2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Browns at Bears

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai must be licking their chops if they’ve watched any film on the Titans-Browns game. Tony Pollard trampled through Cleveland’s defense with ease. Given that the Bears run block better than all but two teams in the NFL, Swift and Monangai must think that they’re both going to break the all-time single-game rushing record.

Obviously, that won’t be the case. The Browns were stout against the run heading into the Tennessee game, but must have had a low-energy effort for some reason. Sure, the team lost Maliek Collins to injury, but I don’t think he could have made that much of a difference. Perhaps I’m wrong, and if I am, Swift and Monangai will combine for 300 or so rushing yards.

Caleb Williams will be hoping that his two runners will pick up huge chunks of yardage because he has struggled lately. He was bailed out by Swift and Monangai in the Black Friday game, and he was finally exposed versus the Packers, where he made a horrible throw into the end zone. Williams is protected well, but no amount of protection will allow the Bears to avoid the inevitable, which will be Myles Garrett chasing after Williams at various points in this game. We’ll see if that translates into some turnovers.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While we know the Browns can generate a great amount of pressure because of Garrett and other players on the front, the Bears cannot do that. They’re dead last in pressures, so Shedeur Sanders won’t have to drift 15 yards back in the pocket. Not that he’s done that very much lately, but regression could always happen.

Sanders had a solid game against the Titans. That was an easy matchup, but it’s not like Chicago has a fierce defense either. The Bears have gotten some players back from injury, however, including Jaylon Johnson, so I wouldn’t expect Jerry Jeudy to have a deep touchdown again. Harold Fannin could have a solid game, given that the Bears are a middling team when it comes to defending tight ends.

The Browns also project to do well in their running game, though that’s misleading. Quinshon Judkins will be going against Chicago’s 21st-ranked run defense, but the Bears should be better against ground attacks with T.J. Edwards returning from injury.

RECAP: If Cleveland’s run defense isn’t broken as a result of the Collins injury – and Collins isn’t even that good against the run – then the Browns are the right side. The Browns should be able to bounce back from a flat spot and an embarrassing loss to play hard against the Bears. Their defense should be able to rattle Williams, who has been shaky recently.

This is also a horrible spot for the Bears. Chicago has played a couple of tough games against the Eagles and Packers. Following this “easy” contest against the 3-10 Browns, they have to once again battle the Packers. After that, they’ll take on the 49ers and Lions. This is a classic sandwich situation.

Given that this line is too high – I don’t trust Williams or Chicago’s defense – and the poor spot the Bears are in, I’m inclined to back the Browns for 2-3 units. I don’t fully trust Sanders, but it’s not like he’ll be battling a tough defense that could give him lots of problems.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t know if I’ll be betting the Browns after all. Half of their starters were DNP in Wednesday’s practice. If this persists, Cleveland is going to have a skeleton crew on the field for this game, which will make things easy for Chicago.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

After this “easy” game, the Bears take on the Packers, 49ers, and Lions.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -7.5.

Computer Model: Bears -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 55% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears.

Opening Line: Bears -7.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 12 degrees. Light wind.