2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Redskins at Giants

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Hey, I found a Freedom Tunes episode that perfectly encapsulates Roger Goodell!

This is Goodell in a nut shell. Pretend to care about women by having the players wear pink, yet run them onto the field to play a violent game on just three days’ rest. Hopefully Goodell will grow up to be a nice burger-flipper one day.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I backed off a big play on the Vikings last week because Jayden Daniels was returning from his hiatus. We didn’t know which Daniels we were getting, but it was going to be the first time that he was on the field with Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and a healthy offensive line all year.

Alas, the group didn’t last together for three quarters because Daniels suffered an injury just after halftime. It sounds like there’s a chance Daniels could play this week, but perhaps the Redskins will acknowledge tha enough is enough. There’s a decent chance Marcus Mariota will start this game, which won’t give the Redskins a big liability in this game because the Giants have a bottom-five defense in terms of EPA. The Giants have been atrocious against the run, while their secondary has surrendered lots of big plays.

It won’t all be rosy for the Redskins offense because Mariota really struggles when pressured. This was one of the selling points on backing the Vikings before the Daniels news. Mariota’s completion percentage drops about 30 points when pressured, which bodes poorly for this matchup because the Giants have some talented edge rushers.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of injury-prone quarterbacks, Jaxson Dart was given the luxury of healing up last week. Dart returned from his concussion versus the Patriots, but wasn’t quite 100 percent. He should be back to his usual self in this game.

This is not good news for the Redskins, who have the slowest linebackers in the NFL. Dart will be able to run circles around them and expose a poor secondary with passes to his diminished group of receivers.

The Giants will also be able to run the ball without Dart. Devin Singletary is the only healthy back remaining, but Washington’ poor run defense won’t be able to do anything to stop him.

RECAP: It’s interesting that the Giants are favored by the same number as the Vikings were last week against the Redskins before the Daniels news broke. I find this odd because the Vikings are better than the Giants. Both teams have sketchy offenses, but Minnesota’s defense is far better than New York’s.

I loved the Vikings last week, but I don’t feel the same way about the Giants. They don’t deserve to be favored by nearly a field goal over the Redskins, even if Mariota starts. Mariota will do well against the Giants’ horrible defense, giving Washington a decent chance of winning this game. However, I’m still going to back the Giants because I trust Dart more than Mariota in an even game. I won’t be betting on either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Teams coming off shutout losses are 46-31 against the spread since 2010, so that would benefit the Redskins. However, Jayden Daniels will not play in this game, so it’s difficult to back Marcus Mariota in a near-pick ’em situation when his defense is so atrocious.

The Motivation. Edge: .

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.

Computer Model: Giants -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Plenty of money on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 62% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Giants have won 25 of the last 38 meetings (except the 2022 tie).

Opening Line: Giants -2.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Sunny, 29 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.