2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Giants at Raiders

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: It seems so long ago now, but Jaxson Dart was once considered the favorite to be Offensive Rookie of the Year. He didn’t play in the first three games, but he took the league by storm with wins over the Chargers and Eagles. He also went toe to toe with the Broncos in Denver.

Things are much different now. Dart has not played well recently, and that’s putting it nicely. He was so bad last week that he threw for just 33 yards and didn’t complete his first pass until right before halftime. Granted, that was against the Vikings, and the Raiders have a much worse defense. However, the Redskins have the 31st-ranked defense, and Dart struggled to score against them as well.

The coaches would love for Dart to be able to lean on his rushing attack, given that they ran the ball so often last week. However, the Raiders are better against the run than the pass, so that strategy won’t work so well.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Ashton Jeanty is perhaps experiencing the opposite of Dart. While Dart was hot early before cooling off lately, Jeanty had a very poor start to his season, outside of his performance against the Raiders. But now, he’s coming off a tremendous performance against the Texans. Jeanty broke free for two long touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

If Jeanty was able to thrive against the Texans, things bode well for him against the Giants. New York has the worst run defense in the NFL, so Jeanty will be able to pick up big chunks of yardage at a time.

With Jeanty running well, Geno Smith will be able to operate in more favorable situations. Jeanty is having a terrible year, but it’s not often that he’s able to play in a favorable matchup like this. Also, there’s a chance Kolton Miller will finally be able to return from injury to enhance the Raiders’ horrendous offensive line.

RECAP: This game is a tale of two rookies. One started hot, but has been fading recently. The other struggled for most of the year, but is playing better now and has a very easy matchup.

I like the Raiders here, especially given that we’re getting them at basically a pick ’em. I don’t know why the Raiders are favored by just a point-and-a-half. The Giants even opened as road favorites, which is crazy. I can’t say I’m excited to bet this game, but fading the Giants feels like the right move.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Giants are now favored because Brock Bowers was placed on injured reserve. I don’t really care too much about that because Ashton Jeanty will probably dominate this game. It seems odd to favor Jaxson Dart on the road when he had just 33 passing yards last week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I had aspirations of betting the Raiders because the Giants were going to sit Andrew Thomas. Maxx Crosby even said he was going to fight for a win. Well, the Raiders heard that and sat Miller. Brock Bowers and Kolton Miller also won’t play. I’m back on the Giants, but won’t be betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I don’t know how you bet a game where both teams have an incentive to lose. There’s some pretty egregious tanking involved with both of these teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are pounding the Giants, taking them to -3. There’s suddenly some good value with the Raiders at +3, but I’m not going to take it. The best line is -3 -102 at both BetMGM and Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: None.

No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -2.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Giants -3.

Computer Model: Raiders -1.

The Vegas. Edge: None.

Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 56% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Raiders are 21-37 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Giants -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Dome.