2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Chiefs at Titans

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe, but the Chiefs’ season is over. Patrick Mahomes fought so hard to keep his team afloat that he sacrificed his body in the process. Already dealing with a balky knee, Mahomes suffered a torn ACL while trying to will his team to victory.

I think we’re about to see why Mahomes deserved to be in MVP consideration every year. Gardner Minshew will start this game, and it’ll be very difficult for him to operate behind an offensive line that has many injuries. The Titans don’t have the best pass rush at all, but they do have Jeffery Simmons, who could dominate the trenches in this game. Minshew will be hurried and forced to throw to a group of receivers who can’t produce anything downfield. His best option will be Rashee Rice via dinking and dunking.

Minshew won’t be able to lean on a ground game either. The Chiefs can’t run the ball, while the Titans have been surprisingly solid at stopping the rush ever since getting Simmons back from injury.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: If the Chiefs win this game, it’ll have to be via their defense. The opponent is easy enough. The problem is that the Chiefs suffered multiple key injuries to their defense last week. This includes Chris Jones. While Jones returned to action, there’s a chance he won’t be 100 percent. The motivation might be in question for Jones as well, who had to be told by the media after the loss to the Chargers that his team was eliminated from the playoffs.

The Chiefs also saw Jaylen Watson and Nick Bolton get hurt against the Chargers. Like Jones, Bolton returned to action, but Watson did not. Watson has been Kansas City’s top cornerback this season, so the Chiefs’ pedestrian pass defense could be even worse than usual.

The only saving grace here for the Chiefs is that they’re battling the Cam Ward-led Titans. Ward has been a disaster this year, holding on to the ball way too long in the pocket and refusing to utilize his best trait, which is his mobility. Though the Chiefs have a hobbled defense that isn’t good enough in the first place, I don’t trust Ward enough to take advantage of it, especially with Tony Pollard likely to be stymied by a stout Kansas City run defense.

RECAP: What’s the motivation for the Chiefs in this game? They’ve been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time in the Mahomes era. They won’t even have Mahomes. They have nothing to play for. And sure, players are just hired mercs who will fight for new contracts, but they’ve been known to quit for a short time period because of circumstances such as these. Many Chiefs players could fight to close out the season, but they could also take this game off after being in so many must-win situations.

This is Titans or nothing for me, and that means it’s probably going to be nothing because I don’t want to wager my slightly hard-earned money on one of the two worst teams in the NFL. I just don’t trust the Titans, and I love to fade them in most instances, but this is not the time to do it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As if things weren’t bad enough for the Chiefs, Rashee Rice is now in danger of missing this game due to a concussion. He didn’t practice Wednesday, which is a negative indicator for his availability for this game. I wouldn’t say it’s impossible that I end up betting the Titans for a little bit.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs are treating this like Week 18. They’re sitting a high number of players, including their top three tackles, a starting linebacker (Leon Chenal), an outside cornerback (Trent McDuffie), and two wide receivers, including Rashee Rice. I find it absurd that Gardner Minshew and a skeleton-crew roster are favored by three on the road, even if it’s against the Titans. This will be a three-unit wager on Tennessee.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Titans, but only at +3.5. The best line now is +3.5 -120 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

What do the Chiefs have to play for now?

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -11.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Does the public know that Patrick Mahomes is out?

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 53% (69,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Slight chance of rain, 49 degrees. Light wind.