NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2025 – Late Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2025): 7-9 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,370)
2025 NFL Picks: 103-96-5 (-$735)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 14, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Who is going to quarterback the Colts? Daniel Jones is out for the year with a torn Achilles. Anthony Richardson has some sort of orbital injury. We thought Riley Leonard was going to take over as the primary quarterback, but he’s been ruled out with a torn knee ligament. The Colts are bringing in Philip Rivers for a tryout, which is a joke, considering that Rivers is 44 and hasn’t played in five years.

Perhaps the Colts could survive this game with a decrepit quarterback if they were playing one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but that’s certainly not the case. Seattle is No. 1 in defense. We recently saw what the Seahawks did to Max Brosmer, and they’ll treat Indianapolis’ quarterback similarly. The only way the Colts’ new quarterback can succeed if this suddenly turns into a Disney movie, and the quarterback gets magical pixie dust put on him.

The Colts will obviously turn to Jonathan Taylor, but that’s unlikely to work. Seattle has the best run defense in the NFL, and given the deficiency at quarterback, they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage, making things even more difficult for Taylor.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have the easiest matchup possible on defense, but their offense also looks promising in this contest. That’s because the Colts also have some major injury issues on this side of the ball.

I’m referring to the injuries to DeForest Buckner and Sauce Gardner, of course. Gardner would be extremely useful in this game against Jaxson Smith-Njigba, but with Gardner sidelined, the Colts have major problems against the pass. They couldn’t do anything to contain Trevor Lawrence last week, and they’ll have similar issues versus Sam Darnold and his Offensive Player of the Year teammate.

Buckner, meanwhile, is missed in regard to the run defense and pass rush. Darnold will have plenty of time in the pocket, and he’ll have more favorable down-and-distance situations because the Seahawks will be able to run on Indianapolis with their two talented backs.

RECAP: We made a huge play on the Seahawks when they battled Max Brosmer a couple of weeks ago. That was an easy win, with the Seahawks prevailing 26-0 despite the offense not playing well.

I imagine we’ll be making a similar bet in this game. This is just such a complete mismatch that we need to take advantage of it. The Colts are going to get such negative play at quarterback that they don’t have a chance against the league’s top defense. And it’s not like their defense has a favorable matchup against the Seattle offense.

This will be one of our biggest bets of the week. The unit count will depend on which quarterback the Colts go with, and where the spread goes as a result.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don’t know who will quarterback the Colts this week, but it sounds like it’s going to be Philip Rivers or Brett Rypien. In other words, an easy cover for the Seahawks.

SATURDAY NOTES: In an odd turn of events, Riley Leonard doesn’t have an injury designation, but that doesn’t mean that he’s not injured. He’ll be playing with a torn ligament in his knee, which sounds like he’ll suffer the same fate as Daniel Jones. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw Philip Rivers at some point. Meanwhile, the Colts will once again be missing their top two defenders, as DeForest Buckner will be out despite practicing on a limited basis all week. Meanwhile, right tackle Braden Smith will be out as well.

LOCKED IN: We’re going to lock in the Seahawks before -13.5 is no longer available. We can currently get -13.5 -115 at BetMGM, but that sportsbook is offering a 20-percent boost on NFL, up to $200, and three 25-percent boosts, up to $50. We’ll take advantage of that with this selection.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s news that Philip Rivers’ passes barely hit the ground in practice. This sounds like the same nonsense praise we heard of Max Brosmer heading into the Seahawks-Vikings game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Looks like we didn’t have to lock in this pick. The Seahawks are -13.5 -110, as the sharps haven’t come in on either side for some reason. The best line is -13.5 -110 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Seahawks have the Rams on Thursday.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -15.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -15.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Why aren’t people betting on the Seahawks?

Percentage of money on Seattle: 53% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Seahawks are 63-49 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 11-18 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -10.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 54 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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DENVER OFFENSE: I have to imagine that slotting the Broncos as a Group C team in my NFL Power Rankings has drawn the ire of some Denver fans, but I’m not a believer of the team despite the great record. I’m particularly not a believer in Bo Nix, at least not when it comes to the first three quarters. Nix has been clutch in some contests, but he’s been miserable in the beginning of many games.

