NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2025): 7-9 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2025): 9-7 (+$1,790)
2025 NFL Picks: 112-103-5 (+$1,055)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 21, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe, but the Cardinals were once 12th in defense this year. This is not some misleading stat, like that’s where they were after one week of football. They ranked as such at the end of October, but things have fallen apart for them. They haven’t been able to stop anyone lately. Even Houston scored 40 points against them.

Injuries have hurt the Cardinals, but perhaps they’ll get some players back from injury. Walter Nolen, for example, could help. Nolen returned from injury last week and wasn’t effective at less than 100 percent, but he’s been a dominant force despite being a rookie. If he can perform better against a solid Atlanta offensive line, then that’ll certainly help the Cardinals actually stop something that the opposition is doing.

The problem is that the Cardinals are simply outmatched in some facets. For example, Bijan Robinson will be going up against an Arizona run defense that just allowed someone named Jawhar Jordan to rush for 100 yards in less than a full game. Kyle Pitts, who was a monster on Thursday night, will be battling a defense that has allowed the eighth-most production to tight ends. Then, there’s Drake London, who could make his return from injury against a secondary that has health issues and can’t stop anything as a result.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Unless the Cardinals somehow make some defensive strides, they’ll have to win in a shootout against the Falcons. Recent results say that this is unlikely because they haven’t been able to score more than 20 points against each of their previous two opponents. However, digging deeper reveals that the Cardinals could have an offensive explosion in this game.

The Cardinals haven’t eclipsed 20 points in each of the past two games because they’ve battled the Texans and Rams, two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Falcons hardly have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They’re 20th in overall defense, so they’re not terrible, but they’re certainly not impenetrable for a backup quarterback. Jacoby Brissett has enjoyed many positive results against weaker foes this season, and this should be another one.

The one key for the Cardinals is getting some players back from injury on this side of the ball as well. Paris Johnson’s absence was colossal last week, so he’ll be needed against a quality Atlanta pass rush. It would be nice to have guard Evan Brown available as well; he was sorely missed last week, too. As for Marvin Harrison Jr., I personally don’t care. Michael Wilson has been a monster with Harrison out of the lineup. The Cardinals will need Wilson to thrive, given that the Falcons have the top defense against tight ends. Trey McBride won’t be shut down because he’s too good, but he won’t have his ceiling game either.

RECAP: It seems crazy to me that the Falcons are favored on the road in this matchup. Everyone thinks the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL because they’ve been blown out in consecutive weeks entering this game, but they’ve gone against two top-10 opponents in the Rams and Texans. The Rams were especially focused against them, coming off an embarrassing loss. People are quick to forget that the Cardinals have been competitive in most of their games this season. They should be better defensively this week, so that will allow them to be competitive once again.

Another thing people are forgetting is that the Falcons tend to lay giant eggs off big wins. They’ve done that repeatedly this year because Raheem Morris is a terrible head coach, so there’s no reason to believe that this won’t happen again. The Falcons just had a huge victory on national TV, and now they have to play some stupid, non-divisional 3-11 team. Why would they care about battling the Cardinals?

I like the Cardinals in this game, as we’re getting a team with favorable spread and spot dynamics. How much I end up betting on the Cardinals will depend on who exactly is available for them in this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’re hoping for a better injury report than last week for the Cardinals, especially given that this is such an obvious fade spot for the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals are once again missing lots of personnel – including Paris Johnson – to make me feel super confident in them. However, I still like them in a great fade spot of the Falcons, who saw Drake London suffer a setback in practice on Friday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Drake London is expected to play, but there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent. I still love Arizona.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Drake London will play, but that hasn’t bothered the sharps. The pro money has come in on the Cardinals. Most of the +3 lines are gone, but you can still get +3 -114 at Bookmaker and +3 -118 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Falcons are coming off an upset win on national TV, while the Cardinals were just embarrassed twice.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.

Computer Model: Falcons -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 51% (80,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 52-36 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Falcons PK.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars were a team I didn’t believe in earlier in the season. Trevor Lawrence wasn’t playing all that well, and there were some flaws with the receivers. That has all changed in the wake of the Jakobi Meyers trade. Getting Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange back from injury helped, but Meyers has been the ultra-reliable receiver Lawrence has never had in his pro career. Lawrence, as a result, has played his best football.

