2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Raiders at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Questions from Conrad, where I discuss the odd questions my son asked me one morning.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans obviously have a great defense, but their offense has been lackluster by comparison. That changed last week when Houston hung 40 on the Cardinals. Granted, the Cardinals have a banged-up defense, but no one expected that point total for Houston, even against Arizona.

The Texans have yet another easy matchup this week. The Raiders faced a struggling Philadelphia offense and had no answer for what the Eagles were doing, even though the Eagles were coming off a tough overtime game on short rest. Jalen Hurts was terrific in a bounce-back effort, particularly when targeting Dallas Goedert.

The Raiders have been woeful against tight ends, so a strong performance from Dalton Schultz shouldn’t surprise anyone. Of course, the Texans have other ways to score. Nico Collins is coming off a big game and should have a repeat performance. The Texans also figure to run well, no matter who’s playing at running back between Woody Marks and Jawhar Jordan.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: As bad as the Raiders’ defense last week, their offense played far worse. They mustered only 75 net yards of offense and averaged a laughable 1.7 yards per play. In context, the team with the next-lowest yards per play in Week 15 was the Browns with 3.4.

It’s hard to imagine the Raiders improving if Geno Smith is sidelined again. I’m no believer that Smith is a top-10 NFL quarterback, which is something that ESPN DEI hire Mina Kimes said this offseason, but it’s obvious that he’s far better than Kenny Pickett, who was anemic. Now, to be fair, Pickett had some atrocious blocking in front of him. Things might be better from that perspective if Kolton Miller, the team’s best blocker by a mile, returns from a long hiatus. But there’s no telling if that’ll happen, and even if that does occur, we don’t know if Miller will be 100 percent in his first game back from injury.

With Smith or Pickett constantly under siege, the Raiders won’t move the ball much. They won’t get anything out of their ground attack either, given that Ashton Jeanty is constantly hit in the backfield.

RECAP: If Pickett starts again, it’s going to be difficult not to fade the Raiders, especially if Miller is out as well. Now, if we get Smith and Miller on the field, I wouldn’t want any part of the Texans at this price because the Raiders could play harder for pride after getting shut out.

Also, the Texans are in a poor scheduling spot. They’ve won many consecutive games, and after this “easy” game, they have to take on the 10-4 Chargers and the rival Colts. Given that this is their easiest remaining game of the season, they could easily have a letdown spot, allowing the Raiders to cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a good chance that both Geno Smith and Kolton Miller return to the lineup. In that case, this would definitely be Raiders or nothing for me.

SATURDAY NOTES: Geno Smith is back. There was some hope that Kolton Miller would play as well, but he’ll be sidelined. The Raiders won’t have any protection against Houston’s elite defense, which is a disaster. I’m switching my pick to the Texans.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still nothing here. I was hoping Kolton Miller would be back, but that is not the case.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Woody Marks is out, so Houston’s offense will be a bit less explosive. This is still a 50-50 game to me, and the sharps as well. The best line is -14 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Texans have the 10-4 Chargers and rival Colts after this game. The Raiders were just shut out.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -12.5.

Computer Model: Texans -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Equal action for a while, then late money on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 70% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Raiders are 20-15 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Opening Line: Texans -11.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.