2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Falcons at Buccaneers

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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Week 14 Analysis: We had a great week overall. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Jets, 2 units (loss): I’m including this pick because it was originally three units, but was dropped to two units because of the line change from +3 to +2.5. The sharps were way off on this game, or so it seems. In reality, the Jets would’ve had a chance at a comeback if Tyrod Taylor threw more than four passes. Taylor hurt his groin, giving way to Brady Cook, who was Max Brosmer bad. I hope Cook starts again, so we can fade the Jets.

Ravens, 4 units (loss): I assumed that Lamar Jackson would be healthier after having nine days off, and I also assumed that Aaron Rodgers would still be hurt. Both of my assumptions were wrong, and thus, we lost four units.

Jaguars, 5 units (win): Daniel Jones tore his Achilles at the end of the first quarter, but he was already playing on a fractured leg, so he was on borrowed time. Riley Leonard did OK in relief.

Rams, 5 units (win): Not only did we win five units on this game; we also had Rams -20.5 +330.

Texans, 3 units (win): The sharps loved the Chiefs, but we were able to win with the Texans in a game that was mostly never in doubt.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers were a massive disappointment in last week’s loss to the Saints. They somehow scored just 20 points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They had an opportunity to win the game on the final drive, but went incomplete twice and short of the first-down marker on fourth down. This knocked out a high percentage of those still available in Circa Survivor.

I didn’t think this was too surprising. It was a bad spot for the Buccaneers with a Thursday game coming up, and Baker Mayfield isn’t 100 percent. The offensive line also dealt with some injuries; Tristan Wirfs missed the game, while Ben Bredeson was knocked out for the afternoon. Luckily for the Buccaneers, they have a matchup against an Atlanta defense that has been worse in the previous month-and-a-half compared to the first month-and-a-half. The Falcons are especially porous against the run, so Mayfield will be able to rely on Bucky Irving to pick up chunks of yards.

As for Mayfield himself, it’ll depend on if he’s healthier after three days off, and if his offensive linemen return from injury. The Falcons can get after the quarterback, so not having Wirfs will be detrimental to Mayfield’s chances, especially if he’s still enduring through an injury.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Buccaneers defense can’t be exempt from taking any blame for last week’s loss. They allowed Tyler Shough to have his best game. This wasn’t too much of a surprise either because Tampa Bay is 22nd in defense. The team has not been generating much pressure on the quarterback, and its ability to stop the run has regressed this year.

With that in mind, Bijan Robinson should have a strong performance. The Buccaneers put the clamps on Robinson as a rusher in the opening-week battle, but things have changed greatly as far as Tampa Bay’s run defense is concerned.

The Falcons should be able to throw on the Buccaneers as well. It’s unclear if Drake London will play, though it seems doubtful, given that there are only three days between this game and the previous one. However, Kyle Pitts has routinely dominated the Buccaneers. He’s coming off two big games, so he should be able to do that again.

RECAP: If this game were on Sunday, I could buy the Buccaneers getting healthier and being able to win this game by margin. Three days of rest is not enough time to reliably recover, however, so it seems unlikely that Mayfield and Wirfs will suddenly be close to 100 percent.

I’d take the Falcons as a bet, but I can’t bring myself to wager on these stupid Thursday night games. These Thursday contests are not real football games, and they are very difficult to predict as a result. The Falcons seem like the play, but I don’t trust Raheem Morris to devise any sort of game plan on just three days of preparation (or even three years of preparation, for that matter.)

Our Week 15 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are some significant questionable players in this game, including Mike Evans and Kyle Pitts. I’d like Pitts’ overs, but he may not play in this game, so we won’t have too confident of a same-game parlay in the afternoon.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -4.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -6.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Slight lean on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 62% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Falcons have won 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Road Team is 150-103 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Raheem Morris is 3-7 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Buccaneers are 46-80 ATS at home in the previous 126 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -5.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Clear, 59 degrees. Light wind.