2025 NFL Picks – Week 15: Panthers at Saints

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Don’t look now, but the Saints may not be drafting a quarterback this April. Tyler Shough had some rough performances to begin his career, but he was brilliant against the Buccaneers. He had one other good performance since taking over for Spencer Rattler, and that was against these Panthers.

It’s easy to see why Shough would perform well verus Carolina. The Panthers don’t generate much quarterback pressure and struggle against the pass as a result. The Panthers had no answer for Chris Olave, and that was with Jaycee Horn on the field. Horn was lost in the Monday night defeat against the 49ers, so Shough could be even better in the rematch.

The Saints also ran well against the Panthers in the prior matchup. Alvin Kamara did most of the work, but it’s unclear if he’ll be available for this game. Still, Devin Neal could do well against the league’s 27th-ranked run defense.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young didn’t play last week, but the last time we saw him, he was torching the Rams mercilessly. Young was unstoppable in Week 13 in a shocking upset over Los Angeles. The Rams have one of the best defenses in the NFL, while the Saints typically can’t stop anyone, so this figures to be a great performance for Young, right?

No, not really. I wouldn’t count Young out from having a solid performance, but he was able to benefit from the Rams being a no-show. Just two weeks earlier, Young was anemic against this very New Orleans defense. He threw for just 124 yards on a 5.0 YPA with no touchdowns and an interception. I believe this was the real Young; not the one who took advantage of a completely disinterested team prior to his bye.

Young didn’t have much help from his rushing attack in the prior matchup between these teams, which is not a surprise because the Saints are usually solid against the run. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard combined for 69 yards on 21 carries, which is similar to what we could see this time.

RECAP: I can’t say I have much interest in betting this game. If I had to choose a side, it would be the Saints because I don’t think the Panthers deserve to be road favorites in this matchup, especially with New Orleans winning the previous meeting. However, I don’t want to back a horrible team coming off a win. Teams like the Saints are usually flat following wins, so under normal circumstances, I’d be eager to fade them.

However, these are not normal circumstances, and that’s because the Saints are battling another bad team coming off a win. The Panthers have had two weeks to hear about how great they are because they defeated the Rams. I’d argue that this an even worse spot because the Panthers have had two weeks to be complacent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I’m still leaning toward the Saints, but don’t like them enough to bet them in this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -2.5.

Computer Model: Saints -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 70% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Saints have won 14 of the last 20 meetings.

Opening Line: Panthers -2.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Dome.