2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Titans at 49ers

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Questions from Conrad, where I discuss the odd questions my son asked me one morning.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers needed a bye earlier in the season when half of their roster was out of the lineup, but it’s better late than never. The week off could potentially do wonders for Brock Purdy, who struggled prior to the bye. Purdy fired three interceptions in the opening half versus the Panthers, though he didn’t get a chance to make any blunders the following week when the Browns gift-wrapped some touchdowns to the 49ers on a trio of short fields.

Purdy didn’t have to solve Cleveland’s terrific defense, but he won’t have to do much thinking against the Titans. Tennessee has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Purdy will have all the time in the world to operate in the pocket. He’ll be able to target George Kittle heavily, and he’ll have success doing so. We know that because Harold Fannin just had a monster game against this Tennessee, so that bodes well for Kittle.

And then, there’s Christian McCaffrey, who has a solid matchup against Tennessee’s 23rd-ranked rush defense. We just saw Quinshon Judkins break free for a long reception against the Titans, so McCaffrey should be able to generate tons of receiving yardage.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It was shocking to see the Titans score 31 points against the Browns last week. They hadn’t even scored more than 24 points against any team, so 31 points versus Cleveland was startling. Was this a sign of things to come, or just a fluke?

Sorry, Titans fans, but that was a fluke. The Browns didn’t show up to play this game for whatever reason, allowing Tony Pollard to break some long runs. Pollard won’t be doing that in this game, assuming that the 49ers are focused. San Francisco is a solid 10th against the run, so Pollard will revert to being the washed-up runner we’ve watched all year.

While the 49ers are strong against the run, they’re not as good versus the pass because they don’t get to the quarterback as a result of all of their defensive line injuries. However, that may not matter because Cam Ward tends to hold on to the ball for an eternity. If he continues to do that, it might give the 49ers just enough time to get some defenders in his face and force some turnovers.

RECAP: I mentioned earlier that the 49ers will clamp down on Pollard if they’re focused. Will they be? I’d guess that they would. They have nothing to look ahead to next week – they battle the Colts – and they’re not exactly looking behind either because they beat the Browns prior to the bye. That’s not exactly an impressive win.

I like the 49ers as a fade of Tennessee. It’s fine to bet against the Titans in general, but that’s especially true following a victory. Horrible teams like Tennessee have an abysmal track record following victories. The Titans lost to the horrible Raiders, 20-10, after their other win this year.

One reservation I have is that the 49ers don’t win by these sorts of margins all that often, but I investigated that and found that the 49ers have four victories by double digits this season. And while it’s true that two of those double-digit wins were by 10 and 11 – which wouldn’t cover this spread – those games were against teams that are far better than the Titans. It’s far easier to crush Tennessee, after all, than it is to do so against the Panthers and Jaxson Dart-led Giants.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think I like this game a little bit less than earlier in the week, but I’m still willing to bet three units on the 49ers.

The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.

The Titans are a horrible team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -12.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -12.5.

Computer Model: 49ers -12.5.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Slight lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Opening Line: 49ers -12.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .