NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2025 – Early Games

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2025): 9-7 (-$725)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2025): 7-9 (-$925)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2025): 6-10 (-$1,285)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2025): 6-10 (+$410)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2025): 8-6 (-$25)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2025): 8-7 (-$785)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2025): 9-6 (+$1,160)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2025): 9-4 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2025): 8-6 (-$545)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,260)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2025): 5-9-1 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2025): 5-8-1 (-$1,485)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2025): 7-9 (+$315)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2025): 7-6-1 (+$1,370)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2025): 9-7 (+$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2025): 11-5 (+$600)
2025 NFL Picks: 123-108-5 (+$1,655)

2024 NFL Picks: 144-136-12 (-$1,380)
NFL Picks (2023): 143-141-10 (-$6,860)
NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 28, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games

The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

You may have noticed the site has a new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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Week 16 Analysis: We had another solid week overall. I’ll break down the picks of three or more units here:

Eagles, 4 units (win): We lucked out with Marcus Mariota getting injured. More on that in a bit.

Titans, 3 units (win): As expected, the Chiefs no-showed. I doubt we’re going to get any sort of effort from them the rest of the year.

Bengals, 3 units (win): The Bengals struggled in the first half, but got their act together and destroyed the Dolphins in the second half.

Cardinals, 3 units (loss): Quite the opposite of other games. The Cardinals led as home underdogs, but saw their lead dwindle away as some key defenders of theirs suffered injuries.

Lions, 5 units (loss): The most shocking result of the day. The Lions had a pitiful performance against a mediocre team.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The gambling gods giveth and taketh away. We bet the Eagles for four units on Saturday, which looked dicey because Marcus Mariota was performing better than expected against Philadelphia’s top-five defense. Mariota got hurt, giving away to Josh Johnson, who is a million years old. Johnson’s presence cleared the bet for us, but we lost on Terry McLaurin over receiving yards because Johnson couldn’t get the ball to his wideouts.

Johnson is expected to start this game, and he’ll once again struggle to get the ball to his targets. It won’t be nearly as bad as the Eagles game, however, because the Cowboys don’t have a top-five defense. Their defense is actually in the bottom five, and we didn’t see much effort from them in Sunday’s loss to the Chargers. Of course, they were just eliminated, but will they suddenly play better just four days later? I have my doubts.

The Cowboys are better against the run than the pass, so unless they completely mail it in, we won’t see Chris Rodriguez rip off significant runs again. However, given Dallas’ lackluster pass rush, Johnson will actually have time in the pocket, especially if Laremy Tunsil is able to return from injury.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Redskins, of course, have major defensive problems of their own. We just saw it Sunday, as Saquon Barkley, who has struggled all year, was able to rip off big chunks of yardage against Washington.

The Cowboys will be able to deploy a similar rushing attack, setting up great passing opportunities for Dak Prescott. We just saw Prescott perform well in the first half against the Chargers, and he wasn’t battling a skeleton-crew defense like the one he’ll encounter versus Washington. The Redskins have no pass rush either, so Prescott will have all the time he needs to find his star receivers.

RECAP: I believe the opening game in the NFL’s Divorce Package Deluxe slate will be decided by Dallas’ effort. If the Cowboys want to play hard off their blowout loss to the Chargers, they won’t have much of an issue dispatching the Redskins. If, however, Dallas is still flat because it recently got eliminated from the playoffs, then the Redskins should be able to hang around and cover, and perhaps even pull the upset.

It’s so difficult to bet this game. On one hand, I don’t know if the Cowboys will be trying their best, especially given that they’ll be battling a team they blew out earlier in the season. On the other hand, I don’t want to bet money on Johnson. While Johnson is devoid of talent at this stage of his career, he at least can utilize his guile and veteran savvy versus one of the worst defenses in the NFL, so unlike the Max Brosmers and the Brady Cooks of the league, Johnson at least has a fighting chance in this very easy matchup.

I ultimately believe that this will look like the 49ers-Colts game. The Redskins will hang around and look like they’ll cover, but there will be just too much firepower from the Dallas side.

Our Week 17 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread keeps climbing, and it appears as though there’s no stopping this train. Josh Johnson will start and won’t get protection from Trent Williams or Sam Cosmi. If the Cowboys are focused, this game could get ugly. It’s difficult to handicap motivation, however, so I’ll refrain from betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Not that this affects my opinion on the game, but Chris Rodriguez and Ryan Flournoy are out for their respective teams. I’d still side with the Cowboys, but won’t be betting this game. The sharps took the Cowboys at -7, but there’s been other pro money coming in on the Redskins at +9.5 and +9. The best line is Dallas -8 -109 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

It’s unclear if the Cowboys will be motivated.

The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.

Computer Model: Cowboys -5.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Plenty of action on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 78% (175,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

History: Cowboys have won 14 of the previous 19 meetings.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Cloudy, 45 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: We began with the crappy quarterback in our previous write-up, and we’ll do the same in this one. J.J. McCarthy may have been considered a crappy quarterback a few weeks ago, but he played much better after surviving the gauntlet of defenses all ranked 14th or better following his return from injury. He was far better against the Redskins and Cowboys, and it seemed as though he would be able to enjoy another victory against the Giants before banging his hand on a helmet.

