2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Ravens at Bengals

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I’ve been so incredibly disappointed with the Ravens over the past couple of weeks. I thought there was a good chance they’d be able to run the table and win the division easily, but they’ve dropped two in a row at home against the Bengals and Steelers. Perhaps this should have been expected because the Ravens struggled to distance themselves from the Browns and Jets prior to their two-game losing streak.

Lamar Jackson can’t run effectively because of some sort of leg injury, and when he can’t run, he’s not a very good quarterback. He has an easy matchup this week, at least on paper, but he couldn’t take advantage of this spot two weeks ago. Also, it’s worth noting that the Bengals have improved defensively recently. They put the clamps on Drake Maye and Jackson prior to Week 14, and in Week 14, they held the Bills to 25 points if you exclude the pick-six and the points scored off the ensuing tipped interception. If Trey Hendrickson can somehow return this week, that’ll improve things even more.

Something the Ravens forgot to do in the Thanksgiving night game against the Bengals was run the ball. Derrick Henry barely touched the ball, even when the game was close. That was inexplicable play-calling because the Bengals are so weak against the run. However, Henry seems like he’s washed up at this stage of his career, so feeding him the ball against this poor run defense may not even produce much.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow had an excellent return from injury in that Thanksgiving night game. He began slowly, but he carved up Baltimore’s defense with ease in the second half. That seems less impressive now after what Aaron Rodgers did to the Ravens, but Burrow was far better versus the Bills last week. He looked like the Burrow of old, aside from those two fluky interceptions.

Burrow should continue to improve, especially in the rematch. The Ravens’ defense has been pathetic recently, and its inability to generate any pressure on the quarterback has been the primary issue. That should continue to persist, allowing Burrow to thrive.

One area in which the Bengals won’t succeed is running the ball, given that Baltimore has been third versus the rush over the past two months. Chase Brown won’t do much on the ground, but he could be used as a weapon as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: I don’t understand why the Ravens are favored on the road. Their defense has been atrocious recently, while Jackson is not healthy. I thought there was a chance that would change because of the mini-bye, but Jackson wasn’t any healthier.

There’s always a chance Jackson’s health could improve this week, but that won’t change the fact that Henry is washed up. There are serious questions about Baltimore’s offense, and we can’t say that it has a big edge versus Cincinnati’s defense anymore because the Bengals have played better on this side of the ball.

The Bengals are the play in the rematch. I can’t say that this will be a big bet because of the uncertainty surrounding Jackson, but I’ll feel better about this wager if we were able to get +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: For the first time in a month-plus, Lamar Jackson wasn’t DNP or limited with an injury on Wednesday. Instead, he was DNP on a Wednesday with “rest.” Tee Higgins, by the way, is in danger of missing this game, but he didn’t play against the Ravens in the first meeting.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -3.

Computer Model: Bengals -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Bengals are a big public dog.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 79% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Joe Burrow is 19-9 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.5.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Sunny, 13 degrees. Light wind.