2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Buccaneers at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers blew a big lead to the Falcons and lost Thursday night, but if there was one positive to take away from the game, it was that Mike Evans returned from injury and looked dominant. Evans’ absence made the Buccaneers’ offense less explosive, and his presence will continue to change that, especially with Baker Mayfield returning to full health.

Mayfield has been banged up, but perhaps the mini-bye will help his health. The matchup could make him look better as well. The Panthers struggle to get to the quarterback and defend the pass. Tyler Shough just shredded them twice in a span of a few weeks, so a healthier Mayfield with an energized receiver corps should fare well in this matchup.

Speaking of healthier players, Bucky Irving has returned to form since his injury. Irving also has a phenomenal matchup; the Panthers are 25th against the run.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: In past years, I could say that the Buccaneers would easily have the best run defense in this matchup. They’ve had Vita Vea clogging the interior, after all. This season is different, however, as Vea has not been himself because of a lingering back injury. As a result, the Buccaneers are 18th against the run.

This is huge news for the Panthers, who were swept by the Saints because they couldn’t run on their top-10 ground defense. If the Buccaneers continue to play at a below-average rate against the run, the Panthers will be able to keep the chains moving with their two talented backs.

Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard ripping off big runs will obviously aid Bryce Young, who needs to recover from last week’s dreadful performance. The Buccaneers tend to generate lots of quarterback pressure, and the Panthers don’t have the sort of talented tight end the Falcons possess to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s biggest weakness.

RECAP: I don’t have much interest in betting this game. I think this game is priced perfectly, and there are obviously no motivational factors in play. I would consider the Buccaneers as a potential wager if I knew Mayfield were 100 percent, but his health is an issue. Perhaps he’ll be much better after having more time off, but that’s just speculation.

I’m going to pencil in the Buccaneers as an office pool play, but the most likely result of this game is Tampa Bay winning by three, which is exactly what the spread is.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing new to add to this game. I’m still leaning toward the Buccaneers, but as a non-wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Buccaneers somehow don’t have anyone on their injury report. The Panthers, meanwhile, could be missing their left tackle. Ikem Ekwonu is questionable, but barely practiced this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Panthers won’t have left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, but that won’t get me to back the Panthers. The sharps haven’t bet this game either. The best line is Tampa Bay -3 +100 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 52% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Buccaneers have won 12 the last 14 meetings.

Road Team is 151-103 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 58 degrees. Light wind.