2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Jets at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s currently impossible to handicap this game because we don’t know which quarterback the Jets will start. It could be any of the three between Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook. Thankfully, Aaron Glenn said he’ll provide us with an update on Wednesday, so we may know what’s happening by the time the Thursday Thoughts are posted.

There’s obviously a big talent discrepancy between the former two quarterbacks and Cook, who was just as bad as anticipated last week. Cook is an athletic player, but has no pro-level talent. He couldn’t sustain drives against the Jaguars. While Jacksonville has the eighth-ranked defense, the Saints aren’t too far behind, coming in at No. 10 in defensive EPA. The Saints aren’t as good against the pass compared to the run, but it’s not like they’ll draw a tough matchup if they have to go against Cook. They could struggle a bit against Taylor, however.

The Saints, by the way, are terrific against the rush. They force many negative runs and shouldn’t have an issue bottling up Breece Hall. This will obviously be easier if Cook is under center, given that they won’t have to worry about being burned on downfield throws.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: If Cook gets the nod, he won’t be the only rookie quarterback in this game, as Tyler Shough will take the field once more. Shough had a rough start to his career in a blowout loss to the Rams, but has improved steadily ever since. He’s had some terrific second halves in upset victories.

Shough will be favored for the second time, and I’m sure he’ll be hoping that it’ll go better than the first instance, which was a home loss to the Falcons. Shough appears to have a good matchup in this game, as the Jets were down numerous cornerbacks last week. This allowed Trevor Lawrence to torch the Jets and win us tons of money in player prop bets. Shough obviously won’t have the same success as Lawrence, but he’ll be able to lead the Saints on numerous scoring drives.

The Jets have been weak to the run as well. The Saints have gone through a number of running backs due to injury, but perhaps Alvin Kamara will finally be able to return. If not, it might be Devin Neal, who got hurt last week, or perhaps Audric Estime, who had a great screen reception on the final drive versus the Panthers.

RECAP: We bet the Saints last week, but they were home underdogs. They are now favored by four or 4.5 points, which is quite the dynamic change. The last time they were favored by more than a field goal was Week 14 of last year with Derek Carr. They beat the Giants, but failed to cover as 5.5-point favorites, winning just 14-11. The last time they covered as favorites of more than a field goal was in Week 1 of 2024 in a blowout against Carolina.

If the Jets start Taylor or Fields, this will be a no-brainer. Obviously, the spread will fall, but I’m not sure it’ll go below New Orleans -3 because then the books will put themselves at risk of being middled. If it’s Cook once again, I’ll want to fade the Jets, but can’t really do so with the Saints being favored like this. Cook is not an NFL passer, but he might be able to scramble around a bit and make some things happen to cover this high spread.

Stay tuned later in the week. I’ll have an update on Thursday morning, as usual, so hopefully we have some clarity on the situation by then.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We did not get clarity from Aaron Glenn, after all. However, both Tyrod Taylor and Justin Fields practiced Wednesday, albeit in limited participation. It looks like Brady Cook will not be starting this game, but anything is possible at this point.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brady Cook will start this game, which automatically makes the Saints the play. The question is how many units we’ll be betting on them. I hate the idea of laying nearly a touchdown with a team that doesn’t score very much, but the Saints might be worth a small bet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on the Saints all the way up to -6, but not at -6.5 (yet). The best line is -6.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.5.

Computer Model: Saints -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 56% (65,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.