcons. Shough appears to have a good matchup in this game, as the Jets were down numerous cornerbacks last week. This allowed Trevor Lawrence to torch the Jets and win us tons of money in player prop bets. Shough obviously won’t have the same success as Lawrence, but he’ll be able to lead the Saints on numerous scoring drives.

The Jets have been weak to the run as well. The Saints have gone through a number of running backs due to injury, but perhaps Alvin Kamara will finally be able to return. If not, it might be Devin Neal, who got hurt last week, or perhaps Audric Estime, who had a great screen reception on the final drive versus the Panthers.

RECAP: We bet the Saints last week, but they were home underdogs. They are now favored by four or 4.5 points, which is quite the dynamic change. The last time they were favored by more than a field goal was Week 14 of last year with Derek Carr. They beat the Giants, but failed to cover as 5.5-point favorites, winning just 14-11. The last time they covered as favorites of more than a field goal was in Week 1 of 2024 in a blowout against Carolina.

If the Jets start Taylor or Fields, this will be a no-brainer. Obviously, the spread will fall, but I’m not sure it’ll go below New Orleans -3 because then the books will put themselves at risk of being middled. If it’s Cook once again, I’ll want to fade the Jets, but can’t really do so with the Saints being favored like this. Cook is not an NFL passer, but he might be able to scramble around a bit and make some things happen to cover this high spread.

Stay tuned later in the week. I’ll have an update on Thursday morning, as usual, so hopefully we have some clarity on the situation by then.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We did not get clarity from Aaron Glenn, after all. However, both Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields practiced Wednesday, albeit in limited participation. It looks like Brady Cook will not be starting this game, but anything is possible at this point.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brady Cook will start this game, which automatically makes the Saints the play. The question is how many units we’ll be betting on them. I hate the idea of laying nearly a touchdown with a team that doesn’t score very much, but the Saints might be worth a small bet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on the Saints all the way up to -6, but not at -6.5 (yet). The best line is -6.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.5.

Computer Model: Saints -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 56% (65,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: J.J. McCarthy’s sudden improvement was a great call-out, if I do say so myself. I loved the Vikings two weeks ago until it was announced that Jayden Daniels would be starting because McCarthy would face a completely different caliber of defense than he had seen since returning from his bye. Every defense McCarthy had battled prior to Washington was ranked 14th or higher. The Redskins were 32nd, while the Cowboys were 27th, so McCarthy naturally improved and looked like a viable signal-caller of the future for the Vikings.

McCarthy has yet another easy matchup. I mentioned that the Redskins were 32nd, but they are now 31st because the Giants have displaced them as the worst defense in the NFL. The Giants had no answer for Marcus Mariota last week, so it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to contain an improving McCarthy and all of his talented wide receivers.

The Giants are especially porous against the run. They were trampled by Jacory Croskey-Merritt last week, so they won’t stand much of a chance against Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants posted quality stats last week, but only did so late when the Redskins were playing a prevent defense. It was troubling that the Giants couldn’t score any points in the early stages of the game, given that they were battling the now-31st-ranked defense.

If the Giants didn’t have much offensive success against the Redskins, how will they move the ball on the Vikings, who did a fairly solid job of keeping Dallas’ potent offense in check on Sunday night? It’s especially problematic for Jaxson Dart, who will be facing a ton of pressure from Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense. Dart has been especially poor when pressured this year, and understandably so, given that he’s just a rookie. Compared to when he’s kept clean, Dart under pressure sees his completion percentage drop from 70.4 to a horrid 42.7, and his YPA falls from 7.2 to 5.9.

Speaking of Dart, he really didn’t run all that much against the Redskins last week. It’s unclear if the coaches are keeping him under wraps because they don’t want him to get concussed again, but if that’s the case, the Giants won’t be scoring very much because Dart isn’t much of a threat if he doesn’t utilize his best trait very often.

RECAP: We’ve been on the Vikings the past two weeks, and we’ll continue to tail them. People still have a negative perception of them because of all the games they lost since McCarthy’s return from injury. However, everyone seems to be ignoring that the quality of competition has declined recently, which would explain McCarthy’s improvement of play.