McCarthy will underdog an MRI on his hand, which means there’s a decent chance that Max Brosmer will start this game. Brosmer is obviously the crappy quarterback to whom I referred earlier, and rightfully so. He’s not an NFL talent by any means. He has played six quarters of action thus far and has scored a grand total of three points. The Lions have some major defensive issues right now, but the Giants have an even worse defense, and Brosmer scored just three points in a half against them.

The Lions, who are usually not terrible against the run, were gashed by the Steelers on Sunday. I expect them to show some heart this week, and even if they don’t, it’ll be easier for them to stop the run against the Brosmer-led Vikings because they’ll be able to stack extra men in the box. It’ll also help that the Vikings will be missing multiple offensive linemen. Christian Darrisaw is now on injured reserve, Ryan Kelly is dealing with a concussion, and Brian O’Neill missed a practice to start the week.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions’ anemic defensive performance was just part of why the team suffered a shocking home loss to the Steelers. The other end of it was their disappointing offense. They couldn’t run the ball whatsoever against the defensively challenged Steelers, and Jared Goff saw tons of pressure from a front that was missing both T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig.

Goff will once again face lots of pressure against the Vikings. Brian Flores blitzes more than any other coordinator in the league, and this will once again affect Goff. We saw Goff play woefully against the Vikings in the first meeting between these teams, as his offensive line has diminished from what it was last year.

The Lions’ best hope of moving the chains consistently is via the rushing attack. This didn’t work against the Steelers, but the Vikings are just in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the rush, so Jahmyr Gibbs should be able to have a strong performance.

RECAP: The second game in the Divorce Package Deluxe slate seems to be way more appetizing than the first, at least as far as betting opportunities are concerned.

Assuming that Brosmer starts for the Vikings, the Lions seem like an easy play. Brosmer is an abomination and couldn’t score on the Giants, who have the worst defense in the NFL. He’ll also be missing two offensive linemen at the very least. The Lions have had their defensive struggles lately, but they have a better stop unit than New York. Meanwhile, this is not an ideal matchup for Goff, but we just saw the Lions play their absolute worst football. They were so much better just a week before the Pittsburgh loss when they were moving the ball up and down the field on the Rams, so I have to believe that Detroit’s offense will bounce back in an absolute must-win.

If McCarthy ends up getting the nod, I’ll obviously re-think this play, but we need to fade absolute non-talents like Brosmer whenever we get the chance.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Max Brosmer will start. He won’t have Ryan Kelly or Christian Darrisaw blocking for him. However, this spread is now above -7, and I’m not even sad that we didn’t lock in anything below a touchdown because I’m having second thoughts about the Lions. Minnesota’s defense did a number on Jared Goff, and given what we saw from the Lions last week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like that again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Two tackles are on the inactives list. The Lions will be without Taylor Decker, while the Vikings won’t have Brian O’Neill. This is a bigger deal for the Vikings because they were already down Christian Darrisaw. Despite the Vikings’ tackle situation, the sharps are on Minnesota. The best line for Detroit is -7 -110 at BetMGM.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Lions are in a do-or-die situation. I don’t think this is an Aurora Snowmo situation because Detroit’s chances of making the playoffs are so low, meaning there’s not much pressure on them.

The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -7.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.5.

Computer Model: Lions -6.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Plenty of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Vikings: 79% (182,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Dan Campbell is 15-6 ATS after a loss since his second season.

Vikings are 51-42 ATS at home since 2014 (20-27 ATS since 2020).

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were: 34-42 in 2020, 48-37 in 2021, 32-35-1 in 2022, 31-27 ATS in 2023, and 49-45 in 2024. The public was 23-46-1 heading into Week 16.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Eagles -7

Bills -10.5

Patriots +3.5

Chargers +2.5

Texans -14

The public went 1-4 in Week 1, 1-3 in Week 2, 0-3 in Week 3, 1-4 in Week 4, 1-3 in Week 5, and 1-3 in Week 6. The public finally had a winning week in Week 7, going 2-1. As for Week 8, the public was an even 3-3. It also went 3-3 in Week 9 and then 2-2 in Week 10. In Week 11, the public continued to lose, going 2-3-1. The public continued to immolate itself in Week 12, going 1-4 because of two back-door touchdowns, as well as Week 13, with a 1-2 record. Things were once again awful in Week 14, with the public going 2-5. In Week 15, the public was 2-3.

It took 16 weeks, but the public finally won, going 3-2 in Week 16. Hooray!

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams -8.5

Patriots -13.5

Steelers -3.5

Broncos -13

Lions -6

With a winning week, perhaps bettors will finally be able to afford some Christmas gifts for their poor children.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: We will once again begin with the crappy quarterback. Gardner Minshew was supposed to start for the Chiefs the rest of the way, but he injured his knee. Someone named Chris Oladukon took his place, and the Chiefs couldn’t even reach double digits against the Titans.

Oladokun will now be tasked with battling the Broncos. Good luck! I’ve called Denver’s defense a paper tiger, but the Broncos should be able to handle a guy named Oladokun, who has a battered offensive line protecting him. Oh, and if that wasn’t bad enough, there’s a decent chance his top receiver, Rashee Rice, will miss another game because of a concussion.

The Chiefs won’t get anything out of their running game either. It’d be one thing if they could lean on a reliable rusher, but neither Kareem Hunt nor Isiah Pacheco will pick up anything against the Broncos’ seventh-ranked rush defense.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Chiefs won’t score much, so the Broncos won’t need a huge number of points to cover this spread. This is obviously a good thing if you wanted to bet the Broncos, especially given that Bo Nix tends to struggle early in games.

