2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Lions at Rams

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams were electric last week. Bouncing back from an embarrassing loss to the Panthers, the Rams were fully focused and dynamic against the Cardinals. On their first five drives, they scored four touchdowns and a field goal, and they barely even got to third down. They could not be stopped whatsoever.

The Lions are going to have similar issues. They’ve had major problems stopping the pass, and despite their win last Thursday, we saw that against the Cowboys. Despite CeeDee Lamb being knocked out of the game, the Cowboys still were able to score into the 30s with Dak Prescott constantly hooking up with someone named Ryan Flournoy. Now, the Lions will be battling an even better, healthier offense without Brian Branch, who got hurt last week.

Detroit can’t even count on stopping the run. The team is 18th against the rush over the past two months, so Kyren Williams and Blake Corum will be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground to put Matthew Stafford into more favorable down-and-distance situations.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions won’t be able to stop the Rams, so they’ll have to keep up with them in a shootout. On paper, that seems like a possibility, but it’s unclear if that will be the case when the teams take the field.

There’s one major problem for the Lions in this matchup that will prevent them from successfully engaging the Rams in a shootout, and that would be the pressure that Los Angeles can generate. The Rams have a ferocious pass rush, which is bad news for Jared Goff, who typically handles pressure very poorly. When kept clean, Goff completes 80.1 percent of his passes on a 8.8 YPA with 25 touchdowns and three interceptions. When pressured, Goff’s completion percentage drops to 46.3 on a YPA of 6.3, with one touchdown and two interceptions. Obviously, all quarterbacks are worse when pressured, but as you’ll see later down the page, there are other quarterbacks who have very minimal drop-offs when defenders flood the backfield.

For Detroit’s offense to work, Goff will need to lean on Jahmyr Gibbs to ease some of the pressure off of him. That might be possible. The Rams have had a very inconsistent rush defense. Sometimes, they’re brilliant, but sometimes, they struggle to defend the run. Overall, they’re fifth against the run, so they’re better often than not.

RECAP: We’ve been backing the Rams for most weeks this year, and this week won’t be any different. They’re the best team in football, and they will cover the spread more often than not as a result.

Obviously, you need more than that to bet a team, and that would be the mismatches that the Rams have on both sides of the ball. Their pass offense is too much for Detroit’s injury-ravaged secondary to handle, while their pass rush will overwhelm Goff and force some turnovers.

One could argue that this spread is too high, but I don’t think so. The Lions can beat mediocre or bad teams like the Cowboys, but they’re not that good, which is why they’ve won only one of their five games that they’ve played against Group A and B teams this year. In those four losses to Group A-B teams, they’ve lost by 14, 13, 7, and 7, all of which would cover the spread for the Rams in this matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public loves the Lions, yet this spread continues to move in the Rams’ direction. That’s music to my ears.

The Motivation. Edge: Rams.

If you’re into double revenge for the Rams.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -6.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -4.5.

Computer Model: Rams -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The Lions are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 76% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Dan Campbell is 18-4 ATS as an underdog of 4+.

Opening Line: Rams -4.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.