2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Patriots at Ravens

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 14, including Ryan Flournoy over receiving yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots’ offensive performance last week was puzzling. The team ran so well against the Bills, both with Drake Maye and TreVeyon Henderson. They didn’t seem to run enough with Henderson following his 65-yard touchdown, but the biggest shock was that Maye seemingly forget that he can scramble. Maye ran so much in the first half, but barely moved in the fourth quarter.

Perhaps the Patriots will notice this and rectify this blunder. The problem is that unlike the Bills, the Ravens don’t surrender much on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. The Ravens give up just the seventh-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks, so Maye won’t be able to run as much. And if last week is any indication, Maye won’t have much success aerially either. Baltimore has gotten some defensive players back from injury, so Maye could struggle to generate much passing yardage, as his offensive line will be tested for the third time without Will Campbell.

As far as Henderson is concerned, the Patriots shouldn’t expect much from him either. The Ravens are sixth against the run, so Henderson won’t be running for huge gains like he did versus Buffalo.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens were terrific defensively last week. If they can explode on this side of the ball, they’ll be incredibly difficult to beat come January.

The problem is that the Ravens continued to be lethargic offensively. They scored 24 points, but seven came off a pick-six, so they notched only 17 points versus Cincinnati’s poor defense. That doesn’t give the Ravens much hope for beating a better New England defense. The Patriots, ranked 11th in defense over the past two months, can generate pressure on the quarterback, which is not something Lamar Jackson will want to hear because Ronnie Stanley got banged up last week. New England can lock down Zay Flowers, forcing Jackson to look elsewhere.

The Patriots happen to be worse against the run than the pass because of injuries on the defensive line. This would have been very bullish for the Ravens last year, but Derrick Henry hasn’t been nearly as dominant this season.

RECAP: It’s hard to know which Ravens team we’ll see. Will we see the one that dominated the Bengals last week, or the one that embarrassed itself versus the Steelers in the prior game? As someone who has some Ravens futures, I’d like to think that their defense will perform like it did versus Cincinnati, but the Bengals may have been going through the motions after losing a thriller in Buffalo, causing them to basically be eliminated from the playoffs.

I can get behind Baltimore’s defense improving because of better health, but I still worry about the offense. Jackson has looked a bit healthier each week, but still doesn’t seem quite right. However, he could get back to 100 percent at any point, which would make him a force once more, especially against a defense that doesn’t defend mobile quarterbacks very well.

I haven’t been able to read the Ravens well in the past month or so. Thus, I’ll lay off of this game. For office pool purposes, I’ll lean toward the Ravens because the Patriots haven’t battled too many tough opponents this year, but New England could certainly pull the upset if Jackson continues to be unimpressive.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens have quite a few defenders on the injury report, plus Ronnie Stanley. This is almost feeling like earlier in the year when Ravens players were going down like flies. We’ll see if those players remain on the injury report later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: There were some injury concerns for the Ravens earlier in the week, but every player in question will play. Conversely, the Patriots will miss Robert Spillane, who has been a great player for them in the middle of their defense. The Patriots have a few other key players who are questionable as well, mostly in the front seven. Remember, Milton Williams has been missing, so if the Patriots have some of these players sidelined, they could have stacked injuries and won’t be able to keep the Ravens in check.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps pounded the Ravens at -3, bringing this line to -3.5. The public, meanwhile, is all over the Patriots.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a classic public versus sharps game. The public loves the Patriots. The sharps love the Ravens. If you want to shadow the sharps, the best line is -3.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -2.

Computer Model: Ravens -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Patriots are a massive public dog.

Percentage of money on New England: 83% (144,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Chance of snow, 34 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.