2025 NFL Picks – Week 16: Chargers at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I normally wouldn’t be surprised about Justin Herbert winning consecutive games against the two defending Super Bowl participants. These recent results have been shocking, however, given that Herbert has done so with a broken hand behind an anemic offensive line.

This sort of production can’t possibly last, but then again, this is a much easier matchup than Herbert has faced against the Eagles and Chiefs. The Cowboys have barely been able to stop anyone this year. They just allowed J.J. McCarthy to look like a Pro Bowler. They generated absolutely no pressure on him despite Christian Darrisaw’s absence. With that in consideration, I don’t think we can expect Herbert to see too much pressure despite the poor blocking in front of him.

The Cowboys are at least better against the run than the pass, so they won’t be completely inept in this matchup. However, they really struggle to cover wide receivers, and we know that Herbert has plenty of them.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Though I just gave Herbert the credit for beating the Eagles and Chiefs despite playing with an injured left hand and behind a porous offensive line, the Chargers scored only 22 and 16 points in those victories. The true hero has been the defense.

The Chargers rank second in EPA on this side of the ball. They’ve generated massive amounts of pressure on Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, forcing the latter into five turnovers. Top Cowboys offensive lineman Tyler Smith got hurt on Sunday night, so if he’s not 100 percent, that will present a big problem against this dynamic Chargers front. Dak Prescott usually handles pressure very well compared to other quarterbacks, but this is still far from an ideal situation.

I wouldn’t expect much from Javonte Williams either. The Chargers are fourth in run defense. The only blemish in the running game they’ve had since their bye was the 65-yard run by Saquon Barkley. They’ve otherwise limited every runner.

RECAP: Despite being underdogs, the Chargers have the edge on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Something like that is unusual, but it’s certainly true here, although Herbert’s troublesome hand could cause him to commit a turnover or two, especially given the issues on the offensive line.

Nevertheless, that could be negated by Dallas’ lack of motivation. The Cowboys will be eliminated from playoff contention if the Eagles beat the Redskins on Saturday afternoon, so they’ll know their fate by kickoff. It’s possible that they could still try hard – recall Detroit’s great performance in a Week 18 Sunday night game versus the Packers a few years ago – but Brian Schottenheimer doesn’t strike me as the master motivator that Dan Campbell happens to be.

If, however, the Eagles fall to the Redskins, we’ll have to revisit this selection. The Cowboys could be energized by that result, so my opinion on this game would change if the Eagles somehow found a way to lose.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Again, we’re waiting on what happens in the Eagles-Redskins game to make a determination on this pick. I can’t see a Jerry Jones-owned team trying very hard upon elimination.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cowboys have a major injury with DaRon Bland sidelined. Of course, the most important thing is the result of the Eagles game, so expect an important update Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys now have nothing to play for, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t try. That could be the case, but good luck trying to handicap this sort of motivation! The sharps have not played this game, while the Chargers are the No. 1 public side this week. The best line is +1.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: TBA.

The Cowboys could be eliminated by kickoff.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Lots of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 77% (88,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Dak Prescott is 41-33 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.