Nix will have an easy time in this contest, however. He’ll be battling a Kansas City defense that couldn’t stop anyone before Patrick Mahomes’ injury. Now, the Chiefs have completely stopped trying, as evidenced by the offensive output Cam Ward was able to muster last week.

The Chiefs won’t be able to generate pressure on Nix, while their secondary won’t be able to cover Courtland Sutton or Troy Franklin. It’ll be shocking if Nix can’t bounce back from his dud performance against Jacksonville.

RECAP: As with the middle game of the NFL’s Divorce Package Deluxe slate, we’ll be fading the terrible quarterback for the same reason. Oladokun, like Brosmer, is not a real NFL quarterback. He doesn’t have any experience to lean on like Josh Johnson. He has no idea what’s happening, and he will be overwhelmed by Denver’s defense. Again, he couldn’t even reach double digits against the Titans, who are ranked just 26th in defense.

And as with the Lions, the Broncos played one of their worst games of the year, so we’ll be able to see them respond well. They shouldn’t have an issue dominating the Chiefs, who have nothing to play for. As I wrote last week, this Kansas City squad is done. Excluding some meaningless Week 18 games, this is the first time in the Mahomes era that the Chiefs have nothing at stake. We saw some of their ingrained veterans slack off and look like they didn’t give a damn last week.

I believe we’ll see that same attitude in the next two games. There’s an argument to be made that the Chiefs could try because they’d love to upset the Broncos, but I don’t think that will happen. Many of their veterans are already thinking about their vacations and sham weddings, and they know that they don’t have much of a chance with some guy named Oladokun at quarterback.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rashee Rice, Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, and Tyquan Thornton were all placed on injured reserve. The Broncos look great, even at -13.5. This is easily my top play for Thursday. Merry Christmas, everyone!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs officially won’t have their top three tackles, in addition to their top two cornerback, best receiver and other players. The sharps were on the home underdog in the first two games, but they haven’t taken a side in this final contest. The best line is -13.5 +100 at BetMGM. Even better, BetMGM has a 20-percent profit boost, up to $200, and it also has a $50 no-sweat bet.

The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.

The Chiefs have given up. The Broncos will look to rebound off their worst game of the year.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -11.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -5.5.

Computer Model: Broncos -11.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Denver: 73% (164,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won 17 of the last 19 meetings, excluding when the Chiefs rested their starters.

Sean Payton is 26-16 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Broncos are 2-23 SU in December games at Arrowhead.

Andy Reid is 13-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more since 2000.

Chiefs are 9-3 ATS as home underdogs of 6+ since 1989.

Opening Line: Broncos -12.5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 63 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I got some hate for my NFL Power Rankings:

This is just the tip of the iceberg, as many people were not thrilled with where I placed the Broncos.

I have never acted. What you see is the real deal.

We continued our exchange:

It’s true. This guy is jealous, too.

Here’s another post from Johna:

I don’t see what’s wrong with being dropped on the head six times. Seems like a normal number!

And here’s a guy specifically talking about the Broncos:

I miss my Orange Crush so dearly. That week we spent together back in the summer of ’12 was the happiest I’ve ever been in my life!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Both of these teams have had surprising results recently. Last week was Houston’s, as the Texans couldn’t move the ball whatsoever against a Raiders team that struggled all year. Then again, the Texans were playing in their final easy game of the year, so a letdown should have been expected.

The Texans will find it challenging to score again, but not because of lethargy this time. They’ll be going up against a dominant Chargers defense that has improved ever since Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman returned from injury. The Chargers place tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so C.J. Stroud will be under constant heat. He’ll also have to combat a talented secondary that won’t surrender much.

I mentioned Perryman in the previous paragraph, and he’s very noteworthy in this game because he has been suspended. Perryman is a force against the run, and the Chargers couldn’t stop opposing ground attacks earlier in the season when he was sidelined. Perhaps this will allow Woody Marks to explode for some big gains, assuming that he’s able to return from injury this week.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers’ surprising wins came against the defending Super Bowl participants. Beating the sorry Cowboys was expected, but they vanquished the Eagles and Chiefs despite missing both starting offensive linemen.

It seems unlikely that this will continue. At some point, the Chargers will pay for their horrible blocking, which is exactly what happened in the blowout loss to the Jaguars about a month ago. The anemic Charger tackles will be tasked with blocking a talented Houston defensive front. The Texans won this matchup last January when the Chargers had their offensive line intact, so it doesn’t seem like Justin Herbert will have any sort of protection.

Herbert won’t be held completely scoreless, of course. He’ll be able to make some clutch throws and move the sticks with his legs, but it’s going to be very difficult for him to sustain consistent drives against Houston’s dominant defensive front.

RECAP: The Texans crushed the Chargers in the playoffs last year. I wouldn’t expect such a lopsided affair in the rematch, but I still think the Texans will win again.

Houston owns the biggest mismatch in this game. Its stellar edge rushers will embarrass the Chargers’ backup tackles, which will prevent Herbert from posting too many points on the scoreboard. And while the Texans’ offense doesn’t have the best matchup, they’ll at least get a boost in the running game with Perryman being unavailable.

