2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Dolphins at Steelers

The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to the city of Poopsburgh, where tonight, the Miami Marlins take on the Poopsburgh Poopers. I know their name is the Pittsburgh Penguins, but I hate them because they think they can invade my state and steal the glory from my Philadelphia Eagles, so they will forever be known as the Poopers!

Emmitt: Thanks, Poopers. You look a much differentlessly than the guy who was here last day. He was a guy with long yellow hair who always complain about holiday. Her body also have some sexuals, but you have nothing but fatness.

Kevin Reilly: Emmitt, if you’re not careful you’re going to make the cut on my revenge list, which I have in the basement next to Mother’s lipstick. First of all, my name is not Poopers. Second, that was not me. That was someone filling in for me while I got sentenced for my crime. And third, Mother said that if I hear the word “sexuals,” then I will have to get my virgin ears washed out. What is a virgin anyway? New Daddy, do you know?

Jay Cutler: Something you will always be, my friend.

Tollefson: Kevin, pay no mind to your stepfather. I will make sure that you are not a virgin by the end of the week. Kevin, I’ve been waiting for this day to come, but I am going to gift you one of my female slaves. I know, I know, you can’t accept my generous gift because your mom won’t let you touch women, so I’m here to introduce my new product, Woman Slave Timeshares. I’m excited about this product. For a limited time, you – yes, you – can invest in a female slave and have her cook and clean naked on my property for you! She will be hard at work cooking and cleaning my home while thinking of you. Ever need a female slave to make you a sandwich? For $199 per month, you can have a female slave make me a sandwich while she’s thinking of you! This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, Kevin. Don’t miss out!

Kevin Reilly: Tolly, I’m excited about your offer, but I’ve already spent my allowance on the newest Nick Foles bobbleheads. Besides, Mother will know when other women are thinking of me. She said they’re the devil, and Mother knows what the devil is doing and thinking at all times. Speaking of the devil, Clarissa Thompkins has a sideline report.

Charissa Thompson: Thanks, Sideline Report. Ben Roethlisberger was just arrested for having a sexual encounter in the bathroom, likely with Dan Marino. Back to you, Sideline Report.

Kevin Reilly: HEY, CLARISSA, MY NAME IS NOT SIDELINE REPORT! WHY ARE YOU SO UNPROFESSIONAL THAT YOU DON’T KNOW YOUR COWORKERS’ NAME!? I KNOW YOUR NAME!

Mina Kimes: Kevin, we need to have a discussion. I’m sitting here, every week, and I’m being oppressed more and more. This is Week 15, and no one has yet to acknowledge my great analysis of Geno Smith being a top-one quarterback in the NFL. I am a Yale graduate, so this is special analysis that is going to waste because no one respects me as an Asian female analyst. Also, please don’t criticize a fellow female NFL analyst even though she’s not Asian for not getting you name correct. Women are way too oppressed in the workplace to get the names of coworkers correct most of the time, and it’s because of evil cis men like you. No wonder you’ll never acknowledge my Geno Smith analysis!

Kevin Reilly: Who the heck is Geno Smith?

Sarah Spain: EX-CA-USE ME! DID YOU JUST BELITTLE OUR AMAZING FEMALE ASIAN NFL ANALYST? HOW DARE YOU NOT KNOW WHO SHE’S TALKING ABOUT IN HER ANALYSIS FROM THE ENTIRE YEAR!? I FEEL SO OPPRESSED FOR HER THAT I’LL HAVE TO SHOW MY CLEAVAGE ONLINE AGAIN!

Kevin Reilly: What is cleavage? Why are people saying things I don’t understand!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re talking about things that Kevin doesn’t understand, Kevin. Let’s begin with cleavage, Kevin. Sounds like your mom would think that’s the devil, Kevin. Next is Geno Smith, Kevin. He’s a quarterback in the NFL, Kevin. How about anything to do with women, Kevin? Or what about anything to do with anything, Kevin?

Kevin Reilly: I KNOW SOME THINGS, CHARLES DAVIS! I KNOW NICK FOLES IS GREAT, AND MY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ARE THE BEST TEAM, AND YOU ARE A POOPER, CHARLES DAVIS! We’ll be back right after this!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Where did that come from? Aaron Rodgers couldn’t complete a single pass over the line of scrimmage until the third quarter when he battled Buffalo two weeks ago. Then, last week, he torched a better statistical defense while playing in Baltimore. Rodgers, at times, looked like the former MVP of the league. It was completely inexplicable.

If we get to see that Rodgers again, I like his chances of doing well against the Dolphins. Miami has a pass-funnel defense as a result of a poor pass rush and deficiencies in the secondary. With DK Metcalf now fully healthy again, Rodgers will have a good chance to connect on numerous deep throws to his stud receiver once again.

It’s unlikely, however, that the Steelers will be able to run on Miami. Despite how bad they are against the pass, the Dolphins actually handle the run incredibly well. In the past two months, the Dolphins rank second in ground defense, behind only Seattle.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Steelers aren’t exactly nearly as good versus the run. We recently saw them surrender nearly 300 rushing yards to the Bills. They played better against the rush in Baltimore, but Derrick Henry seems completely washed up.

The Steelers are 30th against the run over the past two months, ranked over the Jets and Giants. Miami would love to deploy De’Von Achane against Pittsburgh, but Achane suffered a rib injury late in last week’s game. Jaylen Wright looked good in relief, but he’s obviously not nearly as talented as Achane.

If the Dolphins can’t consistently pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, it’ll be difficult for them to have an effective scoring attack in this game. The Steelers can generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, while the Dolphins really struggle to pass protect. It’s hard to trust Tua Tagovailoa under these circumstances, though he should have some connections to Darren Waller because Pittsburgh struggles to cover tight ends.

RECAP: Backing Mike Tomlin off a win, especially when he’s favored by more than a field goal, is generally seen as a poor situation, but it’s surprisingly not. Tomlin is a fair 33-29 against the spread in these situations at home. He’s far worse in these spots on the road (7-23 ATS), but he can coach his team to victories as a host.

Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, we can back the Steelers. Fading the Dolphins may seem intimidating right now because they’ve won five of their previous six games, but they’ve beaten mostly crap. They won against the Falcons in one of their many flat spots. They needed to go into overtime to dispatch the crappy Redskins, who would’ve won had they not muffed a punt very late in the game. They needed a pick-two to get by the Saints, who otherwise would have kicked a potential game-winning field goal on the ensuing drive. And last week, the Dolphins had the luxury of battling Brady Cook because Tyrod Taylor got hurt after attempting only four passes.

Of the four teams I mentioned, none are as good as Pittsburgh. The Steelers aren’t even that good, but they’re an average football team, which is better than what the Falcons, Redskins, Saints, and Brady Cook-led Jets are. This is a step up in competition, and the Dolphins are a bad team coming off a win, so they seem like a relatively easy fade in this game, especially given the weather implications. Tagovailoa has extremely little success in cold-weather games, especially when battling tougher defenses, and it’s expected to be in the teens on Monday night.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned earlier that Andy and I had our biggest disagreement regarding the Packers-Broncos game. This may have been our biggest agreement. We both love the Steelers.

The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.

The Dolphins are a bad team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.

Computer Model: Steelers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 54% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 44-22 ATS in December/January home games since 2000.

Steelers are 14-6 ATS at home on Monday Night Football the previous 20 instances.

Aaron Rodgers is 139-104 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .