2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Jaguars at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars were a team I didn’t believe in earlier in the season. Trevor Lawrence wasn’t playing all that well, and there were some flaws with the receivers. That has all changed in the wake of the Jakobi Meyers trade. Getting Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange back from injury helped, but Meyers has been the ultra-reliable receiver Lawrence has never had in his pro career. Lawrence, as a result, has played his best football.

This is a tough matchup for Lawrence, but certainly one that he can overcome. We just saw the Packers score 26 points, which would have been a higher number had Christian Watson not suffered an injury. The Broncos generate more sacks than any NFL team, but if the opposition can block well, then the Broncos don’t have a supreme advantage in the trenches. Lawrence has been well protected, and given that he has so many weapons at his disposal, it’ll be difficult for the Broncos to deal with all of them.

The Broncos also aren’t great against the run. They’re 10th in that department, so they’re not bad either, but we just saw that Josh Jacobs had a solid performance as both a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield. Travis Etienne, who is having a great season, should be able to emulate what Jacobs did.

DENVER OFFENSE: The offense hasn’t been the only thing to improve for the Jaguars. Their defense has been stellar recently as well, now ranking eighth in EPA. That’s actually higher than Denver’s defense. If you were to ask any casual fan which defense between Jacksonvlle and Denver’s would be ranked higher this week, every one of them would say the Broncos, but that’s not true.

Jacksonville’s defense has improved tremendously when it comes to stopping the run. The Jaguars are third against the rush, so R.J. Harvey will have a far tougher matchup than what he experienced recently otherwise.

The Jaguars also bring massive amounts of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This shouldn’t be too much of a problem for the Broncos because they have a stout offensive line. Also, the primary weakness of Jacksonville’s defense is its inability to defend tight ends, so it would be in the Broncos’ best interest to give Evan Engram as many snaps as possible against his former team.

RECAP: I don’t agree with this spread. This is nothing new because I’ve been down on the Broncos all year, but tell me how I can be excited about them when their two marquee wins came against the Chiefs, who barely beat anyone following that game, and the Packers, who lost Christian Watson and Micah Parsons within a span of a few minutes. Otherwise, the Broncos have beaten crap opponents by the bare minimum. Jacksonville’s blowout win over the Chargers is more impressive than anything the Broncos have done all year.

The Jaguars are giving us the better quarterback, running back, receiver corps, and defense. So, why are the Broncos favored again? Because of their close wins against the Raiders, Jets, Giants, and Titans?

I like the Jaguars here, and not just because they’re the better team. They also have a greater sense of urgency. They’ll be playing for the divisional title, while the Broncos are one full game ahead of the Patriots. Even if they lose this week, and the Patriots upset the Ravens, they’ll still have the No. 1 seed.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As usual, Andy and I had an argument about the Broncos during our 4-hour livestream discussing the Week 16 NFL Picks:

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread rose to -3.5, so I was expecting to see something unexpected on the injury report. There was nothing. The sharps are on the Broncos, so this selection looks less appealing.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still planning on betting the Jaguars, but there’s sharp action on the Broncos.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, the sharps were on the Broncos, but at -3 and not -3.5. The best line is +3.5 -115 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.

The Jaguars have more to play for this week.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -2.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Slight action on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 60% (95,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.