This is a tough matchup for Lawrence, but certainly one that he can overcome. We just saw the Packers score 26 points, which would have been a higher number had Christian Watson not suffered an injury. The Broncos generate more sacks than any NFL team, but if the opposition can block well, then the Broncos don’t have a supreme advantage in the trenches. Lawrence has been well protected, and given that he has so many weapons at his disposal, it’ll be difficult for the Broncos to deal with all of them.

The Broncos also aren’t great against the run. They’re 10th in that department, so they’re not bad either, but we just saw that Josh Jacobs had a solid performance as both a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield. Travis Etienne, who is having a great season, should be able to emulate what Jacobs did.

DENVER OFFENSE: The offense hasn’t been the only thing to improve for the Jaguars. Their defense has been stellar recently as well, now ranking eighth in EPA. That’s actually higher than Denver’s defense. If you were to ask any casual fan which defense between Jacksonvlle and Denver’s would be ranked higher this week, every one of them would say the Broncos, but that’s not true.

Jacksonville’s defense has improved tremendously when it comes to stopping the run. The Jaguars are third against the rush, so R.J. Harvey will have a far tougher matchup than what he experienced recently otherwise.

The Jaguars also bring massive amounts of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This shouldn’t be too much of a problem for the Broncos because they have a stout offensive line. Also, the primary weakness of Jacksonville’s defense is its inability to defend tight ends, so it would be in the Broncos’ best interest to give Evan Engram as many snaps as possible against his former team.

RECAP: I don’t agree with this spread. This is nothing new because I’ve been down on the Broncos all year, but tell me how I can be excited about them when their two marquee wins came against the Chiefs, who barely beat anyone following that game, and the Packers, who lost Christian Watson and Micah Parsons within a span of a few minutes. Otherwise, the Broncos have beaten crap opponents by the bare minimum. Jacksonville’s blowout win over the Chargers is more impressive than anything the Broncos have done all year.

The Jaguars are giving us the better quarterback, running back, receiver corps, and defense. So, why are the Broncos favored again? Because of their close wins against the Raiders, Jets, Giants, and Titans?

I like the Jaguars here, and not just because they’re the better team. They also have a greater sense of urgency. They’ll be playing for the divisional title, while the Broncos are one full game ahead of the Patriots. Even if they lose this week, and the Patriots upset the Ravens, they’ll still have the No. 1 seed.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As usual, Andy and I had an argument about the Broncos during our 4-hour livestream discussing the Week 16 NFL Picks:

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread rose to -3.5, so I was expecting to see something unexpected on the injury report. There was nothing. The sharps are on the Broncos, so this selection looks less appealing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still planning on betting the Jaguars, but there’s sharp action on the Broncos.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the sharps were on the Broncos, but at -3 and not -3.5. The best line is +3.5 -115 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Jaguars have more to play for this week.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -2.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Slight action on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 60% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Jaguars are 71-116 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Broncos -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 53 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The reports of the Steelers’ demise has been greatly exaggerated. When the Steelers got blown out by the Bills in embarrassing fashion, there were chants for the owner to fire Mike Tomlin. Since that game, Pittsburgh beat Baltimore and blew out the Dolphins.

Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal in both games. He resembled his former MVP self against the Ravens with constant deep passes to DK Metcalf, and he misfired on just four occasions against the Dolphins. Rodgers should continue to perform well, given the matchup. The Lions have struggled to defend the pass all season, but they’ve been far worse against it lately.

The Lions haven’t been great against the run recently either, as their entire defense has been ravaged by injury. The Steelers seemed to figure out that Kenneth Gainwell is the best option for them out of the backfield, so perhaps they’ll continue to lean on him heavily.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions have struggled defensively, their offense has put together some tremendous performances recently. They threw all over the Cowboys with ease, while they engineered many scoring drives in the opening half against the Rams before getting drowned by the best team in football following halftime.

The Steelers have shown signs of improvement on defense recently, but they could easily take a step backward against Detroit’s explosive offense, especially if T.J. Watt isn’t available. Watt was not missed against the Dolphins, but the Steelers are now battling a real team, but rather a sissy Miami squad that is afraid of cold weather.

Speaking of the Dolphins, the one thing they did well offensively against the Steelers was run the ball, but they couldn’t stick with it because of the constant deficit. This doesn’t bode well against the explosive Lions. Jahmyr Gibbs figures to have a big day.

