NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2025): 7-9 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,370)
2025 NFL Picks: 103-96-5 (-$735)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 14, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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Week 14 Analysis: We had a great week overall. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jets, 2 units (loss): I’m including this pick because it was originally three units, but was dropped to two units because of the line change from +3 to +2.5. The sharps were way off on this game, or so it seems. In reality, the Jets would’ve had a chance at a comeback if Tyrod Taylor threw more than four passes. Taylor hurt his groin, giving way to Brady Cook, who was Max Brosmer bad. I hope Cook starts again, so we can fade the Jets.

Ravens, 4 units (loss): I assumed that Lamar Jackson would be healthier after having nine days off, and I also assumed that Aaron Rodgers would still be hurt. Both of my assumptions were wrong, and thus, we lost four units.

Jaguars, 5 units (win): Daniel Jones tore his Achilles at the end of the first quarter, but he was already playing on a fractured leg, so he was on borrowed time. Riley Leonard did OK in relief.

Rams, 5 units (win): Not only did we win five units on this game; we also had Rams -20.5 +330.

Texans, 3 units (win): The sharps loved the Chiefs, but we were able to win with the Texans in a game that was mostly never in doubt.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers were a massive disappointment in last week’s loss to the Saints. They somehow scored just 20 points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They had an opportunity to win the game on the final drive, but went incomplete twice and short of the first-down marker on fourth down. This knocked out a high percentage of those still available in Circa Survivor.

I didn’t think this was too surprising. It was a bad spot for the Buccaneers with a Thursday game coming up, and Baker Mayfield isn’t 100 percent. The offensive line also dealt with some injuries; Tristan Wirfs missed the game, while Ben Bredeson was knocked out for the afternoon. Luckily for the Buccaneers, they have a matchup against an Atlanta defense that has been worse in the previous month-and-a-half compared to the first month-and-a-half. The Falcons are especially porous against the run, so Mayfield will be able to rely on Bucky Irving to pick up chunks of yards.

As for Mayfield himself, it’ll depend on if he’s healthier after three days off, and if his offensive linemen return from injury. The Falcons can get after the quarterback, so not having Wirfs will be detrimental to Mayfield’s chances, especially if he’s still enduring through an injury.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Buccaneers defense can’t be exempt from taking any blame for last week’s loss. They allowed Tyler Shough to have his best game. This wasn’t too much of a surprise either because Tampa Bay is 22nd in defense. The team has not been generating much pressure on the quarterback, and its ability to stop the run has regressed this year.

With that in mind, Bijan Robinson should have a strong performance. The Buccaneers put the clamps on Robinson as a rusher in the opening-week battle, but things have changed greatly as far as Tampa Bay’s run defense is concerned.

The Falcons should be able to throw on the Buccaneers as well. It’s unclear if Drake London will play, though it seems doubtful, given that there are only three days between this game and the previous one. However, Kyle Pitts has routinely dominated the Buccaneers. He’s coming off two big games, so he should be able to do that again.

RECAP: If this game were on Sunday, I could buy the Buccaneers getting healthier and being able to win this game by margin. Three days of rest is not enough time to reliably recover, however, so it seems unlikely that Mayfield and Wirfs will suddenly be close to 100 percent.

I’d take the Falcons as a bet, but I can’t bring myself to wager on these stupid Thursday night games. These Thursday contests are not real football games, and they are very difficult to predict as a result. The Falcons seem like the play, but I don’t trust Raheem Morris to devise any sort of game plan on just three days of preparation (or even three years of preparation, for that matter.)

Our Week 15 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are some significant questionable players in this game, including Mike Evans and Kyle Pitts. I’d like Pitts’ overs, but he may not play in this game, so we won’t have too confident of a same-game parlay in the afternoon.

PLAYER PROPS & SAME-GAME PARLAY: BetMGM has a $50 no-sweat bet. We’ll be betting Kyle Pitts over 59.5 receiving yards there because he typically destroys the Buccaneers. DraftKings has a 30-percent profit boost for same-game parlays. We’re going with Pitts over 59.5 receiving yards, Bijan Robinson over 40.5 receiving yards, and Baker Mayfield under 221.5 passing yards. This $25 parlay pays $177.75. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Falcons will have Kyle Pitts available, but the big news is that Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan will return. It’s unclear how healthy they are, so I don’t know if they’ll make a huge impact right away. Perhaps the sharps think so because there’s some pro money on the Buccaneers. The best Atlanta line is +6 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -6.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

Slight lean on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 66% (182,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Road Team is 150-103 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Raheem Morris is 3-7 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Buccaneers are 46-80 ATS at home in the previous 126 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -5.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Clear, 59 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s amazing that when some Cardinals offensive players get injured, they have better players step onto the field. Jacoby Brissett has been an upgrade over Kyler Murray, while Michael Wilson has blossomed ever since Marvin Harrison Jr. has started missing time.