I’m siding with Houston, though I don’t think this will be much of a bet. There are so many better games on the card this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have a slight lean toward the Texans, but I’m not looking to bet this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: We figured the Chargers would have tackle issues in this game. Trey Pipkins returning will help, but not so much against Houston’s edge rushers. However, the Texans have a problem at tackle as well. Trent Brown is out, while Aireontae Ersery barely practiced. If Ersery is out, that’s going to be a huge problem against the Charger edge rushers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As I feared for the Texans, Aireontae Ersery is out, meaning the Texans, like the Chargers, will be down their top two tackles. This should make the under look good for those who like to bet totals. Despite the injuries, the sharp money has come in on Houston. The best line is +1 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

Decent action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 67% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -1.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

We have a new section on the site! we have a place for WalterFootball.com Video Content. We’ll be releasing short videos (8-20 minutes) on this page, with a new video each day. It’ll be a quick way to get NFL picks, fantasy football, and NFL Draft content.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: We have no idea which quarterback is going to start for either team. Lamar Jackson suffered an injury just prior to halftime on Sunday night. Of course, Jackson has been bothered by injuries all year, so even if he plays, he’s unlikely to be close to 100 percent.

Tyler Huntley may have to start again. If so, his chances of beating the Packers now are much higher than they would have been a couple of weeks ago because Micah Parsons is sidelined. Parsons’ absence has fundamentally changed the Packers defense, which is now a unit that can’t generate pressure on the quarterback. We just saw Green Bay surrender a deep touchdown to D.J. Moore at the end of Saturday’s game, and there will be more of that to come.

The Packers were at least still fine against the rush. The Bears are capable of run blocking better than most teams, and yet, D’Andre Swift mustered just 58 yards on 13 carries. Stopping Derrick Henry will be difficult, but the Packers will get a reprieve when the Ravens once again make the foolish decision to keep Henry on the sidelines in a crucial moment in the game where they have to milk the clock.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Like Jackson, “No Cookie” Jordan Love was also knocked out in the second quarter of last week’s game. Love is in concussion protocol, so it’s likely that he will miss this game. Then again, it’s not certain that Willis will be available because he got banged up in overtime. Willis’ shoulder is sore, and Matt LaFleur said that his shoulder is a “legitimate deal that he’s dealing with.” If neither Love nor Willis can go, it’ll be Clayton Tune. Yikes!

Baltimore’s defense will easily be able to deal with Tune, but both Love and Willis should be able to lead the Packers to enough points to win and perhaps cover this game. The Ravens don’t generate much pressure on the quarterback and struggle to cover at times. We saw this late last week when they had no answer for Drake Maye.

The Ravens can at least clamp down on the run. They’ll be able to limit Josh Jacobs, who is also dealing with some injuries. Jacobs barely played at the end of the Chicago loss, so perhaps Emanuel Wilson will see the bulk of the workload. Either way, it doesn’t seem like the Packers will get much on the ground.

RECAP: We’re nowhere close to being able to determine how this game will be played. There are six potential starting quarterback combinations, so let’s quickly do a rundown of all of them before I tell you to check back later in the week:

Lamar Jackson & Jordan Love: I hate backing quarterbacks off concussions, but Jackson is unlikely to be healthy. Green Bay for zero units.

Lamar Jackson & Malik Willis: Assuming Willis can get in a full practice, I’ll have a small bet on the Packers.

Lamar Jackson & Clayton Tune: I’m betting the Ravens for a considerable amount because Tune is not a real NFL player.

Tyler Huntley & Jordan Love: I’d consider the Ravens as a bet if this spread climbs to +3.5 or higher.

Tyler Huntley & Malik Willis: Another small bet on the Packers.

Tyler Huntley & Clayton Tune: Copy-paste from the Jackson-Tune matchup.

As promised, check back later in the week for updates!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The latest updates on the quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson was DNP on Tuesday and Wednesday, which is new for him because he’s been DNP on just one day each week; never two. Jordan Love has had two limited practices thus far, which is not a good sign because he’ll probably need a full practice to clear concussion protocol. And Malik Willis went from limited to DNP, so we might see Clayton Tune, after all. Stay tuned for the next update!

SATURDAY NOTES: I said I’d bet the Packers for a small amount if it were Malik Willis versus Tyler Huntley, which appears to be the case. However, this will be a small bet on the Ravens. Why? Because the flu bug is going around Green Bay’s locker room. Seven Packers have illnesses. This game isn’t guaranteed to mean anything to the Packers, who clinched playoff berth on Thursday as a result of Detroit’s loss, so we could see a poor effort from them in this game.

LOCKED IN: The sharps just pounced on the Ravens at +3, likely because the Packers have the flu. We can still get +3 -125 at BetMGM. That sportsbook also offers a 20-percent boost up to $200, so we’ll take advantage of that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Malik Willis will officially start, while Lamar Jackson will miss this game. As mentioned above, the sharps are on the Ravens. This line is now down to +2 in some places, but you can still get +3 -127 at Bookmaker. If you don’t know, the math says that -127 is the most you should ever pay for a line of three. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.

Computer Model: Packers -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 58% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Packers -2.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 39 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Futures page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We backed the Cardinals against the Falcons last week. The bet looked good for a while, but Arizona players began dropping like flies. Walter Nolen, the star rookie on the defensive line, was carted into the locker room. Top edge rusher Josh Sweat had to be helped off the field because he couldn’t put weight on one of his legs. Star safety Budda Baker got dinged up and was evaluated for a concussion. And starting cornerback Garrett Williams tore his Achilles.

