2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Falcons at Cardinals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe, but the Cardinals were once 12th in defense this year. This is not some misleading stat, like that’s where they were after one week of football. They ranked as such at the end of October, but things have fallen apart for them. They haven’t been able to stop anyone lately. Even Houston scored 40 points against them.

Injuries have hurt the Cardinals, but perhaps they’ll get some players back from injury. Walter Nolen, for example, could help. Nolen returned from injury last week and wasn’t effective at less than 100 percent, but he’s been a dominant force despite being a rookie. If he can perform better against a solid Atlanta offensive line, then that’ll certainly help the Cardinals actually stop something that the opposition is doing.

The problem is that the Cardinals are simply outmatched in some facets. For example, Bijan Robinson will be going up against an Arizona run defense that just allowed someone named Jawhar Jordan to rush for 100 yards in less than a full game. Kyle Pitts, who was a monster on Thursday night, will be battling a defense that has allowed the eighth-most production to tight ends. Then, there’s Drake London, who could make his return from injury against a secondary that has health issues and can’t stop anything as a result.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Unless the Cardinals somehow make some defensive strides, they’ll have to win in a shootout against the Falcons. Recent results say that this is unlikely because they haven’t been able to score more than 20 points against each of their previous two opponents. However, digging deeper reveals that the Cardinals could have an offensive explosion in this game.

The Cardinals haven’t eclipsed 20 points in each of the past two games because they’ve battled the Texans and Rams, two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Falcons hardly have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They’re 20th in overall defense, so they’re not terrible, but they’re certainly not impenetrable for a backup quarterback. Jacoby Brissett has enjoyed many positive results against weaker foes this season, and this should be another one.

The one key for the Cardinals is getting some players back from injury on this side of the ball as well. Paris Johnson’s absence was colossal last week, so he’ll be needed against a quality Atlanta pass rush. It would be nice to have guard Evan Brown available as well; he was sorely missed last week, too. As for Marvin Harrison Jr., I personally don’t care. Michael Wilson has been a monster with Harrison out of the lineup. The Cardinals will need Wilson to thrive, given that the Falcons have the top defense against tight ends. Trey McBride won’t be shut down because he’s too good, but he won’t have his ceiling game either.

RECAP: It seems crazy to me that the Falcons are favored on the road in this matchup. Everyone thinks the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL because they’ve been blown out in consecutive weeks entering this game, but they’ve gone against two top-10 opponents in the Rams and Texans. The Rams were especially focused against them, coming off an embarrassing loss. People are quick to forget that the Cardinals have been competitive in most of their games this season. They should be better defensively this week, so that will allow them to be competitive once again.

Another thing people are forgetting is that the Falcons tend to lay giant eggs off big wins. They’ve done that repeatedly this year because Raheem Morris is a terrible head coach, so there’s no reason to believe that this won’t happen again. The Falcons just had a huge victory on national TV, and now they have to play some stupid, non-divisional 3-11 team. Why would they care about battling the Cardinals?

I like the Cardinals in this game, as we’re getting a team with favorable spread and spot dynamics. How much I end up betting on the Cardinals will depend on who exactly is available for them in this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re hoping for a better injury report than last week for the Cardinals, especially given that this is such an obvious fade spot for the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals are once again missing lots of personnel – including Paris Johnson – to make me feel super confident in them. However, I still like them in a great fade spot of the Falcons, who saw Drake London suffer a setback in practice on Friday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Drake London is expected to play, but there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent. I still love Arizona.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Drake London will play, but that hasn’t bothered the sharps. The pro money has come in on the Cardinals. Most of the +3 lines are gone, but you can still get +3 -114 at Bookmaker and +3 -118 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Falcons are coming off an upset win on national TV, while the Cardinals were just embarrassed twice.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.

Computer Model: Falcons -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 51% (80,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Cardinals are 52-36 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Falcons PK.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.