The effectiveness of Brissett, Wilson, and others will be put to the test in this game. Houston has an elite defense that is terrific in every regard. The Cardinals can usually pass protect well, but this didn’t work in last week’s loss to the Rams, particularly in the second half. We may see similar results in this contest.

What really helps Houston’s matchup in this contest is that the Cardinals have no running game to speak of. There was a chance Trey Benson would be able to return, but Bam Knight will probably be the primary runner again. Knight will not get anything on the ground, allowing the Texans to concentrate on stopping Wilson and Trey McBride.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans were able to win in Kansas City last week, but they didn’t have the best offensive showing. C.J. Stroud began the second half 0-of-8. The Texans’ pitiful offense was bailed out by Andy Reid handing the Texans the game on a silver platter when he opted to go for it on fourth-and-1 on his own 31. Reid looked like he wanted to get out of the stadium before his favorite restaurant closed for the night. #fatjokes

Some may think that things will go better for the Texans offensively in this game because Arizona’s defense was a sieve last week. However, that was against the Rams, who were pissed about losing to the Panthers the prior week. They were firing on all cylinders. Conversely, the Texans are coming off a couple of huge wins, so they may not be fully focused. It also seems likely that the Cardinals will have some of their injured players back on the field this week, which should help them limit Houston’s offense.

Particularly, Walter Nolen’s potential return would be huge. Nolen has been a beast for the Cardinals despite being a rookie, but he was out for last week’s game. The Texans’ offensive line has improved lately, but combatting Nolen in the trenches would still be a tall task for Houston’s blockers.

RECAP: I referenced this earlier, but this is not a good spot for the Texans. In the past three games, they’ve beaten the Bills, Colts, and Chiefs. The last time they’ve had an “easy” game was about a month ago when they barely scraped by the Titans, 16-13. Granted, Davis Mills played in that game instead of Stroud, but it’s not like Stroud has been this incredible quarterback.

This game has huge potential to be a letdown for the Texans. They have to be exhausted after all of those tough games, and now they get to battle a non-conference foe with a 3-10 record. It’s extremely unlikely that we’ll get to see Houston’s best effort in this game.

If I’m right, then this will give the Cardinals a better chance to cover the spread. I already liked Arizona because this line is so large. Sure, the Cardinals were just blown out by the Rams, but that was predictable. Arizona has been very competitive in most of its games this year, save for those against the top tier in the NFL. The Rams are obviously classified as such, while the Texans, despite their stellar defense, are not. The Cardinals recently took the Jaguars into overtime and then lost to the Buccaneers by three on the road. If they can remain within three of both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, then they can certainly stay within nine of the Texans, especially when Houston is in a poor scheduling spot.

We’re going to have a big play on the Cardinals as a result of the spot and the line being out of control. The advance spread was -6.5, and yet it’s ballooned by three points because the Texans beat a Chiefs team that has been losing to everyone? That makes no sense. The Cardinals scored 10 points on the Rams’ great defense last week before garbage time. If they do that again, I like their chances of covering because I don’t trust the Texans to reliably score 20 points in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s always painful to drop a projected bet from four to zero units, but that’s the case here because the Cardinals won’t have Paris Johnson Jr. available. Without Johnson, who has been a stellar tackle for Arizona this year, the Cardinals won’t have their top two tackles against Houston’s elite pass rush. Betting on them is just asking for trouble.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals will be missing some defensive players, but the real story is the offensive line. They’ll be without their starting left tackle, right tackle, left guard, and right guard (although their replacement right guard has been better than their starter.) This is a disaster against Houston’s elite defensive line. I have no idea what the Cardinals are going to do at tackle with both Paris Johnson and Jonah Williams out. Kelvin Beachum will start, but who else? I don’t think the Cardinals will be able to score against the Texans, but it’s not like Houston’s offense will light up the scoreboard either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Texans, likely because of what I discussed in the Saturday notes section. If you still like the Cardinals, the best line is +10.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Texans are coming off wins against the Bills, Colts, and Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.5.

