NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2026 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2026): 7-7-2 (+$445)
2026 NFL Picks: 34-38-4 (-$1,425)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 11, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 5 NFL Picks - Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Believe it or not, there was good reason to be optimistic about the Chargers heading into the season. They appeared to have an upgraded offensive coordinator with Mike McDaniel, and both tackles were back from injury. Well, Justin Herbert hasn't taken to McDaniel's system for whatever reason, and now the Chargers could once again be without both tackles against one of the best pass rushes in the NFL.

The Chargers' loss to the Seahawks was disastrous. Sure, they pushed the spread, but they were getting blown out for most of the game, and they also lost Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt to injuries. Slater will be out four to six weeks, while Alt is being evaluated for a neck injury.

If both tackles are out, Herbert will be under way more pressure than usual against a Denver defense that has accumulated 77 quarterback pressures on the season thus far. If, however, Alt is available, then Herbert will have some time to throw into a Denver secondary that could be without both of its starting cornerbacks, with Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss suffering injuries last week.

The way to normally attack Denver's defense is via the run, given that the Broncos are just 23rd versus ground attacks. However, the Chargers haven't been able to run the ball effectively with Omarion Hampton, who seems to fumble whenever he gets a good opportunity.

Being poor against the run is often a death sentence against Kyle Shanahan's offenses, and I don't need to tell you that Evans' return to the lineup would be very beneficial against Denver's surprisingly struggling secondary.

DENVER OFFENSE: Here we go with Denver's offense again. The Broncos have struggled mightily to move the chains in the first half. Offensive coordinator Davis Webb has been under heavy pressure to improve, but the Broncos can't get things going unless they're battling a team exhausted because of the altitude in the second half at home. The Broncos won't have that luxury in Los Angeles. They also won't be battling a soft defense.

Despite the Chargers being 0-4, they are ranked sixth in defensive EPA if you exclude Week 1. They've done well in multiple departments. They're ranked 12th against the run, and Denver doesn't rush the ball that well with J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey.

Bo Nix will have to do a lot of the work in this game, and that could be problematic against a Chargers pass rush that has improved since its embarrassing loss to the Cardinals in Week 1. Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu both have 14 quarterback pressures on the year, and they should be able to rattle Nix a bit.

RECAP: I'm seeing a gnarly spread disparity with my numbers. The Broncos are favored by 3.5, and my calculated line is Denver -6. However, the computer model believes the Chargers should be favored by three. Joke all you want about the computer being drunk, but the computer hates the Broncos, and rightfully so. Denver's two wins have come via second-half rallies against teams exhausted in the altitude. Otherwise, the Broncos have lost by double digits to the Chiefs and 49ers. Granted, those teams are a combined 8-0, but Kansas City has played nothing but close games otherwise against the Colts, Dolphins, and Raiders.

One other thing to consider is that the Broncos have to battle the Seahawks on Thursday night following this game. I know this is a divisional battle, but the Chargers are 0-4. There's a chance the Broncos may not take them seriously, given that they have to take on the defending Super Bowl champions in just four days. That's a lot to prepare for, and the Broncos may think that they can coast to an easy victory against a team that hasn't won yet.

I'm not dying to take the Chargers here, especially if they're missing both tackles. But the computer line and the spot both say that they're the right side. If Alt can play, I think they might be worth a selection and perhaps a small wager. If, however, Alt is out, and the Chargers have cluster injuries at tackle, I won't have any interest in them against Denver's dynamic pass rush. In fact, I might just side with the Broncos.

I'm going to assume for now that Alt is going to be fine for this game, but if we hear otherwise, I'll switch this pick to Denver.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like both teams might have cluster injuries this week. The Broncos were without Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss in Wednesday's practice. Whether Justin Herbert can take advantage or not is another story. And that leads us to the Charger injuries, as Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater - as well as some other blockers - were DNP on Wednesday as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: There's good news for the Broncos entering this game. No, they didn't get one of their cornerbacks returning to the field. Rather, Sean Payton will be calling the offensive plays this week, which, as I said in the Texans-Titans write-up, is a good thing when the head coach gets involved. We saw this matter for the short term when Dan Campbell took over for John Morton last year in Detroit. Payton is a brilliant play caller, while the Denver players will be on alert to improve because if this doesn't work, some heads may roll.

Meanwhile, the Chargers are a complete mess. Their offensive line is in shambles. Allow me to discuss just how bad it is. They're going to be missing both starting tackles, so their replacements will be sixth-round rookie Logan Taylor and fourth-round rookie Travis Burke.

Their guards will be Jake Slaughter and Cole Strange. Slaughter was filling in at center for the injured Tyler Biadasz and wasn't doing a terrible job, but he now has to move back to guard, where he struggled so much in training camp that he lost the job to someone else. Strange, meanwhile, is a first-round bust who has been a poor performer this year.

The center position will be occupied by someone named Jacob Spomer. I have no idea who that is. He's an undrafted rookie out of Fresno State. So, the Chargers will have four rookies starting on the offensive line, two of whom were acquired in the sixth round or later. That's not good.

What's also not good is that the Chargers will likely have cluster injuries at receiver. Quentin Johnston is out, which could be a good thing because he can't catch anything, but Ladd McConkey didn't practice at all this week. He's listed as questionable, but he's unlikely to play. Even if he does, he could easily aggravate his injury and get knocked out early.

This is an easy move to Denver. The Broncos are coming off a loss, so I like the spot for them, even though they have to play Seattle on Thursday night. I also like that Payton is going to be calling the plays. Plus, fading the Chargers seems too easy. They weren't even performing well when healthy, and now they're going to be starting a bunch of rookies on the offensive line.

Despite all this, the line is still -3.5, which makes no sense to me. This almost seems like a trap, but the betting action is pretty much 50-50. So, I'll be betting Denver pretty aggressively.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Ladd McConkey won't play, which obviously makes Denver even more enticing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ladd McConkey will play, but he could be extremely limited and may get knocked out early in the game. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is -3.5 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.

The Broncos take on the Seahawks on Thursday night after this game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -6.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -2.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 54% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won the last 3 meetings, excluding when the Chargers sat their starters.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.