2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Texans at Chargers

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I got some hate for my NFL Power Rankings:

This is just the tip of the iceberg, as many people were not thrilled with where I placed the Broncos.

I have never acted. What you see is the real deal.

We continued our exchange:

It’s true. This guy is jealous, too.

Here’s another post from Johna:

I don’t see what’s wrong with being dropped on the head six times. Seems like a normal number!

And here’s a guy specifically talking about the Broncos:

I miss my Orange Crush so dearly. That week we spent together back in the summer of ’12 was the happiest I’ve ever been in my life!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Both of these teams have had surprising results recently. Last week was Houston’s, as the Texans couldn’t move the ball whatsoever against a Raiders team that struggled all year. Then again, the Texans were playing in their final easy game of the year, so a letdown should have been expected.

The Texans will find it challenging to score again, but not because of lethargy this time. They’ll be going up against a dominant Chargers defense that has improved ever since Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman returned from injury. The Chargers place tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so C.J. Stroud will be under constant heat. He’ll also have to combat a talented secondary that won’t surrender much.

I mentioned Perryman in the previous paragraph, and he’s very noteworthy in this game because he has been suspended. Perryman is a force against the run, and the Chargers couldn’t stop opposing ground attacks earlier in the season when he was sidelined. Perhaps this will allow Woody Marks to explode for some big gains, assuming that he’s able to return from injury this week.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers’ surprising wins came against the defending Super Bowl participants. Beating the sorry Cowboys was expected, but they vanquished the Eagles and Chiefs despite missing both starting offensive linemen.

It seems unlikely that this will continue. At some point, the Chargers will pay for their horrible blocking, which is exactly what happened in the blowout loss to the Jaguars about a month ago. The anemic Charger tackles will be tasked with blocking a talented Houston defensive front. The Texans won this matchup last January when the Chargers had their offensive line intact, so it doesn’t seem like Justin Herbert will have any sort of protection.

Herbert won’t be held completely scoreless, of course. He’ll be able to make some clutch throws and move the sticks with his legs, but it’s going to be very difficult for him to sustain consistent drives against Houston’s dominant defensive front.

RECAP: The Texans crushed the Chargers in the playoffs last year. I wouldn’t expect such a lopsided affair in the rematch, but I still think the Texans will win again.

Houston owns the biggest mismatch in this game. Its stellar edge rushers will embarrass the Chargers’ backup tackles, which will prevent Herbert from posting too many points on the scoreboard. And while the Texans’ offense doesn’t have the best matchup, they’ll at least get a boost in the running game with Perryman being unavailable.

I’m siding with Houston, though I don’t think this will be much of a bet. There are so many better games on the card this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still have a slight lean toward the Texans, but I’m not looking to bet this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: We figured the Chargers would have tackle issues in this game. Trey Pipkins returning will help, but not so much against Houston’s edge rushers. However, the Texans have a problem at tackle as well. Trent Brown is out, while Aireontae Ersery barely practiced. If Ersery is out, that’s going to be a huge problem against the Charger edge rushers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As I feared for the Texans, Aireontae Ersery is out, meaning the Texans, like the Chargers, will be down their top two tackles. This should make the under look good for those who like to bet totals. Despite the injuries, the sharp money has come in on Houston. The best line is +1 -108 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -2.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.5.

Computer Model: Chargers -3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Decent action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 67% (132,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -1.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Dome.