NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2026 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Preseason 2026): 5-7 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2026): 6-9-1 (+$740)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2026): 10-6 (-$1,395)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2026): 6-9-1 (-$795)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2026): 7-7-2 (+$445)
2026 NFL Picks: 34-38-4 (-$1,425)

NFL Picks (2025): 153-138-4 (+$7,055)
NFL Picks (2024): 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 11, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 5 NFL Picks - Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

WEEK 4 RECAP: I don't think I've ever been so frustrated in a week in which we were up four figures heading into Monday night. We suffered multiple bad beats on big bets. Luckily, we had a huge Sunday night where we won more than 13 units on live bets, which were posted in the Discord.

I'll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Texans, 8 units (loss): This was not a bad beat, but the Texans blew a 10-point lead at halftime. We could have won this pick, but Houston's defense was a complete joke in the second half. Luckily, this wasn't our only Pick of the Month.

Trevor Lawrence ladder, 3 units (loss): This was a winner, at least on the first rung of the ladder. Trevor Lawrence hit a big pass play to Parker Washington on the final drive to cross the yardage needed. Or so we thought. When this play happened, I breathed a sigh of relief. Minutes later, I was confused when I saw we didn't win the bet. What happened was that Washington's catch was overturned because he stepped out of bounds, so Lawrence didn't get the necessary yardage. This one stung.

Rams, 8 units (win): I bumped this pick up to eight units on Sunday morning when Lane Johnson was announced out. This looked like a losing bet for a while. The Eagles were set to pull the upset despite being 0-of-12 on third down, but the Rams scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes to prevail. I would not consider this a lucky win because the Rams were outgaining the Eagles throughout the afternoon, but they kept shooting themselves in the foot. They should have been leading for the entire game.

Ravens, 4 units (loss): The Lawrence ladder was bad beat No. 1. This was bad beat No. 2. The Ravens led 24-7 at halftime and appeared to be locked in to cover, but Lamar Jackson left the game with an injury. Jackson didn't play the entire second half, which is why Baltimore didn't score after intermission. And yet, the Ravens were still in position to cover with two minutes remaining, but the Titans engineered a covering drive to once again get a BS back-door cover. I f**king hate this stupid Tennessee team.

Seahawks, 5 units (push): And here's bad beat/push No. 3. The Seahawks were up 30-13 at the beginning of the third quarter. Justin Herbert had like 54 yards at the midway point of the third quarter. The Chargers were doing nothing all game, but they scored twice late in the game to push.

Jared Goff bets, 5 units (win): We won more than 13 units in the Sunday night game because we laddered Goff passing yards and Goff-Bryce Young combo passing yards. What a great night! If you're not in the Discord with us for these live bets, what are you doing? Again, here's the link to the WalterFootball Discord.

Saints, 3 units (loss): Wow, way off on this one. I thought the Saints would ride an emotional wave in an even matchup. Instead, we learned that the Falcons are much better than New Orleans.

Tyler Shough ladder, 3 units (loss): Game flow killed this bet. The Saints couldn't keep up, which ruined potential garbage time.

By the way, some of you may not have noticed that all but two picks each week will be in the Premium section. I truly apologize to those who are disappointed by this, but we had no choice; otherwise, we'd have to close up shop, and there'd be no picks anyway. Because of declining ad rates as a result of our terrible economy, and AI search results blocking new people from finding this WalterFootball.com, we needed to pivot in another direction to keep the website alive. We're not asking for much - just 30 cents per day - so if you want to help us, you can sign up for WalterFootball Premium. As a bonus, you won't see any ads. This website will be incredibly fast and won't crash at all as a result of any ads.

DALLAS OFFENSE: As if the Buccaneers didn't have enough issues, they'll now be without their top safety, Antoine Winfield Jr. I don't need to tell you that this is a horrible development for this matchup. The Cowboys just lit up the Texans for 34 points on the road.

If the Buccaneers had the pass rush to rattle Dak Prescott, perhaps they could compensate for the Winfield injury. That, however, is not the case. The Buccaneers have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL this year, despite drafting Rueben Bain in the first round. To be fair to Bain, he's missed some time, but the fact remains that Tampa Bay doesn't have the personnel to disrupt what the Cowboys are doing aerially.

The Buccaneers are at least great against the run, but the Cowboys didn't get much from Javonte Williams last week. Despite that, they were still able to score into the 30s against Houston.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Cowboys rank third in offense. On the other end of the spectrum, the Buccaneers are 32nd, and that includes three games from Baker Mayfield. Jalon Daniels started last week's game against the Packers and ruined a possible upset victory by throwing two interceptions. Daniels is a good scrambler and has a decent arm, but his accuracy is woeful and he doesn't see the field properly.

Given that Daniels is going against the Cowboys, I would normally say that he would have an easier matchup. However, that's not true because the Packers have a dismal defense, and yet Daniels could only muster 14 points against them. I can't see things changing too drastically just four days later.

With no support from his pedestrian rushing attack, Daniels will continue to struggle and will likely be turned over a couple of times.

RECAP: I normally don't bet Thursday night games. The reason is that because teams are coming off such short rest, the games are often poorly played and unpredictable as a result. However, this is a much different circumstance. The Cowboys are leagues better than the Buccaneers, and while they're coming off a comeback victory, which would normally be a fade spot, I believe they are just too strong for Tampa Bay, especially given that the Buccaneers are going to be using an undrafted free agent rookie quarterback on just three days of preparation. Daniels is a great player to fade anyway, given that backup-level quarterbacks on bad teams often have issues covering against opponents that are mediocre or better.

I also think this line is mispriced. The Cowboys are favored by eight at the moment, but I made the line -12. I don't understand why the spread is in single digits, but it's a nice opportunity to bet Dallas in a completely lopsided matchup.

Our Week 5 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are backing the Buccaneers, dragging the line all the way down to +7.5 in some places. I have no idea why the pros love Tampa Bay so much. I'm on the Cowboys, who are the far better team and are battling a horrible opponent with a miserable quarterback, making this an easy fade of Tampa. Also, the Cowboys look like they're going to get Tyler Smith back, which is a huge deal.

PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: FanDuel is offering a 50-percent on any wager in this game, up to $25. We'll be betting Cowboys -19.5 +420.

DraftKings has a 50-percent boost for a three-leg same-game parlay, up to $50. The parlay will be posted below.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys won't have Joey Porter Jr., but they will have Tyler Smith back from injury. As for the supposed sharp money we saw earlier, it appears as though that was phantom line movement to get a better number because other sharp money hammered Dallas at -7.5 and -8. The best line -8.5 -108 at Caesars.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Cowboys.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -12.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -9.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -8.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Money coming in on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 77% (224,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 154-106 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Dak Prescott is 42-35 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -9.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.