The thing is, Nix hasn’t just struggled against tough opponents. He scored 10 and 17 offensive points against the Raiders in two meetings. He notched 13 against the Jets, and had no points against the Giants through nearly three quarters. And that brings me to my next point, which is that ever since he battled the Jets in London, Nix has faced nothing but soft defenses with one exception. Aside from the Texans, which was an ugly affair in which Denver won by three over Davis Mills, Nix has gone against the Jets (27th in defense), Giants (30th), Cowboys (28th), Raiders twice (26th), Chiefs (21st), and Redskins (32nd). No defense is better than 21st, and only one defense is better than 26th! And Nix failed to score very much against most of them!

The Packers are 16th in defense, but they’ve improved recently. Micah Parsons continues to be a terror, and he’ll cause problems for Nix. With Nix likely to throw off his back foot once more, there could be some turnovers forced by Green Bay’s defense, especially when considering that Green Bay’s ninth-ranked rush defense keeps Nix in unfavorable down-and-distance situations.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers don’t have the same sort of stagnant offense that the Broncos possess. They’re ranked third in the past two months. Some of that was with Tucker Kraft on the field, but the Packers have gotten some reinforcements to compensate for that loss. Jayden Reed returned last week, while Christian Watson was outstanding.

It’ll be more difficult for the Packers to move the ball on Denver’s excellent defense than it was in their past two games versus the beleaguered Detroit and Chicago defenses. However, the variety of weapons the Packers have at their disposal should help them in this matchup because it’s not like Patrick Surtain II can cover everyone. “No Cookie” Jordan Love tends to spread the ball around, so he can just avoid Surtain in most instances.

The Broncos aren’t quite a good against the run compared to the pass. They’re not bad versus the rush, but they’re just an above-average 11th. Josh Jacobs won’t have a great game by any means, but he could have enough positive runs to make Love’s life easier against the No. 1 sack team in the NFL.

RECAP: I have nothing against the Broncos from a personal standpoint, but I just don’t think they’re very good. They’ve nearly lost to so many bad teams, and their offense hasn’t been able to generate much in numerous matchup against pedestrian defenses. Now, they’ll be going against a defense that could be argued to be a top-10 unit. You always have to be wary when teams take a step up in competition, and that’s the case in this game.

The Packers, meanwhile, have shown us more lately. They’ve been a part of some underwhelming performances earlier in the year, but they’ve improved in recent games. They finally won by margin against the Vikings, and four days after that, they were up by 10 on three separate occasions in Detroit. Last week, they were ahead of the Bears throughout the afternoon. They’re catching fire at the right moment, so they should continue to play well in this big game.

Green Bay should be able to cover against Denver. Unless Nix suddenly has an amazing game against a tough defense, the Packers should be able to prevail because they’re the better team and aren’t favored by nearly enough as far as I’m concerned.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy and I had our biggest disagreement on this game. Here’s the video to the livestream:

SATURDAY NOTES: There are three injuries worth discussing. Josh Jacobs is questionable after going DNP-DNP-limited. Jacobs is a big name, but I wouldn’t remove my projected units from Green Bay because running back is a replaceable position, and Emanuel Wilson is a decent backup. Another fantasy player on the injury report is Pat Bryant, who will miss this game. Again, this won’t affect my wager, but Bryant is a talented receiver who has made strides recently. The most impactful absence could be Mike McGlinchey, who missed Friday’s practice with a shoulder injury. The Broncos have some great blockers, but McGlinchey being sidelined would be a big deal against Green Bay’s talented pass rush.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps jumped on the Broncos in the wake of the news that both Green Bay running backs are now questionable. If Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson are both out, we won’t be betting the Packers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson will play after all. I’m not convinced that they’re healthy, and the sharps are all over the Broncos, so I’m going to lay off this game. The best line is Packers -1 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -1.5.

Computer Model: Packers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Broncos are a huge public dogs.

Percentage of money on Denver: 70% (100,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Matt LaFleur is 63-47 ATS in the regular season.

Broncos are 35-19 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Packers -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Don’t look now, but the Saints may not be drafting a quarterback this April. Tyler Shough had some rough performances to begin his career, but he was brilliant against the Buccaneers. He had one other good performance since taking over for Spencer Rattler, and that was against these Panthers.