RECAP: We faded the Lions for a big play last week because we knew that they haven’t been able to play up to their competition. They’re now 1-5 against teams in Groups A or B, and their one win came against the injury-ridden Ravens.

While the Steelers have been playing better football lately, they certainly do not qualify as a top-tier team, especially if Watt is sidelined. It’s hard to trust their defense without Watt, and the Steelers will pay the price for not having their All-Pro edge rusher in this troublesome matchup.

Furthermore, the Steelers are playing on a short week. While this would be fine if they had to go up against the Browns or another bottom-feeder opponent, they need all the time they can get to build a game plan against the Lions. Having played on Monday, the Steelers are in a disadvantage in this game, and I wouldn’t mind taking advantage of that.

This is a huge play for me, if you couldn’t tell. We just saw the Steelers at their best against a poor opponent. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll play just as well just six days later against a far better foe. And if you’re worried about the Steelers covering as a big underdog, they’re just 3-4 against the spread (1-3 ATS since 2021) as a road dog of seven or more following a win under Mike Tomlin, so this is not a favorable spot for them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No T.J. Watt in practice Wednesday. As long as Watt doesn’t make a miraculous return to the lineup, the Lions will be my top play.

SATURDAY NOTES: T.J. Watt is out, as expected. But that’s not all. The Steelers will be missing Nick Herbig, meaning their top two pressure players will be sidelined. The Lions look great with matchup and spot edges. I plan on betting the -20.5 alt line.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m angry with myself right now. I said on the final thoughts video that I wanted to lock in the Lions after recording, but I had to be a guest on another show right after that, and then I was exhausted and passed out. Now, the line is -7.5, but -7 -125 is still available at BetMGM and Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Lions at -7, but not -7.5. We can still get -7 -125 at BetMGM, so we’ll be betting that because I’m kicking myself for not locking in the -7 on Saturday night. I’m also betting the -20.5 +400 alt line at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -6.

Computer Model: Lions -6.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 59% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Tomlin is 66-39 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 139-104 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 33-27 ATS as an underdog.

Dan Campbell is 15-5 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Lions -6.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans obviously have a great defense, but their offense has been lackluster by comparison. That changed last week when Houston hung 40 on the Cardinals. Granted, the Cardinals have a banged-up defense, but no one expected that point total for Houston, even against Arizona.

The Texans have yet another easy matchup this week. The Raiders faced a struggling Philadelphia offense and had no answer for what the Eagles were doing, even though the Eagles were coming off a tough overtime game on short rest. Jalen Hurts was terrific in a bounce-back effort, particularly when targeting Dallas Goedert.

The Raiders have been woeful against tight ends, so a strong performance from Dalton Schultz shouldn’t surprise anyone. Of course, the Texans have other ways to score. Nico Collins is coming off a big game and should have a repeat performance. The Texans also figure to run well, no matter who’s playing at running back between Woody Marks and Jawhar Jordan.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: As bad as the Raiders’ defense last week, their offense played far worse. They mustered only 75 net yards of offense and averaged a laughable 1.7 yards per play. In context, the team with the next-lowest yards per play in Week 15 was the Browns with 3.4.

It’s hard to imagine the Raiders improving if Geno Smith is sidelined again. I’m no believer that Smith is a top-10 NFL quarterback, which is something that ESPN DEI hire Mina Kimes said this offseason, but it’s obvious that he’s far better than Kenny Pickett, who was anemic. Now, to be fair, Pickett had some atrocious blocking in front of him. Things might be better from that perspective if Kolton Miller, the team’s best blocker by a mile, returns from a long hiatus. But there’s no telling if that’ll happen, and even if that does occur, we don’t know if Miller will be 100 percent in his first game back from injury.

With Smith or Pickett constantly under siege, the Raiders won’t move the ball much. They won’t get anything out of their ground attack either, given that Ashton Jeanty is constantly hit in the backfield.

RECAP: If Pickett starts again, it’s going to be difficult not to fade the Raiders, especially if Miller is out as well. Now, if we get Smith and Miller on the field, I wouldn’t want any part of the Texans at this price because the Raiders could play harder for pride after getting shut out.

Also, the Texans are in a poor scheduling spot. They’ve won many consecutive games, and after this “easy” game, they have to take on the 10-4 Chargers and the rival Colts. Given that this is their easiest remaining game of the season, they could easily have a letdown spot, allowing the Raiders to cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a good chance that both Geno Smith and Kolton Miller return to the lineup. In that case, this would definitely be Raiders or nothing for me.