Computer Model: Texans -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Slight action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 62% (80,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -9.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 19-38-1 heading into Week 13.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Seahawks -7.5

Broncos -7.5

Buccaneers -8

Rams -7.5

Cowboys +3

Browns -3.5

Bears +6.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Panthers -1.5

Patriots +1.5

Lions +6

Between this and SNAP benefits/fraud, there are going to be many hungry people in this final month of football.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: There was a glimmer of hope Monday night that things were back to normal. When Saquon Barkley broke free for his long touchdown run in the fourth quarter, Eagles fans may have wondered if this was a sign that the offense would perform closer to its 2024 level. Of course, this was not the case. Barkley barely ran for any yardage after that, while Jalen Hurts threw his fourth interception of the night on an ensuing drive in overtime.

If there’s a team that could cure Philadelphia’s ills, it’s the Raiders, who have a far worse defense than the Chargers. While the Chargers are sixth in defensive EPA, the Raiders are 26th. Las Vegas is 29th against the run, so Barkley will have more running lanes than he enjoyed Monday night.

If Barkley can run a bit better in this game, Hurts will be able to rebound off his five-turnover nightmare of a game. The Raiders don’t place nearly as much pressure on the quarterback as the Chargers do, despite Maxx Crosby’s presence, so Hurts will enjoy more time in the pocket to locate A.J. Brown, who has been on fire the past three weeks.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Philly fans may not believe it, but the Raiders offense is in worse shape than the Eagles offense. Part of that is Geno Smith’s injury. Smith left the game last week with a shoulder issue. This may have been the result of garbage time, but Kenny Pickett had more success moving the chains than Smith did. Given how putrid Smith has been this year – despite ESPN DEI hire Mina Kimes ranking him in the top 10 – it’s actually not too shocking that Las Vegas’ scoring unit put up some points with Pickett at the helm.

Again, this was garbage time, and it’s difficult to imagine Pickett doing much against Philadelphia’s elite defense. The real issue for the Raiders is the offensive line, which is in shambles. Philadelphia’s defensive line should have no difficulty flooding the backfield and potentially forcing Pickett into turnovers.

It would be great if Pickett were able to depend on Ashton Jeanty for some tough yards, but that’s not going to happen. Jeanty is dead last in the NFL in yards before contact. He’s getting hit in the backfield constantly, and that will persist against Philadelphia’s No. 7 rush defense.

RECAP: This spread is too high. The Eagles are an untrustworthy team that can’t produce any consistent offense without Lane Johnson. The last time they scored more than 21 points in a game was Oct. 26 when they still had Johnson on the field. Since then, they’ve posted 10, 16, 21, 15, and 19 points. Does that sound like a team that should be favored by 11 points?

Also, the Eagles are in an incredibly tough scheduling spot. They just endured an extremely physical game against the Chargers’ No. 6 defense. They played well into overtime and were on the field for about 150 snaps. And now, they have to prepare for another opponent on one fewer day of rest, all while traveling back across the country and playing a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast after their body clocks adjusted to Pacific time.

We just saw the Redskins and Broncos play a similar game on a Sunday night, and neither team covered the following week even though they had normal rest. Granted, Denver only lost the spread because of a bogus back-door field goal, but remember that they were only in a position to cover before the kick because they scored on a lucky Marvin Mims return. I would not say the Broncos played a cover-worthy game against the Raiders.

I know that the Eagles need to win this game more than the Broncos did over the Raiders, but they haven’t shown any evidence that we can trust them. Something is wrong with this team, so they don’t deserve our money. If they were playing a real team, I’d consider their opponent as a huge play. I can’t bet big on the Raiders, especially when considering the quarterback situation, but I can side with them for two or perhaps even three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I had a funny interaction with Kenny on our Tuesday fantasy show where he guessed that the spread of this game is Eagles -6. He was speechless when I told him the line was -11.5. Part of me wonders if I should have more units on the Raiders, but they are just way too untrustworthy.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was a chance that Kolton Miller would return for this game, but he’ll be out once more. I’d be willing to bet the Raiders for a big play at +12 if Miller were back, but I can’t do that. I still like the Raiders though for a couple of units, given the poor spot for the Eagles.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jordan Meredith is out for the Raiders, meaning they’re going to be down three of the best offensive linemen on an already-terrible blocking unit. I can’t get myelf to bet the Raiders, and it’s looking like there’s some sharp action coming in on the Eagles. The best line is +12.5 -102 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Eagles will be exhausted from their short week/travel/overtime.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -12.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Late money coming in on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 67% (77,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Raiders are 20-14 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Nick Sirianni is 4-8 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -12.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I got some hate for my Mina Kimes takes:

Thinking Geno Smith is a top-10 quarterback is bad enough. Simping for someone who thinks this is even worse! And yes, Mina Kimes is a DEI hire because if she were a straight white male, she would not have her ESPN job. There is no disputing that.