It’s easy to see why Shough would perform well verus Carolina. The Panthers don’t generate much quarterback pressure and struggle against the pass as a result. The Panthers had no answer for Chris Olave, and that was with Jaycee Horn on the field. Horn was lost in the Monday night defeat against the 49ers, so Shough could be even better in the rematch.

The Saints also ran well against the Panthers in the prior matchup. Alvin Kamara did most of the work, but it’s unclear if he’ll be available for this game. Still, Devin Neal could do well against the league’s 27th-ranked run defense.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young didn’t play last week, but the last time we saw him, he was torching the Rams mercilessly. Young was unstoppable in Week 13 in a shocking upset over Los Angeles. The Rams have one of the best defenses in the NFL, while the Saints typically can’t stop anyone, so this figures to be a great performance for Young, right?

No, not really. I wouldn’t count Young out from having a solid performance, but he was able to benefit from the Rams being a no-show. Just two weeks earlier, Young was anemic against this very New Orleans defense. He threw for just 124 yards on a 5.0 YPA with no touchdowns and an interception. I believe this was the real Young; not the one who took advantage of a completely disinterested team prior to his bye.

Young didn’t have much help from his rushing attack in the prior matchup between these teams, which is not a surprise because the Saints are usually solid against the run. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard combined for 69 yards on 21 carries, which is similar to what we could see this time.

RECAP: I can’t say I have much interest in betting this game. If I had to choose a side, it would be the Saints because I don’t think the Panthers deserve to be road favorites in this matchup, especially with New Orleans winning the previous meeting. However, I don’t want to back a horrible team coming off a win. Teams like the Saints are usually flat following wins, so under normal circumstances, I’d be eager to fade them.

However, these are not normal circumstances, and that’s because the Saints are battling another bad team coming off a win. The Panthers have had two weeks to hear about how great they are because they defeated the Rams. I’d argue that this an even worse spot because the Panthers have had two weeks to be complacent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I’m still leaning toward the Saints, but don’t like them enough to bet them in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Panthers and Saints will be getting key players back, with Jaycee Horn and Taliese Fuaga returning for their respective teams. Alvin Kamara will still be out, but I’m going to continue leaning toward New Orleans.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ve moved to two units on the Saints. They look good versus the overrated Panthers. Hopefully we get a +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t played this game. Unfortunately, we couldn’t get a solid +3. The best line is +2.5 -104 at Caesars. You can Get $1,000 First Bet on Caesars by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -2.5.

Computer Model: Saints -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Tons of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 70% (93,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 14 of the last 20 meetings.

Opening Line: Panthers -2.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams were electric last week. Bouncing back from an embarrassing loss to the Panthers, the Rams were fully focused and dynamic against the Cardinals. On their first five drives, they scored four touchdowns and a field goal, and they barely even got to third down. They could not be stopped whatsoever.

The Lions are going to have similar issues. They’ve had major problems stopping the pass, and despite their win last Thursday, we saw that against the Cowboys. Despite CeeDee Lamb being knocked out of the game, the Cowboys still were able to score into the 30s with Dak Prescott constantly hooking up with someone named Ryan Flournoy. Now, the Lions will be battling an even better, healthier offense without Brian Branch, who got hurt last week.

Detroit can’t even count on stopping the run. The team is 18th against the rush over the past two months, so Kyren Williams and Blake Corum will be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground to put Matthew Stafford into more favorable down-and-distance situations.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions won’t be able to stop the Rams, so they’ll have to keep up with them in a shootout. On paper, that seems like a possibility, but it’s unclear if that will be the case when the teams take the field.

There’s one major problem for the Lions in this matchup that will prevent them from successfully engaging the Rams in a shootout, and that would be the pressure that Los Angeles can generate. The Rams have a ferocious pass rush, which is bad news for Jared Goff, who typically handles pressure very poorly. When kept clean, Goff completes 80.1 percent of his passes on a 8.8 YPA with 25 touchdowns and three interceptions. When pressured, Goff’s completion percentage drops to 46.3 on a YPA of 6.3, with one touchdown and two interceptions. Obviously, all quarterbacks are worse when pressured, but as you’ll see later down the page, there are other quarterbacks who have very minimal drop-offs when defenders flood the backfield.

