2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Bills at Browns

The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I got some hate for my Mina Kimes takes last week, and here are some more:

Again, Mina Kimes is a DEI hire because if she were a straight white male, she would not have her ESPN job. There is no disputing that. No straight white male would ever get a job at a major network like that if they said nonsense things like, “Geno Smith is a top-10 quarterback.”

I continued my exchange with this beta male simp loser:

It’s always projection with these low-value individuals. They assume that no guy gets the girl because they never got the girl. It’s quite sad. I almost feel bad making fun of Thing, but he was quite rude.

We continued our exchange:

First of all, I was going for misogyny; not racism. Second, it’s so sad that he doesn’t believe that a man can get another woman that he refuses to believe I can even though I presented him with an avenue to see that it’s true. And third, I’m serious about blocking. I’ve never blocked anyone in my life. I don’t see the point. It seems like something those with the mentality of a 12-year-old girl would do. “OMG I LIEK HATE HIM SOOOO MUCH SO I’M GONNA LIEK BLOCK HIM AND STUFF LOLZ!”

Our final reply to one another:

It’s truly sad how pathetic this guy is. Imagine yearning for the approval of someone who thinks Geno Smith is a top-10 NFL quarterback. Thing has never touched a woman before, so his only hope is that Mina Kimes will like one of his posts someday.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen went into hero mode in the second half against the Patriots. Down 21-0, he took matters into his own hands – and legs – and managed to engineer a great comeback to win the game. He showcased why he deserves to be MVP this year.

Allen has his work cut out for him in this matchup. He’ll have to deal with Myles Garrett, who will be chasing him down in hopes of clinching the all-time single-season sack record. The Browns have the personnel to limit Allen in the pocket, as they’ve surrendered the fourth-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. In two meetings versus the Ravens, they restricted Lamar Jackson to 13 and 10 rushing yards. They’ve built their defense to combat Jackson, so they’ll be able to deal with Allen’s mobility.

The Bills will look to get James Cook going on the ground, which could be successful. The Browns have suffered some injuries and have been weak to the run over the past two weeks. They could be healthier this week, however, and if they are, they could revert to once again having a top-10 run defense unit.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Speaking of rushing attacks, we know how the Browns will want to combat the Bills. Buffalo’s run defense has been a sieve this year, and that continued this past week when we saw TreVeyon Henderson break free for 65- and 52-yard touchdown runs. Drake Maye also ran all over Buffalo until he forgot that he could utilize his legs late in the game.

The Bills were just gashed by one Ohio State rookie running back, so perhaps they’ll be trampled by the other. Quinshon Judkins should be able to take advantage of this terrific matchup. Shedeur Sanders, meanwhile, will be able to have some nice scrambles. While the Browns are fourth against quarterback scramblers, the Bills have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing signal-callers.

Buffalo also may have some issues defending the pass. Christian Benford missed last week’s game with an injury. Benford is Buffalo’s top cornerback, so Sanders will have some opportunities downfield if Benford is sidelined again.

RECAP: The Bills are favored by double digits, and yet the public is betting them like it’s free money. I like the other side, and this is not some contrarian play. The Bills don’t match up very well against the Browns because Cleveland’s defense is terrific at limiting mobile quarterbacks. The Browns will also be able to pound the ball successfully against Buffalo’s weak run defense.

Furthermore, this is a terrible spot for the Bills. They’re coming off a huge win versus the Patriots. Following this “easy” game, they’ll be taking on the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. It’s going to be incredibly easy for Buffalo to overlook Cleveland.

The Browns, meanwhile, are coming off their worst game of the year. I find it unlikely that they’ll play just as poorly this week, so a better effort should lead to a cover in what figures to be a close game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game where the injury report will dictate the unit count. I’d like to see some players returning to the field for the Browns because they’ve been banged up the past couple of weeks. Wednesday’s injury report didn’t look too promising, but it was only the start of the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns are a bit healthier than they were last week, but the Bills are also getting a key player back in Terrel Bernard. I still like the Browns, but I don’t know if I can get behind them for four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Keon Coleman is once again a healthy scratch, while the Browns won’t have Denzel Ward, Wyatt Teller, and David Njoku. I wish the Browns were healthier, but I still like them a bit. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -10.5 -104 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Bills just beat the Patriots. They take on the Eagles after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -8.5.

Computer Model: Bills -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 83% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bills are 26-19 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Opening Line: Bills -10.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.