2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Bengals at Dolphins

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

Oh, and my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Whoever was quarterbacking the Bengals last week was not Joe Burrow. I’m convinced that some look-alike kidnapped Burrow and took his jersey and pads, and played against the Ravens. Then again, you could go with Evan Daniel’s theory that Burrow showed up high to the game. Either way, we’ve never seen Burrow play this poorly when healthy.

Burrow actually told the media that he didn’t care anymore leading up to the game. I wish I had heard that quote before betting two units on the Bengals, but I don’t blame Burrow for thinking that way because his cheap owner refuses to spend any money on players or scouts. Burrow, in turn, effectively protested the game. Will he do that again? I’d ordinarily say no because NFL players need to fight for paychecks, but Burrow has tenure and is not in danger of losing any money. He could once again be a no-show.

It’ll be a shame if Burrow doesn’t play hard once again because this is a very easy matchup for him. Whereas the Dolphins are usually stout against the run, they are very poor against the pass. If Aaron Rodgers can misfire just four times against the Dolphins, imagine what a motivated Burrow could do.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Anyone just looking at the stats and seeing that the Dolphins generated 285 net yards of offense on 5.9 yards per play against the Steelers may assume that the Dolphins performed well offensively on Monday night. This, however, couldn’t be further from the truth. Miami mustered just three points until garbage time. The team didn’t exceed 100 net yards until the fourth quarter, so mostly everything occurred in garbage time.

The Dolphins weren’t even battling a tough defense. The Steelers are no sieve or anything, but they’re 15th in defensive EPA and were missing T.J. Watt. Despite Watt’s absence, Tua Tagovailoa took too many sacks, as his anemic offensive line betrayed him once again. The Bengals don’t have a very good pass rush without Trey Hendrickson, but they’ve done a good job of generating more pressure on the quarterback in recent weeks, at least prior to the loss to the Ravens.

While Burrow complains about the defense, Cincinnati’s stop unit has performed better recently; it has limited Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson in previous weeks. The Bills scored 39, but 14 points came off Burrow interceptions. Unless this is a fluke, the Bengals’ defense could have an unexpectedly positive showing in this game.

RECAP: Will Burrow play hard in this game? I wish we had the answer. My gut says yes, because the Bengals were humiliated in a shutout loss. In the past 15 years, teams coming off shutout losses are 47-31 against the spread. This signifies that the Bengals will try harder in this game, but then again, Burrow has tenure and isn’t fighting for a starting job. If he no-shows, then there’s nothing we can do about it.

I would love to know about Burrow’s effort level because the Bengals otherwise look great. The Dolphins won four in a row entering the Pittsburgh game because they had beaten a string of terrible opponents. They looked far worse than the Steelers, who are about even with the Bengals with a motivated Burrow. Obviously, the weather won’t be a factor, but the lack of preparation time will be. The Dolphins are a bad team, so they need all of the prep time they can get against a solid opponent. They won’t get that because they’re coming off a Monday night affair.

If you told me right now that Burrow will play hard, the Bengals would be one of my top plays of the week. But unless we hear some quotes about positive motivation, I can’t wager anything more than three units on Cincinnati.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Quinn Ewers will start this game. Ewers is a seventh-round rookie who is lucky to be on an NFL roster. Take a look at what Charlie Campbell wrote about him in his scouting report:

The biggest negative for Ewers as a pro quarterback is a lack of composure. Last season, Ewers got rattled by defenses at times, Georgia especially, and that could be a big problem for the NFL. Ewers can get timid and skittish in the pocket when teams put steady pressure on him, leading to him struggling with completions and decision-making. When teams start applying a rush on him, it seems to get in Ewers’ head as he will sometimes anticipate the rush coming in a clean pocket and react to a pass rush that isn’t there. Pro quarterbacks can’t play the position scared, so Ewers getting rattled by the pass rush is a real concern.

If I’m a Dolphins player, I know my chances of winning this game have been diminished in the wake of the quarterback swap, so I don’t think we’ll see a full effort from Miami.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bengals might be missing two of their defensive interior players, with Kris Jenkins out and B.J. Hill barely practicing this week. However, it looks like the Dolphins won’t have their top two defensive players. We know Minkah Fitzpatrick is out, while Jordyn Brooks barely practiced this week. I love being able to fade Quinn Ewers, all while getting the Bengals in a favorable spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Tee Higgins and Jordyn Brooks are playing for their respective teams, though I’m not convinced Brooks is healthy. The sharps bet the Bengals earlier in the week, but other pro money has come in on the Dolphins at +4.5 and +4. The best line now is -3.5 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 57% (79,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.