2025 NFL Picks – Week 17: Seahawks at Panthers

The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks looked like they were going to lose to the Rams at home when they were down 30-14. The fans were booing Sam Darnold, and yet Seattle kept fighting and won impressively in overtime. Darnold was amazing in the fourth quarter, rebounding from an ugly performance against the Colts.

Darnold should continue to play well in this game. The Panthers don’t have much of a pass rush, so Darnold will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Panthers also struggle to cover tight ends, so someone like A.J. Barner should have a decent performance.

Of course, the Seahawks want to run the ball more than anything. Klint Kubiak will be in luck, as the rushing plays he’ll call will work for a change. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet figure to have some big gains against the Panthers’ 22nd-ranked run defense.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Bryce Young is one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the NFL. He can sometimes look like an anemic player who struggles because he can’t see over the line of scrimmage. We saw this in both Saints games. Then, he can have a brilliant performance against the Buccaneers.

I guess it’s not too much of a surprise that Young was far better against the Buccaneers than he was versus the Saints. New Orleans’ defense is ranked seventh, after all, while Tampa Bay’s is 30th. The Seahawks are obviously closer to the Saints. In fact, they have the No. 1 EPA defense in the NFL over the past two months. They have a devastating pass rush and a sticky secondary that will make Young’s life miserable.

Making matters worse for Young is that he won’t be able to lean on his usually solid rushing attack. The Seahawks rank second versus the run, so they shouldn’t have an issue containing Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard.

RECAP: The Seahawks are the much better team, and if you told me that they would be completely focused in this game, I would bet them for a healthy amount. However, this spot is incredibly poor. Not only are the Seahawks coming off a grueling overtime game versus the Rams where they engineered their greatest fourth-quarter comeback in franchise history; they take on the 11-4 49ers after this contest. Also, even if the Seahawks win this game, they’ll likely lose out on the division and the No. 1 seed if they suffer a loss to the 49ers in Week 18.

So, this has to be a play on the Panthers, right? Perhaps, but keep this in mind: If the Panthers win this game, they’ll still lose the division if they suffer a loss to the Buccaneers in Week 18. The only way this doesn’t happen is if the Buccaneers also lose to the Dolphins this week. Given that the Buccaneers-Dolphins and Seahawks-Panthers games fire at the same time, Carolina won’t know what will happen to the Buccaneers, save for live score updates throughout the afternoon.

Given the complexity of this situation, I’d recommend staying away from this game entirely.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Again, this is a tough game to handicap because it may not mean anything to the Panthers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing on the injury report really stands out. This is still a slight lean to the Seahawks.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have taken the Panthers at +7. This line has moved to +6.5 in some books, but +7 is still available at FanDuel and Caesars. The best line for Seattle is -6.5 -112 at Bookmaker. You can Bet on WalterFootball’s favorite sportsbook, Bookmaker by clicking the link.

The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.

The Seahawks are coming off a huge comeback win against the Rams in overtime, and after this game, they will take on the 49ers.

The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -8.5.

Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.5.

Computer Model: Seahawks -7.5.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

Slight lean on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 62% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 11-19 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.

Opening Line: Seahawks -7.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.