2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Packers at Broncos

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

DENVER OFFENSE: I have to imagine that slotting the Broncos as a Group C team in my NFL Power Rankings has drawn the ire of some Denver fans, but I’m not a believer of the team despite the great record. I’m particularly not a believer in Bo Nix, at least not when it comes to the first three quarters. Nix has been clutch in some contests, but he’s been miserable in the beginning of many games.

The thing is, Nix hasn’t just struggled against tough opponents. He scored 10 and 17 offensive points against the Raiders in two meetings. He notched 13 against the Jets, and had no points against the Giants through nearly three quarters. And that brings me to my next point, which is that ever since he battled the Jets in London, Nix has faced nothing but soft defenses with one exception. Aside from the Texans, which was an ugly affair in which Denver won by three over Davis Mills, Nix has gone against the Jets (27th in defense), Giants (30th), Cowboys (28th), Raiders twice (26th), Chiefs (21st), and Redskins (32nd). No defense is better than 21st, and only one defense is better than 26th! And Nix failed to score very much against most of them!

The Packers are 16th in defense, but they’ve improved recently. Micah Parsons continues to be a terror, and he’ll cause problems for Nix. With Nix likely to throw off his back foot once more, there could be some turnovers forced by Green Bay’s defense, especially when considering that Green Bay’s ninth-ranked rush defense keeps Nix in unfavorable down-and-distance situations.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers don’t have the same sort of stagnant offense that the Broncos possess. They’re ranked third in the past two months. Some of that was with Tucker Kraft on the field, but the Packers have gotten some reinforcements to compensate for that loss. Jayden Reed returned last week, while Christian Watson was outstanding.

It’ll be more difficult for the Packers to move the ball on Denver’s excellent defense than it was in their past two games versus the beleaguered Detroit and Chicago defenses. However, the variety of weapons the Packers have at their disposal should help them in this matchup because it’s not like Patrick Surtain II can cover everyone. “No Cookie” Jordan Love tends to spread the ball around, so he can just avoid Surtain in most instances.

The Broncos aren’t quite a good against the run compared to the pass. They’re not bad versus the rush, but they’re just an above-average 11th. Josh Jacobs won’t have a great game by any means, but he could have enough positive runs to make Love’s life easier against the No. 1 sack team in the NFL.

RECAP: I have nothing against the Broncos from a personal standpoint, but I just don’t think they’re very good. They’ve nearly lost to so many bad teams, and their offense hasn’t been able to generate much in numerous matchup against pedestrian defenses. Now, they’ll be going against a defense that could be argued to be a top-10 unit. You always have to be wary when teams take a step up in competition, and that’s the case in this game.

The Packers, meanwhile, have shown us more lately. They’ve been a part of some underwhelming performances earlier in the year, but they’ve improved in recent games. They finally won by margin against the Vikings, and four days after that, they were up by 10 on three separate occasions in Detroit. Last week, they were ahead of the Bears throughout the afternoon. They’re catching fire at the right moment, so they should continue to play well in this big game.

Green Bay should be able to cover against Denver. Unless Nix suddenly has an amazing game against a tough defense, the Packers should be able to prevail because they’re the better team and aren’t favored by nearly enough as far as I’m concerned.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Andy and I had our biggest disagreement on this game. Here’s the video to the livestream:

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Packers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -1.5.

Computer Model: Packers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

The Broncos are a huge public dogs.

Percentage of money on Denver: 75% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Matt LaFleur is 63-47 ATS in the regular season.

Broncos are 35-19 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Packers -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.