Baker returned to action, so he’ll play in this game, but it seems unlikely that the other three players will be available. The Cardinals will be fielding a skeleton crew of a defense that was already struggling. They’re not going to be any match for Joe Burrow, who caught fire in the second half of last week’s game. Burrow said he wanted to have fun again, and winning in a blowout sounds like a great time.

The Bengals should be able to do whatever they want against the Cardinals. Kirk Cousins lit up Arizona, so Burrow will pick up where he left off. The Cardinals also had no answer for either Atlanta runner, so that bodes well for Chase Brown.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals won’t be able to stop the Bengals, so they’ll have to match them, point for point, in a shootout. Jacoby Brissett has been excellent at times this year, so perhaps he’ll be able to do that.

I don’t think Brissett will be able to do so, however, because of the status of his offensive line. The Cardinals, already down both tackles, lost their center, Hjalte Froholdt, to an elbow injury against the Falcons. If Paris Johnson and Froholdt are both out, Brissett is not going to get much protection, while Michael Carter won’t have much running room.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: Cincinnati’s defense is horrible, so it won’t matter. Actually, the Bengals have improved on this side of the ball recently. They limited the Ravens to 14 and 17 offensive points in two matchups. They held the Bills down to 25 offensive points. Drake Maye didn’t have a great performance against them. The Bengals still struggle against tight ends, so Trey McBride should have a big game, but given that the Cardinals can’t run the ball, the Bengals shouldn’t have too much of a problem restricting a one-dimensional offense led by a backup quarterback.

RECAP: If you couldn’t tell, I really like the Bengals. Their offense is going to make mince meat out of the Cardinals defense, which will be missing at least three more starters on top of the players who were already sidelined. Arizona couldn’t even contain Kirk Cousins, so how will it deal with Burrow, who has all of his pieces available?

The Cardinals might have a chance at a back-door touchdown, but they could be far too back to achieve one. Again, Cincinnati’s defense has been better in recent weeks, so I don’t expect Brissett to successfully engage the Bengals in a shootout.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bengals still look like a top play to me. I may move this to five units.

SATURDAY NOTES: I will, in fact, move this to five units. The Cardinals are down half their defense, while half of the other half is questionable after barely practicing this week. Not only that, but the top two tackles and top two guards are out once again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Josh Sweat is a surprise active for this game, but I don’t trust him to be healthy. The sharps haven’t taken a side. The best line is -7 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -5.5.

Computer Model: Bengals -6.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

Good action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 69% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Joe Burrow is 46-23 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (5-6 ATS otherwise).

Opening Line: Bengals -7.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: Likely rain, 66 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks looked like they were going to lose to the Rams at home when they were down 30-14. The fans were booing Sam Darnold, and yet Seattle kept fighting and won impressively in overtime. Darnold was amazing in the fourth quarter, rebounding from an ugly performance against the Colts.

Darnold should continue to play well in this game. The Panthers don’t have much of a pass rush, so Darnold will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Panthers also struggle to cover tight ends, so someone like A.J. Barner should have a decent performance.

Of course, the Seahawks want to run the ball more than anything. Klint Kubiak will be in luck, as the rushing plays he’ll call will work for a change. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet figure to have some big gains against the Panthers’ 22nd-ranked run defense.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young is one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the NFL. He can sometimes look like an anemic player who struggles because he can’t see over the line of scrimmage. We saw this in both Saints games. Then, he can have a brilliant performance against the Buccaneers.

I guess it’s not too much of a surprise that Young was far better against the Buccaneers than he was versus the Saints. New Orleans’ defense is ranked seventh, after all, while Tampa Bay’s is 30th. The Seahawks are obviously closer to the Saints. In fact, they have the No. 1 EPA defense in the NFL over the past two months. They have a devastating pass rush and a sticky secondary that will make Young’s life miserable.

Making matters worse for Young is that he won’t be able to lean on his usually solid rushing attack. The Seahawks rank second versus the run, so they shouldn’t have an issue containing Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard.

RECAP: The Seahawks are the much better team, and if you told me that they would be completely focused in this game, I would bet them for a healthy amount. However, this spot is incredibly poor. Not only are the Seahawks coming off a grueling overtime game versus the Rams where they engineered their greatest fourth-quarter comeback in franchise history; they take on the 11-4 49ers after this contest. Also, even if the Seahawks win this game, they’ll likely lose out on the division and the No. 1 seed if they suffer a loss to the 49ers in Week 18.

So, this has to be a play on the Panthers, right? Perhaps, but keep this in mind: If the Panthers win this game, they’ll still lose the division if they suffer a loss to the Buccaneers in Week 18. The only way this doesn’t happen is if the Buccaneers also lose to the Dolphins this week. Given that the Buccaneers-Dolphins and Seahawks-Panthers games fire at the same time, Carolina won’t know what will happen to the Buccaneers, save for live score updates throughout the afternoon.

Given the complexity of this situation, I’d recommend staying away from this game entirely.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Again, this is a tough game to handicap because it may not mean anything to the Panthers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing on the injury report really stands out. This is still a slight lean to the Seahawks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have taken the Panthers at +7. This line has moved to +6.5 in some books, but +7 is still available at FanDuel and Caesars. The best line for Seattle is -6.5 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Seahawks are coming off a huge comeback win against the Rams in overtime, and after this game, they will take on the 49ers.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Slight lean on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 62% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Seahawks are 11-19 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I don’t think anyone saw this coming. When the Steelers were getting blown out by the Bills, and the fans were calling for Mike Tomlin’s job, everyone was expecting the Steelers to lose most of their remaining games and miss the playoffs. Instead, they’ve been terrific ever since. Rodgers has been especially great, as he has shed his tendency to release the ball as quickly as possible because he didn’t want to get hit.

