2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Colts at Seahawks

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Who is going to quarterback the Colts? Daniel Jones is out for the year with a torn Achilles. Anthony Richardson has some sort of orbital injury. We thought Riley Leonard was going to take over as the primary quarterback, but he’s been ruled out with a torn knee ligament. The Colts are bringing in Philip Rivers for a tryout, which is a joke, considering that Rivers is 44 and hasn’t played in five years.

Perhaps the Colts could survive this game with a decrepit quarterback if they were playing one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but that’s certainly not the case. Seattle is No. 1 in defense. We recently saw what the Seahawks did to Max Brosmer, and they’ll treat Indianapolis’ quarterback similarly. The only way the Colts’ new quarterback can succeed if this suddenly turns into a Disney movie, and the quarterback gets magical pixie dust put on him.

The Colts will obviously turn to Jonathan Taylor, but that’s unlikely to work. Seattle has the best run defense in the NFL, and given the deficiency at quarterback, they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage, making things even more difficult for Taylor.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have the easiest matchup possible on defense, but their offense also looks promising in this contest. That’s because the Colts also have some major injury issues on this side of the ball.

I’m referring to the injuries to DeForest Buckner and Sauce Gardner, of course. Gardner would be extremely useful in this game against Jaxson Smith-Njigba, but with Gardner sidelined, the Colts have major problems against the pass. They couldn’t do anything to contain Trevor Lawrence last week, and they’ll have similar issues versus Sam Darnold and his Offensive Player of the Year teammate.

Buckner, meanwhile, is missed in regard to the run defense and pass rush. Darnold will have plenty of time in the pocket, and he’ll have more favorable down-and-distance situations because the Seahawks will be able to run on Indianapolis with their two talented backs.

RECAP: We made a huge play on the Seahawks when they battled Max Brosmer a couple of weeks ago. That was an easy win, with the Seahawks prevailing 26-0 despite the offense not playing well.

I imagine we’ll be making a similar bet in this game. This is just such a complete mismatch that we need to take advantage of it. The Colts are going to get such negative play at quarterback that they don’t have a chance against the league’s top defense. And it’s not like their defense has a favorable matchup against the Seattle offense.

This will be one of our biggest bets of the week. The unit count will depend on which quarterback the Colts go with, and where the spread goes as a result.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don’t know who will quarterback the Colts this week, but it sounds like it’s going to be Philip Rivers or Brett Rypien. In other words, an easy cover for the Seahawks.

The Motivation. Edge: Colts.

The Seahawks have the Rams on Thursday.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -15.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -15.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Why aren’t people betting on the Seahawks?

Percentage of money on Seattle: 55% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 63-49 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Seahawks are 11-18 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -10.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 54 degrees. Light wind.