2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Rams at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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Week 15 Analysis: We had another great week overall. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jaguars, 5 units (win): What a beautiful game. Not only did we win five units on the side, we also won nearly seven more units on Trevor Lawrence passing yard props.

Chiefs, 3 units (loss): The Chiefs lost a massive number of players in this game to injury. I don’t think it would have mattered, but it certainly didn’t help.

Seahawks, 5 units (loss): What a pathetic performance by the Seahawks. I guess they were looking ahead, but that doesn’t excuse their horrible offensive game plan, which was to fail to take advantage of an Indianapolis secondary missing both of its starting outside cornerbacks.

Rams, 3 units (win): It looked like the Rams weren’t going to cover when they were losing at halftime. Before long, they were up by double digits!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams were cruising their way to victory in the second half over the Lions when they suffered two potentially catastrophic injuries. Davante Adams pulled his hamstring running a deep route, and then Puka Nacua suffered a leg injury. Nacua looks to be OK, but Adams could miss some time. He may be ready for the playoffs – the opening-round bye would certainly help – but he definitely won’t be playing in this game.

Matthew Stafford had his way with the Seahawks early in the first meeting. He engineered two early touchdown drives, but Seattle’s top-ranked defense put the clamps on him after that, limiting the Rams to just seven points the rest of the way. Adams not being available this time will make things even more difficult for the Rams, though Adams had just one measly receiving yard in that game.

The Seahawks are stout against wide receivers and running backs, so do the Rams just have no hope of moving the chains? No, and they can do so with their various tight ends. Stafford didn’t target his many tight ends all that much in the first meeting, but not having Adams could force Stafford in that direction. If so, that’ll be a good thing because the Seahawks surrender the fourth-most production to tight ends.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While Stafford struggled in the first meeting, that was nothing compared to what Sam Darnold endured. Darnold threw a whopping four interceptions. This was hardly a surprise because Darnold has a habit of coming up small in big moments, largely because he folds like a cheap suit under pressure.

And there will be plenty of pressure in this game. The Rams excel at smothering quarterbacks, so they’ll be able to hound Darnold all evening. They debacled him in the playoff game last year, and they did so again in the first meeting this season, so they’ll be able to do it again.

The Seahawks won’t get much out of their rushing attack either. The Rams are fifth against the run, and it’s not like the Seahawks have quality run blocking to overcome that. Kenneth Walker pathetically rushed for just two yards every time against the Colts, and the Rams have a better ground defense than Indianapolis.

RECAP: Has Darnold ever come through in a big game? He’s a guy who once said he saw ghosts against Bill Belichick in a Monday night game. He was blown out by the Lions in the finale last year, which was for the No. 1 seed, and he then went on to get blown out by the Rams. These very same Rams then beat him in the four-interception performance earlier this season.

I don’t see why things would be different this time. Is it because the Seahawks will be at home? Seattle has actually played better on the road under Mike Macdonald. Is it because the Seahawks will be out to get revenge? Revenge only applies when the other team won’t be motivated, but the Rams will certainly be up for this game because this contest is for the division.

I can’t find a reason why Darnold would suddenly overcome his past demons. I like the Rams. I won’t go nuts with this game because I hate betting Thursday night games, but two units seems fine.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Rams won’t have Davante Adams available, but the Seahawks will be down Charles Cross, their best offensive lineman. The Rams win that exchange because they can utilize more two- and three-tight end sets, and the Seahawks are poor at defending tight ends.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a no-sweat bet up to $50. We’re going with Colby Parkinson over 38.5 receiving yards -110.

We’re going to DraftKings for our same-game parlay because they have a 30-percent boost. We’re going with Colby Parkinson over 39.5 receiving yards, Sam Darnold under 223.5 passing yards, and Kenneth Walker under 45.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $178.75. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps jumped on the Seahawks when they were home underdogs a couple of days ago, likely because it was obvious that Davante Adams would be ruled out. I still like the Rams for a small play. The best line is +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.

Computer Model: Seahawks -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Slight lean on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 62% (202,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.