SATURDAY NOTES: Geno Smith is back. There was some hope that Kolton Miller would play as well, but he’ll be sidelined. The Raiders won’t have any protection against Houston’s elite defense, which is a disaster. I’m switching my pick to the Texans.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still nothing here. I was hoping Kolton Miller would be back, but that is not the case.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Woody Marks is out, so Houston’s offense will be a bit less explosive. This is still a 50-50 game to me, and the sharps as well. The best line is -14 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Texans have the 10-4 Chargers and rival Colts after this game. The Raiders were just shut out.

The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -11.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -12.5.

Computer Model: Texans -11.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Equal action for a while, then late money on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 70% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Raiders are 20-15 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Opening Line: Texans -11.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 14, including Ryan Flournoy over receiving yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots’ offensive performance last week was puzzling. The team ran so well against the Bills, both with Drake Maye and TreVeyon Henderson. They didn’t seem to run enough with Henderson following his 65-yard touchdown, but the biggest shock was that Maye seemingly forget that he can scramble. Maye ran so much in the first half, but barely moved in the fourth quarter.

Perhaps the Patriots will notice this and rectify this blunder. The problem is that unlike the Bills, the Ravens don’t surrender much on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. The Ravens give up just the seventh-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks, so Maye won’t be able to run as much. And if last week is any indication, Maye won’t have much success aerially either. Baltimore has gotten some defensive players back from injury, so Maye could struggle to generate much passing yardage, as his offensive line will be tested for the third time without Will Campbell.

As far as Henderson is concerned, the Patriots shouldn’t expect much from him either. The Ravens are sixth against the run, so Henderson won’t be running for huge gains like he did versus Buffalo.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens were terrific defensively last week. If they can explode on this side of the ball, they’ll be incredibly difficult to beat come January.

The problem is that the Ravens continued to be lethargic offensively. They scored 24 points, but seven came off a pick-six, so they notched only 17 points versus Cincinnati’s poor defense. That doesn’t give the Ravens much hope for beating a better New England defense. The Patriots, ranked 11th in defense over the past two months, can generate pressure on the quarterback, which is not something Lamar Jackson will want to hear because Ronnie Stanley got banged up last week. New England can lock down Zay Flowers, forcing Jackson to look elsewhere.

The Patriots happen to be worse against the run than the pass because of injuries on the defensive line. This would have been very bullish for the Ravens last year, but Derrick Henry hasn’t been nearly as dominant this season.

RECAP: It’s hard to know which Ravens team we’ll see. Will we see the one that dominated the Bengals last week, or the one that embarrassed itself versus the Steelers in the prior game? As someone who has some Ravens futures, I’d like to think that their defense will perform like it did versus Cincinnati, but the Bengals may have been going through the motions after losing a thriller in Buffalo, causing them to basically be eliminated from the playoffs.

I can get behind Baltimore’s defense improving because of better health, but I still worry about the offense. Jackson has looked a bit healthier each week, but still doesn’t seem quite right. However, he could get back to 100 percent at any point, which would make him a force once more, especially against a defense that doesn’t defend mobile quarterbacks very well.

I haven’t been able to read the Ravens well in the past month or so. Thus, I’ll lay off of this game. For office pool purposes, I’ll lean toward the Ravens because the Patriots haven’t battled too many tough opponents this year, but New England could certainly pull the upset if Jackson continues to be unimpressive.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens have quite a few defenders on the injury report, plus Ronnie Stanley. This is almost feeling like earlier in the year when Ravens players were going down like flies. We’ll see if those players remain on the injury report later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: There were some injury concerns for the Ravens earlier in the week, but every player in question will play. Conversely, the Patriots will miss Robert Spillane, who has been a great player for them in the middle of their defense. The Patriots have a few other key players who are questionable as well, mostly in the front seven. Remember, Milton Williams has been missing, so if the Patriots have some of these players sidelined, they could have stacked injuries and won’t be able to keep the Ravens in check.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps pounded the Ravens at -3, bringing this line to -3.5. The public, meanwhile, is all over the Patriots.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a classic public versus sharps game. The public loves the Patriots. The sharps love the Ravens. If you want to shadow the sharps, the best line is -3.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -2.