For Detroit’s offense to work, Goff will need to lean on Jahmyr Gibbs to ease some of the pressure off of him. That might be possible. The Rams have had a very inconsistent rush defense. Sometimes, they’re brilliant, but sometimes, they struggle to defend the run. Overall, they’re fifth against the run, so they’re better often than not.

RECAP: We’ve been backing the Rams for most weeks this year, and this week won’t be any different. They’re the best team in football, and they will cover the spread more often than not as a result.

Obviously, you need more than that to bet a team, and that would be the mismatches that the Rams have on both sides of the ball. Their pass offense is too much for Detroit’s injury-ravaged secondary to handle, while their pass rush will overwhelm Goff and force some turnovers.

One could argue that this spread is too high, but I don’t think so. The Lions can beat mediocre or bad teams like the Cowboys, but they’re not that good, which is why they’ve won only one of their five games that they’ve played against Group A and B teams this year. In those four losses to Group A-B teams, they’ve lost by 14, 13, 7, and 7, all of which would cover the spread for the Rams in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public loves the Lions, yet this spread continues to move in the Rams’ direction. That’s music to my ears.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions look like they’re going to be down their top three safeties, which will hurt against Matthew Stafford and his receivers. The Lions also have some health issues on the offensive line. There are a couple of questionable guards, while Taylor Decker was DNP all week. I suspect Decker will play because he’s tough, but he likely won’t be 100 percent. As for the Rams, Davante Adams missed the first two days of practice, but he doesn’t carry an injury designation.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Rams, and I may consider the -13.5 alt line if we get a good price.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the Rams aggressively up to -6. There are no viable -5.5s available, with the best line being -6 -105 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

If you’re into double revenge for the Rams.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -4.5.

Computer Model: Rams -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The Lions are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 80% (108,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Dan Campbell is 18-4 ATS as an underdog of 4+.

Opening Line: Rams -4.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers needed a bye earlier in the season when half of their roster was out of the lineup, but it’s better late than never. The week off could potentially do wonders for Brock Purdy, who struggled prior to the bye. Purdy fired three interceptions in the opening half versus the Panthers, though he didn’t get a chance to make any blunders the following week when the Browns gift-wrapped some touchdowns to the 49ers on a trio of short fields.

Purdy didn’t have to solve Cleveland’s terrific defense, but he won’t have to do much thinking against the Titans. Tennessee has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Purdy will have all the time in the world to operate in the pocket. He’ll be able to target George Kittle heavily, and he’ll have success doing so. We know that because Harold Fannin just had a monster game against this Tennessee, so that bodes well for Kittle.

And then, there’s Christian McCaffrey, who has a solid matchup against Tennessee’s 23rd-ranked rush defense. We just saw Quinshon Judkins break free for a long reception against the Titans, so McCaffrey should be able to generate tons of receiving yardage.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It was shocking to see the Titans score 31 points against the Browns last week. They hadn’t even scored more than 24 points against any team, so 31 points versus Cleveland was startling. Was this a sign of things to come, or just a fluke?

Sorry, Titans fans, but that was a fluke. The Browns didn’t show up to play this game for whatever reason, allowing Tony Pollard to break some long runs. Pollard won’t be doing that in this game, assuming that the 49ers are focused. San Francisco is a solid 10th against the run, so Pollard will revert to being the washed-up runner we’ve watched all year.

While the 49ers are strong against the run, they’re not as good versus the pass because they don’t get to the quarterback as a result of all of their defensive line injuries. However, that may not matter because Cam Ward tends to hold on to the ball for an eternity. If he continues to do that, it might give the 49ers just enough time to get some defenders in his face and force some turnovers.

RECAP: I mentioned earlier that the 49ers will clamp down on Pollard if they’re focused. Will they be? I’d guess that they would. They have nothing to look ahead to next week – they battle the Colts – and they’re not exactly looking behind either because they beat the Browns prior to the bye. That’s not exactly an impressive win.

I like the 49ers as a fade of Tennessee. It’s fine to bet against the Titans in general, but that’s especially true following a victory. Horrible teams like Tennessee have an abysmal track record following victories. The Titans lost to the horrible Raiders, 20-10, after their other win this year.