Here’s another beta male simp loser:

What a narc! “Hey Mina, look what I found! Someone is being mean to you! Now, can you praise me so I can imagine you being my girlfriend because no girl would ever touch me in real life!?”

Here’s another sad, low-energy loser who has never been touched by a woman:

These people are so pathetic. Hey, you guys realize Mina doesn’t give a damn about you, right? She’s too busy devising which horrible quarterback she’s going to rank in the top 10 next year.

Here’s one more dork:

“OMG LIKE LITERALLY LIKE OMG IF MINA KIMES LIKES ONE OF MY POSTS IM GONNA LIKE LITERALLY POOP MY PANTS LIKE LITERALLY POOP MY PANTS BECAUSE I DON’T KNOW WHAT IT’S LIKE TO LITERALLY BE TOUCHED BY LIKE A GIRL LIKE LITERALLY OMG.”

NEW YORK OFFENSE: We’ll begin with the side that has the news. Tyrod Taylor, to my chagrin, got hurt after four throws last week, giving way to Brady Cook. The undrafted free agent was Max Brosmer-level woeful, giving the Jets no chance to mount a comeback.

It’s unclear which quarterback will be available. If Taylor plays, he could be hindered by his groin. There’s Justin Fields, but he was too hurt to be active last week. It could be Cook again, and if that’s the case, Jacksonville’s defense will devour him. The Jaguars have a ferocious pass rush that will create nightmares for an inept quarterback, and an injured signal-caller won’t fare much better.

Whether it’s Taylor, Fields, or Cook, they won’t be able to lean on Breece Hall as a rusher very much. The Jaguars have made big improvements to their run defense lately, and they now rank fourth in that regard.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I’ve mentioned this repeatedly recently, but the Jaguars have fundamentally changed on this side of the ball because of the Jakobi Meyers acquisition. Trevor Lawrence has worked with talented receivers before in Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas Jr., and Travis Hunter, but they’ve had issues with drops or staying healthy, and in Hunter’s case, knowing where to line up. Meyers, conversely, is a professional receiver who doesn’t drop any passes and comes up with clutch receptions. It’s no coincidence that Lawrence has been much better since Meyers was integrated into the offense.

Lawrence should continue to perform on a high level in this matchup. Tua Tagovailoa just had a strong performance against a Jets secondary that is missing multiple players. The Jets also don’t have much of a pass rush, so Lawrence will have all the time in the world to find his weapons.

The Jets were even worse against the run than the pass last week. Even after De’Von Achane left the game with an injury, New York was being trampled by Jaylen Wright. Travis Etienne should have a big game.

RECAP: I’m going to be betting on the Jaguars this week, depending on what happens at quarterback for the Jets. If Taylor or Fields are expected to start, then I may hold off on a wager because the line might be too high. Jacksonville also has two tough games coming up against the Broncos and Colts, so there could be a look-ahead situation in this potential flat spot.

However, if Cook is expected to start, the Jaguars will be a big bet. They’ll dominate this game even if they’re a bit flat because Cook is so atrocious. Cook couldn’t even do anything against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, so how’s he going to deal with a Jacksonville stop unit that is ranked 11th in EPA over the past two months?

We’ll re-visit this pick in the Thursday Thoughts and Saturday Notes updates. For now, I’m going to list the Jaguars as the play for TBA units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may lock in this pick soon. Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor were both DNP on Wednesday, and the Jets signed Adrian Martinez to their practice squad.