While I do like the Vikings to cover, I don’t think I’ll be betting this game. This isn’t the best spot for the Vikings because they’re coming off an upset victory over the Cowboys on national TV. They’re eliminated from playoff contention, so they don’t exactly have much to play for. I could see the Vikings having a bit of a letdown against a stupid 2-12 opponent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill missed Wednesday’s practice. It’s still early in the week, but if both of them are out, I’ll be switching my pick to the Giants.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings have some injuries that could flip my pick to the Giants. They’ll be missing Jonathan Greenard and Javon Hargrave, but more importantly, Christian Darrisaw is out and Brian O’Neill is questionable. If O’Neill is ruled out, the Vikings will have major blocking issues against the Giants’ strong pass rush.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brian O’Neill is active, so we don’t have a good play on either side. I’ll be on the Vikings for no units. The sharps took the Giants, but only at +3. The best line is Minnesota -2.5 -112 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Vikings are coming off an upset win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Easy money for the public.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 71% (79,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Vikings are 12-31 ATS in their road finale since 1980.

Opening Line: Vikings -1.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Chance of snow, 39 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers blew a big lead to the Falcons and lost Thursday night, but if there was one positive to take away from the game, it was that Mike Evans returned from injury and looked dominant. Evans’ absence made the Buccaneers’ offense less explosive, and his presence will continue to change that, especially with Baker Mayfield returning to full health.

Mayfield has been banged up, but perhaps the mini-bye will help his health. The matchup could make him look better as well. The Panthers struggle to get to the quarterback and defend the pass. Tyler Shough just shredded them twice in a span of a few weeks, so a healthier Mayfield with an energized receiver corps should fare well in this matchup.

Speaking of healthier players, Bucky Irving has returned to form since his injury. Irving also has a phenomenal matchup; the Panthers are 25th against the run.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: In past years, I could say that the Buccaneers would easily have the best run defense in this matchup. They’ve had Vita Vea clogging the interior, after all. This season is different, however, as Vea has not been himself because of a lingering back injury. As a result, the Buccaneers are 18th against the run.

This is huge news for the Panthers, who were swept by the Saints because they couldn’t run on their top-10 ground defense. If the Buccaneers continue to play at a below-average rate against the run, the Panthers will be able to keep the chains moving with their two talented backs.

Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard ripping off big runs will obviously aid Bryce Young, who needs to recover from last week’s dreadful performance. The Buccaneers tend to generate lots of quarterback pressure, and the Panthers don’t have the sort of talented tight end the Falcons possess to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s biggest weakness.

RECAP: I don’t have much interest in betting this game. I think this game is priced perfectly, and there are obviously no motivational factors in play. I would consider the Buccaneers as a potential wager if I knew Mayfield were 100 percent, but his health is an issue. Perhaps he’ll be much better after having more time off, but that’s just speculation.

I’m going to pencil in the Buccaneers as an office pool play, but the most likely result of this game is Tampa Bay winning by three, which is exactly what the spread is.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing new to add to this game. I’m still leaning toward the Buccaneers, but as a non-wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers somehow don’t have anyone on their injury report. The Panthers, meanwhile, could be missing their left tackle. Ikem Ekwonu is questionable, but barely practiced this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Panthers won’t have left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, but that won’t get me to back the Panthers. The sharps haven’t bet this game either. The best line is Tampa Bay -3 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 52% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Buccaneers have won 12 the last 14 meetings.

Road Team is 151-103 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 58 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe, but the Chiefs’ season is over. Patrick Mahomes fought so hard to keep his team afloat that he sacrificed his body in the process. Already dealing with a balky knee, Mahomes suffered a torn ACL while trying to will his team to victory.

I think we’re about to see why Mahomes deserved to be in MVP consideration every year. Gardner Minshew will start this game, and it’ll be very difficult for him to operate behind an offensive line that has many injuries. The Titans don’t have the best pass rush at all, but they do have Jeffery Simmons, who could dominate the trenches in this game. Minshew will be hurried and forced to throw to a group of receivers who can’t produce anything downfield. His best option will be Rashee Rice via dinking and dunking.

Minshew won’t be able to lean on a ground game either. The Chiefs can’t run the ball, while the Titans have been surprisingly solid at stopping the rush ever since getting Simmons back from injury.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: If the Chiefs win this game, it’ll have to be via their defense. The opponent is easy enough. The problem is that the Chiefs suffered multiple key injuries to their defense last week. This includes Chris Jones. While Jones returned to action, there’s a chance he won’t be 100 percent. The motivation might be in question for Jones as well, who had to be told by the media after the loss to the Chargers that his team was eliminated from the playoffs.

The Chiefs also saw Jaylen Watson and Nick Bolton get hurt against the Chargers. Like Jones, Bolton returned to action, but Watson did not. Watson has been Kansas City’s top cornerback this season, so the Chiefs’ pedestrian pass defense could be even worse than usual.

The only saving grace here for the Chiefs is that they’re battling the Cam Ward-led Titans. Ward has been a disaster this year, holding on to the ball way too long in the pocket and refusing to utilize his best trait, which is his mobility. Though the Chiefs have a hobbled defense that isn’t good enough in the first place, I don’t trust Ward enough to take advantage of it, especially with Tony Pollard likely to be stymied by a stout Kansas City run defense.

