2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Cardinals at Texans

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s amazing that when some Cardinals offensive players get injured, they have better players step onto the field. Jacoby Brissett has been an upgrade over Kyler Murray, while Michael Wilson has blossomed ever since Marvin Harrison Jr. has started missing time.

The effectiveness of Brissett, Wilson, and others will be put to the test in this game. Houston has an elite defense that is terrific in every regard. The Cardinals can usually pass protect well, but this didn’t work in last week’s loss to the Rams, particularly in the second half. We may see similar results in this contest.

What really helps Houston’s matchup in this contest is that the Cardinals have no running game to speak of. There was a chance Trey Benson would be able to return, but Bam Knight will probably be the primary runner again. Knight will not get anything on the ground, allowing the Texans to concentrate on stopping Wilson and Trey McBride.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans were able to win in Kansas City last week, but they didn’t have the best offensive showing. C.J. Stroud began the second half 0-of-8. The Texans’ pitiful offense was bailed out by Andy Reid handing the Texans the game on a silver platter when he opted to go for it on fourth-and-1 on his own 31. Reid looked like he wanted to get out of the stadium before his favorite restaurant closed for the night. #fatjokes

Some may think that things will go better for the Texans offensively in this game because Arizona’s defense was a sieve last week. However, that was against the Rams, who were pissed about losing to the Panthers the prior week. They were firing on all cylinders. Conversely, the Texans are coming off a couple of huge wins, so they may not be fully focused. It also seems likely that the Cardinals will have some of their injured players back on the field this week, which should help them limit Houston’s offense.

Particularly, Walter Nolen’s potential return would be huge. Nolen has been a beast for the Cardinals despite being a rookie, but he was out for last week’s game. The Texans’ offensive line has improved lately, but combatting Nolen in the trenches would still be a tall task for Houston’s blockers.

RECAP: I referenced this earlier, but this is not a good spot for the Texans. In the past three games, they’ve beaten the Bills, Colts, and Chiefs. The last time they’ve had an “easy” game was about a month ago when they barely scraped by the Titans, 16-13. Granted, Davis Mills played in that game instead of Stroud, but it’s not like Stroud has been this incredible quarterback.

This game has huge potential to be a letdown for the Texans. They have to be exhausted after all of those tough games, and now they get to battle a non-conference foe with a 3-10 record. It’s extremely unlikely that we’ll get to see Houston’s best effort in this game.

If I’m right, then this will give the Cardinals a better chance to cover the spread. I already liked Arizona because this line is so large. Sure, the Cardinals were just blown out by the Rams, but that was predictable. Arizona has been very competitive in most of its games this year, save for those against the top tier in the NFL. The Rams are obviously classified as such, while the Texans, despite their stellar defense, are not. The Cardinals recently took the Jaguars into overtime and then lost to the Buccaneers by three on the road. If they can remain within three of both Jacksonville and Tampa Bay, then they can certainly stay within nine of the Texans, especially when Houston is in a poor scheduling spot.

We’re going to have a big play on the Cardinals as a result of the spot and the line being out of control. The advance spread was -6.5, and yet it’s ballooned by three points because the Texans beat a Chiefs team that has been losing to everyone? That makes no sense. The Cardinals scored 10 points on the Rams’ great defense last week before garbage time. If they do that again, I like their chances of covering because I don’t trust the Texans to reliably score 20 points in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s always painful to drop a projected bet from four to zero units, but that’s the case here because the Cardinals won’t have Paris Johnson Jr. available. Without Johnson, who has been a stellar tackle for Arizona this year, the Cardinals won’t have their top two tackles against Houston’s elite pass rush. Betting on them is just asking for trouble.

The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.

The Texans are coming off wins against the Bills, Colts, and Chiefs.

The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.5.

Computer Model: Texans -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

Decent action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 65% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Opening Line: Texans -9.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.