LOCKED IN: Aaron Glenn announced that Brady Cook will start this game. I am locking in Jaguars -13.5 -106 at FanDuel for five units. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SATURDAY NOTES: We locked in the Jaguars already, and we got some other good news on the injury report. Walker Little looks like he’ll be clearing concussion protocol after two full practices. Meanwhile, the Jets won’t have Mason Taylor or two of their top three cornerbacks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Walker Little is a surprise inactive, but the Jaguars were perfectly fine without him last week. The sharps bet the Jaguars at -13.5 up to -14, so I’m glad we locked in the -13.5 on Friday afternoon. There are still -13.5s out there, but with vig worse than -110. The best line available is -13.5 -114 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Jaguars battle the Broncos and Colts after this “easy” game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -12.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -9.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 60% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jaguars are 70-116 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 18-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -12.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai must be licking their chops if they’ve watched any film on the Titans-Browns game. Tony Pollard trampled through Cleveland’s defense with ease. Given that the Bears run block better than all but two teams in the NFL, Swift and Monangai must think that they’re both going to break the all-time single-game rushing record.

Obviously, that won’t be the case. The Browns were stout against the run heading into the Tennessee game, but must have had a low-energy effort for some reason. Sure, the team lost Maliek Collins to injury, but I don’t think he could have made that much of a difference. Perhaps I’m wrong, and if I am, Swift and Monangai will combine for 300 or so rushing yards.

Caleb Williams will be hoping that his two runners will pick up huge chunks of yardage because he has struggled lately. He was bailed out by Swift and Monangai in the Black Friday game, and he was finally exposed versus the Packers, where he made a horrible throw into the end zone. Williams is protected well, but no amount of protection will allow the Bears to avoid the inevitable, which will be Myles Garrett chasing after Williams at various points in this game. We’ll see if that translates into some turnovers.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While we know the Browns can generate a great amount of pressure because of Garrett and other players on the front, the Bears cannot do that. They’re dead last in pressures, so Shedeur Sanders won’t have to drift 15 yards back in the pocket. Not that he’s done that very much lately, but regression could always happen.

Sanders had a solid game against the Titans. That was an easy matchup, but it’s not like Chicago has a fierce defense either. The Bears have gotten some players back from injury, however, including Jaylon Johnson, so I wouldn’t expect Jerry Jeudy to have a deep touchdown again. Harold Fannin could have a solid game, given that the Bears are a middling team when it comes to defending tight ends.

The Browns also project to do well in their running game, though that’s misleading. Quinshon Judkins will be going against Chicago’s 21st-ranked run defense, but the Bears should be better against ground attacks with T.J. Edwards returning from injury.

RECAP: If Cleveland’s run defense isn’t broken as a result of the Collins injury – and Collins isn’t even that good against the run – then the Browns are the right side. The Browns should be able to bounce back from a flat spot and an embarrassing loss to play hard against the Bears. Their defense should be able to rattle Williams, who has been shaky recently.

This is also a horrible spot for the Bears. Chicago has played a couple of tough games against the Eagles and Packers. Following this “easy” contest against the 3-10 Browns, they have to once again battle the Packers. After that, they’ll take on the 49ers and Lions. This is a classic sandwich situation.

Given that this line is too high – I don’t trust Williams or Chicago’s defense – and the poor spot the Bears are in, I’m inclined to back the Browns for 2-3 units. I don’t fully trust Sanders, but it’s not like he’ll be battling a tough defense that could give him lots of problems.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know if I’ll be betting the Browns after all. Half of their starters were DNP in Wednesday’s practice. If this persists, Cleveland is going to have a skeleton crew on the field for this game, which will make things easy for Chicago.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was eager to see the Browns injury report because I thought we’d have a nice betting opportunity on Chicago. It’s bad, but it’s not that bad. Denzel Ward is out, while Mason Graham could be sidelined after being DNP-DNP-limited. Graham being sidelined after Maliek Collins was lost for the season would be a disaster for Cleveland against Chicago’s rushing attack. Also, the offensive line has some injuries. Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller are out again, though Teller’s replacement was better than Teller last week. Conklin’s replacement, meanwhile, was passable. Now, center Ethan Pocic will be sidelined, and there’s a huge downgrade to Luke Wypler. There’s also a chance the Browns will be without their left guard, Joel Bitonio after he was DNP-DNP-limited throughout the week. His replacement is Zak Zinter, who is also on the injury report with a back injury (limited-DNP-DNP). The Browns don’t have any other interior linemen, so they’ll have to get creative if Bitonio and Zinter are sidelined. Thus, I’m going to switch my pick to the Bears, but I don’t know if these injuries are enough to get me to bet Chicago in what appears to be a poor spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns have a bunch of players inactive, but they’ll have Mason Graham and Joel Bitonio, so they’re not in terrible shape. The Bears, meanwhile, will have Rome Odunze available. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -7.5 -104 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

After this “easy” game, the Bears take on the Packers, 49ers, and Lions.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -7.5.