Computer Model: Ravens -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

The Patriots are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on New England: 83% (144,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Chance of snow, 34 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Indiana, where tonight the San Francisco Giants take on the Indiana Horseshoes. Guys, I heard that there’s an open competition for the Colts quarterback after they got some grandpa named River Phillips started last week. I’m going to try out before the game and become a famous quarterback so that girls will automatically talk to me without me going up to them, so I don’t get into trouble with Mother who says I’m not allowed to talk to girls, but she never said anything about them talking to me. But when we play my Philadelphia Eagles, I’ll lose on purpose to become a double agent!

Emmitt: Thanks, Asian. I do not knowed what you meaned by double Asian, but it reminded me of the old commercial with gum where there were twin because it was double mint. But this greatly upset me because it false advertisementing. I thought if I chew this gum then I gonna have a twin pop out of me like in commercial, but he lie and I do not has a twin after all this time, unless he long losted twin. Maybe his name Emmitt Smith Jr. III.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, I said double agent, not double Asian. I don’t even know what an Asian is. But I would never lose to my Philadelphia Eagles, even if they paid me a billion dollars or gave me a billion Nick Foles bobbleheads. Not only would I be a traitor, but I’d lose all respect from Mother and New Daddy. Isn’t that right, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Meh.

Tollefson: Kevin, I’m ashamed of you. First of all, how do you not know what Asians are? I travel to Asian countries all the time to acquire female slaves to clean and cook naked for me. Second, everyone knows the whole purpose of being a starting quarterback in the NFL is to be able to sneak a peak under the cheerleaders’ skirts. Who cares if you win or lose? You just gotta keep your eyes on the prize.

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, what in the world can you see under a girl’s skirt? You make it sound like there’s something special there like a Nick Foles bobblehead. Maybe our sideline reporter can tell us. Clarissa Thompkins, can you tell us what’s under your skirt? Is it a Nick Foles bobblehead?

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Nick Foles Bobblehead. It’s a surprise sideline report from me because the Colts will be starting three quarterbacks at the same time tonight: Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and someone named Kelvin Reilly. Who’s that? Back to you, Nick Foles Bobblehead.

Kevin Reilly: Clarissa, I know you never get my name correct and sometimes call me inanimate objects, but I wouldn’t mind if Mother named me Nick Foles Bobblehead. Maybe once I have my own money after becoming the third quarterback from the Colts, I’ll be able to go to the court house and change my name. But let’s get to our analyst. Minuet, do you think I’m a top-10 quarterback? And also, if you wouldn’t mind telling us what’s under your skirt, that would be appreciated.

Mina Kimes: Kevin, we need to talk. You don’t ever ask a woman what’s under her skirt, especially a woman who is an Asian female NFL analyst because no one on this planet is more oppressed than Asian female NFL analysts, which is why it is so complicated to compile a top-10 quarterback list. So, I need you to appreciate the great analysis I can provide when I give you any sort of quarterback ranking. For example, we know that Geno Smith is a top-one quarterback. But Kevin Reilly? He’s not even in my top three. He’s my No. 5 quarterback. And I can see you disagree, but keep in mind that you’re arguing with an Asian female NFL analyst, and no one is more correct about anything than an Asian female NFL analyst.

Kevin Reilly: I still don’t know what an Asian is. What is an Asian!?

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST ADMIT TO NOT KNOWING WHAT AN ASIAN IS!? HOW DARE YOU BE SO UNCULTURED!? MINA KIMES IS THE GREATEST FOOTBALL ANALYST ON THE PLANET, AND I SAY THIS AS SOMEONE WHO SHOWED MY BOOBS ONE TIME TO GET A DATE! AND HOW DARE YOU ASK A WOMAN WHAT IS UP HER SKIRT!? I FEEL SO OPPRESSED THAT I’LL TELL YOU WHAT’S UP MY SKIRT! IT’S A NICK FOLES BOBBLEHEAD DOLL THAT I PUT THERE FOR PLEASURE! IF I DIDN’T FEEL SO OPPRESSED, I NEVER WOULD HAVE TOLD YOU THAT!

Kevin Reilly: I knew it! I knew there were Nick Foles bobbleheads up girls’ skirts! But I still don’t know what an Asian is.

