2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Jets at Jaguars

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I got some hate for my Mina Kimes takes:

Thinking Geno Smith is a top-10 quarterback is bad enough. Simping for someone who thinks this is even worse! And yes, Mina Kimes is a DEI hire because if she were a straight white male, she would not have her ESPN job. There is no disputing that.

Here’s another beta male simp loser:

What a narc! “Hey Mina, look what I found! Someone is being mean to you! Now, can you praise me so I can imagine you being my girlfriend because no girl would ever touch me in real life!?”

Here’s another sad, low-energy loser who has never been touched by a woman:

These people are so pathetic. Hey, you guys realize Mina doesn’t give a damn about you, right? She’s too busy devising which horrible quarterback she’s going to rank in the top 10 next year.

Here’s one more dork:

“OMG LIKE LITERALLY LIKE OMG IF MINA KIMES LIKES ONE OF MY POSTS IM GONNA LIKE LITERALLY POOP MY PANTS LIKE LITERALLY POOP MY PANTS BECAUSE I DON’T KNOW WHAT IT’S LIKE TO LITERALLY BE TOUCHED BY LIKE A GIRL LIKE LITERALLY OMG.”

NEW YORK OFFENSE: We’ll begin with the side that has the news. Tyrod Taylor, to my chagrin, got hurt after four throws last week, giving way to Brady Cook. The undrafted free agent was Max Brosmer-level woeful, giving the Jets no chance to mount a comeback.

It’s unclear which quarterback will be available. If Taylor plays, he could be hindered by his groin. There’s Justin Fields, but he was too hurt to be active last week. It could be Cook again, and if that’s the case, Jacksonville’s defense will devour him. The Jaguars have a ferocious pass rush that will create nightmares for an inept quarterback, and an injured signal-caller won’t fare much better.

Whether it’s Taylor, Fields, or Cook, they won’t be able to lean on Breece Hall as a rusher very much. The Jaguars have made big improvements to their run defense lately, and they now rank fourth in that regard.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I’ve mentioned this repeatedly recently, but the Jaguars have fundamentally changed on this side of the ball because of the Jakobi Meyers acquisition. Trevor Lawrence has worked with talented receivers before in Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas Jr., and Travis Hunter, but they’ve had issues with drops or staying healthy, and in Hunter’s case, knowing where to line up. Meyers, conversely, is a professional receiver who doesn’t drop any passes and comes up with clutch receptions. It’s no coincidence that Lawrence has been much better since Meyers was integrated into the offense.

Lawrence should continue to perform on a high level in this matchup. Tua Tagovailoa just had a strong performance against a Jets secondary that is missing multiple players. The Jets also don’t have much of a pass rush, so Lawrence will have all the time in the world to find his weapons.

The Jets were even worse against the run than the pass last week. Even after De’Von Achane left the game with an injury, New York was being trampled by Jaylen Wright. Travis Etienne should have a big game.

RECAP: I’m going to be betting on the Jaguars this week, depending on what happens at quarterback for the Jets. If Taylor or Fields are expected to start, then I may hold off on a wager because the line might be too high. Jacksonville also has two tough games coming up against the Broncos and Colts, so there could be a look-ahead situation in this potential flat spot.

However, if Cook is expected to start, the Jaguars will be a big bet. They’ll dominate this game even if they’re a bit flat because Cook is so atrocious. Cook couldn’t even do anything against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, so how’s he going to deal with a Jacksonville stop unit that is ranked 11th in EPA over the past two months?

We’ll re-visit this pick in the Thursday Thoughts and Saturday Notes updates. For now, I’m going to list the Jaguars as the play for TBA units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may lock in this pick soon. Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor were both DNP on Wednesday, and the Jets signed Adrian Martinez to their practice squad.

LOCKED IN: Aaron Glenn announced that Brady Cook will start this game. I am locking in Jaguars -13.5 -106 at FanDuel for five units. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Jaguars battle the Broncos and Colts after this “easy” game.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -12.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -9.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 60% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 70-116 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 18-31 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -12.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.