2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Vikings at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: J.J. McCarthy’s sudden improvement was a great call-out, if I do say so myself. I loved the Vikings two weeks ago until it was announced that Jayden Daniels would be starting because McCarthy would face a completely different caliber of defense than he had seen since returning from his bye. Every defense McCarthy had battled prior to Washington was ranked 14th or higher. The Redskins were 32nd, while the Cowboys were 27th, so McCarthy naturally improved and looked like a viable signal-caller of the future for the Vikings.

McCarthy has yet another easy matchup. I mentioned that the Redskins were 32nd, but they are now 31st because the Giants have displaced them as the worst defense in the NFL. The Giants had no answer for Marcus Mariota last week, so it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to contain an improving McCarthy and all of his talented wide receivers.

The Giants are especially porous against the run. They were trampled by Jacory Croskey-Merritt last week, so they won’t stand much of a chance against Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants posted quality stats last week, but only did so late when the Redskins were playing a prevent defense. It was troubling that the Giants couldn’t score any points in the early stages of the game, given that they were battling the now-31st-ranked defense.

If the Giants didn’t have much offensive success against the Redskins, how will they move the ball on the Vikings, who did a fairly solid job of keeping Dallas’ potent offense in check on Sunday night? It’s especially problematic for Jaxson Dart, who will be facing a ton of pressure from Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defense. Dart has been especially poor when pressured this year, and understandably so, given that he’s just a rookie. Compared to when he’s kept clean, Dart under pressure sees his completion percentage drop from 70.4 to a horrid 42.7, and his YPA falls from 7.2 to 5.9.

Speaking of Dart, he really didn’t run all that much against the Redskins last week. It’s unclear if the coaches are keeping him under wraps because they don’t want him to get concussed again, but if that’s the case, the Giants won’t be scoring very much because Dart isn’t much of a threat if he doesn’t utilize his best trait very often.

RECAP: We’ve been on the Vikings the past two weeks, and we’ll continue to tail them. People still have a negative perception of them because of all the games they lost since McCarthy’s return from injury. However, everyone seems to be ignoring that the quality of competition has declined recently, which would explain McCarthy’s improvement of play.

While I do like the Vikings to cover, I don’t think I’ll be betting this game. This isn’t the best spot for the Vikings because they’re coming off an upset victory over the Cowboys on national TV. They’re eliminated from playoff contention, so they don’t exactly have much to play for. I could see the Vikings having a bit of a letdown against a stupid 2-12 opponent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill missed Wednesday’s practice. It’s still early in the week, but if both of them are out, I’ll be switching my pick to the Giants.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings have some injuries that could flip my pick to the Giants. They’ll be missing Jonathan Greenard and Javon Hargrave, but more importantly, Christian Darrisaw is out and Brian O’Neill is questionable. If O’Neill is ruled out, the Vikings will have major blocking issues against the Giants’ strong pass rush.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brian O’Neill is active, so we don’t have a good play on either side. I’ll be on the Vikings for no units. The sharps took the Giants, but only at +3. The best line is Minnesota -2.5 -112 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Giants.

The Vikings are coming off an upset win on national TV.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -1.5.

Computer Model: Pick.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Easy money for the public.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 71% (79,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Vikings are 12-31 ATS in their road finale since 1980.

Opening Line: Vikings -1.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Chance of snow, 39 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.