2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Eagles at Redskins

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles were in a rough spot last week because they were coming off a grueling overtime game on the West Coast and had to get ready for the Raiders on short rest while flying back across the country. Luckily for the Eagles, they didn’t need much preparation time for that particular opponent.

The Eagles won’t need to prepare very much for the Redskins either. As bad as the Raiders looked last week, the Redskins have even worse rankings defensively. They’re 22nd against the run and have been gashed by nearly opponent, so this could be a rare instance in which Saquon Barkley is able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.

Even if Barkley can’t get going, the Eagles will be able to torch the Redskins mercilessly. Washington has no pass rush to speak of, which has put pressure on an injury-ravaged secondary. The linebackers are especially awful because they’re so slow, meaning Dallas Goedert could have another monster game.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: In preparation for this game, I wrote that it was currently unclear what the Redskins would be doing at quarterback this week. They could start Marcus Mariota again, which seems to be the most likely scenario because Jayden Daniels has been injured so much. And that’s exactly what they’ve decided. In fact, they’ve shut Daniels down for the rest of the season.

Given that Mariota will be starting once more, the Redskins won’t be doing much scoring in this game. We saw Mariota and Daniels both struggle against a Minnesota defense that generates tons of pressure, and the Eagles can certainly get to the quarterback. This is especially important for Mariota because he has a huge dichotomy when it comes to being kept clean and being under pressure. The Redskins lost Laremy Tunsil last week to an injury, so if he’s out or hobbled, the Eagles will have an easy time rattling Mariota.

The Redskins also don’t have much of a rushing attack to aid Mariota. They were able to run well last week, but only because the Giants have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. By contrast, the Eagles are eighth versus the rush.

RECAP: Mariota thrived last week, which could make people forget how bad he and Daniels were in the loss to the Vikings. Philadelphia’s defense is obviously closer in talent to the Giants’ defense. In fact, the Eagles are rated higher defensively than Minnesota.

This is incredibly problematic for a one-dimensional Redskins offense that will start a backup quarterback once again. Backup signal-callers tend to play better than expected against average or worse defenses, but they struggle mightily against top-tier competition. We just saw Kenny Pickett generate 75 yards of offense last week, and while Mariota is a better quarterback than Pickett, he doesn’t stand much more of a chance, especially if his Pro Bowl left tackle is sidelined or limited.

As you can tell, I like the Eagles for a considerable wager. Another thing that helps is added motivation. Players tend to get up for games with clinching scenarios, and that’s the case in this instance. The Eagles will clinch the division if they win this game, so they’ll be fired up to battle Washington.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Eagles may have some offensive line concerns – more than usual – if the injury report holds up, so that could get me to lower my unit count a bit. We’ll have more info within the next 24 hours.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to Philadelphia -7 with Laremy Tunsil ruled out. Good luck to Marcus Mariota against Philadelphia’s stellar defense without his left tackle. The Eagles still look great.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprises on the injury report. The sharps are betting the Eagles, even at -7. The best line is -7 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: This is a bit late, but we still have 45 minutes to go. I’m going to parlay Dallas Goedert over 38.5 receiving yards, Deebo Samuel under 43.5 receiving yards, and Marcus Mariota over 30.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $155.12. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.

The Eagles can clinch the division with a win.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -4.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 83% (210,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.