2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Packers at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 21-43-1 heading into Week 15.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers -12.5

Lions +6

Bengals +2.5

Chargers +6

Cowboys -5.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots +3

Texans -14

Vikings -2.5

Eagles -6.5

Bills -8.5

Between this and SNAP benefits/fraud, there are going to be many hungry people in this final month of football.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Sunday’s game against the Broncos was a disaster for the Packers. They lost key players on both sides of the ball. Micah Parsons was the best of the bunch, but before he was knocked out for the season, Zach Tom and Christian Watson were also injured.

Watson’s absence was huge. Already down Tucker Kraft, “No Cookie” Jordan Love was really leaning on Watson, which was the case last season as well. Watson’s absence was truly felt last year, and that was the case against the Broncos. Chicago doesn’t have as good of a defense as Denver, but the Bears will be able to limit the Packers if Watson is sidelined. Perhaps Matthew Golden will be able to step up, but he hasn’t shown us much in his rookie season.

Now dealing with injured receivers, Love will want to depend on Josh Jacobs. The Bears were weaker against the run earlier in the season when they were missing several linebackers, but they’ve improved in that area.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: As painful as the Watson and Tom injuries were, Parsons’ absence against Denver was the primary deciding factor in the game. Of the 264 pressures the Packers have produced this season, Parsons has 74 of them. No other Packer has notched more than 47 pressures. The Packers are also missing Devonte Wyatt and his 22 pressures.

In other words, Green Bay’s ability to generate quarterback pressure will be severely diminished. The Bears have a stout offensive line that already shielded Caleb Williams well, and now the Packers won’t be able to rattle Williams at all. Williams will be able to have all the time he needs to shred Green Bay’s secondary.

Parsons’ absence will also impact the rush defense. Parsons is a much better pass rusher than a run defender, but he still holds up very well in ground support. The Packers were 11th against the run, and now they’ll be worse. The Bears run block better than all but two teams in the NFL, so they’ll be able to blast open huge holes for D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.

RECAP: It’s crazy that the Packers are favored in this game. I’d understand it if Parsons and Watson were healthy, but they’re not. Watson’s absence limits the offense severely, while Parsons’ injury transforms Green Bay’s top-10 defense into a pedestrian unit.

The Bears are arguably better on both sides of the ball in the wake of the Green Bay injuries. I don’t fully trust Williams, but he’s going to have elite protection. Otherwise, Chicago is better than Green Bay in most facets. And yet, we’re getting a point-and-a-half with the Bears.

This is going to be a decent-sized play on Chicago. We’ll have to see if Watson and Tom return from being injured, so let’s make sure they’re both out once the injury reports are released.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Zach Tom hasn’t practiced yet, and neither has Josh Jacobs. Christian Watson returned to practice Wednesday, but only on a limited basis. The final injury report will be huge in determining how much I like the Bears.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Packers are going to be missing many players. Micah Parsons is obviously gone. Right tackle Zach Tom didn’t practice all week, while his backup, Darian Kinnard, is questionable with all limited practice. Excellent safety Evan Williams didn’t practice all week. Josh Jacobs had DNPs all week. Christian Watson may play after two limited practices, but he could be knocked out after one hit. The Bears won’t have Rome Odunze, but they’re in much better shape.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian Watson is active, but there’s no telling how limited he’ll be. The sharps have been betting the Bears all week. The best line is Chicago -1 -110 at BetMGM. There’s a 20-percent profit boost there, up to $200.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Bears -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Plenty of money on the Bears early, but equal action late.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 58% (150,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

History: Packers have won 21 of the last 24 meetings.

Packers are 69-45 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Matt LaFleur is 62-47 ATS in the regular season.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Clear, 27 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.