2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Vikings at Cowboys

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

If you didn’t catch it, I posted live bets during Week 14, including Ryan Flournoy over receiving yards. I’ll be posting more live bets on X because it takes time to upload things to the site, so by the time I do, the line may be stale. Follow me @walterfootball for those live betting updates.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I say this all the time, but it’s important to determine how quarterbacks perform against the blitz leading up to a game against the Vikings. Brian Flores blitzes more than any defensive coordinator in the NFL, so if a quarterback struggles versus pressure more so than most, then they don’t have a chance against his schemes.

Dak Prescott certainly does not struggle against the blitz. In fact, he is one of the best quarterbacks when seeing additional rushers. His completion percentage and YPA are both higher when blitzed compared to when he’s not blitzed. Of course, not all blitzes are created equal, but Prescott is far better when pressured compared to most quarterbacks. Last week, when discussing Marcus Mariota, I pointed out that Mariota’s completion percentage drops 28 percent. Earlier, I discussed how Jared Goff’s numbers plummet when pressured. Prescott’s completion percentage falls just 11 percent when he’s pressured, and his YPA actually rises by 1.1 yards.

With all of this in mind, Prescott should have plenty of success against Minnesota’s pass defense, especially if CeeDee Lamb can return to action. Lamb suffered a concussion, but with the mini-bye, there’s a chance that he’ll be able to play. But even if he can’t, Jake Ferguson and Ryan Flournoy have shown up that they can step up. I would also expect George Pickens to redeem himself from the dreadful, low-effort performance he displayed against the Lions as a result of getting tons of criticism from everyone.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Anyone surprised by how J.J. McCarthy performed last week didn’t read this Web site. I loved the Vikings last week before the Jayden Daniels announcement, and a major reason for that was McCarthy’s easy matchup. Prior to battling Washington, McCarthy hadn’t faced a defense ranked worse than 14th in EPA after he returned from injury. The Redskins are 32nd, so McCarthy was able to torch them easily.

While the Cowboys have made improvements to their defense by acquiring Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, they are 28th in defensive EPA over the past two months. The Lions did whatever they pleased last Thursday, and while McCarthy won’t be as good as Goff was, he’ll be able to orchestrate enough scoring drives to keep this game close.

The Williams and Wilson trades have improved Dallas’ run defense more than anything. The Cowboys will be able to somewhat limit Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones, but the two runners are talented and should have some success in this contest.

RECAP: I wish we had bet the Vikings last week. That was a golden opportunity before the Daniels announcement. This isn’t as good of an opportunity, but I like Minnesota.

McCarthy is still seen as a dreadful quarterback, and while he performed as such against many opponents, he has shown that he can dissect poor defenses. With that in mind, this line is too high. The Cowboys have the superior offense, but the Vikings sport the far better defense and coaching staff. I think these teams are close to even, so with the Cowboys having extra time to prepare, this line should be close to -3. I could buy -3.5 or -4, but -6 is absurd.

The only thing I don’t like about this game is how well Prescott handles the blitz, but that doesn’t change the fact that this spread is bloated. I like the Vikings a bit.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is beginning to move off +6 toward to +5.5, so that could be an indication that the sharps are on the Vikings.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -3.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -7.5.

Computer Model: Cowboys -5.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Decent action on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 68% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Dak Prescott is 41-33 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.