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about residents from different continents, Kevin. You already mentioned Asians, Kevin. They’re from Asia, Kevin. Let’s move on to North Americans, Kevin. They’re from North America, Kevin. Now we go down south to South Americans, Kevin, who are from South America, Kevin. How about we go overseas to see Europeans, Kevin, who are from Europe, Kevin? You’ll be racist if you neglect Africans, Kevin, who are from Africa, Kevin. We can then go deep south to say hi to the Antarcticans, Kevin, who are from Antarctica, Kevin. What about going down under, Kevin? I’m not referring to Australians, Kevin, but rather Kevin Reillys, Kevin, because Kevin has his head up his butt, Kevin.

Kevin Reilly: LAUGH ALL YOU WANT, CHARLES DAVIS, BUT I’M NOW A STARTING NFL QUARTERBACK, WHICH MEANS I CAN BOSS YOU AROUND AND ALSO LOOK UP CHEERLEADERS’ SKIRTS TO SEE WHICH NICK FOLES BOBBLEHEADS ARE HIDING THERE! We’ll be back right after this!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Anyone who enjoyed watching Philip Rivers play quarterback last week will have another opportunity. Shane Steichen announced that Rivers will make his second start versus the 49ers on Monday night.

Rivers nearly beat the Seahawks last week, but it’s not like he did very much. He mostly dinked and dunked when he wasn’t handing the ball off to Jonathan Taylor. He threw a touchdown pass, but the Colts averaged just 3.7 yards per play. Stopping this doesn’t seem very difficult as long as Taylor can be contained.

So, can the 49ers stop Taylor? That seems certain. Not to sound like an 8-ball, but it’s true. The 49ers are above average versus the run, and they’ll be able to play close to the line of scrimmage because they won’t have to defend any deep passes.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Anyone who watched Rivers last week noticed how pathetic Seattle’s offense was against the Colts. Indianapolis was missing its top two cornerbacks, and yet the Seahawks just ran into the teeth of the defense, as Kenneth Walker mustered nothing but 2-yard gains. Klint Kubiak, as usual, failed to adjust.

Kyle Shanahan is a master schemer and will notice this liability. He’ll have Brock Purdy attack these cornerbacks. He’ll also notice that the Colts are weak over the middle of the field. Indianapolis surrenders the ninth-most production to tight ends, so George Kittle figures to have a big game.

Christian McCaffrey, meanwhile, won’t have much success on the ground, especially given that DeForest Buckner is expected to return to action. However, he should be a force as a receiver out of the backfield against Indianapolis’ linebackers.

RECAP: The Colts nearly beat the Seahawks last week, but it shouldn’t have been close. Indianapolis’ 3.7 yards per play was the smallest such figure on the week by any team, save for the Browns’ 3.4 and the Raiders’ 1.8. There’s no way the Colts will win many games with Rivers. The only reason the Seattle game was close was because the Seahawks didn’t show up, and Kubiak’s game plan was asinine.

The 49ers are very well coached as far as scheming and preparation are concerned, so they’ll have all the answers for Rivers, especially after being able to see last week’s game film. The 49ers’ defense isn’t as good as Seattle’s, but it’s not like a lot is needed to stop a Rivers-led offense.

The only concern I have with the 49ers is that they could be caught looking ahead. Following this “easy” game, they have to battle the 10-4 Bears and 11-3 Seahawks. They’ll have less preparation time than usual for the Chicago game, so this could be a flat spot for San Francisco even though this is a national TV affair.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still concerned about this spot for the 49ers. They could play down to the Colts, who could hang around and potentially steal a win. I don’t see myself betting this game unless there’s something unexpected on the injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: DeForest Buckner has practiced fully twice this week, so he should finally be back in the lineup. Sauce Gardner, meanwhile, has yet to practice. I still think the 49ers are the play, but I don’t feel confident in this pick at all.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has dropped to -5.5, but that’s not enough to get me to bet the 49ers in a poor spot for them.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a 33-percent profit boost for same-game parlays. We’re going with Christian McCaffrey under 63.5 rushing yards, George Kittle over 67.5 receiving yards, and Tyler Warren over 36.5 receiving yards. This $25 parlay pays $166.25.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Bernhard Raimann is out, but that hasn’t stopped the sharps from pounding the Colts. They’ve bet them all the way down from +6 to +4. The best line now for the 49ers is -4 -106 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The 49ers battle the 10-4 Bears and 11-3 Seahawks after this game.

The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Decent lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 63% (185,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

49ers are 45-33 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -5.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.