RECAP: What’s the motivation for the Chiefs in this game? They’ve been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era. They won’t even have Mahomes. They have nothing to play for. And sure, players are just hired mercs who will fight for new contracts, but they’ve been known to quit for a short time period because of circumstances such as these. Many Chiefs players could fight to close out the season, but they could also take this game off after being in so many must-win situations.

This is Titans or nothing for me, and that means it’s probably going to be nothing because I don’t want to wager my slightly hard-earned money on one of the two worst teams in the NFL. I just don’t trust the Titans, and I love to fade them in most instances, but this is not the time to do it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As if things weren’t bad enough for the Chiefs, Rashee Rice is now in danger of missing this game due to a concussion. He didn’t practice Wednesday, which is a negative indicator for his availability for this game. I wouldn’t say it’s impossible that I end up betting the Titans for a little bit.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs are treating this like Week 18. They’re sitting a high number of players, including their top three tackles, a starting linebacker (Leon Chenal), an outside cornerback (Trent McDuffie), and two wide receivers, including Rashee Rice. I find it absurd that Gardner Minshew and a skeleton-crew roster are favored by three on the road, even if it’s against the Titans. This will be a three-unit wager on Tennessee.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Titans, but only at +3.5. The best line now is +3.5 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

What do the Chiefs have to play for now?

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -11.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Does the public know that Patrick Mahomes is out?

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 53% (69,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 49 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I normally wouldn’t be surprised about Justin Herbert winning consecutive games against the two defending Super Bowl participants. These recent results have been shocking, however, given that Herbert has done so with a broken hand behind an anemic offensive line.

This sort of production can’t possibly last, but then again, this is a much easier matchup than Herbert has faced against the Eagles and Chiefs. The Cowboys have barely been able to stop anyone this year. They just allowed J.J. McCarthy to look like a Pro Bowler. They generated absolutely no pressure on him despite Christian Darrisaw’s absence. With that in consideration, I don’t think we can expect Herbert to see too much pressure despite the poor blocking in front of him.

The Cowboys are at least better against the run than the pass, so they won’t be completely inept in this matchup. However, they really struggle to cover wide receivers, and we know that Herbert has plenty of them.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Though I just gave Herbert the credit for beating the Eagles and Chiefs despite playing with an injured left hand and behind a porous offensive line, the Chargers scored only 22 and 16 points in those victories. The true hero has been the defense.

The Chargers rank second in EPA on this side of the ball. They’ve generated massive amounts of pressure on Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, forcing the latter into five turnovers. Top Cowboys offensive lineman Tyler Smith got hurt on Sunday night, so if he’s not 100 percent, that will present a big problem against this dynamic Chargers front. Dak Prescott usually handles pressure very well compared to other quarterbacks, but this is still far from an ideal situation.

I wouldn’t expect much from Javonte Williams either. The Chargers are fourth in run defense. The only blemish in the running game they’ve had since their bye was the 65-yard run by Saquon Barkley. They’ve otherwise limited every runner.

RECAP: Despite being underdogs, the Chargers have the edge on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Something like that is unusual, but it’s certainly true here, although Herbert’s troublesome hand could cause him to commit a turnover or two, especially given the issues on the offensive line.

Nevertheless, that could be negated by Dallas’ lack of motivation. The Cowboys will be eliminated from playoff contention if the Eagles beat the Redskins on Saturday afternoon, so they’ll know their fate by kickoff. It’s possible that they could still try hard – recall Detroit’s great performance in a Week 18 Sunday night game versus the Packers a few years ago – but Brian Schottenheimer doesn’t strike me as the master motivator that Dan Campbell happens to be.

If, however, the Eagles fall to the Redskins, we’ll have to revisit this selection. The Cowboys could be energized by that result, so my opinion on this game would change if the Eagles somehow found a way to lose.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Again, we’re waiting on what happens in the Eagles-Redskins game to make a determination on this pick. I can’t see a Jerry Jones-owned team trying very hard upon elimination.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cowboys have a major injury with DaRon Bland sidelined. Of course, the most important thing is the result of the Eagles game, so expect an important update Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys now have nothing to play for, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t try. That could be the case, but good luck trying to handicap this sort of motivation! The sharps have not played this game, while the Chargers are the No. 1 public side this week. The best line is +1.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: TBA.