Computer Model: Bears -7.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 55% (83,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bears -7.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 12 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It almost goes without saying that if the Patriots win this game, Drake Maye will wrap up the MVP award. Maye has been incredible in his second season. He had his way with the Bills in the prior matchup, going 22-of-30 for 273 yards. One difference between that victory and this contest is that Maye won’t have the left side of his offensive line. Will Campbell’s absence could prove to be devastating at some point, and the Bills have the edge-rushing talent to exploit that liability.

Maye, however, should still be able to perform on a high level. He’ll be able to utilize his legs against a linebacker group that has dealt with constant injuries. I wouldn’t count on him leaning on Hunter Henry because the Bills are excellent against tight ends, but perhaps Stefon Diggs can duplicate the 10-146 line he posted in the previous meeting.

New England’s primary method of moving the chains should be on the ground. While the Bills have been decent against the run the past two weeks, they’ve struggled mightily to defend ground attacks for most of the season. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson could break free for big gains unless the Bills’ improvement against the run is real.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Maye won’t be the only quarterback utilizing his legs in this matchup. Josh Allen broke free for some crucial runs against the Bengals, and there’s no reason to think that won’t happen in this game. Allen has previously stated that he wants to save his legs for late-season and playoff battles, so there’s no reason to hold back now.

While Allen should run well, he could have the most success targeting his tight ends. Dawson Knox had a monster game against the Bengals, while Dalton Kincaid chipped in with some clutch late-game catches. Of course, that was against the most favorable matchup possible, but it’s not like the Patriots have been good against tight ends. They’ve surrendered the 11th-most production to the position.

The Patriots, however, shouldn’t have an issue clamping down on James Cook. The dynamic back failed to reach 50 rushing yards in the previous matchup, which wasn’t a surprise because New England is solid against the run.

RECAP: This is one of the toughest games of the week to handicap because we don’t know how good the Patriots are. Their 11-2 record is outstanding, but they haven’t really beaten anyone. And before you point out that they won in Buffalo, the Bills were not in good shape at that point of the season. Following the loss to the Patriots, Buffalo suffered a defeat to the crappy Falcons.

Outside of the Buffalo win, the Patriots haven’t defeated a winning team, save for the Buccaneers, who are on the verge of collapse after losing to the Saints at home. And sure, the Patriots have demolished their competition, which is why I’m not completely dismissing them as potentially being a great team, but all I’m saying is that we haven’t really seen proof of their ability to beat top competition. Sweeping the Bills would make me feel a lot better about their chances of winning the Super Bowl.

So, we’ll see what happens. I’m currently leaning toward the Bills because they’re a known commodity, and there’s a chance they’ve figured out their putrid run defense over the past couple of weeks.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No real update for this game. I’m still leaning toward the Bills, but don’t plan on betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both of these teams have one major defensive injury. For the Bills, top cornerback Christian Benford was downgraded in practice each day. Meanwhile, Robert Spillane was full-limited-limited with a foot injury. It sounds like Benford is much more unlikely to play, but I’d still be OK with backing the Bills because it’s only one injury to the secondary.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills won’t have Christian Benford or Terrel Bernard, and yet the sharps are betting on them. The best line is -2.5 -105 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

Plenty of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 62% (114,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Bills have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, excluding when they sat their starters.

Mike Vrabel is 6-0 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Bills -1.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 29 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I’ve been so incredibly disappointed with the Ravens over the past couple of weeks. I thought there was a good chance they’d be able to run the table and win the division easily, but they’ve dropped two in a row at home against the Bengals and Steelers. Perhaps this should have been expected because the Ravens struggled to distance themselves from the Browns and Jets prior to their two-game losing streak.

Lamar Jackson can’t run effectively because of some sort of leg injury, and when he can’t run, he’s not a very good quarterback. He has an easy matchup this week, at least on paper, but he couldn’t take advantage of this spot two weeks ago. Also, it’s worth noting that the Bengals have improved defensively recently. They put the clamps on Drake Maye and Jackson prior to Week 14, and in Week 14, they held the Bills to 25 points if you exclude the pick-six and the points scored off the ensuing tipped interception. If Trey Hendrickson can somehow return this week, that’ll improve things even more.

