2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Bills at Patriots

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It almost goes without saying that if the Patriots win this game, Drake Maye will wrap up the MVP award. Maye has been incredible in his second season. He had his way with the Bills in the prior matchup, going 22-of-30 for 273 yards. One difference between that victory and this contest is that Maye won’t have the left side of his offensive line. Will Campbell’s absence could prove to be devastating at some point, and the Bills have the edge-rushing talent to exploit that liability.

Maye, however, should still be able to perform on a high level. He’ll be able to utilize his legs against a linebacker group that has dealt with constant injuries. I wouldn’t count on him leaning on Hunter Henry because the Bills are excellent against tight ends, but perhaps Stefon Diggs can duplicate the 10-146 line he posted in the previous meeting.

New England’s primary method of moving the chains should be on the ground. While the Bills have been decent against the run the past two weeks, they’ve struggled mightily to defend ground attacks for most of the season. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson could break free for big gains unless the Bills’ improvement against the run is real.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Maye won’t be the only quarterback utilizing his legs in this matchup. Josh Allen broke free for some crucial runs against the Bengals, and there’s no reason to think that won’t happen in this game. Allen has previously stated that he wants to save his legs for late-season and playoff battles, so there’s no reason to hold back now.

While Allen should run well, he could have the most success targeting his tight ends. Dawson Knox had a monster game against the Bengals, while Dalton Kincaid chipped in with some clutch late-game catches. Of course, that was against the most favorable matchup possible, but it’s not like the Patriots have been good against tight ends. They’ve surrendered the 11th-most production to the position.

The Patriots, however, shouldn’t have an issue clamping down on James Cook. The dynamic back failed to reach 50 rushing yards in the previous matchup, which wasn’t a surprise because New England is solid against the run.

RECAP: This is one of the toughest games of the week to handicap because we don’t know how good the Patriots are. Their 11-2 record is outstanding, but they haven’t really beaten anyone. And before you point out that they won in Buffalo, the Bills were not in good shape at that point of the season. Following the loss to the Patriots, Buffalo suffered a defeat to the crappy Falcons.

Outside of the Buffalo win, the Patriots haven’t defeated a winning team, save for the Buccaneers, who are on the verge of collapse after losing to the Saints at home. And sure, the Patriots have demolished their competition, which is why I’m not completely dismissing them as potentially being a great team, but all I’m saying is that we haven’t really seen proof of their ability to beat top competition. Sweeping the Bills would make me feel a lot better about their chances of winning the Super Bowl.

So, we’ll see what happens. I’m currently leaning toward the Bills because they’re a known commodity, and there’s a chance they’ve figured out their putrid run defense over the past couple of weeks.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No real update for this game. I’m still leaning toward the Bills, but don’t plan on betting this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -1.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Plenty of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 63% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, excluding when they sat their starters.

Mike Vrabel is 6-0 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Bills -1.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Slight chance of snow, 29 degrees. Light wind.