The Cowboys could be eliminated by kickoff.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Lots of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 77% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Dak Prescott is 41-33 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Whoever was quarterbacking the Bengals last week was not Joe Burrow. I’m convinced that some look-alike kidnapped Burrow and took his jersey and pads, and played against the Ravens. Then again, you could go with Evan Daniel’s theory that Burrow showed up high to the game. Either way, we’ve never seen Burrow play this poorly when healthy.

Burrow actually told the media that he didn’t care anymore leading up to the game. I wish I had heard that quote before betting two units on the Bengals, but I don’t blame Burrow for thinking that way because his cheap owner refuses to spend any money on players or scouts. Burrow, in turn, effectively protested the game. Will he do that again? I’d ordinarily say no because NFL players need to fight for paychecks, but Burrow has tenure and is not in danger of losing any money. He could once again be a no-show.

It’ll be a shame if Burrow doesn’t play hard once again because this is a very easy matchup for him. Whereas the Dolphins are usually stout against the run, they are very poor against the pass. If Aaron Rodgers can misfire just four times against the Dolphins, imagine what a motivated Burrow could do.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Anyone just looking at the stats and seeing that the Dolphins generated 285 net yards of offense on 5.9 yards per play against the Steelers may assume that the Dolphins performed well offensively on Monday night. This, however, couldn’t be further from the truth. Miami mustered just three points until garbage time. The team didn’t exceed 100 net yards until the fourth quarter, so mostly everything occurred in garbage time.

The Dolphins weren’t even battling a tough defense. The Steelers are no sieve or anything, but they’re 15th in defensive EPA and were missing T.J. Watt. Despite Watt’s absence, Tua Tagovailoa took too many sacks, as his anemic offensive line betrayed him once again. The Bengals don’t have a very good pass rush without Trey Hendrickson, but they’ve done a good job of generating more pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks, at least prior to the loss to the Ravens.

While Burrow complains about the defense, Cincinnati’s stop unit has performed better recently; it has limited Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson in previous weeks. The Bills scored 39, but 14 points came off Burrow interceptions. Unless this is a fluke, the Bengals’ defense could have an unexpectedly positive showing in this game.

RECAP: Will Burrow play hard in this game? I wish we had the answer. My gut says yes, because the Bengals were humiliated in a shutout loss. In the past 15 years, teams coming off shutout losses are 47-31 against the spread. This signifies that the Bengals will try harder in this game, but then again, Burrow has tenure and isn’t fighting for a starting job. If he no-shows, then there’s nothing we can do about it.

I would love to know about Burrow’s effort level because the Bengals otherwise look great. The Dolphins won four in a row entering the Pittsburgh game because they had beaten a string of terrible opponents. They looked far worse than the Steelers, who are about even with the Bengals with a motivated Burrow. Obviously, the weather won’t be a factor, but the lack of preparation time will be. The Dolphins are a bad team, so they need all of the prep time they can get against a solid opponent. They won’t get that because they’re coming off a Monday night affair.

If you told me right now that Burrow will play hard, the Bengals would be one of my top plays of the week. But unless we hear some quotes about positive motivation, I can’t wager anything more than three units on Cincinnati.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Quinn Ewers will start this game. Ewers is a seventh-round rookie who is lucky to be on an NFL roster. Take a look at what Charlie Campbell wrote about him in his scouting report:

The biggest negative for Ewers as a pro quarterback is a lack of composure. Last season, Ewers got rattled by defenses at times, Georgia especially, and that could be a big problem for the NFL. Ewers can get timid and skittish in the pocket when teams put steady pressure on him, leading to him struggling with completions and decision-making. When teams start applying a rush on him, it seems to get in Ewers’ head as he will sometimes anticipate the rush coming in a clean pocket and react to a pass rush that isn’t there. Pro quarterbacks can’t play the position scared, so Ewers getting rattled by the pass rush is a real concern.

If I’m a Dolphins player, I know my chances of winning this game have been diminished in the wake of the quarterback swap, so I don’t think we’ll see a full effort from Miami.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bengals might be missing two of their defensive interior players, with Kris Jenkins out and B.J. Hill barely practicing this week. However, it looks like the Dolphins won’t have their top two defensive players. We know Minkah Fitzpatrick is out, while Jordyn Brooks barely practiced this week. I love being able to fade Quinn Ewers, all while getting the Bengals in a favorable spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins and Jordyn Brooks are playing for their respective teams, though I’m not convinced Brooks is healthy. The sharps bet the Bengals earlier in the week, but other pro money has come in on the Dolphins at +4.5 and +4. The best line now is -3.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 57% (79,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 45-24 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Joe Burrow is 19-9 ATS after a loss.

Dolphins are 22-8 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 30 instances. ???

Dolphins are 35-51 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 81 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.