One reservation I have is that the 49ers don’t win by these sorts of margins all that often, but I investigated that and found that the 49ers have four victories by double digits this season. And while it’s true that two of those double-digit wins were by 10 and 11 – which wouldn’t cover this spread – those games were against teams that are far better than the Titans. It’s far easier to crush Tennessee, after all, than it is to do so against the Panthers and Jaxson Dart-led Giants.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think I like this game a little bit less than earlier in the week, but I’m still willing to bet three units on the 49ers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers will be getting Tatum Bethune back from injury. He’s not a household name, but he’s been solid as a replacement for Fred Warner. I still like the 49ers a good deal.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Christian McCaffrey has been downgraded to questionable. He’s still expected to play, but he could be limited. Given that, I can’t bet the 49ers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Dan Moore is out, while Christian McCaffrey is active. After some thinking, I’ll be placing two units on the 49ers. The best line is -12.5 -105 at BetMGM. The sharps have not played this game.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Titans are a horrible team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -12.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -12.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -12.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Slight lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 66% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -12.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Foggy, 60 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 14, including Ryan Flournoy over receiving yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I say this all the time, but it’s important to determine how quarterbacks perform against the blitz leading up to a game against the Vikings. Brian Flores blitzes more than any defensive coordinator in the NFL, so if a quarterback struggles versus pressure more so than most, then they don’t have a chance against his schemes.

Dak Prescott certainly does not struggle against the blitz. In fact, he is one of the best quarterbacks when seeing additional rushers. His completion percentage and YPA are both higher when blitzed compared to when he’s not blitzed. Of course, not all blitzes are created equal, but Prescott is far better when pressured compared to most quarterbacks. Last week, when discussing Marcus Mariota, I pointed out that Mariota’s completion percentage drops 28 percent. Earlier, I discussed how Jared Goff’s numbers plummet when pressured. Prescott’s completion percentage falls just 11 percent when he’s pressured, and his YPA actually rises by 1.1 yards.

With all of this in mind, Prescott should have plenty of success against Minnesota’s pass defense, especially if CeeDee Lamb can return to action. Lamb suffered a concussion, but with the mini-bye, there’s a chance that he’ll be able to play. But even if he can’t, Jake Ferguson and Ryan Flournoy have shown up that they can step up. I would also expect George Pickens to redeem himself from the dreadful, low-effort performance he displayed against the Lions as a result of getting tons of criticism from everyone.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Anyone surprised by how J.J. McCarthy performed last week didn’t read this Web site. I loved the Vikings last week before the Jayden Daniels announcement, and a major reason for that was McCarthy’s easy matchup. Prior to battling Washington, McCarthy hadn’t faced a defense ranked worse than 14th in EPA after he returned from injury. The Redskins are 32nd, so McCarthy was able to torch them easily.

While the Cowboys have made improvements to their defense by acquiring Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, they are 28th in defensive EPA over the past two months. The Lions did whatever they pleased last Thursday, and while McCarthy won’t be as good as Goff was, he’ll be able to orchestrate enough scoring drives to keep this game close.

The Williams and Wilson trades have improved Dallas’ run defense more than anything. The Cowboys will be able to somewhat limit Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, but the two runners are talented and should have some success in this contest.

RECAP: I wish we had bet the Vikings last week. That was a golden opportunity before the Daniels announcement. This isn’t as good of an opportunity, but I like Minnesota.

McCarthy is still seen as a dreadful quarterback, and while he performed as such against many opponents, he has shown that he can dissect poor defenses. With that in mind, this line is too high. The Cowboys have the superior offense, but the Vikings sport the far better defense and coaching staff. I think these teams are close to even, so with the Cowboys having extra time to prepare, this line should be close to -3. I could buy -3.5 or -4, but -6 is absurd.

The only thing I don’t like about this game is how well Prescott handles the blitz, but that doesn’t change the fact that this spread is bloated. I like the Vikings a bit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is beginning to move off +6 toward to +5.5, so that could be an indication that the sharps are on the Vikings.

