2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Chargers at Chiefs

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers won Monday night, but it came at a price. They lost their third offensive tackle, Trey Pipkins, and their offense was anemic after that. Herbert took seven sacks, and he committed multiple turnovers as a result.

It’s difficult to imagine the Chargers having any sustained offensive success in this game without their three tackles. The Chiefs have a poor pass defense, but they can generate decent pressure on the quarterback, so Herbert will constantly be under siege. This could translate into turnovers.

Given the blocking issues, it’s unlikely that the Chargers will have any consistent success on the ground as well. Omarion Hampton is back in the lineup, but given the offensive line situation, he can’t really do anything.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs are obviously no strangers to offensive line concerns. They were down three tackles as well this past week. Both of their starters were sidelined, and Wanya Morris got hurt on the first play from scrimmage. As a result, the Chiefs scored just 10 points, albeit against Houston’s elite defense.

The Chargers also have a terrific defense. They’re not as great as Houston, but they’re still ranked sixth. The Chargers can flood the backfield well with Khalil Mack and company, so if all three Kansas City tackles are out again – Jawaan Taylor was doubtful last week – then Patrick Mahomes won’t have much time to operate.

Mahomes will have to release quick passes to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce to compensate. Both players let him down with huge drops in the fourth quarter on Sunday night, but they’ll have a chance to redeem themselves this week.

RECAP: Both of these teams are similar. The Chargers and Chiefs each had various moments throughout the season where they were viewed as one of the top teams in the NFL. Both teams have been ravaged by offensive line injuries. The one difference would be that the Chargers have maintained a strong defensive rating, which would explain why they’re 9-4, and why the Chiefs are 6-7.

There’s another big difference, however, and that would pertain to this game. The Chargers are in an awful scheduling spot. They just endured an overtime game and now have to prepare for their biggest rival on a short week. They played about 150 snaps with the Eagles, and we just saw the Broncos and Redskins both fail to cover the spread following a similar snap count. Granted, the Broncos lost the spread on a back-door field goal at the buzzer, but they were also able to benefit from a kickoff return earlier in the game.

I like the Chiefs because of the scheduling spot, but I hate that this spread is well above -3. You have to pay a tax on the Chiefs because of price memory. I would absolutely love them at -2.5 or -3, especially if they get an offensive lineman or two back from injury, but laying four or even 4.5 is a tough pill to swallow.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m thinking about betting the Chiefs. The Chargers are in such a tough scheduling spot, and their offensive line is in shambles. The sharp money has come in on the Chiefs as well, though there’s a chance that this is phantom line movement before other pro money comes in on the Chargers.

The Motivation. Edge: Chiefs.

The Chargers will be exhausted from their short week/travel/overtime.

The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5.

Computer Model: Chiefs -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

The Chargers are a big public dog.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 78% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Chiefs have won 19 of the last 23 meetings.

Jim Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS after Monday Night Football.

Patrick Mahomes is 106-31 SU, 71-64 ATS (57-50 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Patrick Mahomes is 15-13 ATS after a loss.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 18 degrees. Light wind.