Rodgers is waiting longer in the pocket, but that could hurt him in this game against Myles Garrett, who should be able to break the single-season record for sacks in this contest. He has an easy matchup, which doesn’t bode well for Rodgers.

The Steelers have also been running the ball extremely well, with both Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell excelling. This could be a way for the Steelers to keep Garrett from having a big game, given that Cleveland’s rush defense has been leaky lately, thanks to some defensive injuries.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Shedeur Sanders looked like he’d have a chance to upset the Bills last week, thanks to some early scoring drives. However, he injured his pinky finger and wasn’t as effective after that. It’s unclear what Sanders’ outlook is for this game, but there’s a chance that his injury will be a non-factor.

If this is correct, then Sanders should have a decent game. He won’t face much of a pass rush, assuming T.J. Watt is sidelined once again. He’ll also be able to successfully target his tight ends, particularly Harold Fannin, because the Steelers are one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping tight ends.

One area in which the Browns won’t succeed is the running game. Quinshon Judkins is hurt, which isn’t even the biggest factor. That would be that the Steelers completely clamped down on Jahmyr Gibbs last week and figure to do the same against Cleveland’s ground attack.

RECAP: While Tomlin reaches the playoffs every year, he also tends to fall into horrible spots all the time. This is one of them, and the horrible spot in question is Tomlin being a road favorite following a win. Tomlin is a ghastly 15-32 against the spread when favored on the road following a victory. And remember, many of those games were with Ben Roethlisberger in his prime.

Despite Rodgers and others being great lately, but I don’t trust Pittsburgh. The Steelers don’t have their best player (Watt), while the offense has gone up against some sketchy defenses during their winning streak. The Browns are for real, and if they can limit Josh Allen to only 23 points, they can certainly clamp down on Pittsburgh.

I like the Browns in this game. I don’t want to bet too heavily on a possibly injured Sanders, though the Browns are the right side with the Steelers focused on next week’s game versus Baltimore.

Also, it’s worth noting that this game will be completely meaningless for the Steelers if the Ravens lose to the Packers on Saturday night, so we’ll have an update once that game goes final.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We’ll have an update on this game following the Baltimore contest to see if it means anything to Pittsburgh. Right now, it’s too difficult to handicap.

SATURDAY NOTES: How are the Steelers going to throw in this game? DK Metcalf is suspended, while Calvin Austin will also be sidelined. Meanwhile, the Browns will have Denzel Ward back from injury. The Browns look good, especially given that Mike Tomlin said that he would consider resting some starters if the Ravens lose. This is a pick I may lock in during the Ravens-Packers game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has soared because the Ravens won, with the sharps pounding Pittsburgh. This is music to my ears because we get to fade an overrated team without its top two receivers at a great price. The best line is +4.5 -108 at DraftKings. You can Get $250 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Browns.

The Steelers are coming off a big upset win versus the Lions, and they’ll take on the Ravens next week. They already blew out the Browns. This game could also mean nothing.

The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -4.5.

Computer Model: Steelers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Tons of action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 73% (81,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Steelers have won 41 of the last 51 meetings excluding a 2018 tie.

Aaron Rodgers is 141-104 ATS since 2009.

Steelers are 15-32 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.5.

Opening Total: 34.5.

Weather: Rain, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

Video of the Week: Can you spot the genius in this quiz show?

For a second, I thought it might be the Indian guy, but then I saw he was wearing a Lions jersey and realized it wasn’t him. Kidding, kidding!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Tyler Shough looked like he would be a bust following his ugly losses to the Rams and Falcons. However, he has gotten progressively better since. He was solid in two divisional upsets and then in a blowout win as a favorite over the Jets. Shough stalled a bunch once he got to the opposing 30 last week, but he eventually broke through and threw a touchdown pass to Chris Olave.

Shough will continue to improve with experience, but this is a tougher matchup than what he saw last week. The Jets have major problems defensively, while the Titans have gotten a big upgrade on this side of the ball ever since Jeffery Simmons returned from injury. Simmons has been dominant in the trenches, and he should be able to cause havoc for New Orleans’ young, erm, inexperienced quarterback.

It would be nice for Shough to have a backfield presence to make things easier for him. He didn’t have that last week unless you count Taysom Hill, though Hill didn’t have a positive performance to start the game. There was also Audric Estime, so Shough will be hoping to have Alvin Kamara’s support after Kamara’s long absence.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Like Shough, Cam Ward has improved during his rookie year, but he hasn’t been as consistently positive in recent weeks. Ward played well against the Chiefs, though it’s fair to say Kansas City wasn’t trying very hard.

The Saints will provide a much tougher challenge for Ward. New Orleans’ defense is ranked seventh in EPA over the past couple of months. The team generates tons of tackles for loss, and Ward holds the ball longer than any quarterback in the NFL. Ward saw no pass rush last week, but he’ll have defenders flooding his backfield in this contest.

Ward won’t be able to lean on Tony Pollard either. Pollard has run well recently, but the Saints have one of the top run-stuffing defenses in the league.