SATURDAY NOTES: CeeDee Lamb doesn’t have an injury designation, so the extra time from the mini-bye helped greatly. Jake Ferguson is questionable after going limited-DNP-limited in practice this week. Meanwhile, Christian Darrisaw is questionable after barely practicing this week. It’s going to be difficult to defend a bet on the Vikings without Darrisaw on the field.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Christian Darrisaw’s status will be huge for this game. If we have a great afternoon, I could see myself betting the Vikings for a small amount if Darrisaw is active. Check back around 7:45 p.m. for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I said I could see myself betting the Vikings if Christian Darrisaw were healthy. He’s not. He’s inactive. The sharps have been betting the Vikings, but I can’t do it. The best line is +5.5 -110 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -7.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

Everyone is on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 71% (96,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Dak Prescott is 41-33 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Poopsburgh, where tonight, the Miami Marlins take on the Poopsburgh Poopers. I know their name is the Pittsburgh Penguins, but I hate them because they think they can invade my state and steal the glory from my Philadelphia Eagles, so they will forever be known as the Poopers!

Emmitt: Thanks, Poopers. You look a much differentlessly than the guy who was here last day. He was a guy with long yellow hair who always complain about holiday. Her body also have some sexuals, but you have nothing but fatness.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, if you’re not careful you’re going to make the cut on my revenge list, which I have in the basement next to Mother’s lipstick. First of all, my name is not Poopers. Second, that was not me. That was someone filling in for me while I got sentenced for my crime. And third, Mother said that if I hear the word “sexuals,” then I will have to get my virgin ears washed out. What is a virgin anyway? New Daddy, do you know?

Jay Cutler: Something you will always be, my friend.

Tollefson: Kevin, pay no mind to your stepfather. I will make sure that you are not a virgin by the end of the week. Kevin, I’ve been waiting for this day to come, but I am going to gift you one of my female slaves. I know, I know, you can’t accept my generous gift because your mom won’t let you touch women, so I’m here to introduce my new product, Woman Slave Timeshares. I’m excited about this product. For a limited time, you – yes, you – can invest in a female slave and have her cook and clean naked on my property for you! She will be hard at work cooking and cleaning my home while thinking of you. Ever need a female slave to make you a sandwich? For $199 per month, you can have a female slave make me a sandwich while she’s thinking of you! This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, Kevin. Don’t miss out!

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I’m excited about your offer, but I’ve already spent my allowance on the newest Nick Foles bobbleheads. Besides, Mother will know when other women are thinking of me. She said they’re the devil, and Mother knows what the devil is doing and thinking at all times. Speaking of the devil, Clarissa Thompkins has a sideline report.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Sideline Report. Ben Roethlisberger was just arrested for having a sexual encounter in the bathroom, likely with Dan Marino. Back to you, Sideline Report.

Kevin Reilly: HEY, CLARISSA, MY NAME IS NOT SIDELINE REPORT! WHY ARE YOU SO UNPROFESSIONAL THAT YOU DON’T KNOW YOUR COWORKERS’ NAME!? I KNOW YOUR NAME!

Mina Kimes: Kevin, we need to have a discussion. I’m sitting here, every week, and I’m being oppressed more and more. This is Week 15, and no one has yet to acknowledge my great analysis of Geno Smith being a top-one quarterback in the NFL. I am a Yale graduate, so this is special analysis that is going to waste because no one respects me as an Asian female analyst. Also, please don’t criticize a fellow female NFL analyst even though she’s not Asian for not getting you name correct. Women are way too oppressed in the workplace to get the names of coworkers correct most of the time, and it’s because of evil cis men like you. No wonder you’ll never acknowledge my Geno Smith analysis!

Kevin Reilly: Who the heck is Geno Smith?

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST BELITTLE OUR AMAZING FEMALE ASIAN NFL ANALYST? HOW DARE YOU NOT KNOW WHO SHE’S TALKING ABOUT IN HER ANALYSIS FROM THE ENTIRE YEAR!? I FEEL SO OPPRESSED FOR HER THAT I’LL HAVE TO SHOW MY CLEAVAGE ONLINE AGAIN!

Kevin Reilly: What is cleavage? Why are people saying things I don’t understand!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about things that Kevin doesn’t understand, Kevin. Let’s begin with cleavage, Kevin. Sounds like your mom would think that’s the devil, Kevin. Next is Geno Smith, Kevin. He’s a quarterback in the NFL, Kevin. How about anything to do with women, Kevin? Or what about anything to do with anything, Kevin?