Something the Ravens forgot to do in the Thanksgiving night game against the Bengals was run the ball. Derrick Henry barely touched the ball, even when the game was close. That was inexplicable play-calling because the Bengals are so weak against the run. However, Henry seems like he’s washed up at this stage of his career, so feeding him the ball against this poor run defense may not even produce much.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow had an excellent return from injury in that Thanksgiving night game. He began slowly, but he carved up Baltimore’s defense with ease in the second half. That seems less impressive now after what Aaron Rodgers did to the Ravens, but Burrow was far better versus the Bills last week. He looked like the Burrow of old, aside from those two fluky interceptions.

Burrow should continue to improve, especially in the rematch. The Ravens’ defense has been pathetic recently, and its inability to generate any pressure on the quarterback has been the primary issue. That should continue to persist, allowing Burrow to thrive.

One area in which the Bengals won’t succeed is running the ball, given that Baltimore has been third versus the rush over the past two months. Chase Brown won’t do much on the ground, but he could be used as a weapon as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: I don’t understand why the Ravens are favored on the road. Their defense has been atrocious recently, while Jackson is not healthy. I thought there was a chance that would change because of the mini-bye, but Jackson wasn’t any healthier.

There’s always a chance Jackson’s health could improve this week, but that won’t change the fact that Henry is washed up. There are serious questions about Baltimore’s offense, and we can’t say that it has a big edge versus Cincinnati’s defense anymore because the Bengals have played better on this side of the ball.

The Bengals are the play in the rematch. I can’t say that this will be a big bet because of the uncertainty surrounding Jackson, but I’ll feel better about this wager if we were able to get +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: For the first time in a month-plus, Lamar Jackson wasn’t DNP or limited with an injury on Wednesday. Instead, he was DNP on a Wednesday with “rest.” Tee Higgins, by the way, is in danger of missing this game, but he didn’t play against the Ravens in the first meeting.

SATURDAY NOTES: Baltimore’s defense has been a disaster recently, but the team could get Ar’Darius Washington on the field for the first time all year. Washington is an excellent safety, so that would be huge, especially in this matchup. I’m still leaning toward the Bengals in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We’re going agianst the sharps here; they’ve taken the Ravens at -2.5, though not at -3. The best line is +3 -105 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.

Computer Model: Bengals -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

The Bengals are a big public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 76% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Ravens have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Joe Burrow is 19-9 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Sunny, 13 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers won Monday night, but it came at a price. They lost their third offensive tackle, Trey Pipkins, and their offense was anemic after that. Herbert took seven sacks, and he committed multiple turnovers as a result.

It’s difficult to imagine the Chargers having any sustained offensive success in this game without their three tackles. The Chiefs have a poor pass defense, but they can generate decent pressure on the quarterback, so Herbert will constantly be under siege. This could translate into turnovers.

Given the blocking issues, it’s unlikely that the Chargers will have any consistent success on the ground as well. Omarion Hampton is back in the lineup, but given the offensive line situation, he can’t really do anything.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs are obviously no strangers to offensive line concerns. They were down three tackles as well this past week. Both of their starters were sidelined, and Wanya Morris got hurt on the first play from scrimmage. As a result, the Chiefs scored just 10 points, albeit against Houston’s elite defense.

The Chargers also have a terrific defense. They’re not as great as Houston, but they’re still ranked sixth. The Chargers can flood the backfield well with Khalil Mack and company, so if all three Kansas City tackles are out again – Jawaan Taylor was doubtful last week – then Patrick Mahomes won’t have much time to operate.

Mahomes will have to release quick passes to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to compensate. Both players let him down with huge drops in the fourth quarter on Sunday night, but they’ll have a chance to redeem themselves this week.

RECAP: Both of these teams are similar. The Chargers and Chiefs each had various moments throughout the season where they were viewed as one of the top teams in the NFL. Both teams have been ravaged by offensive line injuries. The one difference would be that the Chargers have maintained a strong defensive rating, which would explain why they’re 9-4, and why the Chiefs are 6-7.

There’s another big difference, however, and that would pertain to this game. The Chargers are in an awful scheduling spot. They just endured an overtime game and now have to prepare for their biggest rival on a short week. They played about 150 snaps with the Eagles, and we just saw the Broncos and Redskins both fail to cover the spread following a similar snap count. Granted, the Broncos lost the spread on a back-door field goal at the buzzer, but they were also able to benefit from a kickoff return earlier in the game.