RECAP: Tennessee’s recent success – wins against the Browns and Chiefs – has given us a more favorable number than we would have gotten otherwise. The Saints are a tier better than the Titans, so a line of three or higher is probably warranted. Instead, we’re able to lay less than a field goal.

The Titans beat the Browns and Chiefs, but the Saints are better than both of them. New Orleans’ defense is for real, while Shough is emerging as a viable starting quarterback. If you’re considering backing the Titans as a home underdog, I urge you to recall how bad the Titans were prior to those wins. In between those games, they lost to the 49ers by 13, and before the Cleveland game, they were throttled by the Jaguars. And sure, the Saints were worse earlier in the year as well, but the defense has legitimately improved, and Shough is a clear upgrade over Spencer Rattler.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I could see myself locking in the Saints at -2.5 once the final injury report is published because the line could move to -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line isn’t budging anywhere. I wonder if the books are worried about the sharps coming in on the Titans at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Titans down to +1.5. I still like the Saints. The best line is -1.5 -110 in almost every sportsbook.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Saints.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -4.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.

Computer Model: Saints -4.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 53% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Titans are 31-23 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Saints -2.

Opening Total: 39.

Weather: Likely rain, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I thought there was a chance Baker Mayfield would be healthier last week because he had a mini-bye following the loss to the Falcons. Mayfield looked a bit better, but still wasn’t 100 percent. It seems unlikely that Mayfield will be significantly better in this contest.

Mayfield, however, has a tremendous matchup, so perhaps that will mask the injury. The Dolphins have a dreadful pass defense because of a lackluster pass rush and an injury-ravaged secondary. We just saw Joe Burrow torch the Dolphins with ease, so perhaps Mayfield will be able to do something similar. Obviously, Burrow is much better than Mayfield, but it’s still the same, easy matchup.

While the Buccaneers should have success throwing against Miami’s secondary, they won’t do as well while running the ball. The Dolphins just surrendered three rushing touchdowns to Chase Brown, but they’re ranked sixth against ground attacks.

MIAMI OFFENSE: There are tons of crappy quarterbacks starting this week, and the Dolphins are one of the teams that has one. Most other teams are going with these terrible quarterbacks as a result of injury, but the Dolphins are doing so by choice.

Quinn Ewers put together a nice drive against the Bengals, but floundered in the second half. This was one of the easiest matchups possible, yet Ewers looked mostly awful. The Buccaneers don’t have a very good defense, but they’re certainly better than the Bengals.

One big problem the Buccaneers have had on this side of the ball was that their run defense has worsened. Vita Vea is not 100 percent, so Tampa Bay’s ability to stop the rush has worsened. DeVon Achane will look to pick up where Chase Brown left off against the Dolphins last week, but the Buccaneers will have the luxury of playing closer to the line of scrimmage against Ewers than they did with Burrow.

RECAP: We faded Ewers successfully last week. I would love to do that again. Ewers is not a real NFL quarterback. He’s not going to be a viable backup quarterback like a Marcus Mariota or a Jacoby Brissett. He’s going to be in the NFL for a year or two, and the next time we hear from him, he’s either going to be an assistant coach or one of 55 analysts on College Game Day.

Ewers should be an automatic fade. There’s just one problem, and that would be backing the Buccaneers as 5.5-point favorites. The Buccaneers have lost to the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons recently, so who’s to say that they can beat anyone by six or more points right now? Furthermore, the Buccaneers are in an Aurora Snowmo situation. They will win the division if they win their next two games, so this is an obvious choking situation.

Under normal circumstances, I’d want to fade the Buccaneers in a situation like this, but I can’t bring myself to bet my somewhat hard-earned money on Ewers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still crazy to me that the Buccaneers are favored by 5.5 when they’ve been 1-6 in their previous seven games. They’ve lost at home to the Falcons and Saints, and yet they’re expected to beat the Dolphins by six? OK.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tristan Wirfs is out. If I had any faith in Quinn Ewers, I’d bet the Dolphins heavily because the Buccaneers don’t deserve to be six-point road favorites.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been heavy on the Dolphins. That’s not a surprise at all. The best line is +4.5 -102 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.

The Buccaneers are in an Aurora Snowmo situation.

The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -5.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.

Computer Model: Buccaneers -2.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Plenty of action on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 66% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 151-104 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Dolphins are 22-8 ATS as a home underdog after two straight losses the previous 30 instances.

Dolphins are 35-51 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -4.5.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Sunny, 79 degrees. Light wind.

The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It seems like most people don’t want to admit it, but the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the NFL. A big reason for that is Trevor Lawrence is playing out of his mind. Lawrence had some rocky moments earlier in the season, but has improved tremendously ever since Jakobi Meyers was fully integrated into the offense. Meyers is the first reliable receiver Lawrence has ever had. It also hasn’t hurt that Brian Thomas Jr. and Brenton Strange returned from injury.

Lawrence will continue his aerial assault in this game. The Colts have been missing their top two cornerbacks, and it doesn’t seem as though that’ll change on a short week. Brock Purdy just threw five touchdowns against these Colts, and it’s unlikely that Indianapolis will have anything solved on a short week.