Kevin Reilly: I KNOW SOME THINGS, CHARLES DAVIS! I KNOW NICK FOLES IS GREAT, AND MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ARE THE BEST TEAM, AND YOU ARE A POOPER, CHARLES DAVIS! We’ll be back right after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Where did that come from? Aaron Rodgers couldn’t complete a single pass over the line of scrimmage until the third quarter when he battled Buffalo two weeks ago. Then, last week, he torched a better statistical defense while playing in Baltimore. Rodgers, at times, looked like the former MVP of the league. It was completely inexplicable.

If we get to see that Rodgers again, I like his chances of doing well against the Dolphins. Miami has a pass-funnel defense as a result of a poor pass rush and deficiencies in the secondary. With DK Metcalf now fully healthy again, Rodgers will have a good chance to connect on numerous deep throws to his stud receiver once again.

It’s unlikely, however, that the Steelers will be able to run on Miami. Despite how bad they are against the pass, the Dolphins actually handle the run incredibly well. In the past two months, the Dolphins rank second in ground defense, behind only Seattle.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Steelers aren’t exactly nearly as good versus the run. We recently saw them surrender nearly 300 rushing yards to the Bills. They played better against the rush in Baltimore, but Derrick Henry seems completely washed up.

The Steelers are 30th against the run over the past two months, ranked over the Jets and Giants. Miami would love to deploy De’Von Achane against Pittsburgh, but Achane suffered a rib injury late in last week’s game. Jaylen Wright looked good in relief, but he’s obviously not nearly as talented as Achane.

If the Dolphins can’t consistently pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, it’ll be difficult for them to have an effective scoring attack in this game. The Steelers can generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, while the Dolphins really struggle to pass protect. It’s hard to trust Tua Tagovailoa under these circumstances, though he should have some connections to Darren Waller because Pittsburgh struggles to cover tight ends.

RECAP: Backing Mike Tomlin off a win, especially when he’s favored by more than a field goal, is generally seen as a poor situation, but it’s surprisingly not. Tomlin is a fair 33-29 against the spread in these situations at home. He’s far worse in these spots on the road (7-23 ATS), but he can coach his team to victories as a host.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, we can back the Steelers. Fading the Dolphins may seem intimidating right now because they’ve won five of their previous six games, but they’ve beaten mostly crap. They won against the Falcons in one of their many flat spots. They needed to go into overtime to dispatch the crappy Redskins, who would’ve won had they not muffed a punt very late in the game. They needed a pick-two to get by the Saints, who otherwise would have kicked a potential game-winning field goal on the ensuing drive. And last week, the Dolphins had the luxury of battling Brady Cook because Tyrod Taylor got hurt after attempting only four passes.

Of the four teams I mentioned, none are as good as Pittsburgh. The Steelers aren’t even that good, but they’re an average football team, which is better than what the Falcons, Redskins, Saints, and Brady Cook-led Jets are. This is a step up in competition, and the Dolphins are a bad team coming off a win, so they seem like a relatively easy fade in this game, especially given the weather implications. Tagovailoa has extremely little success in cold-weather games, especially when battling tougher defenses, and it’s expected to be in the teens on Monday night.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned earlier that Andy and I had our biggest disagreement regarding the Packers-Broncos game. This may have been our biggest agreement. We both love the Steelers.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was a major change in this game since the Thursday Thoughts. That would be the lung injury T.J. Watt suffered that sent him to the hospital. Watt won’t be available, which really hurts the Steelers. Also, Cameron Heyward and Derrick Harmon missed Friday’s practice, so I don’t know how I can justify any sort of bet on the Steelers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Derrick Harmon is questionable heading into this game, but Cameron Heyward will play. Without T.J. Watt, however, it’s tough to back the Steelers.

SAME-GAME PARLAY: We’re playing this on BetMGM, which has a 30-percent profit boost. We’re going with Darren Waller over 23.5 receiving yards, Kenneth Gainwell over 3.5 receptions, and Jaylen Warren under 49.5 rushing yards. This $25 parlay pays $141.31.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No T.J. Watt or Derrick Harmon for the Steelers, which is pretty rough. The sharps took the Dolphins at +3.5 in the wake of the Watt news, but haven’t touched this game at -3. If you still like the Steelers, the best line is -3 -117 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.

The Dolphins are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 57% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 44-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Steelers are 14-6 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 20 instances.

Aaron Rodgers is 139-104 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Clear, 20 degrees. Light wind.