2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Steelers at Lions

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The reports of the Steelers’ demise has been greatly exaggerated. When the Steelers got blown out by the Bills in embarrassing fashion, there were chants for the owner to fire Mike Tomlin. Since that game, Pittsburgh beat Baltimore and blew out the Dolphins.

Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal in both games. He resembled his former MVP self against the Ravens with constant deep passes to DK Metcalf, and he misfired on just four occasions against the Dolphins. Rodgers should continue to perform well, given the matchup. The Lions have struggled to defend the pass all season, but they’ve been far worse against it lately.

The Lions haven’t been great against the run recently either, as their entire defense has been ravaged by injury. The Steelers seemed to figure out that Kenneth Gainwell is the best option for them out of the backfield, so perhaps they’ll continue to lean on him heavily.

DETROIT OFFENSE: While the Lions have struggled defensively, their offense has put together some tremendous performances recently. They threw all over the Cowboys with ease, while they engineered many scoring drives in the opening half against the Rams before getting drowned by the best team in football following halftime.

The Steelers have shown signs of improvement on defense recently, but they could easily take a step backward against Detroit’s explosive offense, especially if T.J. Watt isn’t available. Watt was not missed against the Dolphins, but the Steelers are now battling a real team, but rather a sissy Miami squad that is afraid of cold weather.

Speaking of the Dolphins, the one thing they did well offensively against the Steelers was run the ball, but they couldn’t stick with it because of the constant deficit. This doesn’t bode well against the explosive Lions. Jahmyr Gibbs figures to have a big day.

RECAP: We faded the Lions for a big play last week because we knew that they haven’t been able to play up to their competition. They’re now 1-5 against teams in Groups A or B, and their one win came against the injury-ridden Ravens.

While the Steelers have been playing better football lately, they certainly do not qualify as a top-tier team, especially if Watt is sidelined. It’s hard to trust their defense without Watt, and the Steelers will pay the price for not having their All-Pro edge rusher in this troublesome matchup.

Furthermore, the Steelers are playing on a short week. While this would be fine if they had to go up against the Browns or another bottom-feeder opponent, they need all the time they can get to build a game plan against the Lions. Having played on Monday, the Steelers are in a disadvantage in this game, and I wouldn’t mind taking advantage of that.

This is a huge play for me, if you couldn’t tell. We just saw the Steelers at their best against a poor opponent. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll play just as well just six days later against a far better foe. And if you’re worried about the Steelers covering as a big underdog, they’re just 3-4 against the spread (1-3 ATS since 2021) as a road dog of seven or more following a win under Mike Tomlin, so this is not a favorable spot for them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No T.J. Watt in practice Wednesday. As long as Watt doesn’t make a miraculous return to the lineup, the Lions will be my top play.

SATURDAY NOTES: T.J. Watt is out, as expected. But that’s not all. The Steelers will be missing Nick Herbig, meaning their top two pressure players will be sidelined. The Lions look great with matchup and spot edges. I plan on betting the -20.5 alt line.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m angry with myself right now. I said on the final thoughts video that I wanted to lock in the Lions after recording, but I had to be a guest on another show right after that, and then I was exhausted and passed out. Now, the line is -7.5, but -7 -125 is still available at BetMGM and Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Lions at -7, but not -7.5. We can still get -7 -125 at BetMGM, so we’ll be betting that because I’m kicking myself for not locking in the -7 on Saturday night. I’m also betting the -20.5 +400 alt line at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are the better team coming off a loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -6.

Computer Model: Lions -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 59% (107,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Mike Tomlin is 66-39 ATS as an underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 139-104 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 33-27 ATS as an underdog.

Dan Campbell is 15-5 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Opening Line: Lions -6.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.