A surprising element to the Monday game was that the Colts allowed chunks of yards on the ground to Christian McCaffrey. I thought they’d be better versus the run with DeForest Buckner in the lineup. Travis Etienne figures to pick up where McCaffrey left off in the Monday night blowout.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Something even more unexpected than McCaffrey’s rushing ability was Philip Rivers actually taking plenty of downfield shots. Rivers did nothing but dink and dunk against the Seahawks, but he opened things up versus San Francisco.

It was eventually obvious to see why Rivers did that. The 49ers, simply, did not put any pressure on Rivers, who had a clean pocket for most of the evening. San Francisco has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, so Rivers was kept clean for most of the game. That will not happen in this matchup. The Jaguars have a devastating pass rush that will rattle Rivers, especially if the Colts continue to miss some starting offensive linemen.

Rivers won’t be able to rely on Jonathan Taylor either. The 49ers have a quality run defense that was able to bottle up Taylor, and that could happen again in this game. The Jaguars have maintained the No. 1 run defense in the NFL over the past two months.

RECAP: I’m always down to fade bad teams coming off Monday Night Football. The premise is that they need more time than good teams to prepare for their next game, but they won’t get that with one fewer day. The Colts are obviously a bad team. Rivers is no longer a good quarterback, the defense surrenders far too much because of injuries, and the offensive line is missing multiple starters.

I already liked the Jaguars, so the disadvantage the Colts have in this game is only magnified. I’ve been betting on Jacksonville for quite some time now – including a Super Bowl futures bet on them at 20/1 – and I’m not going to stop now. Lawrence has way too big of an edge in this contest to ignore. And the defense will smother Rivers, unlike the 49ers.

At first glance, this spread of -6.5 may seem like too much, until you realize that this was effectively the opening line of San Francisco at Indianapolis. The Jaguars are definitely better than the 49ers, and they have the added preparation time advantage that San Francisco did not possess. The 49ers ended up beating the the Colts by three touchdowns, which could easily be the determining margin of victory in this game if there’s no pick-six to expand the score.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I love the Jaguars, but if you’re looking for a different perspective on this game, Andy Iskoe likes the Colts a lot:

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams could be missing their center. The Colts’ Tanor Bortolini, an excellent blocker, is definitely out. The Jaguars’ Robert Hainsey is questionable after barely practicing. I don’t know if this is why the sharps jumped on the Colts to take this line down to +5.5, but keep in mind that the sharps also bet the Colts against the 49ers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Like last week, the sharps are pounding the Colts as home underdogs. The pros were wrong Monday night. Will they be wrong again? Perhaps the sharps are pounding the Colts because the Jaguars will be missing two starting offensive linemen in Patrick Mekari and Robert Hainsey, though Mekari sucks. Hainsey is the center, but the Colts are also missing their center. The best line now is Jaguars -4 -107 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -9.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -4.5.

Computer Model: Jaguars -7.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Slight lean on the Jaguars early, but tons late.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 76% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Home Team has won 15 of the last 16 meetings.

Opening Line: Jaguars -6.5.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: I was texting with Scott Mason, who runs the great Jets podcast Play Like a Jet on Sunday night. He said he was hoping Brady Cook – whom we’ve dubbed as the Chef – would start the remainder of the games so the Jets would improve their draft positioning. I told him that I hoped the Chef would start again so we could bet against him once or twice more.

Some thought the Chef would hold his own against the Saints, but he did nothing but take sacks the entire afternoon. He took eight, to be exact. This was done by an underrated New Orleans front, but the Patriots have talent on the defensive line as well. They’ll be able to get to the Chef and turn him into mince meat.

The one hope the Jets have of moving the chains is via Breece Hall. The Patriots just surrendered more than 100 rushing yards to Derrick Henry, but were bailed out by a Baltimore coaching staff that forgot Henry was on the roster. The Patriots are 29th against the run in the past two months, but considering whom the Jets have under center, they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage and load the box.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The other reason the Jets may not be able to run the ball is if the Patriots go up two or three touchdowns and force the Jets to go pass-heavy. Given how poor New York’s defense has been, that’s a very real possibility.

The Jets rank 27th in defensive EPA. They don’t get to the quarterback all that often, and their secondary is a mess because of numerous injuries to their cornerbacks. The Jets also just surrendered a big game to Juwan Johnson, so the Patriots will be able to attack New York in every which way.

The Patriots will also be able to do some damage on the ground. The Jets have had issues defending the run, not only against opposing rushers, but also passers. The Jets have surrendered the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks, so Drake Maye will be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.

RECAP: We’re 2-for-2 in fading the Chef, and we’re going to be 3-for-3. The Patriots are the obvious play here, and frankly, I don’t care what the spread is. We are going to be betting New England no matter what.

OK, fine, obviously the spread matters. If this line were -49.5, I wouldn’t bet the Patriots. But the line is under two touchdowns, which just seems like a golden opportunity to accumulate generational wealth.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I look forward to accumulating generational wealth by betting against Brady Cook. Should be fun!

SATURDAY NOTES: The Patriots are missing some players like Kayshon Boutte, Harold Landry, and Robert Spillane, but none involve cluster injuries, so it’s still fine to bet New England at this number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: TreVeyon Henderson will play, giving us hope for the Offensive Rookie of the Year bet we have on him. The sharps have not touched this game. The best line is Patriots -13.5 -103 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -14.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -9.5.

Computer Model: Patriots -13.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on New England: 78% (66,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 38 of the last 46 meetings.

Mike Vrabel is 7-1 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Opening Line: Patriots -9.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Chance of rain, 32 degrees. Light wind.