I like the Chiefs because of the scheduling spot, but I hate that this spread is well above -3. You have to pay a tax on the Chiefs because of price memory. I would absolutely love them at -2.5 or -3, especially if they get an offensive lineman or two back from injury, but laying four or even 4.5 is a tough pill to swallow.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m thinking about betting the Chiefs. The Chargers are in such a tough scheduling spot, and their offensive line is in shambles. The sharp money has come in on the Chiefs as well, though there’s a chance that this is phantom line movement before other pro money comes in on the Chargers.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was under the impression that Trey Smith would return this week, but he’s out again. This means the Chiefs won’t have Smith or their top two left tackles. However, they have a liability at only two positions; they’re still strong at left guard, center, and right tackle. Meanwhile, the Chargers won’t have their top three tackles, while right guard Mekhi Becton is fat and out of shape. The Chargers’ offensive line is in far worse shape. The Chargers are also in a terrible spot. I’m confident enough in the Chiefs to bump them up to three units.

LOCKED IN: The sharps have taken the Chiefs to -6. The only -5.5 -110 I still see available is at FanDuel, so I’m going to lock in this pick right now. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no Quentin Johnston or Trent McDuffie for their respective teams. The sharps have been betting the Chiefs all week. We already locked in this game, but if you haven’t, the best line is -5.5 -115 at several books, including FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chargers will be exhausted from their short week/travel/overtime.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chargers are a big public dog.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 75% (97,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Chiefs have won 19 of the last 23 meetings.

Jim Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Patrick Mahomes is 106-31 SU, 71-64 ATS (57-50 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 15-13 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 18 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Hey, I found a Freedom Tunes episode that perfectly encapsulates Roger Goodell!

This is Goodell in a nut shell. Pretend to care about women by having the players wear pink, yet run them onto the field to play a violent game on just three days’ rest. Hopefully Goodell will grow up to be a nice burger-flipper one day.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I backed off a big play on the Vikings last week because Jayden Daniels was returning from his hiatus. We didn’t know which Daniels we were getting, but it was going to be the first time that he was on the field with Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and a healthy offensive line all year.

Alas, the group didn’t last together for three quarters because Daniels suffered an injury just after halftime. It sounds like there’s a chance Daniels could play this week, but perhaps the Redskins will acknowledge tha enough is enough. There’s a decent chance Marcus Mariota will start this game, which won’t give the Redskins a big liability in this game because the Giants have a bottom-five defense in terms of EPA. The Giants have been atrocious against the run, while their secondary has surrendered lots of big plays.

It won’t all be rosy for the Redskins offense because Mariota really struggles when pressured. This was one of the selling points on backing the Vikings before the Daniels news. Mariota’s completion percentage drops about 30 points when pressured, which bodes poorly for this matchup because the Giants have some talented edge rushers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of injury-prone quarterbacks, Jaxson Dart was given the luxury of healing up last week. Dart returned from his concussion versus the Patriots, but wasn’t quite 100 percent. He should be back to his usual self in this game.

This is not good news for the Redskins, who have the slowest linebackers in the NFL. Dart will be able to run circles around them and expose a poor secondary with passes to his diminished group of receivers.

The Giants will also be able to run the ball without Dart. Devin Singletary is the only healthy back remaining, but Washington’ poor run defense won’t be able to do anything to stop him.

RECAP: It’s interesting that the Giants are favored by the same number as the Vikings were last week against the Redskins before the Daniels news broke. I find this odd because the Vikings are better than the Giants. Both teams have sketchy offenses, but Minnesota’s defense is far better than New York’s.

I loved the Vikings last week, but I don’t feel the same way about the Giants. They don’t deserve to be favored by nearly a field goal over the Redskins, even if Mariota starts. Mariota will do well against the Giants’ horrible defense, giving Washington a decent chance of winning this game. However, I’m still going to back the Giants because I trust Dart more than Mariota in an even game. I won’t be betting on either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Teams coming off shutout losses are 46-31 against the spread since 2010, so that would benefit the Redskins. However, Jayden Daniels will not play in this game, so it’s difficult to back Marcus Mariota in a near-pick ’em situation when his defense is so atrocious.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams had a Friday downgrade on the injury report. Deebo Samuel was DNP on Friday with an illness, while Dexter Lawrence was limited in practice with a hamstring. I still have no play on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Deebo Samuel will play, while Chris Rodriguez will not. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is -2.5 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Computer Model: Giants -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Some money on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 60% (71,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 25 of the last 38 meetings (except the 2022 tie).

Opening Line: Giants -2.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.