2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Raiders at Eagles

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 19-38-1 heading into Week 13.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Seahawks -7.5

Broncos -7.5

Buccaneers -8

Rams -7.5

Cowboys +3

Browns -3.5

Bears +6.5

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Panthers -1.5

Patriots +1.5

Lions +6

Between this and SNAP benefits/fraud, there are going to be many hungry people in this final month of football.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: There was a glimmer of hope Monday night that things were back to normal. When Saquon Barkley broke free for his long touchdown run in the fourth quarter, Eagles fans may have wondered if this was a sign that the offense would perform closer to its 2024 level. Of course, this was not the case. Barkley barely ran for any yardage after that, while Jalen Hurts threw his fourth interception of the night on an ensuing drive in overtime.

If there’s a team that could cure Philadelphia’s ills, it’s the Raiders, who have a far worse defense than the Chargers. While the Chargers are sixth in defensive EPA, the Raiders are 26th. Las Vegas is 29th against the run, so Barkley will have more running lanes than he enjoyed Monday night.

If Barkley can run a bit better in this game, Hurts will be able to rebound off his five-turnover nightmare of a game. The Raiders don’t place nearly as much pressure on the quarterback as the Chargers do, despite Maxx Crosby’s presence, so Hurts will enjoy more time in the pocket to locate A.J. Brown, who has been on fire the past three weeks.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Philly fans may not believe it, but the Raiders offense is in worse shape than the Eagles offense. Part of that is Geno Smith’s injury. Smith left the game last week with a shoulder issue. This may have been the result of garbage time, but Kenny Pickett had more success moving the chains than Smith did. Given how putrid Smith has been this year – despite ESPN DEI hire Mina Kimes ranking him in the top 10 – it’s actually not too shocking that Las Vegas’ scoring unit put up some points with Pickett at the helm.

Again, this was garbage time, and it’s difficult to imagine Pickett doing much against Philadelphia’s elite defense. The real issue for the Raiders is the offensive line, which is in shambles. Philadelphia’s defensive line should have no difficulty flooding the backfield and potentially forcing Pickett into turnovers.

It would be great if Pickett were able to depend on Ashton Jeanty for some tough yards, but that’s not going to happen. Jeanty is dead last in the NFL in yards before contact. He’s getting hit in the backfield constantly, and that will persist against Philadelphia’s No. 7 rush defense.

RECAP: This spread is too high. The Eagles are an untrustworthy team that can’t produce any consistent offense without Lane Johnson. The last time they scored more than 21 points in a game was Oct. 26 when they still had Johnson on the field. Since then, they’ve posted 10, 16, 21, 15, and 19 points. Does that sound like a team that should be favored by 11 points?

Also, the Eagles are in an incredibly tough scheduling spot. They just endured an extremely physical game against the Chargers’ No. 6 defense. They played well into overtime and were on the field for about 150 snaps. And now, they have to prepare for another opponent on one fewer day of rest, all while traveling back across the country and playing a 1 p.m. game on the East Coast after their body clocks adjusted to Pacific time.

We just saw the Redskins and Broncos play a similar game on a Sunday night, and neither team covered the following week even though they had normal rest. Granted, Denver only lost the spread because of a bogus back-door field goal, but remember that they were only in a position to cover before the kick because they scored on a lucky Marvin Mims return. I would not say the Broncos played a cover-worthy game against the Raiders.

I know that the Eagles need to win this game more than the Broncos did over the Raiders, but they haven’t shown any evidence that we can trust them. Something is wrong with this team, so they don’t deserve our money. If they were playing a real team, I’d consider their opponent as a huge play. I can’t bet big on the Raiders, especially when considering the quarterback situation, but I can side with them for two or perhaps even three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I had a funny interaction with Kenny on our Tuesday fantasy show where he guessed that the spread of this game is Eagles -6. He was speechless when I told him the line was -11.5. Part of me wonders if I should have more units on the Raiders, but they are just way too untrustworthy.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Eagles will be exhausted from their short week/travel/overtime.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -10.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -12.5.

Computer Model: Eagles -10.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 56% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Raiders are 20-14 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Nick Sirianni is 4-8 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Eagles -12.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Sunny, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.